How many wins this season (excluding bowl game)?

How many wins this season (excluding bowl game)

  • Less than 5

    Votes: 9 6.8%

  • 5

    Votes: 22 16.7%

  • 6

    Votes: 37 28.0%

  • 7

    Votes: 35 26.5%

  • 8

    Votes: 17 12.9%

  • 9

    Votes: 4 3.0%

  • More than 9

    Votes: 8 6.1%
  • Total voters
    132
  • Poll closed .
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MennoSota said:
3 wins this season. We're basically playing the JV squad against the other B1G teams. We're just too young to expect many wins. Kick back and look to see growth, but don't expect wins.
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New Mexico St, Miami-OH, Indiana, Illinois... that's four we should win. Fresno St, Maryland, Iowa, Purdue we could win. Even Nebraska and N'western aren't out of the realm of possibility.

A three win claim is aiming pretty low. Probably better than drinking the kool-aid and being crushed after the 3-0 starts we have had the last two decades though. Or is this the trolling everyone despises you for?!
 


Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:
Could you do an advanced statistical analysis for us?
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This is only a simplified analysis, but here it is:

The GH community is moderately optimistic for the upcoming season.

Optimistic as judged by only 21.6% seeing a season no better (5 or less wins) than last.

Moderately rather than Wildly Optimistic as only 22.5% predict 8 or more wins.

Moderately Optimistic as 55.9% predict 6 or 7 (equally probable) wins. PJ statements about improvement overall but still fighting youth and inexperience and needing more good drafts seem to support a Cautiously or Moderately Optimistic outlook.

note: based on 111 votes
 
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happygophersgolucky said:
This is only a simplified analysis, but here it is:

The GH community is moderately optimistic for the upcoming season.

Optimistic as judged by only 21.6% seeing a season no better (5 or less wins) than last.

Moderately rather than Wildly Optimistic as only 22.5% predict 8 or more wins.

Moderately Optimistic as 55.9% predict 6 or 7 (equally probable) wins. PJ statements about improvement overall but still fighting youth and inexperience and needing more good drafts seem to support a Cautiously or Moderately Optimistic outlook.
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Did you mean "Pessimistic" for the 21.6% seeing a season of 5 wins or worse?

What would "realist" view be?
 

Face The Facts said:
Did you mean "Pessimistic" for the 21.6% seeing a season of 5 wins or worse?

What would "realist" view be?
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"Realist" is usually a pessimist seeking cover. In my limited experience. However, a "realist" can be an optimist based on good sound objective analysis.

I preferred to use optimism defined as better than last yrs 5 wins. The direct opposite would be pessimism at 5 or less wins. However, this realism vs. pessimism distinction is weak and I tried to avoid it.
 


7-5.....The team won 5 games last year with horrendous qb & wr play. I feel the defense fell victim to that horrible 3 and out offense.

With average quarterback play this year there is no excuse not to go 7-5. Win out in the non-conference portion of the schedule. Beat Purdue, Illinois and Indiana and pick the seventh win up against either Maryland, Iowa or Northwestern.

Young team wins a few and believes they can win or they start “refusing to lose” and who knows what happens this year. However, lose a couple games early that they should win, things could go south in a hurry.

But I really feel 7-5 is doable and realistic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

happygophersgolucky said:
This is only a simplified analysis, but here it is:

The GH community is moderately optimistic for the upcoming season.

Optimistic as judged by only 21.6% seeing a season no better (5 or less wins) than last.

Moderately rather than Wildly Optimistic as only 22.5% predict 8 or more wins.

Moderately Optimistic as 55.9% predict 6 or 7 (equally probable) wins. PJ statements about improvement overall but still fighting youth and inexperience and needing more good drafts seem to support a Cautiously or Moderately Optimistic outlook.

note: based on 111 votes
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What's the standard deviation of your analysis?
 

happygophersgolucky said:
"Realist" is usually a pessimist seeking cover. In my limited experience. However, a "realist" can be an optimist based on good sound objective analysis.

I preferred to use optimism defined as better than last yrs 5 wins. The direct opposite would be pessimism at 5 or less wins. However, this realism vs. pessimism distinction is weak and I tried to avoid it.
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I didn't know you did psychological analysis on self-assigned labels.

Realistic to me would be a range of wins of anything that seems likely. Odds seem to have Gophers at 6 wins. So anything up one or down one from there would seem realistic.
 

I still haven't heard a good reason why this team will be worse this year other than youth. They are still small on defense, but the size is slowly increasing and they have some experience there. The offense literally can't get any worse than it was last year and they still almost went to a bowl game. S&P had them ranked 120 out of 130 teams. The offensive line is deeper with more experience, and the WR core should be much improved. As long as one of the QBs can effectively manage the game, this team should win 6-7 games and go bowling.
 



grumps said:
I didn't know you did psychological analysis on self-assigned labels.

Realistic to me would be a range of wins of anything that seems likely. Odds seem to have Gophers at 6 wins. So anything up one or down one from there would seem realistic.
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Please note that I did not use "self-assigned labels" of realist or pessimist in my summary. When asked, I supplied my thoughts.

I have no problem with your realistic prediction.
 
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happygophersgolucky said:
Going back to the 111 vote results and ignoring the "less than" and "more than" categories only because they cannot be defined well statistically, we get an average of 6.535 wins with a standard deviation of 0.608.
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I pretended they were 4 and 10 wins, respectively. But most of the mass is still between 5-8 wins, as you'd expect.
 





With Annexstad named starter (for NMSU anyway) adjust your wins up by 2 games.
 

I'm guessing 8 wins because as a fan I can't see not expecting to wins the games we are favored or toss up in, plus one upset. I think we are big underdogs in 5 games. Praying we win one of those and all the others.
 

We won 8 in 2013!
We won 8 in 2014!
We won 8 in 2016! and a bowl game! (and lost at PSU in OT, close losses in Lincoln and to Iowa).

We won 5 in 2015 and a bowl game, while dealing with a mid-season coaching change and with competive losses to top 15 teams TCU, OSU, Iowa and MI.

We won 5 in 2017, while dealing with a bunch of expulsions, transfers, suspensions, new system issues and close losses to PU, MD, IA, and MSU. Also in 2017, bad injuries to starters Winfield, Weyler, Connelly, Douglas, Bell, Johnson, Thomas among others.

The 5 win seasons were anomalies. This program and team is a lot better than many people, locally and nationally realize! Ready to break through to the next level.

10-2 would not surprise me. And, we have played WI and OSU close in recent years, so I wouldn't write those off (especially the way the bad news is spewing out of Madison and Columbus the last few weeks).

Big unexpected seasons are very doable with the parity in college football. Think Scott Frost at UCF in year two. Think Tedford at Fresno in year one.

Campbell won 7 and a bowl in year two in Ames, including wins over #3 Oklahoma, #9 TCU, #25 Memphis and close losses to IA (three points), KSU (one point), top 15 Okie State (7 points)...Fleck did better than Campbell in the MAC and he took over a better situation than Campbell.

Don't be surprised to see Fleck out do Campbell's year two performance. Fleck and a bunch of these coaches went to 8 wins in year two at WMU, after rough first year. Would have been even better if they had beaten Purdue (were down 3 in West Lafayette with 6 minutes left), Toledo (lost 19-20 in OT), or USAF in bowl game. They were 6-2 vs MAC.

The Gophers have the greatest recruiting class in history as freshmen on campus ready to help. People don't realize how well we recruited in 2018 class. We also redshirted all most all of the 2017 class, including the Florida and Bama transfers and the jucos. PJ will be releasing two classes of talent on our opponents this year.

We have some great older leaders to help bring around the youngsters.
Fifth year senior Rodney Smith is one of the best rbs in Gopher history.
Junior Tyler Johnson may join Smith in the Gopher all-time record books.
Carpenter will go down in Gopher history as one of the best kickers ever.
Fifth year senior Donnell Greene may break the drafted oline drought.
Fifth year senior Jared Weyler is on the "best center" watchlist, being scouted by NFL.
Fifth year senior Gary Moore looks like an SEC DT.
Fifth year junior OJ Smith was an SEC DT.
Senior Blake Cashman is the best linebacker Fleck has ever seen.
Senior Jacob Huff is a guy Fleck wants his kids wearing his jersey. His twin brother is also great, but may not crack the starting line-up.
Senior Shenault has 16 career starts, was 4th in tackles last year.
Redshirt junior DeLattiboudere experienced vet with 11 starts over last two years.
If fourth year Florida transfer Williamson isn't ready to go, he will have to help coach up the fastest man in Georgia, Terrell Smith.
If fifth year juco Jason Dickson, a UCLA flip, isn't ready to go, he will have to coach up the biggest, strongest four-star OT recruit in the world, Daniel Faalele.
Fouth year juco All America Royal Silver should provide good depth and has had a year off to learn system, build strength.

Junior Carter Coughlin turned down Ohio State, Wisconsin and others so he could be part of a Minnesota team that beats them. Coughlin knows it is this year or next to fulfill the dream. He will be operating at a Prefontaine Pace with a Nekton mentality to win THIS year.

Johnson and Coughlin's recruiting class buddies have that same WIN NOW philosophy. They had a taste of success in 2016 and want to be warm weather bowling in 2018, one of their last two chances. Those third year, upper classmen leaders in that class include:
Antoine Winfield Jr.(returning starter, Fleck calls him the best player on defense)
Thomas Barber (returning starter, another in long line of NFL Barbers?)
Kamal Martin (returning starter, Fleck said he's had the best camp of anyone and is so athletic he could play all three linebacker spots or de)
Kiondre Thomas (returning starter who Fleck says has made huge strides)
Taiyon Devers (ready to terrorize McMarion again)
Conner Olson (returning starter, strongest and smartest Gopher?)
Sam Schlueter (returning starter, was recruited by WI, MSU, NW among others; Coughlin said is much improved strength and technique)
Seth Green (huge recruit offer sheet; Fleck and Ciarrocca say is ready to star)
Ko Kieft (the type of physical TE who can help the o-line)
Phil Howard (returning starter who may not crack the two-deep)
Coney Durr (starred as a frosh in Bowl game embarrasment of Air Leach; now healthy)

Older walk-ons Sam Renner, Bailey Schoenfelder, Calvin Swenson are great HOWphers who will also help the defense.

Maryland has big issues.

Illini may have more.

Purdue was 6-6 in year zero with Brohm and everybody has them power ranked ahead of Minnesota and praising Brohm for resurrecting life in Ross-Ade. I'm not sold. Lot of jucos and grad transfers and now gone NFL defensive talent and trick play smoke and mirrors used to get to 6 wins; obscuring the real view of the Boilers.

Indiana was 5-7 in year zero with Allen and has been badly outrecruited by Gophers in last few years. Lost some very good talent. Friday night at TCF should be elite with an exciting uniform and helmet package!

Fleck seems to have Nebraska's number. Frost in year zero has said he has a lot of work. Gophers have won 3 of 5 from Nebraska...lost a close one in Lincoln in 2016 or it would be 4 of 5!

I've heard the hype on supposedly good non-con teams before, but all I've seen lately are wins over Oregon State (twice), Middle Tennesse State, San Jose State, Colorado State (twice), and Syracuse. Fresno has been the worst play to live in America for two months and Gophs have extra prep time for them while they short week travel across country.

NMSU should be a 3 TD win.

Fleck owns Miami of Ohio. Gophs are 6-0 in last six years vs MAC opponents.

NW and Iowa are the the only two games besides OSU and WI to worry about. The good back, Jackson, is gone. Thorson may be on a bad knee. Lost some good defensive talent to NFL. The AD in Evanston has over-scheduled Fitz, the way the previous weeks lay out, we may benefit.

PJ played Iowa tough in Iowa City. Gophs have edge at TCF in last 3 of 4 vs Hawks. Just a 7 pt loss in 2016. Lot of off the field drama in Iowa City that could come back to haunt. Gophers are elite spiritually and socially and academically.
 


I think are in for a symmetrical season: 4-8 to 8-4 territory (2-7 to 5-4 B1G). So, I will split the difference and go 6-6 (2-7 B1G) for the sake of the poll.
 

hungan1 said:
I think are in for a symmetrical season: 4-8 to 8-4 territory (2-7 to 5-4 B1G). So, I will split the difference and go 6-6 (2-7 B1G) for the sake of the poll.
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Guessing you meant 6-6 (3-6) :cool:

My guess as well
 

Best guess is 5, perhaps 6 but I reserve the right to change my vote. Looking at the schedule if we can get through the preseason unscathed Maryland will be healthier vs last year (but chaos), Illinois is in a heap of trouble. That’s 5. There are a lot of toss up games, eg Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana but all those teams could be significantly better this year. It’s pretty inscrutable and my crystal ball is in the shop.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Best guess is 5, perhaps 6 but I reserve the right to change my vote. Looking at the schedule if we can get through the preseason unscathed Maryland will be healthier vs last year (but chaos), Illinois is in a heap of trouble. That’s 5. There are a lot of toss up games, eg Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana but all those teams could be significantly better this year. It’s pretty inscrutable and my crystal ball is in the shop.
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Even Maryland and Illinois ... none of those are in the bag for us. As far as I'm concerned, we have the preseason with Fresno as a tossup. We have the Big Ten season with Ohio St and Wisconsin as likely losses, leaving 7 other games as tossups. Of those 7, 4 are at home and 3 are on the road. So that is nice. I'm only asking/hoping that we take 3 of those 7.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Best guess is 5, perhaps 6 but I reserve the right to change my vote. Looking at the schedule if we can get through the preseason unscathed Maryland will be healthier vs last year (but chaos), Illinois is in a heap of trouble. That’s 5. There are a lot of toss up games, eg Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana but all those teams could be significantly better this year. It’s pretty inscrutable and my crystal ball is in the shop.
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I expect the Gophs will be much better this year. There's seven winnable games. Take care of business on those seven and win one of Ia/Neb/NW. 8-4.
 

We had seven winnable games last year, just saying. Yes, if things break right, players develop speedily and others stay healthy, and the coaches don’t make bad decisions we could certainly end up bowling with a solid record. The odds of that happening aren’t real high IMO but this is the time of year for irrational exuberance which I’ve participated in from time to time.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
We had seven winnable games last year, just saying. Yes, if things break right, players develop speedily and others stay healthy, and the coaches don’t make bad decisions we could certainly end up bowling with a solid record. The odds of that happening aren’t real high IMO but this is the time of year for irrational exuberance which I’ve participated in from time to time.
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Agreed...I would argue they had a chance at eight. Better offense production this season positions the defense to be on par or better than last year.
 

I wanna hang out with Swingman. So much positivity, would be good for me.
 


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