How pessimistic can I be?

Rosemountian

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Without being labeled a troll?

Can I go into this season expecting only 4 or maybe 5 wins and not get harassed.


If this team has no injuries and catches some breaks they have a shot at 7.



But quite frankly this team is very thin. Especially thin at key positions. We also have a coach who was outcoached as often as he outcoached (at least last year). The non-conference schedule is a bit easier, but the way the home/road schedule breaks I think the conference portion is tougher.

If Gray doesn't stay healthy it'll be a long year. And the problem is, to be successful they probably are going to need gray to carry the football often.

Is this an acceptable viewpoint on gopherhole at this point?
 

How pessimistic can I be? Ambiguous question...You are always pessimistic.

Without being labeled a troll? There are worse things.

Can I go into this season expecting only 4 or maybe 5 wins and not get harassed. You always get harassed.


If this team has no injuries and catches some breaks they have a shot at 7. If's are not good predictors of future events.



But quite frankly this team is very thin. Especially thin at key positions. We also have a coach who was outcoached as often as he outcoached (at least last year). The non-conference schedule is a bit easier, but the way the home/road schedule breaks I think the conference portion is tougher.

If Gray doesn't stay healthy it'll be a long year. And the problem is, to be successful they probably are going to need gray to carry the football often. Another "If..."

Is this an acceptable viewpoint on gopherhole at this point? NO.
 

Is it really pessimism all the time?

I have said things like Moses couldn't play big ten football. Was that pessimism? Or realism?

Last year I was actually optimistic I think. I was thinking 5-6 wins going into the year. (was thinking 6-6 (3-5) with wins over 3 of northwestern, purdue, Illinois, and Iowa.
 

Without being labeled a troll?

Can I go into this season expecting only 4 or maybe 5 wins and not get harassed.


If this team has no injuries and catches some breaks they have a shot at 7.



But quite frankly this team is very thin. Especially thin at key positions. We also have a coach who was outcoached as often as he outcoached (at least last year). The non-conference schedule is a bit easier, but the way the home/road schedule breaks I think the conference portion is tougher.

If Gray doesn't stay healthy it'll be a long year. And the problem is, to be successful they probably are going to need gray to carry the football often.

Is this an acceptable viewpoint on gopherhole at this point?

You've got a lot to learn my friend. This brand of opinion(s) is not generally accepted on this web site. GopherHole was created to promote University of Minnesota athletics, and most opinions not in-line with the site's glowing Minnesota philosophy will get you in some trouble. Most people on here believe stars don't matter when recruiting (of course), that Wisconsin has a horrible athletics program (of course) and that within a couple years all the under-the-radar prospects will buck the trend, become the exception to the rule and put this program over the top. RECRUITING DOESN'T MATTER. STARS DON'T MATTER. SCOUT.COM AND RIVALS.COM DON'T MATTER. It's all about solid WRs from Rochester Community College and big farm boys.

Personally, I like Jerry Kill. I think he is a phenomenal person and has overcome odds in his life that should garner everyone's respect. Does he belong coaching in the B1G? No one really knows. He did pretty well at N. Illinois, but has never been known as a top-tier recruiter. I also think this program will someday get back to the middle of the pack. Every dog has his day. Heck, Northwestern made the Rose Bowl in my lifetime, Purdue had a couple good seasons with Drew Brees and Indiana, well, Indiana sucks. Either way, there is zero possibility that the Gophers football program remains this terrible for the long haul. Somehow, some way, Kill (or whoever) needs to attract top-flight players. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT WIN WITH 2 AND 3 STAR RECRUITS CONSISTENTLY.
 

I don't dislike kill. I am on the record saying I think he can get us back to glen mason like levels if we give him 4+ years.

I agree that I'm not sure he can take you over the top in the big ten. But honestly, if you are the gophers your goal for a big ten title at this point shouldn't be to bring in a dynasty builder. It should be to bring in a guy who makes you respectable with hopes he catches lightning in a bottle (see wake forest, northwestern, purdue). After you get one worry about being Iowa or Wisconsin.
 


MaroonGopher said:
You've got a lot to learn my friend. This brand of opinion(s) is not generally accepted on this web site. GopherHole was created to promote University of Minnesota athletics, and most opinions not in-line with the site's glowing Minnesota philosophy will get you in some trouble. Most people on here believe stars don't matter when recruiting (of course), that Wisconsin has a horrible athletics program (of course) and that within a couple years all the under-the-radar prospects will buck the trend, become the exception to the rule and put this program over the top. RECRUITING DOESN'T MATTER. STARS DON'T MATTER. SCOUT.COM AND RIVALS.COM DON'T MATTER. It's all about solid WRs from Rochester Community College and big farm boys.

Personally, I like Jerry Kill. I think he is a phenomenal person and has overcome odds in his life that should garner everyone's respect. Does he belong coaching in the B1G? No one really knows. He did pretty well at N. Illinois, but has never been known as a top-tier recruiter. I also think this program will someday get back to the middle of the pack. Every dog has his day. Heck, Northwestern made the Rose Bowl in my lifetime, Purdue had a couple good seasons with Drew Brees and Indiana, well, Indiana sucks. Either way, there is zero possibility that the Gophers football program remains this terrible for the long haul. Somehow, some way, Kill (or whoever) needs to attract top-flight players. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT WIN WITH 2 AND 3 STAR RECRUITS CONSISTENTLY.

Way to generalize. And incorrectly so, since I think most people on here agree that recruiting matters. That aside...of course Jerry Kill is not known as a top tier recruiter, did you expect him to be pulling in 4 and 5 star players at Northern Illinois? Southern? Etc? In my opinion he did a good job last year keeping the top in state guys, but he will have to continue that and improve for us to be a contender.
 

Rosemountian said:
Without being labeled a troll?

Can I go into this season expecting only 4 or maybe 5 wins and not get harassed.

If this team has no injuries and catches some breaks they have a shot at 7.

But quite frankly this team is very thin. Especially thin at key positions. We also have a coach who was outcoached as often as he outcoached (at least last year). The non-conference schedule is a bit easier, but the way the home/road schedule breaks I think the conference portion is tougher.

If Gray doesn't stay healthy it'll be a long year. And the problem is, to be successful they probably are going to need gray to carry the football often.

Is this an acceptable viewpoint on gopherhole at this point?

Being a troll has nothing to do with optimism or pessimism. It's when someone makes smart @ss remarks that make it clear that they are actually a Badger or Hawkeye fan (Pantherhawk-esque).
 

Without being labeled a troll?

Can I go into this season expecting only 4 or maybe 5 wins and not get harassed.


If this team has no injuries and catches some breaks they have a shot at 7.



But quite frankly this team is very thin. Especially thin at key positions. We also have a coach who was outcoached as often as he outcoached (at least last year). The non-conference schedule is a bit easier, but the way the home/road schedule breaks I think the conference portion is tougher.

If Gray doesn't stay healthy it'll be a long year. And the problem is, to be successful they probably are going to need gray to carry the football often.

Is this an acceptable viewpoint on gopherhole at this point?

I think the vast majority of fans, probably 90+%, would predict between 4-7 wins this year.
 

Way to generalize. And incorrectly so, since I think most people on here agree that recruiting matters. That aside...of course Jerry Kill is not known as a top tier recruiter, did you expect him to be pulling in 4 and 5 star players at Northern Illinois? Southern? Etc? In my opinion he did a good job last year keeping the top in state guys, but he will have to continue that and improve for us to be a contender.


Call it generalizing but the fact remains Kill needs to do better than a "good job" to win in the Big 10. He needs to at least to bring in 3 to 5 four star prospects EVERY class. Bottom line. You cannot win -- WITH CONSISTENCY -- with lesser-regarded recruits than your opponent. Kill won't obviously bring in players like Michigan, Ohio State, Baylor, Florida, Auburn, North Carolina, Texas, Alabama, LSU, etc. But his average classes need to be mainly high 3 stars with half a dozen 4 stars sprinkled in. And to answer your question, no, I did not expect Kill to bring in 4/5 star guys at Northern Illinois.
 



Kill has been on campus 19 months now? He was out coached last year? You can't win without star recruits?(tell that to TCU and BSU) He had to implement a whole new scheme, bring discipline to a program, ect. I wouldn't trade Kill and his long term staff for BB and all new staff now. 6-7 wins this year and building a program with a solid foundation going forward. Tuff division? Yes. Heck BB is one NCAA phone call from having to beat Purdue for it's division but that's OK. Gotta love the instant gratification internet age. Turn it around in 2 years or You suck.
 

We have one year of results to judge Kill on for his Minnesota tenure, a 3-9 (2-6) campaign. I won't place a label on his tenure yet, it's too soon for me. But I also cannot say with confidence that he and his staff will be a success here. I don't have a big enough sample size yet. Time will tell. I will say that I desperately want him to succeed.

FWIW I expect 4-5 wins this year and have seen many others predict the same here.
 

Without being labeled a troll?

Can I go into this season expecting only 4 or maybe 5 wins and not get harassed.

Is this an acceptable viewpoint on gopherhole at this point?

What a bunch of B.S.!

There's all sorts of doubt, skepticism, and pessimism expressed by folks here. People might disagree with and debate them, but nobody is calling them a troll. Hell, being a Gopher fan you wouldn't be normal without expecting the worse at times.

But if you're worried about being called a "troll" I'm guessing you're one of the clowns last fall who panicked after the first few games. You were not only absolutely sure Kill couldn't coach, but you were convinced that you knew more about coaching and motivating players than he did and didn't hesitate to tell us how you did it.
 

You've got a lot to learn my friend. This brand of opinion(s) is not generally accepted on this web site. GopherHole was created to promote University of Minnesota athletics, and most opinions not in-line with the site's glowing Minnesota philosophy will get you in some trouble. Most people on here believe stars don't matter when recruiting (of course), that Wisconsin has a horrible athletics program (of course) and that within a couple years all the under-the-radar prospects will buck the trend, become the exception to the rule and put this program over the top. RECRUITING DOESN'T MATTER. STARS DON'T MATTER. SCOUT.COM AND RIVALS.COM DON'T MATTER. It's all about solid WRs from Rochester Community College and big farm boys.

Personally, I like Jerry Kill. I think he is a phenomenal person and has overcome odds in his life that should garner everyone's respect. Does he belong coaching in the B1G? No one really knows. He did pretty well at N. Illinois, but has never been known as a top-tier recruiter. I also think this program will someday get back to the middle of the pack. Every dog has his day. Heck, Northwestern made the Rose Bowl in my lifetime, Purdue had a couple good seasons with Drew Brees and Indiana, well, Indiana sucks. Either way, there is zero possibility that the Gophers football program remains this terrible for the long haul. Somehow, some way, Kill (or whoever) needs to attract top-flight players. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT WIN WITH 2 AND 3 STAR RECRUITS CONSISTENTLY.

Yeah... Its not like Wisconsin, TCU or Boise State won with a roster full of mainly two or three star recruits.....
 



You've got a lot to learn my friend. This brand of opinion(s) is not generally accepted on this web site. GopherHole was created to promote University of Minnesota athletics, and most opinions not in-line with the site's glowing Minnesota philosophy will get you in some trouble. Most people on here believe stars don't matter when recruiting (of course), that Wisconsin has a horrible athletics program (of course) and that within a couple years all the under-the-radar prospects will buck the trend, become the exception to the rule and put this program over the top. RECRUITING DOESN'T MATTER. STARS DON'T MATTER. SCOUT.COM AND RIVALS.COM DON'T MATTER. It's all about solid WRs from Rochester Community College and big farm boys.

Personally, I like Jerry Kill. I think he is a phenomenal person and has overcome odds in his life that should garner everyone's respect. Does he belong coaching in the B1G? No one really knows. He did pretty well at N. Illinois, but has never been known as a top-tier recruiter. I also think this program will someday get back to the middle of the pack. Every dog has his day. Heck, Northwestern made the Rose Bowl in my lifetime, Purdue had a couple good seasons with Drew Brees and Indiana, well, Indiana sucks. Either way, there is zero possibility that the Gophers football program remains this terrible for the long haul. Somehow, some way, Kill (or whoever) needs to attract top-flight players. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT WIN WITH 2 AND 3 STAR RECRUITS CONSISTENTLY.


Ok, we'll take this one-by-one, I suppose.

(1) That brand of opinion is pretty well accepted. Predicting between 4-7 wins sounds about right in the average around here. I'd guess it would be a pretty evenly distributed bell curve around that range.

(2) There are countless posts ripping on MN athletics. There aren't too many right now with Kill because we were all in the "honeymoon" phase. But generally, there are times when it gets negative on Gopherhole. Did you happen to check out the basketball boards during rough times with Tubby over the past couple years? Were you around here during the end of the Brewster tenure? Was that overly positive? Furthermore, one of the most common trends on here was to absolutely blast Maturi...the AD.

(3) The stars convo is a long running debate....meaning people have differing opinions. I've read a lot of posters on here that are Gopher fans who definitely believe stars matter and some that don't. It's a debate. Your characterization of the whole website turning on anyone who wants to see improved recruiting, even improved recruiting according to Rivals is overly sensitve and wrong.

(4) I don't think I've ever heard anyone on here say that WI has a terrible athletics program. I know I hate WI and most other GHers do as well, but they obviosly have had success in football and basketball recently.

(5) Now here is the debate about recruiting, you said that he did well at Northern Illinois but has never been known as a top-tier recruiter. Well, we could argue that his teams at Northern Illinois were some of the best recruited teams in the MAC right? I mean...recruiting is succesful if you have talented players...right? Will he be able to recruit and coach enough here? Who knows? BTW...who was a big farm boy last recruiting cycle (or this one)? Pirsig? Probably our 2nd or 3rd highest RATED player?

(6) Getting top-flight players isn't how Mason turned it around. He simply won with 2 and 3 star recruits consistently. I don't think that model is ideal, I'd way rather have a higher rated class. However, there is something to being a good judge of talent, having a system, and recruiting to that system. Will it work? Again...who knows. It's a difficult task to turn around a football program.
 

anyone who was in the stands in the 2011 season understands that a 1-11 season is possible. Just show up if you can and yell when the opponent has a 3rd down.
 

I am a little pessimistic about this season as well. There were some really ugly games last year (New Mexico State, NDSU, Michigan & Purdue all come to mind). While I am certain that the players will be understand the system better and the coaches will be able to game plan better (having a better understanding of the resources they have), I just don't see a huge upgrade in talent.

Anything greater than 3 wins will be an improvement over last year. Obviously, this year's nonconference schedule lacks a team like USC, so I am certain that we'll do better than last year's 1-3 in the OOC games. Heck, we may even go 4-0. The conference games will be the real measuring stick. I will be very pleased is we can find 3 or more W's this year.

The saying that comes to mind is, "Expect the worst and hope for the best."

With that in mind, I am expecting 3-1 in OOC games and 1 or 2 conference wins. I am hoping for a 7-6 season (with the 7th win coming in late December).
 

Be as pessimistic as you want man. Free Country.

It's just that we still don't know enough to make educated judgements about Kill and how his future here will play out.

I expect 5 or 6 wins, and i'd consider myself quite positive.

A few bits I've gathered and formed opinions of Kill on.

-His track record stands as fact. it's a fact he's won everywhere he's been, building programs from lesser parts and eventually winning big consistently. Not in the BIG granted, but he has beaten 3 BIG teams before coming here us in 2010, Purdue in 09, and Indiana in 06.

-His recruiting certainly doesn't make the services jump around, rankings and stars aside, his recruiting will stand on it's own when the players mature and either win or lose as a group. I for one think several prospects were ungodly underrated by the services last year, mostly the in state kids like Pirsig/Nelson/Williams/Hayes etc.
It seems to me that Kill is simply trying to stock the program with functional bodies who may be solid contributors in 3-5 years, as you said the program is thin.

-Gray going down changes everything, although Shortell will likely be improved.

Anyone EXPECTING 7-8 wins is not looking at the picture clearly, and anyone thinking they KNOW how Kill will end up here is also not being honest.

My take is that we are seeing a stabilization phase here, one that is well thought out and has been communicated to Pres Kaler and Teague.

Kill is going to get the program to the point where we hit 6-7 wins every year, and then take some calculated chances and reach for some hit or miss recruits/games/lightning in a bottle moments. The type of chances/moments Mason never tryed for.
If he fails, the program will be steady enough to handle a hit or a down year, if he gets a 5* recruit, or beats a ranked Michigan team in a game that matters, or smears wisky at Camp Randall then we will see a bump in visibility parlayed into more recruiting/positive momentum etc. Down the road sustained winning will allow for more good seasons than bad, and a better chance of hitting a jackpot and winning our way to Pasedena.
 

I think .500 would be a realistic goal, but like I was going into last season, I'll be more interested to see "how" they play rather than "if" they win. The team showed dramatic improvement in discipline and football smarts down the stretch and hopefully they can build on that. There's still probably a bit of a talent gap (at least talent in the position to be consistently applied), but if they play well and progress through the season, the light will be brighter for me. This is clearly not a team that can mail it in.
 

I didnt panic after the first few games. I did start to become not impressed after Michigan and purdue (in my opinion the two most embarrassing performances of the past 10 years....at least when Iowa beat us 55-0 we showed up the first quarter)
What a bunch of B.S.!

There's all sorts of doubt, skepticism, and pessimism expressed by folks here. People might disagree with and debate them, but nobody is calling them a troll. Hell, being a Gopher fan you wouldn't be normal without expecting the worse at times.

But if you're worried about being called a "troll" I'm guessing you're one of the clowns last fall who panicked after the first few games. You were not only absolutely sure Kill couldn't coach, but you were convinced that you knew more about coaching and motivating players than he did and didn't hesitate to tell us how you did it.
 

By the way this was a troll thread title and I'm glad the response has been what it is.
 

Seen too many 3rd-18s converted on the Gophs to get to optimistic.
 

Starting this thread makes you a troll. ;)Your prediction on wins is in the ballpark with most of us. IMO. It is way too early to make a judgement on Kill and the state of the program. I tend to be a little less patient with Tubby.
 

Don't sleep on Teague and the Prez either. IMHO they both sorely want winning athletic programs especially in football and men's basketball. It's my firm belief that they will both do everything in their power on their side to achieve that. They've made it clear publicly that they will do what it takes to make the U a winner again.
 

We have 3 non conference games we should win, 1 that is even, and 4 conference games that we should be competitive in. Expecting the Gophers to sweep all of the competitive games, is a bit much, as is losing all of them. I expect that they will 6-6, winning all 3 should wins, and going 3-2, in the competitive games. The game at Iowa, and how we play, will be a big factor in how the season goes. Winning the first three non conference games should be just a matter of discipline after that we'll find out how well the Kill system is taking hold.
 

The glass is 3/4 full!

The team showed dramatic improvement in discipline and football smarts down the stretch

This. The team played so poorly in the early games they were almost unwatchable. But the light started to go on in the middle of the season. They beat Iowa just because they were mentally tough. Iowa ran all over them the first half but the team didn't quit, hung around, and came back for the win. I think Illinois knew Zook was going to be fired but never-the-less they played pretty well that game.

Playing well, mental toughness, a stable offensive line, a new and good looking running back, Hageman and Cockren, an improved secondary, a smarter quarterback who is a more consistent passer, maybe a diamond or two in the rough from one of the new players - all of these things put together can take the Gophers a long way.

I say 8-4 or 7-5. If Gray goes down 5-7. I thought Max looked pretty good in the spring game - good enough that there is no way they take the redshirt off Nelson this year.
 

Why do people keep bringing up TCU and Boise State? TCU has brought in 7 four-star recruits in the last two classes alone. That's how Minnesota should do it. Forget about the five-star guys, focus on getting a a least 3 or 4 solid four-star guys every class and fill in the rest with three-star prospects. You can't win consistenly when the team across from you has better players. You'll get lucky sometimes, but the lifeblood of any college football program is recruiting. Get better, higher ranked players than your opponents and you will win. Guarenteed.
 

Why do people keep bringing up TCU and Boise State? TCU has brought in 7 four-star recruits in the last two classes alone. That's how Minnesota should do it. Forget about the five-star guys, focus on getting a a least 3 or 4 solid four-star guys every class and fill in the rest with three-star prospects. You can't win consistenly when the team across from you has better players. You'll get lucky sometimes, but the lifeblood of any college football program is recruiting. Get better, higher ranked players than your opponents and you will win. Guarenteed.

Um, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I'll bet Kill sort of knows that. There is also no reason for most of those guys to want to come here right now unless there are issues that limit their choices. Not wanting to gamble on those issues, he's going for character. Over-simplified I know, but I like his approach and those higher rated recruits will eventually come. Whether or not he can pull it off, no one knows for sure.
 

Why do people keep bringing up TCU and Boise State? TCU has brought in 7 four-star recruits in the last two classes alone. That's how Minnesota should do it. Forget about the five-star guys, focus on getting a a least 3 or 4 solid four-star guys every class and fill in the rest with three-star prospects. You can't win consistenly when the team across from you has better players. You'll get lucky sometimes, but the lifeblood of any college football program is recruiting. Get better, higher ranked players than your opponents and you will win. Guarenteed.

Patterson started in TCU in 2000. From 2002-2008, TCU got 6 total 4* recruits according to rivals, and the majority of the recruits he had gotten were 2*, and They were averaging about 10 wins during that time. TCU was not getting 4 star players consistently until after they went to the Fiesta Bowl in 2009. They went 12-1 in 2009 and 13-0 in 2010 with 3 4* players on the depth chart.

So that is why people bring up TCU. Because Kill and Patterson follow a similar coaching philosophy. I know Kill is trying this in the BIG and not the MWC, but TCU has been pretty dominant the past decade with "poor" recruiting classes according to the experts.
 

Patterson started in TCU in 2000. From 2002-2008, TCU got 6 total 4* recruits according to rivals, and the majority of the recruits he had gotten were 2*, and They were averaging about 10 wins during that time. TCU was not getting 4 star players consistently until after they went to the Fiesta Bowl in 2009. They went 12-1 in 2009 and 13-0 in 2010 with 3 4* players on the depth chart.

So that is why people bring up TCU. Because Kill and Patterson follow a similar coaching philosophy. I know Kill is trying this in the BIG and not the MWC, but TCU has been pretty dominant the past decade with "poor" recruiting classes according to the experts.

Good lord. The TCU/Boise examples are horrible. We play in the big10 they play don't. Since 2005 the current Mountain West teams have landed 10 four star players total!!! TCU and Boise weren't winning with bad recruiting classes. They were winning by consistently outrecruiting the rest of their conference. Along with good coaching. But I'm sick of hearing how they won with 2 and 3 stars. Yeah when no one else in the conference is landing 4 and 5 stars!
 

Good lord. The TCU/Boise examples are horrible. We play in the big10 they play don't. Since 2005 the current Mountain West teams have landed 10 four star players total!!! TCU and Boise weren't winning with bad recruiting classes. They were winning by consistently outrecruiting the rest of their conference. Along with good coaching. But I'm sick of hearing how they won with 2 and 3 stars. Yeah when no one else in the conference is landing 4 and 5 stars!

Well both have gone to BCS bowl games and have been ranked in the top 10 nationally consistently for the past 5 years. Only 3 out of the 12 big ten teams can compare in bowl success during that time. If they were in the BIG they would be finishing in the top half year in and year out, which would be overachieving when compared to their recruiting rankings.

I also should have clarified that my main point was that teams can be successful without 4 and 5 star recruits. Also, the gophers will have to start winning with these 2-3 star recruits in order to land the better players.

Also, people talk like Kill isn't recruiting higher ranked players when he definitely is. The gophers need to get out of the big ten cellar in order for him to start landing a few of them.
 




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