Gophers running over opponents, but arch rivals have walls ready

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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per Greder:

Minnesota’s vaunted rushing attack, which ranks 18th in the nation with 218 yards per game, will have to go up against the Hawkeyes rushing defense, fifth in the country, and the Badgers’ unit, which leads the nation in fewest yards allowed.

www.twincities.com

Gophers running over opponents, but arch rivals have walls ready

A West Division title is still on table, but Iowa and Wisconsin are among the nation’s best against the run.
www.twincities.com www.twincities.com

Go Gophers!!
 


BleedGopher said:
per Greder:

Minnesota’s vaunted rushing attack, which ranks 18th in the nation with 218 yards per game, will have to go up against the Hawkeyes rushing defense, fifth in the country, and the Badgers’ unit, which leads the nation in fewest yards allowed.

www.twincities.com

Gophers running over opponents, but arch rivals have walls ready

A West Division title is still on table, but Iowa and Wisconsin are among the nation’s best against the run.
www.twincities.com www.twincities.com

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...

Yes, Greder; and those teams will have to play against the Gophers defense.

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IN THE B1G (rushing yards per game)...

Wisconsin: #2 in rushing offense (218.0) / #1 in rushing defense (53.3)

Gophers: #4 in rushing offense (210.0) / #2 in rushing defense (85.7)

Iowa: #12 in rushing offense (116.6) / #3 in rushing defense (89.7)


 

RememberMurray said:
Yes, Greder; and those teams will have to play against the Gophers defense.

----

IN THE B1G (rushing yards per game)...

Wisconsin: #2 in rushing offense (218.0) / #1 in rushing defense (53.3)

Gophers: #4 in rushing offense (210.0) / #2 in rushing defense (85.7)

Iowa: #12 in rushing offense (116.6) / #3 in rushing defense (89.7)


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Interesting. Iowa’s offense isn’t very good and I know they scored a lot against Maryland
 






To interject a bit of reality in the predictions of future results based on current data.
There is a variable that must be looked at to put that data in perspective.
That variable is strength of schedule.
Sagarin has WI SOS at 5 in the nation, IA at 28 and MN at at 58.
That means WI's schedule has been almost twelve times as difficult as MN's.
MN has been gifted by the scheduling computers an as easy a schedule that they are unlikely to see again for a number of years.
So if they cannot do it his year when will they do it?
Right now Sagarin has MN as the underdog in the WI and IA games.
 



Plato said:
To interject a bit of reality in the predictions of future results based on current data.
There is a variable that must be looked at to put that data in perspective.
That variable is strength of schedule.
Sagarin has WI SOS at 5 in the nation, IA at 28 and MN at at 58.
That means WI's schedule has been almost twelve times as difficult as MN's.
MN has been gifted by the scheduling computers an as easy a schedule that they are unlikely to see again for a number of years.
So if they cannot do it his year when will they do it?
Right now Sagarin has MN as the underdog in the WI and IA games.
Click to expand...
Not gonna dispute that at all but the actual reality of it is if UW goes against someone with a stout run defense, they're a lot easier to beat with Mertz and his wet noodle back of an arm back there. If Iowa goes up against a team who doesn't turn it over and has a semi competent defense, they're also extremely beatable. SOS is just one of the things to look at, but Rutgers or UConn could have the #1 SOS and you wont convince me they're a good team. You will convince me they're battle tested and better because of it though.
 


Fleckoff said:
Turnovers, short fields, defensive TD's
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I know. I was saying they aren't good and adding that caveat before people said "well they scored way more against maryland than we did so are you saying the gopher offense isn't good???" cause thats how this board works
 

Plato said:
To interject a bit of reality in the predictions of future results based on current data.
There is a variable that must be looked at to put that data in perspective.
That variable is strength of schedule.
Sagarin has WI SOS at 5 in the nation, IA at 28 and MN at at 58.
That means WI's schedule has been almost twelve times as difficult as MN's.
MN has been gifted by the scheduling computers an as easy a schedule that they are unlikely to see again for a number of years.
So if they cannot do it his year when will they do it?
Right now Sagarin has MN as the underdog in the WI and IA games.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure the #5 SOS is 12x more difficult than the 58th. Because that is saying #1 is 10x as difficult as #10, when in actuality they are likely very close.
 



We've known for a while that we are in the stretch of "don't screw up games," and that (so long as we don't falter), the division will be decided in the "prove it" games against Iowa and Wisconsin. I think the analysis is basically right, but unsurprising.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Interesting. Iowa’s offense isn’t very good and I know they scored a lot against Maryland
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Turnovers, which are not reflected in yardage allowed stats. Iowa intercepted Maryland six times (!) and recovered a fumble. Seven total turnovers--several giving the Iowa offense a short or very short field. The Gophers, on the other hand, ran up their point total against Maryland on true offensive firepower. We played great defense in terms of bottling up Maryland's offensive firepower, but didn't get a single interception, and we got only one turnover, on a fumble (plus a 4th down stop). We weren't gifted a bunch of short fields.

Iowa is simple to solve. Purdue did it. Have a good, solid defensive effort, battering Iowa's limited offense (which Gophers can do this year). Run your own offense well, including a passing game (because Iowa defends the run very well). NB: Purdue beat Iowa with a passing game. And don't turn over the ball. Give Iowa crappy field position starts on every series; no short fields. The result will be a low scoring, field position battle that we have a real chance to win so long as we don't let Iowa prevail in the one category in which they are markedly better than us: turnovers/interceptions.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Turnovers, which are not reflected in yardage allowed stats. Iowa intercepted Maryland six times (!) and recovered a fumble. Seven total turnovers--several giving the Iowa offense a short or very short field. The Gophers, on the other hand, ran up their point total against Maryland on true offensive firepower. We played great defense in terms of bottling up Maryland's offensive firepower, but didn't get a single interception, and we got only one turnover, on a fumble (plus a 4th down stop). We weren't gifted a bunch of short fields.

Iowa is simple to solve. Purdue did it. Have a good, solid defensive effort, battering Iowa's limited offense (which Gophers can do this year). Run your own offense well, including a passing game (because Iowa defends the run very well). NB: Purdue beat Iowa with a passing game. And don't turn over the ball. Give Iowa crappy field position starts on every series; no short fields. The result will be a low scoring, field position battle that we have a real chance to win so long as we don't let Iowa prevail in the one category in which they are markedly better than us: turnovers/interceptions.
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So do what every team tries to do in every game? Got it!
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
I'm not sure the #5 SOS is 12x more difficult than the 58th. Because that is saying #1 is 10x as difficult as #10, when in actuality they are likely very close.
Click to expand...
The SOS schedule is not a mathematical scale. All it means is that in terms of strength of teams played, WIS > IOWA > MN. But no relative mathematical scale is implied. Given that most P5 college teams are composed of equal numbers of young men of similar age and size, it would be far more likely that the relative SOS for WIS/IOWA/MN would be on the order of 1.5/1.25/1.0 than that that WIS has played a schedule that is 1,200% tougher than Minnesota's.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
So do what every team tries to do in every game? Got it!
Click to expand...
I was answering a question: someone asked how Iowa scored so much against Maryland if Iowa has a crappy offense. Answer: Iowa's defense got lots of turnovers, gifting its offense short fields.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
I know. I was saying they aren't good and adding that caveat before people said "well they scored way more against maryland than we did so are you saying the gopher offense isn't good???" cause thats how this board works
Click to expand...
Derek Burns had an interesting take on the breakdown podcast. His thinking was that you could look at Minnesota's lack of turnovers in a positive light, that being the defense is playing so well and not even getting the turnovers that is buoying Iowa.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
I was answering a question: someone asked how Iowa scored so much against Maryland if Iowa has a crappy offense. Answer: Iowa's defense got lots of turnovers, gifting its offense short fields.
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I didn't ask that, you misunderstood. I said Iowa has a crappy offense and the only game they scored a lot they had 7 turnovers.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
The SOS schedule is not a mathematical scale. All it means is that in terms of strength of teams played, WIS > IOWA > MN. But no relative mathematical scale is implied. Given that most P5 college teams are composed of equal numbers of young men of similar age and size, it would be far more likely that the relative SOS for WIS/IOWA/MN would be on the order of 1.5/1.25/1.0 than that that WIS has played a schedule that is 1,200% tougher than Minnesota's.
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Agreed. The post I replied to said there schedule is almost 12x more difficult and that simply isn't how it works. I don't do stats and stuff for a living so can't further explain but your explanation is likely more correct, even if I don't understand it.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Agreed. The post I replied to said there schedule is almost 12x more difficult and that simply isn't how it works. I don't do stats and stuff for a living so can't further explain but your explanation is likely more correct, even if I don't understand it.
Click to expand...
You explained it just fine. It's a matter of logic, not mathematical extrapolation. To say Iowa's schedule is 12 times tougher than ours is to say the No. 5 recruit in the country is 12 times better than the No. 58 guy.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
The SOS schedule is not a mathematical scale. All it means is that in terms of strength of teams played, WIS > IOWA > MN. But no relative mathematical scale is implied. Given that most P5 college teams are composed of equal numbers of young men of similar age and size, it would be far more likely that the relative SOS for WIS/IOWA/MN would be on the order of 1.5/1.25/1.0 than that that WIS has played a schedule that is 1,200% tougher than Minnesota's.
Click to expand...

Good lesson. Yes, one must look at the underlying numbers behind nonparametric rankings. Let's take a current Sagarin rating for example. The rating difference between #30 Kansas State and #60 North Dakota State (Sagarin includes FCS teams) is 5 rating points which amounts to 6.4% of Kansas State's rating of 77.54. So, if one were to make a value judgment just based on the Sagarin quantitative difference between North Dakota State and Kansas State, saying that North Dakota State was about 94% as good as Kansas State would be correct but saying NDSU was half as good would not.
 

Dakota2 said:
You explained it just fine. It's a matter of logic, not mathematical extrapolation. To say Iowa's schedule is 12 times tougher than ours is to say the No. 5 recruit in the country is 12 times better than the No. 58 guy.
Click to expand...
Thanks. The 12x thing made no sense to me. I think SOS is actually a specific # as well as a ranking. Like 2019 our SOS (per sports reference was 2.11, same with 2020. This year its 3.20.
 

Plato said:
To interject a bit of reality in the predictions of future results based on current data.
There is a variable that must be looked at to put that data in perspective.
That variable is strength of schedule.
Sagarin has WI SOS at 5 in the nation, IA at 28 and MN at at 58.
That means WI's schedule has been almost twelve times as difficult as MN's.
MN has been gifted by the scheduling computers an as easy a schedule that they are unlikely to see again for a number of years.
So if they cannot do it his year when will they do it?
Right now Sagarin has MN as the underdog in the WI and IA games.
Click to expand...
I would argue Minnesota has an easier schedule in 2022 and 2024 than they have this year.

so if they can’t do it this year we should probably still try in 22, 23, and 24
 



Feels like more of the same with these matchups against border rivals. Wisconsin is coming together, and I like them to beat Iowa this weekend. All comes down to those games again. The way it should be. Long as we can take care of NU, Illinois and Indiana as well. NU and Indiana worry me on the road a little bit.
 


Some guy said:
I would argue Minnesota has an easier schedule in 2022 and 2024 than they have this year.

so if they can’t do it this year we should probably still try in 22, 23, and 24
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East Division foes:

'21 - Ohio State, Maryland, Indiana
'22 - Rutgers, Penn State, Michigan State
'23 - Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State
'24 - Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana

I'd say that '24 looks easier than this year from this vantage point, but '22 seems like a push at best.
 

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