Here's what will lose us (or win us) a handful of games this season

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GameDay

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Free throw shooting! It must improve. Perhaps the most beneficial single practice Pitino could run all season is one in which they shoot and shoot and shoot free throws. Run them, get them real tired, than have them hit more free throws. (you get the point :))
In tight games going forward this season, a few more made FTs will be the difference between winning and losing the game. Every game result is huge for a presumed bubble team like the Gophers.

The Numbers: 72 of 129 FTs so far through 6 games. That's a 55% clip folks. 55%. That's embarassing. (We want that number closer to 75% team-wise)
 

Non-issue.

Practicing tons of free throws during NCAA-allowed practice time would be a monumental waste.
 

Making free throws are important, but the two stats, which nearly always determine the outcome of a game are: Rebounds and Turnovers. Win the rebounding battle and keep the turnovers down and you'll have a recipe for success. You can't get to the free throw life if you're not attacking the rim and you're giving the ball away.
 

The difference between 55% FT shooting and 75% is monumental, particularly for this team. This is not a team that is going to get a lot of easy baskets, or shuts down other teams with their suffocating defense.

I reject the stat-based arguments that FT shooting "doesn't matter." Given the way the end of basketball games play out, you can't just look at the final score and say "even if we had made 2 more free throws we wouldn't have won anyway." Making a few more free throws during the course of a game often matters a great deal when you get to the last minute.
 



Missed FT's lead to run outs so often. Made FT's allow us to set up our press. There's a huge disparity between the two.
 

Angry said:
Missed FT's lead to run outs so often. Made FT's allow us to set up our press. There's a huge disparity between the two.
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Missed front ends should count as two misses, does anyone know of a website that tracks percentages of made free throws on the front end of one and ones? Maybe they are just the ones we notice more, but every year we seem to struggle in that department.
 

WanderingGopher said:
The difference between 55% FT shooting and 75% is monumental, particularly for this team. This is not a team that is going to get a lot of easy baskets, or shuts down other teams with their suffocating defense.

I reject the stat-based arguments that FT shooting "doesn't matter." Given the way the end of basketball games play out, you can't just look at the final score and say "even if we had made 2 more free throws we wouldn't have won anyway." Making a few more free throws during the course of a game often matters a great deal when you get to the last minute.
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You have to aggressively attack the basket to get fouled and shoot free throws. We have a lot of soft interior basketball players in Big Mo and Elliot. We won't get enough free throw attempts to change a game from the line. It's a relatively useless stat in the scope of the season as the opposing team will not be shooting 100% from the line themselves. Stick with paying attention to rebounds and turnovers.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Missed front ends should count as two misses, does anyone know of a website that tracks percentages of made free throws on the front end of one and ones? Maybe they are just the ones we notice more, but every year we seem to struggle in that department.
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Along with the one and one angle, setting up our press, and avoiding run-outs, I'd like to see stats on losses of 4 points or less. If the losers had made 75% of their free throws, how many games would that have changed? Tired of the they're not THAT important stance. Cherry-picked stats used by struggling basketball blogger who really doesn't have a clue on why he's not the Gopher basketball version of Aaron Gleeman.
 



GoldenUMNGopher said:
Yup, you're right non issue. I'll remember that when we lose some games by 2-4 pts and shoot 50% from the line.
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I think what Gopher Warrior was saying was that the amount of practice time allowed by the NCAA is limited. Practicing free throws, which takes considerable time, is probably not the best use of a team practice session. Free throws can and should be practiced on the player's own time. I certainly agree with that point.
 

While the free-throw shooting so far this season has been atrocious, I'm not too concerned going forward. I checked out the FT stats compared to last year (for the guys with a FT attempt last year) and the four regulars are all vastly worse than the prior year other than Mo, who is shooting the same percentage at 67%. There's got to be improvement coming soon otherwise I will be baffled.

Hollins 71% down from 84% last season
King 67% - 79%
Mathieu 56% - 75%
Eliason 40% - 57%
 

So, the Gophers are currently 306th amongst D1 teams in FT% at 64%. Just let that sink in. EE, Mason, Buggs, Mo are the biggest culprits. It's played a huge part in two of our losses so far in B1G play.
 

GameDay said:
So, the Gophers are currently 306th amongst D1 teams in FT% at 64%. Just let that sink in. EE, Mason, Buggs, Mo are the biggest culprits. It's played a huge part in two of our losses so far in B1G play.
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If by "huge part" you mean non-issue, then sure. Only two games the Gophers didn't shoot higher than the D-I average were Maryland (beat up bad in that game) and Michigan (turnover city was the culprit).

Free throw percentage is the least of this team's (and most any team's) worries.
 



Gopher Warrior said:
If by "huge part" you mean non-issue, then sure. Only two games the Gophers didn't shoot higher than the D-I average were Maryland (beat up bad in that game) and Michigan (turnover city was the culprit).

Free throw percentage is the least of this team's (and most any team's) worries.
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What is the D-I average?
 

Gopher Warrior said:
If by "huge part" you mean non-issue, then sure. Only two games the Gophers didn't shoot higher than the D-I average were Maryland (beat up bad in that game) and Michigan (turnover city was the culprit).

Free throw percentage is the least of this team's (and most any team's) worries.
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Well, we'd be 2-2 in B1G play with more timely/better free throw shooting. So explain that one.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
Non-issue.

Practicing tons of free throws during NCAA-allowed practice time would be a monumental waste.
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You don't have to shoot "tons" of free throws in order to improve your free throw shooting.

And I would ask the players to work on it outside of practice, too, as time allows.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
If by "huge part" you mean non-issue, then sure. Only two games the Gophers didn't shoot higher than the D-I average were Maryland (beat up bad in that game) and Michigan (turnover city was the culprit).

Free throw percentage is the least of this team's (and most any team's) worries.
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Nate Mason vs OSU nuff said makes the free throw we win
 



Gopher Warrior said:
If by "huge part" you mean non-issue, then sure. Only two games the Gophers didn't shoot higher than the D-I average were Maryland (beat up bad in that game) and Michigan (turnover city was the culprit).
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There are, what, 340 teams in Division 1? If we are the 170th best at free throws, we are going to leave some winnable games on the table.

(And we have).

I could argue all day about the sneaky importance of good free throw shooting generally, but it's an even easier argument with this team. When you're not a great rebounding team, or great defensive team, not more athletic than the other guys, you need to do the little things in order to win. This is potentially a good shooting team. We've seen it. There's no reason we can't/shouldn't be better at free throw shooting, and those 2 or 3 extra points a game would make all the difference in the world in a number of games.
 

bemidjigopher said:
Nate Mason vs OSU nuff said makes the free throw we win
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Know how else we win? One less turnover, one more rebound, one more made field goal. All of those win that game. Fans focus on free throws because it is easy. Oh we missed 8 free throws and lost by 4! If we just work on free throws, we will win!

A 50% free throw shooter averages 1 point per possession he is fouled. Or the same as a 33% 3 point shooter on possessions he shoots a 3. Most would say a 33% shooter helps a team while a 50% free throw shooter hurts it. In reality, they do basically the same thing.
 

scher215 said:
Know how else we win? One less turnover, one more rebound, one more made field goal. All of those win that game. Fans focus on free throws because it is easy. Oh we missed 8 free throws and lost by 4! If we just work on free throws, we will win!

A 50% free throw shooter averages 1 point per possession he is fouled. Or the same as a 33% 3 point shooter on possessions he shoots a 3. Most would say a 33% shooter helps a team while a 50% free throw shooter hurts it. In reality, they do basically the same thing.
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The difference is 50% FT shooting is in fact terrible compared to what we know to be obtainable in basketball, 33% three point percentage is not bad. (Taken to the extreme, if one team is fouled shooting every time down the floor over the course of an entire game, and the other team gets 1 three point shot every time down the floor, you'd expect the FT shooting team to win the game easily).

But I agree that "working on free throws" in practice isn't going to help at this point. Good FT shooting isn't something you just go fix in practice after a bad stretch, although in extreme cases maybe it could help (Eliason). FT shooting is something these guys should be perfecting on their own over the summers, etc., over years. The maddening part is we know, from past years, that these guys can be better than they've been showing and it's cost us games.
 

scher215 said:
Know how else we win? One less turnover, one more rebound, one more made field goal. All of those win that game. Fans focus on free throws because it is easy. Oh we missed 8 free throws and lost by 4! If we just work on free throws, we will win!

A 50% free throw shooter averages 1 point per possession he is fouled. Or the same as a 33% 3 point shooter on possessions he shoots a 3. Most would say a 33% shooter helps a team while a 50% free throw shooter hurts it. In reality, they do basically the same thing.
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The problem there is how they stack up against the opposition. A 50% free throw shooter averages one point per trip where he is fouled, while your opponent is likely averaging 1.5 points per trip while they are fouled. So in that area of the game, you are falling behind your opponent. A 33% three point shooter is more in line with what your opponent is doing, so you are not losing ground with them in that part of the game.

I guess my main issue is with your logic. Using that same logic, couldn't we say that missing an uncontested layup is the same thing as missing a contested mid range jumper, because you both cost your team two points?
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
The problem there is how they stack up against the opposition. A 50% free throw shooter averages one point per trip where he is fouled, while your opponent is likely averaging 1.5 points per trip while they are fouled. So in that area of the game, you are falling behind your opponent. A 33% three point shooter is more in line with what your opponent is doing, so you are not losing ground with them in that part of the game. I guess my main issue is with your logic. Using that same logic, couldn't we say that missing an uncontested layup is the same thing as missing a contested mid range jumper, because you both cost your team two points?
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Good point on the opponent comparison- I just used those figures because (I think?) around 1 point per possession is considered good by most. If you can average 1 PPP you will win most games. Big ways to hurt that is missing a shot (0) or a turnover (0). A 50% free throw shooter gets you (1). So comparatively, unless you played a flawless game shooting and turning it over. Free throws are not the biggest concern.

I'm going to defer to GW now though since I have never claimed to be a stat expert and may be getting over my head lol
 

Free Throw Percentage, like many other things (see: rebounding) is often determined by how well the team plays in other areas of the game.

For example, Michigan State doesn't lead the BIG in rebounding every year because they are the best at boxing out. They do it because they play outstanding defense, which forces tougher shots. Thus, the opponent's FG percentage is lower, and they have more chances to get rebounds. Conversely, on the offensive end, they are able to get good quality shots, thus their FG percentage is higher, and opponents have less rebounds to get. Rebounding is a function of how well on offense/defense you're playing.

Free throws are similar. Teams that are ahead in the game get fouled more often, and especially late in games when protecting the lead, guards (or people you want shooting the free throws) are who get fouled. Because you are essentially sending to the line your best shooters, your FT% is going to be higher. Also, teams that force turnovers are going to shoot better from the line as well as typically on fast breaks guards are the ones that draw fouls.

Sometimes you get teams that are statistical outliers (see: Memphis 2009) but in general FT% is more determined by how well you are playing as a team which leads directly to who is shooting the free throws, not how good you are up and down the roster at the line.
 

Gotta love the free throw nonsense being distributed again...and again.

Free Throws are very important. Rebounding is very important. Not turning the ball over is very important. 3 point shooting is very important. Everything matters. It shouldn't be that hard to understand.
 


Gopher Warrior said:
Free throw % is nearly irrelevant. It's mathematical fact. Sorry, guys.
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Just looked up the D1 free throw shooting rankings, and the only teams shooting worse than us are not the teams I'd like to be compared to. You can say its irrelevant, but let's ask Nate Mason how irrelevant his missed free throw against OSU was.
 

^^^ This topic is over your head, but doesn't need to be. Focus on the topic, not distractions.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
^^^ This topic is over your head,
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Let me help you GW, why don't you just say " I think free throw rate (mention the whole four factors thing too while you're at it) is more important than %, and here's why...blah blah etc." that way, you don't come across as a know-it-all dxxxhead. But I know you like being that guy. I'm just trying to help you. You have good info at times, but (and you know it, and like it) you are insufferable on certain topics. Be nicer and give people useful info, then they won't hate you. Tall order.
I took the bait, my bad.
 

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