Gopher's Playoff Tracker

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Pertinent happenings around the league and how they impact the Gophers.

1. UMass Lowell loses to ND tonight. If ND can knock them out, will eliminate UMass from contention while strengthening the Gophers RPI.
2. Speaking of Hockey East, depending on how Sunday shakes out (3 elimination games), Hockey East could become a likely bid stealer league. Vermont, UNH, and ND are all on the outside looking in and have a chance to win the HE autobid still. Would be best for Gophers if BC takes care of Vermont (BC isn't dropping out of the postseason with a loss). The other 2 are more coin flips in who to root for. The only way ND gets in is via the autobid and the Gophers really don't want to see another bid stealer considering we sit at 12 right now. But ND winning would fully eliminate UMass, who could jump us with a win this weekend and a Gopher loss in our first game of the BTT. A UNH win over Providence would likely see us jump Prov for the time being as well. But again would still require us to win at least one next weekend to maintain that. I would still tend to cheer for UNH because it is unlikely they are going to come through the HE tournament as champs but I'm leery of getting too many bid stealers through to the next round. Definitely the league to watch in my eyes right now with so many crucial games tomorrow.
3. Yale beat Harvard to set up an elimination game tomorrow. Both teams below us right now. Winner will face St Lawrence it what will be an elimination series yet again as there's no way for any of these 3 teams to absorb losses right now and make the tourney (Yale is sitting best at 14, but even with a W over Harvard, dropping 2 vs. StL will put them out). Will be very exciting hockey in an intense rivalry game. Would recommend trying to catch this one if you can tomorrow.
4. Also in the ECAC, Union beat Quinnipiac. Very good news for the Gophers as we significantly jumped Quinni now. In all honesty, it now doesn't matter as much who wins now because the ECAC looks like a for sure autobid league due to Quinni's and Harvard's losses tonight. All in all that's a plus for our Gophers as it means only one ECAC team will be taking a spot. I know it looks like right now that there could be several when you look at the PWR (if you choose to), but if you add losses to any of these teams, even if they make it to the title game, the hit to their win % rank will drop these teams rapidly (which is why Quinni fell so far with a loss to Union tonight).
5. Atlantic Hockey still a for sure bid stealer. Nothing changed here.
6. Bowling Green finished off the sweep of Northern Michigan tonight which was really the only one that's worrisome in this league for the Gophers. BSU and FSU can only get in via the autobid and Mankato and Tech are already locked in. Bowling Green is directly below us in the PWR as it sits right now and has an elimination game (essentially) vs Tech next weekend. If they pull off the upset, it's going to mandate that the Gophers win the BTT to maintain seeding over BG. Right now they rank higher than us in win % rank and we rank higher in RPI. A game against Tech will bring them up in that regard and we will likely fall when we play PSU or OSU. You might be wondering why in the heck this matters at all, but it really is crucial due to that we have 2 known bid stealers right now in Atlantic Hockey and now the ECAC. That puts the bubble as automatically at 14. Now throw in that if the Gophers lose in round 1, we have a B10 autobid team getting in and the cut is at 13 which is right where BG is sitting currently. All it would take to knock us out is WMU from the NCHC or any of the numerous teams that could be left in Hockey East winning the autobid to put the Gophers at home on the couch. So Tech/BG is a huge, huge game for a ton of reasons. One to keep an eye on.

Right now, I'd put the Gophers as needing to win one to feel safe to make the tourney. That all depends on how Hockey East shakes out tomorrow of course. Really torn on who to cheer for out East as we'd like to get as few bid stealers as we can at this point. In all fairness, may be best to hope for chalk and the high seeds winning. Then pull for Tech to take care of BG next weekend and things should be safe. Hope that was easy enough to follow. Given our play this weekend in dismantling PSU, I feel better about our chances. But when all it takes is one bounce of the puck to be eliminated, the margin for error is still razor thin. Stay tuned. I'll update again tomorrow but for sure check out the HE games if you can. ND plays UML at 3, Vermont-BC is at 5, and UNH-Providence starts at 630.


Edit: I see BG has now jumped us and we sit in 13th. All the more reason we cannot lose in the first round. The works not done yet. Regardless, tomorrow will hold some good, very impactful hockey. Check it out
 

MinneStoa said:
According to the updated Pairwise (as of about two minutes ago), the Gophers are sitting at 12. Not a lock, but there's a good chance that we should get in even with a loss in the first game of the BTT.

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-men/
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check out my write up. Not as good as one would hope. 2 for sure bid stealers plus one more from the B10 if the Gophers lose put the bubble at 13. Not at all comfy. If the Gophs lose in the 1st round, will likely be major gut clenching time as the other games play out.
 

MinneStoa said:
According to the updated Pairwise (as of about two minutes ago), the Gophers are sitting at 12. Not a lock, but there's a good chance that we should get in even with a loss in the first game of the BTT.

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-men/
Click to expand...

A first round loss would be living really dangerously. That game we lost to OSU last weekend really sent us for a tumble, and as North Kid pointed out, the bubble if we don't win the BTT is only going to be at 13, and that is assuming that powers in Hockey East, NCHC, and WCHA all take care of business. If we are assuming a first round loss, it also won't be to a good team, PSU or OSU. It would certainly behoove us to win at least one more.
 

MinneStoa said:
According to the updated Pairwise (as of about two minutes ago), the Gophers are sitting at 12. Not a lock, but there's a good chance that we should get in even with a loss in the first game of the BTT.

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-men/
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Thanks, I didn't realize that was updated already.

I don't know much about the pairwise so forgive my ignorance, but how the hell is UMD and St. Cloud St. rated so high?
 

GophersInIowa said:
Thanks, I didn't realize that was updated already.

I don't know much about the pairwise so forgive my ignorance, but how the hell is UMD and St. Cloud St. rated so high?
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Huge amount of help playing in the NCHC. Very similar to the WCHA of old where you are playing very good teams week in and out (they have 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, and 11 in the league) so their RPI is very high. They have the #1 and 2 schedules this year (partially from playing us).
 


I thought we were in after tonight.

Now I see the rankings are updated and I realize that's not so.

Big Ten hockey sucks.
 

Studwell55 said:
I thought we were in after tonight.

Now I see the rankings are updated and I realize that's not so.

Big Ten hockey sucks.
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Yeah it definitely is the drag down of the B10. We sit at 12 in SOS but the next teams in the B10 are Wisconsin (21), Ohio State (28), and Michigan (35) and we know how their OOC games went. Absolutely killing our RPI.
 

Miss the WCHA days- especially with a kid at DU and watching them play UND this year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

upnorthkid said:
Huge amount of help playing in the NCHC. Very similar to the WCHA of old where you are playing very good teams week in and out (they have 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, and 11 in the league) so their RPI is very high. They have the #1 and 2 schedules this year (partially from playing us).
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Still seems like strength of schedule is too high of a factor in my opinion. UMD has moved down since I looked at it earlier. They were just a #3 even though they have 15 losses.
 



GophersInIowa said:
Still seems like strength of schedule is too high of a factor in my opinion. UMD has moved down since I looked at it earlier. They were just a #3 even though they have 15 losses.
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I've seen teams with weak schedules end up with good ranks too. I think it was Quinnipiac who got the 1 seed over us one year and everyone said that they were inflated and they shouldn't be number 1 because their schedule was too weak. If I recall correctly, they went on a run to the title game. Strength of schedule is big, but if you are able to dominate a weak schedule, you can do well.

Also, we are currently number 12 in the pairwise, and we are in a tie for the 12th best winning percentage, so its not like we have been posting a top winning percentage and the Big Ten has just been holding us back.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Still seems like strength of schedule is too high of a factor in my opinion. UMD has moved down since I looked at it earlier. They were just a #3 even though they have 15 losses.
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I won't disagree with you there but remember they also took care of business ooc by sweeping us. There doesn't appear to be any one team rising head and shoulders out of any of the other leagues and it's allowing the depth of the nchc to dominate the rankings based on sos
 

ND in trouble early. down 3-1 but outshooting UML 11-4. Hit a couple posts as well. Prime example of why elimination games can swing so quickly
 

Quinnipiac's win had them leap frog us in the PWR. The real nightmare scenario out of the ECAC seems like it would be QU losing the conference tournament but still finishing ahead of us in the PWR (could happen if we lose our first round game). Obviously, a lot of shaking left to be done, but at this point if we took as given that the Gophs lose their first game next weekend, I would put money on us being out. Even going 1-1 leaves us in a precarious spot.
 



Nightmare day for Gophers. Quinnipiac, UML and Vermont (bid stealer is only way in for them and BC locked in already). Need UNH to hold on and beat Providence to salvage anything positive today. But it looks like an absolute for sure that we must win our first BTT game.
 

upnorthkid said:
Nightmare day for Gophers. Quinnipiac, UML and Vermont (bid stealer is only way in for them and BC locked in already). Need UNH to hold on and beat Providence to salvage anything positive today. But it looks like an absolute for sure that we must win our first BTT game.
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I think I'd rather Providence pull this one out. Its unlikely we catch them either way, but UNH would leave another potential bid-stealer in the Hockey East's final four.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I think I'd rather Providence pull this one out. Its unlikely we catch them either way, but UNH would leave another potential bid-stealer in the Hockey East's final four.
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I stand corrected, looks like Providence took a tumble. I should listen to North Kid more often.
 

Now that this week's games are done, Gophers living on the edge at number 13. Here is what is going on elsewhere:

Atlantic Hockey: whoever wins, no one will be a factor for a top 16 spot, guaranteed bid stealer

Big Ten: no one but the Gophs in the mix (Michigan might be able to flirt with 16, but to do so, they would probably need to win the tournament anyways), if we don't win the BTT, whoever does win it will steal another bid

ECAC: as it stands, Quinnipiac is above us and Colgate is at number 16, probably the nightmare would be if Quinnipiac wins their semifinal and then loses the title, because they could hold serve and finish above us while another ECAC team steals a spot with an autobid. Bottom line is I would like Colgate to lose to St. Lawrence to keep them off our tail, and then see Quinnipiac lose their semifinal so hopefully we pass them, but if QU beats Harvard, I want them to win the whole thing so as not to open the door to another ECAC bid.

Hockey East: Boston University is the only remaining team left in the top 16, with Mass-Lowell just on the outside in a tie for 16th. Hopefully Vermont knocks of Lowell to keep them out of the mix, and then BU runs the table, because otherwise someone Hockey East will steal another bid (and we won't catch BU anyways).

NCHC: Finally some good news, no bid-stealers left alive. Three of the teams are likely too far ahead for us to catch in the PWR. As much as I hate to say it, I'd like the Fighting Wioux to knock of St. Cloud in the semis, we could still pass the Huskies.

WCHA: We should cheer for Michigan Tech over Bowling Green (Tech too far ahead of us to matter, and Bowling Green is one spot up) and Minnesota State over Ferris State (Minnesota State also too high, and Ferris State is a possible bid stealer).

A lot of moving parts still in place, the bottom line is that if we want to feel safe, we really need to win the BTT. I'd give us less than 50-50 of getting in if we lose our semi-final game, and slightly more than 50-50 if we lose in the title game. Winning the BTT wouldn't just guaranty the bid, it would give us a chance to move up in the tournament seeding in what seems to be a particularly volatile year for the PWR. Next weekend should be wild.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I think I'd rather Providence pull this one out. Its unlikely we catch them either way, but UNH would leave another potential bid-stealer in the Hockey East's final four.
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Just caught Providence. ;)

On a side note, there is a way we can lose our 1st round game and still make the tourney, but it requires things going pretty much chalk every where else. Not a situation we want to play around with. Best to win one at least.

If you feel like messing around, USCHO has their PWR Predictor up. It's kind of fun
 

upnorthkid said:
Just caught Providence. ;)

On a side note, there is a way we can lose our 1st round game and still make the tourney, but it requires things going pretty much chalk every where else. Not a situation we want to play around with. Best to win one at least.

If you feel like messing around, USCHO has their PWR Predictor up. It's kind of fun
Click to expand...

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/

Yep, this is always fun to play around with this time of year. I constantly reference it during the conference tournaments. This is the real beauty of college hockey over basketball, the field is going to be set on the ice. There is no whining that you got jobbed by the committee (except as it relates to seeding within the field) or that they have some kind of regional or conference bias.

Edit: I just ran the predictor with Penn State beating OSU and then us losing to Penn State in the first round, and not simulating any other games. That moved us to 15 on the outside looking in.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Now that this week's games are done, Gophers living on the edge at number 13. Here is what is going on elsewhere:

Atlantic Hockey: whoever wins, no one will be a factor for a top 16 spot, guaranteed bid stealer

Big Ten: no one but the Gophs in the mix (Michigan might be able to flirt with 16, but to do so, they would probably need to win the tournament anyways), if we don't win the BTT, whoever does win it will steal another bid

ECAC: as it stands, Quinnipiac is above us and Colgate is at number 16, probably the nightmare would be if Quinnipiac wins their semifinal and then loses the title, because they could hold serve and finish above us while another ECAC team steals a spot with an autobid. Bottom line is I would like Colgate to lose to St. Lawrence to keep them off our tail, and then see Quinnipiac lose their semifinal so hopefully we pass them, but if QU beats Harvard, I want them to win the whole thing so as not to open the door to another ECAC bid.

Hockey East: Boston University is the only remaining team left in the top 16, with Mass-Lowell just on the outside in a tie for 16th. Hopefully Vermont knocks of Lowell to keep them out of the mix, and then BU runs the table, because otherwise someone Hockey East will steal another bid (and we won't catch BU anyways).

NCHC: Finally some good news, no bid-stealers left alive. Three of the teams are likely too far ahead for us to catch in the PWR. As much as I hate to say it, I'd like the Fighting Wioux to knock of St. Cloud in the semis, we could still pass the Huskies.

WCHA: We should cheer for Michigan Tech over Bowling Green (Tech too far ahead of us to matter, and Bowling Green is one spot up) and Minnesota State over Ferris State (Minnesota State also too high, and Ferris State is a possible bid stealer).

A lot of moving parts still in place, the bottom line is that if we want to feel safe, we really need to win the BTT. I'd give us less than 50-50 of getting in if we lose our semi-final game, and slightly more than 50-50 if we lose in the title game. Winning the BTT wouldn't just guaranty the bid, it would give us a chance to move up in the tournament seeding in what seems to be a particularly volatile year for the PWR. Next weekend should be wild.
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Just a few comments. Colgate won't pass us unless we drop our semifinal game, in which case it won't matter anyways as odds are 99% likely we are not making the tourney.

My rooting interests are as follows (based on making the road easiest for MN b/c if we lose, the bubble sits at 14 automatically which is not good news for us as we're at 13 already and a loss will drop us):

AHA: don't care
ECAC: Would rather see Quinni win it and be done with it. Other 3 are all bid stealers and Quinni could still sneak in at the back end with one loss, especially if we lose as well. Cheer for StL over Colgate just to make life simpler.
HE: NEED BU to win it. None of the rest will pass us and only get in as bid stealers. Cheer for Vermont over UML as bleeds mentioned.
NCHC: This one's all about dat seeding as all 4 are locks at this point. Take UND over SCSU as we could pass SCSU. Remember there is a 3rd place game here as well so cheer for the Huskies to fall again there. Would take Denver W over Miami to keep Denver in the 1 line and push Miami to 3 line (where we will hopefully/likely be). The NCHC is battle tested and I'd like to have as few of them in our bracket as possible. I'll take matchups vs Tech, Duluth, Omaha or BC over the best of the NCHC any day.
WCHA: Cheer for Tech and Mankato and Mankato to win it all. We would likely jump BG and elims FSU. Plus Mankato winning it would boost our SOS much more than Kato falling obviously.

What the Gophs need to do: Win the tournament is the only way to feel safe. If we play OSU and lose, the season is over regardless of what happens. That would be a rankings tanker. If we draw PSU, there is a little more wiggle room but takes a lot of chalk elsewhere.

Short summary of teams we like: Michigan Tech, Boston U, Quinni (I don't like risking it on hoping we jump them)
Short summary of teams we hate: Bowling Green, UMass Lowell, any team that's a bid stealer that doesn't play in the AHA because they play in the AHA
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/

Yep, this is always fun to play around with this time of year. I constantly reference it during the conference tournaments. This is the real beauty of college hockey over basketball, the field is going to be set on the ice. There is no whining that you got jobbed by the committee (except as it relates to seeding within the field) or that they have some kind of regional or conference bias.

Edit: I just ran the predictor with Penn State beating OSU and then us losing to Penn State in the first round, and not simulating any other games. That moved us to 15 on the outside looking in.
Click to expand...

You gotta update the other games though because somebody will be absorbing losses that surrounds us. Harvard, Quinni, and Colgate can't all stand pat


Edit: I also just ran one and got us to the 8 slot. so the 2 seed is still alive!! hahah
 


I vote the gophers just go ahead and win the next 6 games and hang 3 banners next year
 



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