*IF* The Gophers win out, do they make the playoffs?

If the Gophers win out, do they make the playoffs?

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StudentSectionMenace

StudentSectionMenace

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Projected resume:
9-3 record
7-2 Big Ten record
3-1 vs top 25 (two would be top 11 wins)
Blowout loss to Iowa at home
3 point loss to ranked Michigan on the road
2 point loss to UNC in the first game of the year


***Not saying this is likely, just thought it was fun bye week discussion***
 


I think there would still be too many Big Ten teams ahead of the Gophers in the pecking order.

For sure 3 Big Ten teams will make the playoffs (outside shot of 4). Almost no scenario would include a 3-loss Big Ten team.

Ohio State, Oregon are near locks. Penn State is likely. Indiana (somehow) is likely in the conversation. Then Iowa has a favorable schedule, Illinois could be the mix.

Fun topic, though.

Someday, there might be a 9-3 Big Ten to make the playoffs. It would have to be a unique year and the 9-3 team would probably have to be Michigan/Ohio State/USC/PSU, etc.
 




Well, let's see...

The question the OP asked was if the Gophers win out, would they make the playoffs?

I'd say only if two very unlikely things happened:

1) A 9-3 record would somehow be good enough to get to the B1G championship (that's a big, big if), and...

2) The Gophers would have to then spring an upset in that game and win it.

If those two unlikely events both occurred, the Gophers would be 10-3 and B1G Champs. In that scenario, I am pretty sure the 2024 B1G Champion would go to the playoffs, even if they had 3 losses.
 

MN would have 2 conference losses and 3 total losses. In no scenario would they be ranked high enough at the end of the regular season to get an at-large bid.

All these things would need to happen:
- Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio State (all 1 loss) would need to have 2 more losses. Very low probability of this.
- MN would hypothetically have a head to head wins over PSU so they would need another loss.
- Indiana would probably need 3 conference losses and Nebraska would probably need 2 more losses (both of those will happen, and no, I'm not going to look up the schedule for common opponents).
- This assumes Oregon doesn't implode and get to 3 losses. If they implode, one of the above wouldn't need to happen.

All these and probably more are needed to put MN into the conference title game which they would need to win to get the qualifier to the CFP.

So what's the probability of the above happening as of today? Less than 1%?
 


Panthadad2 said:
MN would have 2 conference losses and 3 total losses. In no scenario would they be ranked high enough at the end of the regular season to get an at-large bid.

All these things would need to happen:
- Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio State (all 1 loss) would need to have 2 more losses. Very low probability of this.
- MN would hypothetically have a head to head wins over PSU so they would need another loss.
- Indiana would probably need 3 conference losses and Nebraska would probably need 2 more losses (both of those will happen, and no, I'm not going to look up the schedule for common opponents).
- This assumes Oregon doesn't implode and get to 3 losses. If they implode, one of the above wouldn't need to happen.

All these and probably more are needed to put MN into the conference title game which they would need to win to get the qualifier to the CFP.

So what's the probability of the above happening as of today? Less than 1%?
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This is spot on, in my opinion. The sheer number of stars that would have to come into alignment is daunting.

By the same token, there does appear to be a bit more NFL-style parity in college football these days. The teams at the top of the B1G still have to play more than a few games against each other. And upsets do occasionally occur.
 



RememberMurray said:
This is spot on, in my opinion. The sheer number of stars that would have to come into alignment is daunting.

By the same token, there does appear to be a bit more NFL-style parity in college football these days. The teams at the top of the B1G still have to play more than a few games against each other. And upsets do occasionally occur.
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Agreed. The conference standings will look a lot different by the end of November.
 

They would be in the conversation if MAYBE two special teams plays went the other way this season. Missed FG vs UNC and Blocked Punt vs Michigan.
 


RememberMurray said:
Well, let's see...

The question the OP asked was if the Gophers win out, would they make the playoffs?

I'd say only if two very unlikely things happened:

1) A 9-3 record would somehow be good enough to get to the B1G championship (that's a big, big if), and...

2) The Gophers would have to then spring an upset in that game and win it.

If those two unlikely events both occurred, the Gophers would be 10-3 and B1G Champs. In that scenario, I am pretty sure the 2024 B1G Champion would go to the playoffs, even if they had 3 losses.
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Cc are autobids so yes they would be in
 



GridironGus said:
They would be in the conversation if MAYBE two special teams plays went the other way this season. Missed FG vs UNC and Blocked Punt vs Michigan.
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Excellent point!

Another special teams play that was crucial: the onside kick against Michigan. If the play had been (correctly) ruled, the Gophers would have had the ball in excellent field position and the momentum, which was at that point already rolling in Minnesota's favor, would have been overwhelming. Michigan would have felt as if they were on the ropes.

The onside kick recovery was made at the Michigan 39 yard line with 1:37 remaining and with Minnesota still having one timeout. A Gopher field would have tied the game and probably led to overtime (again, with huge momentum in the Gopher's favor), and a touchdown would almost certainly have won that game.
 

Simple answer is no. Would be too many bad losses on the schedule. A 9-3 is only getting in if they win a CC or their losses are all to top 25 caliber teams. That UNC loss would be too much baggage even if we run the table
 

Yes, but for two special team blunders: (1) if we make just one of the two missed FGs against UNC, and (2) don't yield a blocked punt deep in Michigan's red zone, winning out would definitely put us in the Playoffs. (Sorry, this point already made earlier, while I was typing). Amazing to think that these two early-season special teams missteps--even with the on-side kick jobbing at Michigan--would be so important, so determinative. Same team, same players, same coaches, same offense, same defense, same game plans ... and we'd be ranked and rolling.

PJ's special teams almost always contribute negatively to the Gophers' expected point totals. This year the big problem is Kesich, of all people. Crawford is good at pinning teams deep, but when we need the field flipped he just doesn't have that automatic 55+ yard punt in his legs. At least we've got one ST positive: Koi. We, I, tend to focus on offense and defense, but our special teams rarely win us a game yet are often instrumental in a loss. This season is no different. Might be a big factor in why we won't win out ...
 

There's always mathematical ways to qualify for the Big Ten title game with 2 losses so it's not over-over, but it's probably not happening.

I'm realistically hoping for 7-5 and a win in at least one of Illinois, Penn State, or Wisconsin.
 

I personally think it would be a very long shot, but with how this season has gone, I could see a couple 9-3 teams sneak into the playoffs. The one benefit that the Gophers would have over others is that their losses are early in the season so wouldn't be a sour taste on their mouth like a late November loss would be. However, I don't think our strength of schedule is tough enough to justify 3 losses. Like many of you, I am just hoping to make a bowl game, but just thought it was a fun thought.
 

At some point, a 3-loss team will make it into the playoffs, but it will take a lot of things lining up to make that happen: no dominant teams - all the top teams beat each other up in conference play. or a team starts slow and loses its non-conf games, then gets hot and wins its conference for an AQ bid.

so it's possible. but this year - doesn't look likely.

at this point of the season, there are 2 teams in the top 25 with two losses - Ole Miss (5-2) and Michigan (4-2). there are 5 B1G teams with 0 losses or 1 loss in the top 25.
 

To the above on special teams blunders costing a couple games, it's weird that PFF has the Gophers currently as #2 rated in the BG10. They must not weight impact plays.
 

Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa say no.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Yes, but for two special team blunders: (1) if we make just one of the two missed FGs against UNC, and (2) don't yield a blocked punt deep in Michigan's red zone, winning out would definitely put us in the Playoffs. (Sorry, this point already made earlier, while I was typing). Amazing to think that these two early-season special teams missteps--even with the on-side kick jobbing at Michigan--would be so important, so determinative. Same team, same players, same coaches, same offense, same defense, same game plans ... and we'd be ranked and rolling.

PJ's special teams almost always contribute negatively to the Gophers' expected point totals. This year the big problem is Kesich, of all people. Crawford is good at pinning teams deep, but when we need the field flipped he just doesn't have that automatic 55+ yard punt in his legs. At least we've got one ST positive: Koi. We, I, tend to focus on offense and defense, but our special teams rarely win us a game yet are often instrumental in a loss. This season is no different. Might be a big factor in why we won't win out ...
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After reading this, I now understand why PJ keeps saying "Our margins are razor thin"
 

I say no, especially if it comes down to committee decision.
They left out an undefeated P4 team last year (FSU).
 

RememberMurray said:
Excellent point!

Another special teams play that was crucial: the onside kick against Michigan. If the play had been (correctly) ruled, the Gophers would have had the ball in excellent field position and the momentum, which was at that point already rolling in Minnesota's favor, would have been overwhelming. Michigan would have felt as if they were on the ropes.

The onside kick recovery was made at the Michigan 39 yard line with 1:37 remaining and with Minnesota still having one timeout. A Gopher field would have tied the game and probably led to overtime (again, with huge momentum in the Gopher's favor), and a touchdown would almost certainly have won that game.
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We would not have needed the field goal and OT. We had scored TDs on last three possessions. The odds of Michigan stopping us were slight.

The incompetent officiating was not as bad as the NCAA having a rule saying certain game changing mistakes by officials are not reviewable. That is insane and takes away a lot of credibility from the college game.
 

StudentSectionMenace said:
I personally think it would be a very long shot, but with how this season has gone, I could see a couple 9-3 teams sneak into the playoffs. The one benefit that the Gophers would have over others is that their losses are early in the season so wouldn't be a sour taste on their mouth like a late November loss would be. However, I don't think our strength of schedule is tough enough to justify 3 losses. Like many of you, I am just hoping to make a bowl game, but just thought it was a fun thought.
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Anybody running the table in their last seven games has a leg up on teams with comparable records.
 



StudentSectionMenace said:
Projected resume:
9-3 record
7-2 Big Ten record
3-1 vs top 25 (two would be top 11 wins)
Blowout loss to Iowa at home
3 point loss to ranked Michigan on the road
2 point loss to UNC in the first game of the year


***Not saying this is likely, just thought it was fun bye week discussion***
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You have the same dreams as I.
 

I voted no, but I don't know exactly how the playoff field will be laid out. In the past, a very bad loss (North Carolina) would be a season ender. Now there is some hope that even with that loss could we recover enough?

I think 10-2 with losses to Iowa and Michigan would give us a decent chance. That North Carolina loss looks worse every week. I don't think 9-3 is good enough to get in, but it depends how other teams shake out as well.
 

Currently the polls are running with 15 SEC/B1G teams roughly each week. Only 6-8 can realistically make it. There is still going to be bias in the polls. Conference will be lucky to get a 4th team after Oregon, tOSU and PSU unless it's a 1 loss Indiana, Nebraska, or Illinois team.

I'd love to see 7-3 MN host 10-0 PSU in November.
 

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