Gophers open as 4 point favorites vs. Maryland

I want to agree … but I think this Maryland team, even with its injury problem, would box Bowling Green’s ears. If Tagovailoa has a hot hand, our offense will have to put forth another balanced attack. We are winning now with complementary football. Both D and O must play well. And they are now. No need to regress.
Like I said if we played average ball we would’ve rolled BG too. I don’t see how Taulia will get overly hot with his best and second or third best wrs out. We have to play poorly to lose this game.
 


Announced today that Maryland has lost two more starters to injury for the rest of the season.

Gophs should win this game by at least 10-14 points.

Maryland is putrid.
 

We can't just show up and expect to win. Maryland has the same record as us and is coming off the bye. We can't take this game lightly. It has to be full throttle from the get go otherwise it could be bowling green redux
 

Announced today that Maryland has lost two more starters to injury for the rest of the season.

Gophs should win this game by at least 10-14 points.

Maryland is putrid.
Artificially inflate expectations so you can whine if they don't meet them - fraud!
 



Artificially inflate expectations so you can whine if they don't meet them - fraud!

That's a trick that has been popular for years. I remember Barreiro pulling that one out back in 2016. His line back then: the Gopher football schedule is so easy, if they don't win 10 games Claeys should be fired, or some such.
 

That's a trick that has been popular for years. I remember Barreiro pulling that one out back in 2016. His line back then: the Gopher football schedule is so easy, if they don't win 10 games Claeys should be fired, or some such.

Well, if that's what he said, then it turns out that he was right about the outcome. The 2016 schedule was easy and the season was fairly disappointing until the team redeemed itself by winning a tense defensive battle in the Holiday Bowl.
 

Well, if that's what he said, then it turns out that he was right about the outcome. The 2016 schedule was easy and the season was fairly disappointing until the team redeemed itself by winning a tense defensive battle in the Holiday Bowl.

He said the stuff about winning 10 games right before the opener in Happy Valley against Penn State — a team Barreiro described as 'mediocre'. The Gophers lost to Penn State in overtime. And Barreiro viewed that loss as disgraceful, of course.

Gophers went 9-3 after that. Penn State "mediocre-d" themselves to a B1G Championship win.
 
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Regarding my earlier Barreiro comments:

To me, if you observe the people who follow sports and who write/comment about sports (either professionally or as fans), there seem to be four basic personality types:

1) Eternal optimists. Every season, they say "This is our year!"

2) Doom and gloomers. The opponent is always better than us. We're condemned to our fate as eternal losers.

3) Realists. They see sports as a series of successes and failures.

4) Cynical manipulators/trolls.
 

Well, if that's what he said, then it turns out that he was right about the outcome. The 2016 schedule was easy and the season was fairly disappointing until the team redeemed itself by winning a tense defensive battle in the Holiday Bowl.
I don't know that it is fair to call the 2016 season disappointing. It was a fairly soft schedule but regardless, we won the games we were supposed to and lost the games we were expected to during the regular season. The only surprising result was the Bowl Game. In the end we finished with a winning record in conference play and that is always a good thing.
 

I want to agree … but I think this Maryland team, even with its injury problem, would box Bowling Green’s ears. If Tagovailoa has a hot hand, our offense will have to put forth another balanced attack. We are winning now with complementary football. Both D and O must play well. And they are now. No need to regress.
Yep.

The Big Ten, to a lesser extent but still to a significant extent, is like the NFL: teams that are expected to not do much, suddenly do crazy things.

These are all programs with a lot of money, and a lot of (raw) talent, no matter how bottom feeder they are. Players who are 3* recruits, still are potentially very good football players, no matter much they "bore" their fans recruiting desires.

Every Big Ten win is huge.
 



I don't know that it is fair to call the 2016 season disappointing. It was a fairly soft schedule but regardless, we won the games we were supposed to and lost the games we were expected to during the regular season. The only surprising result was the Bowl Game. In the end we finished with a winning record in conference play and that is always a good thing.
With the 3rd-string Center, playing the game of his life.
 

We can't just show up and expect to win. Maryland has the same record as us and is coming off the bye. We can't take this game lightly. It has to be full throttle from the get go otherwise it could be bowling green redux
We have the same record, but they have had an easier schedule. We definitely aren't good enough to just show up and expect to win. Felt like that's what happened against Bowling Green, the whole game we looked like we knew we were the better team and just eventually expected the score to sort itself out. If we do that, we can (and probably will) lose to Maryland. That said, I think we are enough of a better team (and the Sagarin ratings seem to back this up), that if Maryland beats us, it will be because we gave them a lot of help.

Maryland/NW/Illinois and the "if we are who we think we are, we win these games" part of the schedule. We need to survive those three, and then see what we can do in the "prove it" part of the schedule with Iowa and Wisconsin.
 

Maryland will be coming off a bye week, after two absolute beatings from Iowa and Ohio State. They aren't just going to keep doing those same things over and over, that they did in those games. They're going to try something different.

They're going to look at what has worked against us, on tape of teams that have played us, and try to do that. That's what I would do, if I were them, anyway. And if I can figure that out, well ...

This is a huge game for how the rest of their season is going to go. They're going to give us their best shot. They feel they can win this game.
 

Maryland will be coming off a bye week, after two absolute beatings from Iowa and Ohio State. They aren't just going to keep doing those same things over and over, that they did in those games. They're going to try something different.

They're going to look at what has worked against us, on tape of teams that have played us, and try to do that. That's what I would do, if I were them, anyway. And if I can figure that out, well ...

This is a huge game for how the rest of their season is going to go. They're going to give us their best shot. They feel they can win this game.
Maryland always has a decent running game. They have 3 good running backs, all pretty big and powerful. Our run defense this year has been exceptional. One of the better run defenses in the country, not just the B1G. We just need to keep at it.

Tagovailoa is a very good passer, and a gifted athlete. He can roll out and take off running. Very shifty in the open field. But he is smallish and seems to run (so far this year) only when pass coverage is too good. Maryland hasn’t been running designed QB options, but maybe with a bye week (dealing with the loss of 2 of their top 3 WRs), a QB running option gets installed. I assume the Gophs will be prepared for this possible wrinkle (having just played Martinez).

Maryland’s defense has also been hurt by injuries. It’s dominant OLB (Nchami) is now out for the season. His place is being taken by a 5* true freshman. Maryland might have their starting MLB and two starting CBs back from injuries. Day to day, but leaning toward playing per Locksley. Maryland is a sack machine on defense with 30 so far this season, leading the B1G. But Maryland’s defense is also giving up a lot of yardage this season. If we have Morgan passing out of our “heavy” formation, and can keep his jersey clean, our receivers could have a very respectable day … and make it easier for our running game to have a very respectable day.

Should be a very entertaining game. If the Gopher team that played Nebraska and Purdue shows up, and we go with a balanced offensive game plan (forcing Maryland’s defense, inexperienced at a couple of spots, to think), and we don’t give Maryland any short fields on untimely turnovers, Maryland’s chances to pull off a road upset go down a lot.
 
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Maryland’s defense has also been hurt by injuries. It’s dominant OLB (Nchami) is now out for the season. His place is being taken by a 5* true freshman. Maryland might have their starting MLB and two starting CBs back from injuries. Day to day, but leaning toward playing per Locksley. Maryland is a sack machine on defense with 30 so far this season, leading the B1G. If we have Morgan passing out of our “heavy” formation, and can keep his jersey clean, our receivers could have a respectable day … and make it easier for our running game to have a respectable day.
That 30 sack total jumped out at me as well but something felt off about it. The reality is the stats on BigTen.org are wrong. They show Maryland as having played 8 games as opposed to the 6 they have actually played. They also have Illinois with only 5 games to this point as opposed to the 7 they have played so maybe they put some Illinois Stats in the Maryland column or something along those lines. Looking again they also show Rutgers as having played 9 games so who knows what is going on with them right now.

Regardless - Maryland's real sack number through 6 games is 19. Good for a second place tie in the conference but not nearly as impressive as the 30 looked. Plus, of those 19, 11 of them came in just 2 games (Kent State, Illinois) so they only have 8 in their other 4 games.
 

That 30 sack total jumped out at me as well but something felt off about it. The reality is the stats on BigTen.org are wrong. They show Maryland as having played 8 games as opposed to the 6 they have actually played. They also have Illinois with only 5 games to this point as opposed to the 7 they have played so maybe they put some Illinois Stats in the Maryland column or something along those lines. Looking again they also show Rutgers as having played 9 games so who knows what is going on with them right now.

Regardless - Maryland's real sack number through 6 games is 19. Good for a second place tie in the conference but not nearly as impressive as the 30 looked. Plus, of those 19, 11 of them came in just 2 games (Kent State, Illinois) so they only have 8 in their other 4 games.
Thanks, I was shocked by the 30 sacks number and confused by the variation in games played in the team stats list. But the B1G is publishing the numbers as official, so …

19 is still a big number, but a back-to-earth number. Makes me feel a little better. Whew …. Kevin Warren needs to investigate this disinformation campaign by moles in the B1G stat department. 🤓
 


I'm a little surprised by the Wisconsin over Purdue projected win margin and probability (I stole the spreadsheet from your Tweet link below). It must be about the defense.

View attachment 14890
Gotta be about Wisconsin’s defense. If Bell plays for Purdue, and O’Connell has time to throw, I think Purdue has a chance. Wisconsin will stop Purdue’s rushing attack cold. But it seems like the odds makers aren’t giving enough respect to Purdue’s defense, which has been very solid this year and could suppress WI’s tepid offense. Unless a different Mertz shows up, I think Purdue can hold WI to 17-20 points. Heck, Army held WI to 20 points last week. So, the odds seem to be a bet that WI’s great defense is able to thoroughly disrupt Purdue’s aerial circus offense. Should be a fun game. Apart from OSU, the Big Ten is really interesting this year!
 


Maryland will be coming off a bye week, after two absolute beatings from Iowa and Ohio State. They aren't just going to keep doing those same things over and over, that they did in those games. They're going to try something different.

They're going to look at what has worked against us, on tape of teams that have played us, and try to do that. That's what I would do, if I were them, anyway. And if I can figure that out, well ...

This is a huge game for how the rest of their season is going to go. They're going to give us their best shot. They feel they can win this game.
Funny thing is, tape doesn't tell them much. There is no tape of Sanford's thought process. You can see on tape we are capable of playing offense like the 2019 team but you can also find evidence to the contrary.

Maybe that is Sanford's grand strategy -- you force them to prepare both for everything and for nothing.
 

Maryland always has a decent running game. They have 3 good running backs, all pretty big and powerful. Our run defense this year has been exceptional. One of the better run defenses in the country, not just the B1G. We just need to keep at it.

Tagovailoa is a very good passer, and a gifted athlete. He can roll out and take off running. Very shifty in the open field. But he is smallish and seems to run (so far this year) only when pass coverage is too good. Maryland hasn’t been running designed QB options, but maybe with a bye week (dealing with the loss of 2 of their top 3 WRs), a QB running option gets installed. I assume the Gophs will be prepared for this possible wrinkle (having just played Martinez).

Maryland’s defense has also been hurt by injuries. It’s dominant OLB (Nchami) is now out for the season. His place is being taken by a 5* true freshman. Maryland might have their starting MLB and two starting CBs back from injuries. Day to day, but leaning toward playing per Locksley. Maryland is a sack machine on defense with 30 so far this season, leading the B1G. But Maryland’s defense is also giving up a lot of yardage this season. If we have Morgan passing out of our “heavy” formation, and can keep his jersey clean, our receivers could have a very respectable day … and make it easier for our running game to have a very respectable day.

Should be a very entertaining game. If the Gopher team that played Nebraska and Purdue shows up, and we go with a balanced offensive game plan (forcing Maryland’s defense, inexperienced at a couple of spots, to think), and we don’t give Maryland any short fields on untimely turnovers, Maryland’s chances to pull off a road upset go down a lot.
Tagovailoa has good stats but that INT number jumps off the page for me.
 

He said the stuff about winning 10 games right before the opener in Happy Valley against Penn State — a team Barreiro described as 'mediocre'. The Gophers lost to Penn State in overtime. And Barreiro viewed that loss as disgraceful, of course.

Gophers went 9-3 after that. Penn State "mediocre-d" "Saquon-Barkley'd themselves to a B1G Championship win.
fify
 

Tagovailoa has good stats but that INT number jumps off the page for me.
5 ints against Iowa in game with a negative game script is an outlier, so I'm withholding judgement on his propensity for picks as of now.
 


Five of his INTs came in one game, against Iowa. In the other five games, he wasn’t as bad/unlucky.
Very true, doesn't negate that he still threw them. One was tipped and the others looked pretty bad, and he had good time to throw. Opportunity for Gophs defense.
 

Very true, doesn't negate that he still threw them. One was tipped and the others looked pretty bad, and he had good time to throw. Opportunity for Gophs defense.
Agree. I think we will hem in Maryland’s running game. Tagovailoa will throw 40 passes. Hopefully a lot of incompletes and 3 or 4 picks!
 

Just rewatched last year’s game highlights versus Maryland. Wow…we lost on a missed extra point in the 1st OT and lost a 17 point lead!

Maryland’s WR, RB (Funk), and QB sliced and diced right through our defense like a hot knife through butter!

Man, did our 7 and 24 had an amazing game though!

Pumped for Saturday’s revenge 🙌
 
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