Here's Why Gophers Still (almost) Control Playoff Destiny

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The bracket is already set, it has been set for weeks. You can pick the order...
1) Ohio State barring some type of upset.
2) Clemson
3) Alabama
4) Georgia or LSU
 

Tua done for the year, not sure I believe that Bama won’t lose to Auburn on the road. SEC doesn’t deserve two teams in. Winner of Oregon Utah deserves a spot, IMO, so probably Oregon.
 


GopherHole breakdown:

— A certain % of posters are still optimistic that the maroon and gold can make the CFP, and these posters are eager to to discuss possible scenarios in which that outcome might be realized.

— A smaller, but very vocal group of posters is jumping in very, very quickly to dismiss those possibilities as pie-in-the-sky.

Hmmmm...

I wonder how many of the second group thought and/or predicted Minnesota would be standing at 9-1 today?

0% of them, I'd guess.

Yet... here we are.

9-1.

#11 in the nation.
 

MNfootballfan said:
The bracket is already set, it has been set for weeks. You can pick the order...
1) Ohio State barring some type of upset.
2) Clemson
3) Alabama
4) Georgia or LSU
Click to expand...

Alabama is toast. I think the committee is searching for a way to get Oregon in as the PAC12 has been shut out for a while. I don't see how Oklahoma jumps Oregon if both win out.
 


MNfootballfan said:
The bracket is already set, it has been set for weeks. You can pick the order...
1) Ohio State barring some type of upset.
2) Clemson
3) Alabama
4) Georgia or LSU
Click to expand...

The "barring some type of upset" is our path. If we beat an awful NW team,and then beat a Wisconsim team that has looked bad in the road at home, we are heading to Indy 11-1 for a likely matchup against OSU. I dont think even the rosiest fan on this board likes ours chances in that scenario. That said, stranger things have happened and that's why the play the game. If (and again, I recognize it's an unlikely scenario) we win that game, we are the 12-1 B1G champs with wins over top 5 OSU, top 10 PSU, and top 20 Wisconsin, with our only loss coming by 4 points on the road to a top 20 team. If that comes to pass (and again, not predicting that it will), I'd be shocked if we dont get OSU's spot in the CFP.
 

The B1G is guaranteed to get a spot with a one-loss team so long as the one loss isn't a bad one.

Ohio State
Minnesota
PSU

You can't tell me with a straight face that a one-loss Oregon, Utah or Oklahoma would have a better one-loss resume than the one-loss B1G team.

Plus, I think the old politics game will be on the B1G's side since it hasn't seen much of the playoff lately. You know there's pressure on the committee to get a B1G rep in.

Also, nobody is claiming that MN is favored or even has a 50% chance vs. OSU. I don't think it's hopeless, however. I think the Michigan and Penn State games will serve to give us more hope of hanging in the ballgame.
 
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bleedsmaroonandgold said:
The "barring some type of upset" is our path. If we beat an awful NW team,and then beat a Wisconsim team that has looked bad in the road at home, we are heading to Indy 11-1 for a likely matchup against OSU. I dont think even the rosiest fan on this board likes ours chances in that scenario. That said, stranger things have happened and that's why the play the game. If (and again, I recognize it's an unlikely scenario) we win that game, we are the 12-1 B1G champs with wins over top 5 OSU, top 10 PSU, and top 20 Wisconsin, with our only loss coming by 4 points on the road to a top 20 team. If that comes to pass (and again, not predicting that it will), I'd be shocked if we dont get OSU's spot in the CFP.
Click to expand...

Our only realistic path to the CFP at this point is to win out. As has been laid out by you and others, at 12-1 we would have a really impressive resume and it would be extremely hard for the committee to keep us out at that point. Exciting to even be able to see a path to the CFP this late in the year, that hasn't ever happened around here.

If it all plays out perfect and we end up in the CFP, awesome. At this point the Wisconsin game is the big key, win the West and earn a title shot in Indy. From there anything can happen.
 

I have seen tOSU play and I have seen WI and MN play and WI stayed with tOSU for about three quarters and then the WI defense was worn out.
MN could not establish a running game against IA but WI ran all over them but could do nothing against tOSU.
MN would lose to tOSU by at least 21 points. And WI is a seven point favorite over MN today.
 



Oregon (and Utah) might be problematic for our chances.

If Oregon wins the PAC12, that would mean they'd have a win over highly-ranked Utah, and no losses since August. They'd be a one-loss P5 champion, and their one loss was a 'quality loss' to Auburn.

If the committee excluded them, with those credentials, it would send a message that the PAC12 (and by extension the entire west coast market) don't matter at all. In a way, the same applies for Utah, if they win out.

I think one of those two is pretty likely to be in.
 

RememberMurray said:
Oregon (and Utah) might be problematic for our chances.

If Oregon wins the PAC12, that would mean they'd have a win over highly-ranked Utah, and no losses since August. They'd be a one-loss P5 champion, and their one loss was a 'quality loss' to Auburn.

If the committee excluded them, with those credentials, it would send a message that the PAC12 (and by extension the entire west coast market) don't matter at all. In a way, the same applies for Utah, if they win out.

I think one of those two is pretty likely to be in.
Click to expand...

We'd have a quality loss, a better "best win", and more good wins.
 

RememberMurray said:
GopherHole breakdown:

— A certain % of posters are still optimistic that the maroon and gold can make the CFP, and these posters are eager to to discuss possible scenarios in which that outcome might be realized.

— A smaller, but very vocal group of posters is jumping in very, very quickly to dismiss those possibilities as pie-in-the-sky.

Hmmmm...

I wonder how many of the second group thought and/or predicted Minnesota would be standing at 9-1 today?

0% of them, I'd guess.

Yet... here we are.

9-1.

#11 in the nation.
Click to expand...

Thank goodness you joined Gopherhole in Jan 2019.

This year's team couldn't have done it, without your incessant trolling the last 11 months!!
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
We'd have a quality loss, a better "best win", and more good wins.
Click to expand...

You're right.

In that scenario, we would have wins over Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State, and only one (close) loss, to a Top 20 team on their field.

The only problems there might be...

1) Ohio State; assuming we beat them and they end up 12-1, it's hard to leave them out — and yet also hard to justify 2 B1G teams in the playoff.

2) Oregon as a one-loss PAC12 champion.

That's assuming Clemson and the eventual SEC champ get in.
 



RememberMurray said:
You're right.

In that scenario, we would have wins over Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State, and only one (close) loss, to a Top 20 team on their field.

The only problems there might be...

1) Ohio State; assuming we beat them and they end up 12-1, it's hard to leave them out — and yet also hard to justify 2 B1G teams in the playoff.

2) Oregon as a one-loss PAC12 champion.

That's assuming Clemson and the eventual SEC champ get in.
Click to expand...

As much as the committee loves to put the thumb on the scale for the blue bloods, there is no way a 12-1 B1G stays home so that the 12-1 conference runner up that they just beat in the title game can go.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
As much as the committee loves to put the thumb on the scale for the blue bloods, there is no way a 12-1 B1G stays home so that the 12-1 conference runner up that they just beat in the title game can go.
Click to expand...

I like how you think, bleed!

Anyway, we have a long way to go just to get to that point.
 


If we lose to NW beat Wisconsin, beat Ohio State and are Big Ten Champs with two losses...can’t see us being selected.

Win out, and they almost have to take the Gophers over Ohio State don’t they?

Like some have said...kinda hard to see us winning out if we can’t run the football better than we did against Iowa.

One game at a time. Beat Northwestern even though Big Ten wise it doesn’t matter. Final Four it does. Best record, feels better etc it does matter too.
 

60's Guy said:
If we lose to NW beat Wisconsin, beat Ohio State and are Big Ten Champs with two losses...can’t see us being selected.

Win out, and they almost have to take the Gophers over Ohio State don’t they?

Like some have said...kinda hard to see us winning out if we can’t run the football better than we did against Iowa.

One game at a time. Beat Northwestern even though Big Ten wise it doesn’t matter. Final Four it does. Best record, feels better etc it does matter too.
Click to expand...

AMEN to the bolded part.

I am still scratching my head regarding the inconsistent nature of our run blocking this season. I really thought we would dominate in that area, all season long.

Maybe Daniel can weigh in. Was it due to Dunlap's injury, and the resulting inability to play 6 o-linemen at the same time?
 

I agree with the above about how we had no running game at all and then I was confused why we kept trying when it was clear they could not slow down any type of passing game.
 

My top 10 for tonight's CFP ranking:

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia ~ (3 top 20 Wins)
5. Alabama ~ (close loss to #1)
6. Minnesota ~ (Beat #7, top 20 loss on road)
7. Penn State ~ (Lost to #6 On Road)
8. Oregon ~ (Top 20 Loss)
9. Utah
10. Michigan ~ (Two top 20 Road losses; Two top 20 wins)
 

bfast said:
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia ~ (3 top 20 Wins)
5. Alabama ~ (close loss to #1)
6. Minnesota ~ (Beat #7, top 20 loss on road)
7. Penn State ~ (Lost to #6 On Road)
8. Oregon ~ (Top 20 Loss)
9. Utah
10. Michigan ~ (Two top 20 Road losses; Two top 20 wins)
Click to expand...
Ha, how little you think of the lack of presence the Gophers carry!

1. LSU
2. OSU
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Alabama
6 Oregon
7. Utah
8. Penn State
9. Oklahoma
10. Minnesota
 

I forgot the rankings show is tonight. Far cry from last week regarding Gopher fan enthusiasm. Perhaps the quality loss helps MN? Seems that's all we were missing when you line up the resumes against Utah, Oregon, and Alabama :)
 

@MGGopher - Will be interesting to see how bad we get penalized for the loss. If we move down a spot and that's about it, that's a quality loss right there! If we move down below 2 loss teams again, then they just don't think we are very good.
 

I think the top 10 ranking tells us that the Gophers have enough steam to get in the playoff if they win out from here.
 

bfast said:
I think the top 10 ranking tells us that the Gophers have enough steam to get in the playoff if they win out from here.
Click to expand...
Possible, but not a lock.

LSU beating Georgia would go a long way to helping us. If Georgia wins, then Georgia, LSU, and Clemson are pretty much locks, and with the Gophers being a 1-loss Big Ten champ, you have to bring 1-loss PAC and Big XII champs into the discussion at that point ...
 

MnplsGopher said:
Possible, but not a lock.

LSU beating Georgia would go a long way to helping us. If Georgia wins, then Georgia, LSU, and Clemson are pretty much locks, and with the Gophers being a 1-loss Big Ten champ, you have to bring 1-loss PAC and Big XII champs into the discussion at that point ...
Click to expand...

If Georgia wins out then Minn might still be in a sticky situation despite winning out. They *should* get in, but it'll be close.
 

Oregon is now out and Utah likely automatically sinks with them. No way the Utes can dig out of their 1-loss hole with that poor of a schedule.

It's pretty much locked at this point that Gophers control their own destiny by winning out.
 

bfast said:
Oregon is now out and Utah likely automatically sinks with them. No way the Utes can dig out of their 1-loss hole with that poor of a schedule.

It's pretty much locked at this point that Gophers control their own destiny by winning out.
Click to expand...
Also would be a 3 seed and avoid LSU imo.
 

Biggest factors for us:

1. Winning out
2. Clemson and LSU winning out
3. Oklahoma losing a game
 

1. LSU (lock if undefeated or 1-loss in SEC title game)
2. Clemson (lock if undefeated)
3. Minnesota (lock if beats WI & Ohio State)
4: Brawl between 1-loss Ohio State/1-loss Oklahoma/1-loss Georgia/1-loss Alabama (Georgia gets nod if beats LSU. Anyone's guess if it comes down to OU, OSU, Alabama)
 
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