Gopher's Playoff Tracker

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bleedsmaroonandgold

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With the Gophers sitting currently on the wrong side of the bubble, I decided to start a tracker showing their current situation. I'm drawing my inspiration from some of Selection Sunday's threads over on the hoops board (though this is going to be far less detailed than most of his work, I'm just focusing on the Gophs and how they sit not the whole field).

For those who don't know, unlike basketball where a committee makes subjective determinations informed by various ranking and calculations to set the tournament field, in college hockey the committee is bound by its mathematical process. The top 16 teams according to this process get in. The PWR is the ranking used to set that field (actually, the committee uses something that is slightly different, but the PWR has accurately predicted the tournament field every year it has been in effect I believe). Just like basketball, conference tournament winners get an autobid, so the at-large field is set by the top 16 teams in the PWR minus one spot for any "bid-stealer' (a team not in the top 16 who will go by virtue of winning their tournament).

Updated Post win over OSU on 2/6:
Gophers PWR: Tied for 17th with Vermont
Guaranteed Bid Stealers (conferences with no top 16 teams): Atlantic Hockey
Current Prognosis: Gophers out. Although there is currently only one sure "bid stealer", there are a few other conferences who are poorly represented in the PWR top 16. I'd put the over/under for number of bid stealers at 2.5, so we probably want to get up to number 13 if we want to feel good about our chances for an at-large berth.
 

The next three games are enormous for the season. Finish off the sweep of Ohio State this weekend, and then Michigan comes to town for the biggest series of the year. Win the next three and we probably find ourselves squarely on the bubble with four winnable weekends to go.
 

As of right now, Gophers are on the right side of the bubble. Gotta win next weekend vs Michigan to keep it that way
 

With the Gophers sitting currently near the bubble, I decided to start a tracker showing their current situation. I'm drawing my inspiration from some of Selection Sunday's threads over on the hoops board (though this is going to be far less detailed than most of his work, I'm just focusing on the Gophs and how they sit not the whole field).

For those who don't know, unlike basketball where a committee makes subjective determinations informed by various ranking and calculations to set the tournament field, in college hockey the committee is bound by its mathematical process. The top 16 teams according to this process get in. The PWR is the ranking used to set that field (actually, the committee uses something that is slightly different, but the PWR has accurately predicted the tournament field every year it has been in effect I believe). Just like basketball, conference tournament winners get an autobid, so the at-large field is set by the top 16 teams in the PWR minus one spot for any "bid-stealer' (a team not in the top 16 who will go by virtue of winning their tournament).

Updated Post win over OSU on 2/7:
Gophers PWR: Tied for 13th with Quinnipiac
Guaranteed Bid Stealers (conferences with no top 16 teams): Atlantic Hockey
Current Prognosis: Gophers in. Atlantic Hockey means you need to be top 15, and ECAC only has one top 15 team as of right now, so they are another could candidate to have a bid stealer. That leaves us living on the edge and hoping for no other tournament surprises. I'm surprised the rankings have been as volatile as they have been this year. We have been getting some help, time to capitalize next weekend with the home series against Michigan.
 

I would include the B1G as a conf with alot of potential to produce a bid stealer. Where we and Michigan are in the standings, if we sweep them could they drop down far enough to be outside of the Top 15? If they do, that would be 3 teams, Michigan, PSU and MSU who could legitimately pull off a mini run and win the Conf Tourney. And with where those 3 and the Gophers are rated, it could be that even the regular season conf champs might not be safe from getting bumped from the NCAA tourney by one of our own. So that could be 3 conferences with a good chance of producing a bid stealer.

So Top 13 is probably what a team needs to finish in order to feel safe, is my guess.
 


#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
I would include the B1G as a conf with alot of potential to produce a bid stealer. Where we and Michigan are in the standings, if we sweep them could they drop down far enough to be outside of the Top 15? If they do, that would be 3 teams, Michigan, PSU and MSU who could legitimately pull off a mini run and win the Conf Tourney. And with where those 3 and the Gophers are rated, it could be that even the regular season conf champs might not be safe from getting bumped from the NCAA tourney by one of our own. So that could be 3 conferences with a good chance of producing a bid stealer.

So Top 13 is probably what a team needs to finish in order to feel safe, is my guess.
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I agree with pretty much all of this. I think 13 is probably the right number to aim for to feel safe, and the B1G is definitely ripe for a bid steal. With only 6 teams, even the last place team is only 3 wins from the tournament.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I agree with pretty much all of this. I think 13 is probably the right number to aim for to feel safe, and the B1G is definitely ripe for a bid steal. With only 6 teams, even the last place team is only 3 wins from the tournament.
Click to expand...


Conf Tourney, Top 2 teams get byes the 1st round? So just finishing 2nd means you only need 2 wins?
 


With the Gophers sitting currently near the bubble, I decided to start a tracker showing their current situation. I'm drawing my inspiration from some of Selection Sunday's threads over on the hoops board (though this is going to be far less detailed than most of his work, I'm just focusing on the Gophs and how they sit not the whole field).

For those who don't know, unlike basketball where a committee makes subjective determinations informed by various ranking and calculations to set the tournament field, in college hockey the committee is bound by its mathematical process. The top 16 teams according to this process get in. The PWR is the ranking used to set that field (actually, the committee uses something that is slightly different, but the PWR has accurately predicted the tournament field every year it has been in effect I believe). Just like basketball, conference tournament winners get an autobid, so the at-large field is set by the top 16 teams in the PWR minus one spot for any "bid-stealer' (a team not in the top 16 who will go by virtue of winning their tournament).

Updated Post win over Michigan on 2/13:
Gophers PWR: Tied for 13th with Harvard
Guaranteed Bid Stealers (conferences with no top 16 teams): Atlantic Hockey
Current Prognosis: Gophers in. Atlantic Hockey means you need to be top 15, and ECAC only has one top 15 team as of right now, so they are another could candidate to have a bid stealer. That leaves us living on the edge and hoping for no other tournament surprises. We are actually now in front of Michigan in the pairwise. Obviously, our other way into the tournament would be winning the BTT. Right now, we are one point behind PSU with four games remaining against them and 3 points behind Michigan for the top spot with tonight's game left. If we stay hot, we are certainly in control of our chances to get the bye and even at least a share of the conference championship.
 



With the Gophers sitting currently near the bubble, I decided to start a tracker showing their current situation. I'm drawing my inspiration from some of Selection Sunday's threads over on the hoops board (though this is going to be far less detailed than most of his work, I'm just focusing on the Gophs and how they sit not the whole field).

For those who don't know, unlike basketball where a committee makes subjective determinations informed by various ranking and calculations to set the tournament field, in college hockey the committee is bound by its mathematical process. The top 16 teams according to this process get in. The PWR is the ranking used to set that field (actually, the committee uses something that is slightly different, but the PWR has accurately predicted the tournament field every year it has been in effect I believe). Just like basketball, conference tournament winners get an autobid, so the at-large field is set by the top 16 teams in the PWR minus one spot for any "bid-stealer' (a team not in the top 16 who will go by virtue of winning their tournament).

Updated Post win over Michigan on 2/14:
Gophers PWR: 13th (one pair away from being tied in 10th place)
Guaranteed Bid Stealers (conferences with no top 16 teams): Atlantic Hockey, Big Ten (except for Gophers)
Current Prognosis: Gophers in. Atlantic Hockey means you need to be top 15, and ECAC only has one top 15 team as of right now, so they are another good candidate to have a bid stealer. That leaves us living on the edge and hoping for no other tournament surprises. Michigan is now out of the top 16 teams in the PWR, so I listed the Big Ten as another bid stealing conference. I did this because if the Gophers are our frame of reference, if we are hoping for an at large bid assuming we don't win the BTT, then whoever does win it would be another bid stealer. Gophs are still in 13th, but we are only one pair out of being in a 4 way tie for 10th, so another big weekend could really move us up. In our push for the conference title and the bye, we are now tied in first place, but there are 4 teams within a game of first, so it is tight near the top. Next weekend's series against PSU is against one of those teams, so that is a huge road series for us.
 

Must get at least a split against PSU next week to stay in the hunt.
 

Updated Post win over PSU 2/20:
Gophers PWR: 11th
Guaranteed Bid Stealers (conferences with no top 16 teams): Atlantic Hockey, Big Ten (except for Gophers)
Current Prognosis: Gophers in. If we stay at number 11, we should be safe even if there are a couple of surprises come conference tournament time, just need to keep playing like we are. Also, top 12 means we avoid a first round matchup against a 1 seed. With the losses by Michigan and MSU, we now have sole possession of first place, and have more than a game of cushion above the 3rd place team, so we are in good shape in terms of getting the BTT bye. If we could sweep PSU on the road, that would really put us in a good place going into the last three series.
 

Updated Post loss to PSU 2/21:
Gophers PWR: Tied for 10th with Quinnipiac
Guaranteed Bid Stealers (conferences with no top 16 teams): Atlantic Hockey, Big Ten (except for Gophers)
Current Prognosis: Gophers in. Loss didn't hurt us in the PWR. Would have been nice to get the sweep. With PSU and MSU both winning, our lead over them in the conference standings is back to less than a game, and if Michigan beats OSU today they will be tied with us again and all of the top 4 will have held serve. Fortunately, our last two series against other contenders (MSU and PSU) are both at home. Looking at the schedules the rest of the way out, we should be favored to win the conference even if Michigan wins today. If we take care of business, we should defend our championship, and at the least should get that first round bye.
 



Updated Post win over MSU 2/26:
Gophers PWR: 10th
Guaranteed Bid Stealers (conferences with no top 16 teams): Atlantic Hockey, Big Ten (except for Gophers)
Current Prognosis: Gophers in. We are alone in that 10 spot, which means if we hold there, we are in the tournament even if all six conferences have a bid stealer. Also, we get to remain in first place for another day in the Big Ten. Tomorrow is huge. If we get the sweep, we really knock MSU back in the race this weekend, and I like our schedule best the rest of the way relative to Michigan and PSU (after this weekend at least). Finally, even though they were all but dead, tonight we formally knocked Wisconsin out of contention for the conference title. We are really starting to solidify a spot in the NCAA tournament unless we really lay an egg down the stretch.
 

Updated Post win over OSU 3/6:
Gophers PWR: 11th
Guaranteed Bid Stealers (conferences with no top 16 teams): Atlantic Hockey, Big Ten (except for Gophers)
Current Prognosis: Gophers in. Feeling pretty good about our chances to make it with only a few games left, but we aren't out of the woods yet. Got some help from PSU to work our way back to a tie with Michigan for first. Got to win if we want the title, there is a good chance one of us goes 3-0 the rest of the way. However, we are still less than a game ahead of MSU for that first round bye. With last night's win, we officially locked up one of the top 4 spots in the Big Ten and eliminated OSU from title contention.
 

t14th after losing last night in Columbus....every game from here on out is a must win.
 

Gopher07 said:
t14th after losing last night in Columbus....every game from here on out is a must win.
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Which means they're in really deep trouble because if there's one thing this group has shown, it's that little things like wins don't matter a whole lot.
 

Gopher07 said:
t14th after losing last night in Columbus....every game from here on out is a must win.
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Yep, that put us in a rough spot. If we don't win the BTT, then 14 will be the cut off at best because the Atlantic and B1G autobids will go to not top 16 teams, but it is very likely that there is at least one bid stealer from a conference that is represented (keep your eye on the ECAC). We need a big weekend in the worst possible way. MSU and Michigan play each other next weekend, which is a mixed blessing. On the one hand, in terms of finishing top 2 to get the bye, someone has to lose the games they are playing against each other. On the other hand, looking for a conference title, they obviously can't both get swept.
 

How much more would our Pairwise fall with a split? Likely would leave us "win the tourney or go home"
 


Keep an eye on the other conference tournaments this weekend (especially the ECAC). We could see some potential bid stealers working their way into the last weekend of their respective conference tournaments. I still bet that even if we hold at 14, that is not a tournament position when the dust settles.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Keep an eye on the other conference tournaments this weekend (especially the ECAC). We could see some potential bid stealers working their way into the last weekend of their respective conference tournaments. I still bet that even if we hold at 14, that is not a tournament position when the dust settles.
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The other tourneys will really be interesting to see how they shake out. For Gopher fans, here's who we should be cheering for:

AHA: Doesn't matter. Will be a bid stealer regardless.
ECAC: Need Quinnipiac or Yale to win it. However if Yale or Quinnipiac lose in this round, they will likely get knocked off the bubble (especially given that the ECAC will have a bid stealer). Worst case scenario is Yale and St Law win along w/ Dartmouth and Quinn. Followed by St Law and Dartmouth winning, with Dart winning the autobid. Could end up with as many as 3 or 4 ECAC teams getting in and all in the higher bands. Would really pressure the Gophers to win. Agree with above in taht the ECAC is crucial to keep an eye to gauge how far the Gophers need to rise.
HE: Would like to see BU, BC, or Providence win. Would be major boost if ND can knock Lowell off the bubble this weekend while also boosting our own standing (via the sweep earlier). Still several bid stealers alive here and playing some good hockey.
NCHC: Just want to see any of UND, Denver, Miami, UMD, or Omaha win it. Would be nice to have SCSU lose in first round to knock them off the bubble. All of those top 5 are locks in my book.
WCHA: Tech or Mankato. Bowling Green going down in the first round could knock them off the bubble so root for Northern Michigan.
B10: Need Gopher sweep to feel some comfort. Also given a sweep, we will get one of the top 2 seeds in the B10 tourney which will be very big if we need to win out to get the autobid. Would probably be better if Mich St wins these games as it will officially put Michigan as only being able to win the tourney to get in (they're really close to being there already).

Should be a damn fun weekend. Let's hope the team can send the seniors out on top of the B10 and we get some reassurance from the other conferences. But as that goes, the team controls it's own fate. Right now would be a pretty good time to rip off 4 straight W's and leave no doubt as we peak for another Frozen Four run
 

upnorthkid said:
The other tourneys will really be interesting to see how they shake out. For Gopher fans, here's who we should be cheering for:

AHA: Doesn't matter. Will be a bid stealer regardless.
ECAC: Need Quinnipiac or Yale to win it. However if Yale or Quinnipiac lose in this round, they will likely get knocked off the bubble (especially given that the ECAC will have a bid stealer). Worst case scenario is Yale and St Law win along w/ Dartmouth and Quinn. Followed by St Law and Dartmouth winning, with Dart winning the autobid. Could end up with as many as 3 or 4 ECAC teams getting in and all in the higher bands. Would really pressure the Gophers to win. Agree with above in taht the ECAC is crucial to keep an eye to gauge how far the Gophers need to rise.
HE: Would like to see BU, BC, or Providence win. Would be major boost if ND can knock Lowell off the bubble this weekend while also boosting our own standing (via the sweep earlier). Still several bid stealers alive here and playing some good hockey.
NCHC: Just want to see any of UND, Denver, Miami, UMD, or Omaha win it. Would be nice to have SCSU lose in first round to knock them off the bubble. All of those top 5 are locks in my book.
WCHA: Tech or Mankato. Bowling Green going down in the first round could knock them off the bubble so root for Northern Michigan.
B10: Need Gopher sweep to feel some comfort. Also given a sweep, we will get one of the top 2 seeds in the B10 tourney which will be very big if we need to win out to get the autobid. Would probably be better if Mich St wins these games as it will officially put Michigan as only being able to win the tourney to get in (they're really close to being there already).

Should be a damn fun weekend. Let's hope the team can send the seniors out on top of the B10 and we get some reassurance from the other conferences. But as that goes, the team controls it's own fate. Right now would be a pretty good time to rip off 4 straight W's and leave no doubt as we peak for another Frozen Four run
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Thanks for running through all of that for us. The interesting thing about a team like Gopher hockey have a disappointing year is that, no matter how bad we have played for stretches, you feel like as long as we get in the tourney (regardless of seed), we could play well and rattle off four wins against anyone in the country and win it all.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Thanks for running through all of that for us. The interesting thing about a team like Gopher hockey have a disappointing year is that, no matter how bad we have played for stretches, you feel like as long as we get in the tourney (regardless of seed), we could play well and rattle off four wins against anyone in the country and win it all.
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Exactly. View this team as similar to NoDak last year where no one really wanted to match up with them in the tourney. They were talented and really underachieved and even took some luck to get in but they dismantled Wisco and I was nervous about that game and expected a battle (which we got). If they get in this year as a 4, you know none of the 1 seeds want to draw that matchup
 

Yale and Harvard playing elimination games this weekend. Harvard takes game 1 with about 2:30 left in the game. Loser of that series is out, which is significant b/c they are the 2 teams directly below us in the pairwise. Other early notables saw Providence drop game 1 against New Hampshire. Them being swept could put them on the wrong side of the bubble (they currently sit at 10 with plenty of games left tonight). Otherwise things have gone fine for the Gophers standings. Just gotta get our W's.
 

With the MSU loss, we are now tied with Michigan in first place. For all the troubles the team has had this year, we are a home win against Penn State away from at least a share of the conference title. In terms of seeding implications, Michigan holds the tiebreaker with more B1G wins than we do, so if we both win, they get the top seed in BTT, if we both lose, we get third seed and lose the bye. Anything from 1-3 is very possible in terms of seeding. Like North Kid said, things aren't going too terribly across the country for us (but tonight doesn't lock anything up, I think that every other conference is in a 2 out of 3 round, so no one gets eliminated tonight).
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
With the MSU loss, we are now tied with Michigan in first place. For all the troubles the team has had this year, we are a home win against Penn State away from at least a share of the conference title. In terms of seeding implications, Michigan holds the tiebreaker with more B1G wins than we do, so if we both win, they get the top seed in BTT, if we both lose, we get third seed and lose the bye. Anything from 1-3 is very possible in terms of seeding. Like North Kid said, things aren't going too terribly across the country for us (but tonight doesn't lock anything up, I think that every other conference is in a 2 out of 3 round, so no one gets eliminated tonight).
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Agreed. Only things would've liked to see would've been Quinnipiac going down in 3OT to Union or BGSU losing. Side note, really weird game between Alabama Huntsville and Mich Tech. In 3OT right now. Shots 71-26 in favor of Tech. Score? 0-0. Amazing performance by Guerrero for UAH. Would be nice to see Providence drop another game tomorrow night. Would likely drop below us if we win.
 

Looks like Michigan State beat Michigan. So now our BTT fate doesn't depend on anyone else.
1) Win or tie and win the shootout: outright champs and 1 seed
2) Tie and lose the shootout: co-champs with Sparty and 1 seed
3) Lose: tied for second with Michigan, 3 seed, no bye
 

I've got to believe this puts us in pretty good position to make it to the tourney regardless of the BT tourney. Obviously it would be good to get at least one win to make sure.

Now 10-3-1 in the last 14 games.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I've got to believe this puts us in pretty good position to make it to the tourney regardless of the BT tourney. Obviously it would be good to get at least one win to make sure.

Now 10-3-1 in the last 14 games.
Click to expand...

According to the updated Pairwise (as of about two minutes ago), the Gophers are sitting at 12. Not a lock, but there's a good chance that we should get in even with a loss in the first game of the BTT.

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-men/
 

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