Greder: 1. Less experience. 2. Tougher schedule. Story: Those two factors contribute to Gophers football team facing headwinds of lower expectations

[BleedGopher]

Go Gophers!!

 

[60's Guy]

WOW! Just wow! I had NO flippin' idea we were THIS bad?

 

[short ornery norwegian]

that is the view from afar - and you can expect to hear that from a lot of the national writers and broadcast crews who have not done a deep dive into the roster.

it goes like this:
Gophers lost their stud RB, starting QB, 3 starting OL, and had several defensive players leave through the portal. the schedule - on paper - is more difficult. ergo, the Gophers will win fewer games this year.

it's quick, easy and doesn't require any work. so again, expect to hear it a lot.

 

[Some guy]

I would say I have similar expectations on the quality of team.
Success is a 5-4 or better big ten season.
Hopefully we are in position to win the west and take advantage this time

 

[Plato]

Rational minds might ask if PJ could not win the West last year with a talented, experienced team and a doable schedule why expect him to do it this year with a more inexperienced team and a more difficult schedule?

 

[BilldGopher]

Gophers are due for some magic but I'll settle for a little luck here and there.

Understandable that the Skept-O-Meter has this reading coming in regarding success...



Success this year would actually mean something....

 

[mngg11]

I think this is the year we find out how powerful the culture of the program is under Fleck with all of the unknowns and uncertainty. And I think we're going to be more than okay with the results.

 

[tjgopher]

nm

 

[The prez sez]

Woke up in middle of the night and started thinking about this ... can Phars survive injury to Kaliakmanis? That's the season. With him, we're good to potentially great.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Rational minds might ask if PJ could not win the West last year with a talented, experienced team and a doable schedule why expect him to do it this year with a more inexperienced team and a more difficult schedule?

Are the Badger boards really boring or something?

 

[BilldGopher]

.......?

 

[hungan1]

that is the view from afar - and you can expect to hear that from a lot of the national writers and broadcast crews who have not done a deep dive into the roster.

it goes like this:
Gophers lost their stud RB, starting QB, 3 starting OL, and had several defensive players leave through the portal. the schedule - on paper - is more difficult. ergo, the Gophers will win fewer games this year.

it's quick, easy and doesn't require any work. so again, expect to hear it a lot.

National prognosticators like to pick on the Gophers every year after their key players graduate.

Fair enough, the Gophers have not won a Big Ten title. The Gophers system in place is in great shape. They need to beat Iowa, Wisconsin, and now Illinois consistently. It is only a matter of time.

It is simple.

 

[PMWinSTP]

that is the view from afar - and you can expect to hear that from a lot of the national writers and broadcast crews who have not done a deep dive into the roster.

it goes like this:
Gophers lost their stud RB, starting QB, 3 starting OL, and had several defensive players leave through the portal. the schedule - on paper - is more difficult. ergo, the Gophers will win fewer games this year.

it's quick, easy and doesn't require any work. so again, expect to hear it a lot.

Andy Greder is not a national writer...

 

[btowngopher]

Rational minds might ask if PJ could not win the West last year with a talented, experienced team and a doable schedule why expect him to do it this year with a more inexperienced team and a more difficult schedule?

This is still a talented experienced team. What happened last year doesn’t really matter anymore.

 

[Replacement Gopher]

that is the view from afar - and you can expect to hear that from a lot of the national writers and broadcast crews who have not done a deep dive into the roster.

it goes like this:
Gophers lost their stud RB, starting QB, 3 starting OL, and had several defensive players leave through the portal. the schedule - on paper - is more difficult. ergo, the Gophers will win fewer games this year.

it's quick, easy and doesn't require any work. so again, expect to hear it a lot.

Is it wrong?

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Is it wrong?

I would say 'overly simplistic,' because that viewpoint does not take into account the potential impact of new or replacement players at those positions.

Yes, that viewpoint could turn out to be correct, but it could also be too pessimistic.

 

[btowngopher]

I don’t really agree with the roster turnover lowering expectations or the perceived lack of experience. But when you add the two best teams in the conference it is going to make the road much more difficult.

 

[Gopherchase]

I love the tough schedule. Even if it leads to more losses it will be fun. I think our fellas will be very competitive. We need a much better pass rush, and a healthy number eight, to make a West division run.

 

[mngg11]

I love the tough schedule. Even if it leads to more losses it will be fun. I think our fellas will be very competitive. We need a much better pass rush, and a healthy number eight, to make a West division run

I've always said it, this team plays up to the challenge. PJ is great at that. We lay eggs against crap competition.

 

[BilldGopher]

I've always said it, this team plays up to the challenge. PJ is great at that. We lay eggs against crap competition.

Unfortunately some truth here...hopefully this part of the culture makes it to full self-actualization, like, starting this season...

 

[Some guy]

I've always said it, this team plays up to the challenge. PJ is great at that. We lay eggs against crap competition.

Not really a history of that:
Bowling green is the only non conference loss

In 2022
6-0 against teams sub.500
3-4 against teams .500+

In 2021
5-2 against teams sub.500
4-2 against teams .500+

In 2020
3-2 against teams sub.500
0-2 against teams .500+

In 2019
7-0 against teams sub.500
4-2 against teams .500 or better


Since 2019
21-4 against teams sub.500
11-10 against teams .500 or better

 

[Some guy]

Unfortunately some truth here...hopefully this part of the culture makes it to full self-actualization, like, starting this season...

There is literally no truth to this. Since 2019
21-4 against sub.500 teams
11-10 against .500 or better teams


If you’re arguing that the gophers sometimes lose. You are correct.

 

[Gophers_4life]

This is still a talented experienced team. What happened last year doesn’t really matter anymore.

To add on:

usually winning the West came down to beating Iowa and Wisconsin.


Then suddenly last year, Purdue and Illinois mattered. That threw a monkey wrench into everything. (I mean, if we just beat Purdue, at home, on homecoming ..... cripes)


It's full well possible they both regress to not mattering and we're back to needing to beat Iowa and Wisc. NW still seems a ways away from mattering again. Neb year 0.

Always interesting!

 

[BilldGopher]

Not really a history of that:
Bowling green is the only non conference loss

In 2022
6-0 against teams sub.500
3-4 against teams .500+

In 2021
5-2 against teams sub.500
4-2 against teams .500+

In 2020
3-2 against teams sub.500
0-2 against teams .500+

In 2019
7-0 against teams sub.500
4-2 against teams .500 or better


Since 2019
21-4 against teams sub.500
11-10 against teams .500 or better

The numbers certainly tell a good story but the perception still lingers. Purdue last year comes to mind. Granted, we had injuries to deal with but that was a hugely disappointing game.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Since 2019
21-4 against sub.500 teams
11-10 against .500 or better teams

"Rise up to the challenge", doubt many people would use that term to describe playing a .501 team

 

[Gophers_4life]

The numbers certainly tell a good story but the perception still lingers. Purdue last year comes to mind. Granted, we had injuries to deal with but that was a hugely disappointing game.

Mo would've played, we would've won.

In hindsight, if that means he can't go against Illinois and Penn State .... that wouldn't have mattered at all! (Plus a bye week between Purdue and Illinois)

But of course, we thought we could win without him, and then wanted him healthy for those two.


So of course, it worked out backwards.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

I've always said it, this team plays up to the challenge. PJ is great at that. We lay eggs against crap competition.

Wisconsin might be the team to beat in the West, but I think we are mentally ready for the Badgers.

I believe, however, that PJ has some kind of mental block with Captain Kirk and Big Bert. For that reason, I fear both Iowa and Illinois more than Wisconsin--even though Wisconsin might have the best talent of the trio. We game plan reasonably well against Iowa and Illinois, but seem to start slow against both (huge predictor of a loss) and execute just poorly enough at critical junctures in the game to find a way to lose. Both Iowa and Illinois want to play you close and win the battle of minds and of determination--and of mistakes--in the 4th Q. That is kind of PJ's game lately, too--but Iowa, and Illinois under Bert, are just a tad better at closing out that kind of game than we are. In PJ's first two games against Bert, the Gophers passed for 80 yards (2021) and 38 yards (2022) = conservative play-calling recipe for heartbreaking losses.

The last time we beat Iowa (under Jerry), we didn't play a close, guarded, down-to-the last-play game. We just blew them out. In 2014: We won 51-14; Leidner threw 4 TDs (three to the TE) and we rushed for 291 yards. Our defense stifled Iowa's offense. Iowa, taken out of its game plan, folded like a cheap suit. And that is often how PJ has recently beaten Illinois pre-Bert: in 2020, we won 40-14; in 2019 we won 40-17.

In 2023, we should have a better, more diverse and talented, offense than either of these teams. If we are going to beat them, I believe we need to unleash the offense (and play opportunistic, ball-hawking defense). We need to take the scoring lead early; no ceding 10-point leads to either team so that their defenses can win the game. I don't think we should try to beat Kirk and Bert by playing their game; we should play confidently and aggressively on offense, aiming to score early and often. That's the road to the B1G West title for the Gophers, I believe, as it travels through Iowa and Illinois.

 

[Gophers_4life]

I believe, however, that PJ has some kind of mental block with Captain Kirk and Big Bert.

This 100%.

Plays scared. Plays not to lose. Plays too conservative.


Hoping the Wisc win in Madison gave him the correct blueprint to follow. Something has to change PJ.

And it ain't on defense. We're as solid as we're going to get, identity/scheme wise there.

 

[Some guy]

"Rise up to the challenge", doubt many people would use that term to describe playing a .501 team

Thanks for agreeing with me as my point was the opposite of the guy making the point the team always rises to the challenge and always lays eggs

 

[Gophers_4life]

Thanks for agreeing with me as my point was the opposite of the guy making the point the team always rises to the challenge and always lays eggs

He wasn't referring to playing 0.501-0.749 teams. So your stats are false to include those.