Interesting.
Iowa played exactly one game last season in which both teams scored below 20 points.
View the 2024 Iowa Football Schedule at FBSchedules.com. The Hawkeyes football schedule includes opponents, date, time, and TV.
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USC, the B1G team with the most passing attempts, also played exactly one game in which both teams scored below 20 points.
View the 2024 USC Football Schedule at FBSchedules.com. The Trojans football schedule includes opponents, date, time, and TV.
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I shouldn’t have said less than 20. I should’ve said 20 or less.
I don’t really think it’s a running or passing thing. I think it’s an Iowa thing.
Since 2021 Iowa in games when both teams score 20 or less:
2024 - Iowa 1-2 (3 of their 4 one score games)
2023 - Iowa 6-1 (7 of their 7 one score games)
2022 - Iowa 2-2 (4 of their 5 one score games)
So since 2022 they have played 16 one score games.
Of those 16 one score games 14 of them both teams scored 20 or fewer. (88%)
In games where both teams scored 20 or fewer Iowa was 9-5.
They are 0-2 in one score games when at least one team scores 21.
I have no idea how that breaks down compared to other teams but it seems like both teams scoring not many points leaves little room for a big spread, just anecdotally.
I did not realize how saying 20 or less vs less than 20 changed the numbers until I actually ran the numbers
Compared to say Minnesota
2024 - 7 one score games - 1 of them both teams scored 20 or fewer Gophers 0-1 in that game.
2023 - 5 one score games - 2 of them both teams scored less than 20. Gophers 1-1 in those games.
2022 - 4 one score games - 2 where both scored less than 20. Gophers 1-1 in those games
So in 3 years the gophers played 16 one score games. In 5 of them both teams scored 20 or less (31%)
In 3 years the gophers played in 1 game where both teams were 20 or less and it wasn’t a 1 score game
In 3 years Iowa played in 0 games where both teams were 20 or less and it wasn’t a 1 score game
So in three years like half the games that were one score games were both teams at 20 or less and one game with both at 20 or less that wasn’t a one score game.
Im not sure analysis actually says anything about anyone but Iowa. But I certainly think part of Iowa playing so many close games is because there are fewer point in games when Iowa plays. There is probably a statistical way to determine if higher scoring games or lower scoring have more margin variance.
