Gophers running over opponents, but arch rivals have walls ready

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Some guy said:
I would argue Minnesota has an easier schedule in 2022 and 2024 than they have this year.

so if they can’t do it this year we should probably still try in 22, 23, and 24
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You think having Penn State and Michigan State on the Schedule next year will be easier? Also those are on the road with only 4 home games in 2022 for B1G play.
 

Some guy said:
I would argue Minnesota has an easier schedule in 2022 and 2024 than they have this year.

so if they can’t do it this year we should probably still try in 22, 23, and 24
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R.0cac3e94b61785d82d40a9447220eb59
 

noamfromm said:
East Division foes:

'21 - Ohio State, Maryland, Indiana
'22 - Rutgers, Penn State, Michigan State
'23 - Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State
'24 - Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana

I'd say that '24 looks easier than this year from this vantage point, but '22 seems like a push at best.
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I think Michigan state and Penn state will both have new coaches by 22
 


Plato said:
To interject a bit of reality in the predictions of future results based on current data.
There is a variable that must be looked at to put that data in perspective.
That variable is strength of schedule.
Sagarin has WI SOS at 5 in the nation, IA at 28 and MN at at 58.
That means WI's schedule has been almost twelve times as difficult as MN's.
MN has been gifted by the scheduling computers an as easy a schedule that they are unlikely to see again for a number of years.
So if they cannot do it his year when will they do it?
Right now Sagarin has MN as the underdog in the WI and IA games.
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It does not mean 12X as difficult. OMG UofM grad or Wisc?
 



noamfromm said:
East Division foes:

'21 - Ohio State, Maryland, Indiana
'22 - Rutgers, Penn State, Michigan State
'23 - Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State
'24 - Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana

I'd say that '24 looks easier than this year from this vantage point, but '22 seems like a push at best.
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I think next year is slightly worse than this year and 23 is absolutely brutal. Not only do we have 3 out of the top 4 in the eastern division on the schedule, we also have North Carolina away.

I suspect that next year will be a rebuilding year of sorts. I certainly hope that enough rebuilding occurs next season so that we have a chance to survive with at least a fair season in 23.
 

noamfromm said:
East Division foes:

'21 - Ohio State, Maryland, Indiana
'22 - Rutgers, Penn State, Michigan State
'23 - Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State
'24 - Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana

I'd say that '24 looks easier than this year from this vantage point, but '22 seems like a push at best.
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Sometimes teams that look tough, don't end up being as tough, sometimes due to injury.
I think OSU is almost always tough however.

I think we should try to win whatever game is next, and treat each game like one season and try to win each one as if it's a Championship.

(Also, if we in theory are becoming a top end program, which is always the goal, suddenly a lot more teams should start to appear ordinary in comparison to us).

Games vs IA and WI go from
"tough to win",
to
"we should win 50% of the time",
to
"we should win",
to
"We should trounce them"

Does Ohio St look at Michigan and think, "we should win 50% of the time?"
 

Plato said:
To interject a bit of reality in the predictions of future results based on current data.
There is a variable that must be looked at to put that data in perspective.
That variable is strength of schedule.
Sagarin has WI SOS at 5 in the nation, IA at 28 and MN at at 58.
That means WI's schedule has been almost twelve times as difficult as MN's.
MN has been gifted by the scheduling computers an as easy a schedule that they are unlikely to see again for a number of years.
So if they cannot do it his year when will they do it?
Right now Sagarin has MN as the underdog in the WI and IA games.
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SOS aside, both WI and IA are very beatable by a solid but not great Gophers team. If I did not have concerns about the offensive scheme/coaching I'd go with the Gophers in both games.
 



Face The Facts said:
Sometimes teams that look tough, don't end up being as tough, sometimes due to injury.
I think OSU is almost always tough however.

I think we should try to win whatever game is next, and treat each game like one season and try to win each one as if it's a Championship.

(Also, if we in theory are becoming a top end program, which is always the goal, suddenly a lot more teams should start to appear ordinary in comparison to us).

Games vs IA and WI go from
"tough to win",
to
"we should win 50% of the time",
to
"we should win",
to
"We should trounce them"

Does Ohio St look at Michigan and think, "we should win 50% of the time?"
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You think?! I know! If you need to think about keeping your oar in the water you have already failed socially, academically, athletically, and spiritually. You are already behind and need to race to MAHturity such that we even have a shot of going 1-0 in the Northwestern Championship Season. RTBSkiUMahGoGophers.
 

noamfromm said:
You think?! I know! If you need to think about keeping your oar in the water you have already failed socially, academically, athletically, and spiritually. You are already behind and need to race to MAHturity such that we even have a shot of going 1-0 in the Northwestern Championship Season. RTBSkiUMahGoGophers.
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Give the guy a break, he's clearly working on the failure is gROWth aspect.
 

GopherPete said:
Give the guy a break, he's clearly working on the failure is gROWth aspect.
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I hope he can find gROWth in his failures, but I suspect he's lacking in his HOW. Without requisite HOW you can't respond to your failures and get the results you need. He's needs to be HYPRR focused.
 

noamfromm said:
I hope he can find gROWth in his failures, but I suspect he's lacking in his HOW. Without requisite HOW you can't respond to your failures and get the results you need. He's needs to be HYPRR focused.
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Agreed, and ultimately at the end of the day we're all FAMILY.
 




I can't decide if I like the years when there is a wider gap between the Iowa and Wisc game.
 

The Maryland coach said that they knew the Gophers game plan to run.

The Gophers did exactly as Maryland expected. They were simply out-muscled at the LOS and could not stop what they knew was coming.

Connor Olson and company play with nastiness that wear defenses down
 

Face The Facts said:
Sometimes teams that look tough, don't end up being as tough, sometimes due to injury.
I think OSU is almost always tough however.
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Yes, OSU is very dependable that way. Other than the pandemic season, Michigan hasn't been weak since 2014. I suppose there is a greater chance of Michigan State being mediocre in 23 since they were mediocre in four of the last five years and their coach hasn't established himself as a consistent winner.

The list above was Nebraska's eastern crossover slate this year. That and Oklahoma as a non conference opponent are major contributors to the result of them having almost no chance remaining of being bowl eligible this season. Give them our crossover slate of Ohio State, Indiana, and Maryland and they likely would have a much better chance of getting there. We had a similar situation in 2015. We may not have had a particularly good team that year but with Ohio State (11-1 regular season), Iowa (12-0), Wisconsin (9-3), Michigan (9-3), Northwestern (10-2), and TCU (10-2) on the schedule we had no room for error.
 
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MaxyJR1 said:
You think having Penn State and Michigan State on the Schedule next year will be easier? Also those are on the road with only 4 home games in 2022 for B1G play.
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Michigan St is still a big pretender, to me. Who have they played??

We will see.
 

MplsGopher said:
Michigan St is still a big pretender, to me. Who have they played??

We will see.
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They haven't played OSU, Michigan, and PSU yet. Besides those, they have Maryland and Purdue left.

I don't see them beating OSU or Michigan but they look better than PSU right now and they have that game at home. Seems most likely to be a 9 win or possibly 10 win season for them which most teams certainly would welcome. You can get 9 or 10 wins in the regular season without beating multiple higher rated teams. We did that ourselves in 2019.
 

cjbfbp said:
They haven't played OSU, Michigan, and PSU yet. Besides those, they have Maryland and Purdue left.

I don't see them beating OSU or Michigan but they look better than PSU right now and they have that game at home. Seems most likely to be a 9 win or possibly 10 win season for them which most teams certainly would welcome. You can get 9 or 10 wins in the regular season without beating multiple higher rated teams. We did that ourselves in 2019.
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I'm counting on Purdue, Maryland, and Penn St to come through.

What did Tucker actually do, to deserve a 9 or 10 win team to fall out of the sky?? No way he did. It's because he's played a bunch of nobodies.
 

MplsGopher said:
I'm counting on Purdue, Maryland, and Penn St to come through.

What did Tucker actually do, to deserve a 9 or 10 win team to fall out of the sky?? No way he did. It's because he's played a bunch of nobodies.
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I like Tucker’s coaching. He brought discipline and sound fundamentals to MSU. I don’t think he’ll beat the big boys, but he’s getting the most out of what he has.

It’s similar to when Mason took over from Wacker.
 


UpAndUnder43 said:
I'm not sure the #5 SOS is 12x more difficult than the 58th. Because that is saying #1 is 10x as difficult as #10, when in actuality they are likely very close.
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I was going to say the same thing. Ranking functions are rarely, if ever, linear. We could be talking tenths, hundredths or even thousandths of a point difference between two ranks depending on which of a many indexes you are reading.

SOS is an attempt to normalize win-loss records in order to compare teams across wildly varying populations (i.e. conferences). I'm sure some models are better than others, but it is also far from a perfect science, especially in season. With teams winning and losing week in and week out, the data and models are most likely going to be quite noisey until all the dust settles.

Bad losses (i.e. Bowling Green) have an amplification effect, too. You'd have to eat 30 bowls of your typical high fiber wins to equal 1 bowl of bad loss Colon Blow.
 

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