Here's Why Gophers Still (almost) Control Playoff Destiny

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As much as we all like Jim Harbaugh, we should really all want OSU to win next week.

More importantly we need to beat WI.
It would be nice to beat WI by 58 points.
 

Rouser said:
Can I take a moment to point out how awesome it is that this is even a thread topic? Just saying
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Yup. Nobody knows what will happen the next couple weeks, but with the season nearly over there are only 5 - 6 teams who fully control their destinies for the playoffs...and Minnesota is in that group. Absolutely amazing.
 



Face The Facts said:
Biggest factors for us:

1. Winning out
2. Clemson and LSU winning out
3. Oklahoma losing a game
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This.

We have to assume 1, to even have the conversation. But #2 is the really interesting question mark that everyone in the country has. If Georgia wins ..... in my opinion that cracks the door open for every 1-loss team in the country to make a case, conf champion or no.
 

MnplsGopher said:
This.

We have to assume 1, to even have the conversation. But #2 is the really interesting question mark that everyone in the country has. If Georgia wins ..... in my opinion that cracks the door open for every 1-loss team in the country to make a case, conf champion or no.
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I wonder if the Georgia steam faded some with their "just okay" win at home over Texas A&M yesterday. Some are thinking Utah passes them at this point. (Need to keep pumping up the PAC12).

I think the Alabama in CFP steam is going away after Tua's injury. People don't seem to be as adamant about them.
 

builtbadgers said:
Agree. This is wonderful. Only happens when you hire a great coach.
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It's funny watching you post on the football board. Literally every post is about "hiring a great coach". Gotta give you credit, you'll find any crack or crevice to further your anti-Pitino agenda.
 

Face The Facts said:
I wonder if the Georgia steam faded some with their "just okay" win at home over Texas A&M yesterday. Some are thinking Utah passes them at this point. (Need to keep pumping up the PAC12).

I think the Alabama in CFP steam is going away after Tua's injury. People don't seem to be as adamant about them.
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We will see. LSU would obviously be a lock, even if Georgia won. No way Alabama would pass them. I would think there would be mass riots/revolt if three SEC teams got in .... but maybe a one in a million scenario.
 



I think Alabama is done. Oregon's 2nd loss really hurts Auburn's overall clout, and that would theoretically be the win that Alabama hangs its hat on. You must have at least 2 good wins in order to get in with one loss.
 

As for the CFP, after the Oregon loss and assuming Oregon wins the Championship game against Utah, here is what I think will happen:

LSU becomes a lock regardless of what happens in SEC Championship.
Ohio State becomes a lock regardless after they beat Michigan.
Clemson is a lock.

Consider this scenario:
LSU loses to 2 loss Georgia and Ohio State losses to Minnesota/Wisconsin winner.

1. Clemson
2. LSU - better 1 loss team than anyone
3. Ohio State - better 1 loss team than anyone not LSU
4. This is where it gets tough! A 1 loss Gopher B1G Champ gets in but a 2 loss Wisconsin team probably loses out to the SEC champ or a 1 loss Oklahoma/Baylor. Alabama is definitely out.

If LSU wins SEC but OSU loses:

1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State - Best 1 loss team
4. Gopher 1 loss Champ or Big 12 Champ or maybe Utah. Alabama only gets in if LSU and OSU win out.
 

If we win-win there is really only 1 doomsday scenario that would leave us out.

UGA wins a tight game and they just cant leave out an SEC champ or the team they had #1 all year, Clem wins out, Gophers squeak by tOSU and Utah just destroys Oregon. At that point Clemson is in and then you have LSU only 1 "good" loss, UGA only 1 loss + SEC champ, Gophers B1G champ but a loss, tOSU been #1/2 all year and a "good" loss, and Utah Pac 12 champ and only loss was to a good USC team when they lost their star RB.

At that point I COULD see them going Clem/UGA/LSU/Utah. I tend to think Utah would get left out and we would be in but again, that is the only scenario I see where we win/win and maybe dont get in.
 

bfast said:
I think Alabama is done. Oregon's 2nd loss really hurts Auburn's overall clout, and that would theoretically be the win that Alabama hangs its hat on. You must have at least 2 good wins in order to get in with one loss.
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I'll say it until I'm blue in the face: the CFP rankings are not a "put in the numbers, and turn the crank" process.

They can -- and do -- say things like "well, despite the numbers on the resumes, we just think this team *looks* better, so we rated them higher".

And it was done that way on purpose. They didn't want the numbers to hamstring the playoff, and force a semi or national championship between teams in the same conference again, like the Bama/LSU debacle.
 



leib0039 said:
If we win-win there is really only 1 doomsday scenario that would leave us out.

UGA wins a tight game and they just cant leave out an SEC champ or the team they had #1 all year, Clem wins out, Gophers squeak by tOSU and Utah just destroys Oregon. At that point Clemson is in and then you have LSU only 1 "good" loss, UGA only 1 loss + SEC champ, Gophers B1G champ but a loss, tOSU been #1/2 all year and a "good" loss, and Utah Pac 12 champ and only loss was to a good USC team when they lost their star RB.

At that point I COULD see them going Clem/UGA/LSU/Utah. I tend to think Utah would get left out and we would be in but again, that is the only scenario I see where we win/win and maybe dont get in.
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You could say the same thing about OU, if they win out and crush it in the Big XII champ game.

In theory, you'd like to think that the Big Ten and SEC are the two most powerful, lucrative conferences for a reason, and that gets the BT champ in, with everything else mostly equal. We'll see
 

Utah beating Oregon could be an issue.
SEC is the best conference, but not sure if they are worthy of two teams.
I think if we win WI and would upset OSU, we have a better chance to be the #3 seed than the #4.

LSU / Clemson / Minnesota. Then OSU or Georgia or Utah.
I would believe OSU would still get in even with a loss to Minnesota over a Georgia and possibly over a 1 loss LSU team.
OSU would have another win (Over Michigan) where LSU doesn't have much left other than beating a questionable #4 in GA.
 

Tonight's CFP top 10 *should* look like this:

LSU
OSU
Clemson
Georgia
Alabama
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Utah
Florida
Michigan/Wisconsin
 

bfast said:
Tonight's CFP top 10 *should* look like this:

LSU
OSU
Clemson
Georgia
Alabama
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Utah
Florida
Michigan/Wisconsin
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Late season rankings that aren't the final ranking, seem to have a difficult time doing anything other than sliding teams up as-is, when teams above lose.
 

bfast said:
Tonight's CFP top 10 *should* look like this:

LSU
OSU
Clemson
Georgia
Alabama
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Utah
Florida
Michigan/Wisconsin
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I believe OK will be ahead of Minnesota despite their weak win last week against TCU.

I envision:
LSU
OSU
Clemson
Georgia
Utah
Okla
Minnesota
Florida
Michigan / WI

Seems teams who still have quality games left to play move down a couple spots so the committee can say "They have everything still in front of them". Versus saying "Oklahoma is behind Minnesota and likely won't pass them should Minnesota simply beat WI this weekend.

Much of the committee rankings are based on not allowing themselves to have to explain something in detail.
 

I realize it's fun to debate, but it's pretty simple...
Win out -- comfortably in the CFP regardless of what else happens
Beat WI, Lose to OSU -- Rose Bowl or Orange Bowl (potential snag to making the Rose is if Michigan beats OSU)
Lose to WI -- Outback Bowl (outside shot at Orange or Rose)
 

bizzle22 said:
I realize it's fun to debate, but it's pretty simple...
Win out -- comfortably in the CFP regardless of what else happens
Beat WI, Lose to OSU -- Rose Bowl or Orange Bowl (potential snag to making the Rose is if Michigan beats OSU)
Lose to WI -- Outback Bowl (outside shot at Orange or Rose)
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You could view the Orange and Citrus as an either/or type of scenario, as well.
 

MnplsGopher said:
You could view the Orange and Citrus as an either/or type of scenario, as well.
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The Citrus is the only one that’s fairly unlikely being that it’s the only one we’ve been to recently
 

bizzle22 said:
The Citrus is the only one that’s fairly unlikely being that it’s the only one we’ve been to recently
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I don't know about how likely it would be for Minn, but if the SEC or Notre Dame gets the Orange, then the Big Ten likely would get the Citrus, and they would be allowed to select any Big Ten team they want (per the selection rules).
 

bizzle22 said:
I realize it's fun to debate, but it's pretty simple...
Win out -- comfortably in the CFP regardless of what else happens
Beat WI, Lose to OSU -- Rose Bowl or Orange Bowl (potential snag to making the Rose is if Michigan beats OSU)
Lose to WI -- Outback Bowl (outside shot at Orange or Rose)
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Seems about right.
 

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