Gophers Bowl Projection

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GopherFanatic19

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I have scanned the internet and see that the majority of sports stations predict the Gophers will play against West Virginia in a bowl game.

I think this would be a good game considering how high West Virginia was early in the year, I just dont think we stand a chance winning. My opinion on that could change depending on how well we play against Neb and Mich State.

Thoughts?
 

First we have to win Saturday. Hard to see anything good in Lincoln, and MSU will be very tough, though weather may be a factor. WV would be a trial for us.
 

I really don't see the point of trying to project bowl matchups right now. A lot has to shake out in the next few weeks in terms of which teams get in and which ones don't. I also agree it is pointless to speculate on the Gophers bowl opponent prior to the team even winning 6 games because the reality is that if they find a way to blow this very winnable game tomorrow odds are very good at that point that 6 wins ain't happening this season.
 

The more people talk about what bowl game we are going to, the more nervous I get about tomorrow's game.
 




MNVCGUY said:
I really don't see the point of trying to project bowl matchups right now. A lot has to shake out in the next few weeks in terms of which teams get in and which ones don't. I also agree it is pointless to speculate on the Gophers bowl opponent prior to the team even winning 6 games because the reality is that if they find a way to blow this very winnable game tomorrow odds are very good at that point that 6 wins ain't happening this season.
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Hmm...this is a tough one. Should GopherFanatic19 ask the mods to delete this thread or will a public apology to everyone he has offended with this thread suffice?
 

station19 said:
That's what everyone said about the 98 Vikings.
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'98 Vikings...best Vikings team in 30 years. Team of destiny. 2012 Gophers, desperately hoping to get to 6-6 and the Texas Bowl. Hmm...not quite so nervous about the jinx here.
 

howeda7 said:
'98 Vikings...best Vikings team in 30 years. Team of destiny. 2012 Gophers, desperately hoping to get to 6-6 and the Texas Bowl. Hmm...not quite so nervous about the jinx here.
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Just a reminder the best team doesn't always win.
 



http://www.bowlpredictor.com/

From the website:

This was designed by Jack Cackler, a doctoral student in Biostatistics at Harvard University.

To make winter travel plans with better information, this site graphically illustrates of all of the bowls a team might play in, how likely they are, and where and when each bowl will be.

Use the drop down menu to search teams by conference, only view the top 25 teams, or view each bowl by which teams might play.

Feel free to contact me at [email protected].
 

Maximus said:
Hmm...this is a tough one. Should GopherFanatic19 ask the mods to delete this thread or will a public apology to everyone he has offended with this thread suffice?
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Please show me where in my post I say I am offended by the question/thread. People are free to speculate all they want about destinations and opponents, it's a message board it is for sharing opinions. My opinion is it makes more sense to A. Wait till the team is Bowl eligible and B. Let a few more weeks play out before giving much thought to where a team is going to end up and who they will be against since there is still a ton to be decided in terms of who gets in and who doesn't.
 

Station19

station19 said:
Just a reminder the best team doesn't always win.
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How quickly we forget. As a very wise man once said to me that is why they play the game. I think he also said that the design of the football makes it take very strange bounces that can effect the result of the game. Actually the guy who said that was Bud Grant who also said what is important is not necessarily who you play but when you play them.

But my favorite which I believe may be a NFL saying is that on any given Sunday anybody can win.

Go Gophers!
 

Over the last couple days there was a thread discussing some bizarre scenarios which could send a B1G team to an at-large BCS berth. If that happens, the Gophers could potentially be in the fourth best Big Ten bowl, as the B1G could send only 5 teams to bowl games and if we get an at-large bid then everyone moves up a notch. To illustrate how we might only have 5 bowl-eligible teams, I'll outline what has to happen to the other 7.
1) OSU: ineligible by probation
2) PSU: ineligible by probation
3) Illinois: couldn't find sand in the dessert, winning out would not get them to six

That's three teams which can't make it.

4) Iowa: one loss away from elimination, needs win at Michigan and vs Nebraska. No way the Hawkeyes pull off two miracles, I'll put them in the category of almost certainly not.
5) Indiana: one loss away from elimination, needs two win both remaining games, including at Penn State. I'll also put that in the "mathematically possible, but no way" category.

That's 5 total teams who are practically eliminated, and we could at most send 7.

6) Purdue: one loss away, needs a win at Illinois and home against Indiana. I wouldn't bet against Purdue in either of those games individually, but I'd give even money that a team as bad as Purdue finds a way to lose either on the road to a terrible team or at home against an Indiana team which got roughed up this weekend but hasn't looked totally lost this year.
7) MSU: needs one win either home against Northwestern or on the road at the Gophers. I'd bet on Northwestern against MSU, and if that falls into place, MSU comes into Minnesota with the pressure of potentially missing a bowl game against a hungry Gopher team that has a chance to improve their bowl position with a win.

A lot has to fall into place, but I don't think the scenario above involves anything too crazy like Illinois winning at Nebraska. The biggest stretch is MSU at TCF Bank, and that is the one that we control. Of course, if we pull off the miracle at Lincoln, we put ourselves in very good bowl position.
 



bleedsmaroonandgold said:
3) Illinois: couldn't find sand in the dessert, winning out would not get them to six
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If Illinois found sand in their dessert, would they still eat it?

Seriously, to make any bowl projections for just about any team right now is fun, but ludicrous. Hundreds of variables.

OSU and PSU ineligible. Illinois and Iowa are dead. Indiana and Purdue on life support, one will officially eliminate the other. Likely neither will go bowling, Illinois hosts the Boilers next week. MSU looking for a pardon from the Governor.

Gator Bowl not out of reach. What fun. Great thing for all is no Pizza Bowl this year for the B1G.
 

highwayman said:


If Illinois found sand in their dessert, would they still eat it?

Seriously, to make any bowl projections for just about any team right now is fun, but ludicrous. Hundreds of variables.

OSU and PSU ineligible. Illinois and Iowa are dead. Indiana and Purdue on life support, one will officially eliminate the other. Likely neither will go bowling, Illinois hosts the Boilers next week. MSU looking for a pardon from the Governor.

Gator Bowl not out of reach. What fun. Great thing for all is no Pizza Bowl this year for the B1G.
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The great news for the Gophers is that even if we end up 6-6 we will go to a fairly high bowl in the Big Ten pecking order simply by virtue of two teams that would definitely be above us being ineligible for the post season. The downside of course is it probably means a tougher opponent as well.

The way the records are shaking out this year is why I hate the bowl setup. It is great that we live in an era where everyone gets a trophy but it is amazing the number of teams that get rewarded for being average to below average. It will NEVER happen but I wold love to see .500 in your conference being the minimum requirement to go to a bowl game. Of course under that scenario the only locks this year would be Neb, Mich, and Wisconsin.

The NCAA can't/won't do it because they need enough teams to fill all the spots available but the real change I would like to see with the 12 game schedules would be 7-5 being a minimum record to go to a bowl. Again won't happen because if they did that there would be too many games that would not have a team to play in it.
 

Hopefully we dont get skipped over again if Iowa or Purdue get lucky enough to become eligible. Why I still refuse to patronize San Antonio after they slighted us in the Alamo Bowl.
 

BeerBibleBullets said:
Hopefully we dont get skipped over again if Iowa or Purdue get lucky enough to become eligible. Why I still refuse to patronize San Antonio after they slighted us in the Alamo Bowl.
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I also refuse to visit San Antonio because of the Alamo Bowl's refusal to take us on three separate occasions, and using contradicting reasons each time.

If Iowa somehow beat Michigan and Nebraska to become eligible, they would certainly get chosen ahead of us, and deservedly so. Back-to-back wins over ranked teams, a fan base that travels, and they won the head-to-head matchup. Purdue, on the other hand, probably not. Three straight wins to close the season would be a good amount of momentum, but the only energy the fan base has is to get rid of the coach. And the Gophers clobbered the Boilers, not that head-to-head always matters (see: Alamo Bowl).

I'd say with about 90% certainty we're headed to Houston. The Gator Bowl is not going to happen, even with wins over Nebraska and Michigan State. If MSU is eligible, they would go ahead of us because the Gator Bowl prefers bigger names. And if MSU isn't eligible, that means they lost to Northwestern, who would likely finish 9-3 (including a win over Minnesota) and has a fan base that has shown it can travel. Tempe is possible, only if MSU does not reach six wins.
 

Jike Spingleton said:
I also refuse to visit San Antonio because of the Alamo Bowl's refusal to take us on three separate occasions, and using contradicting reasons each time.

If Iowa somehow beat Michigan and Nebraska to become eligible, they would certainly get chosen ahead of us, and deservedly so. Back-to-back wins over ranked teams, a fan base that travels, and they won the head-to-head matchup. Purdue, on the other hand, probably not. Three straight wins to close the season would be a good amount of momentum, but the only energy the fan base has is to get rid of the coach. And the Gophers clobbered the Boilers, not that head-to-head always matters (see: Alamo Bowl).

I'd say with about 90% certainty we're headed to Houston. The Gator Bowl is not going to happen, even with wins over Nebraska and Michigan State. If MSU is eligible, they would go ahead of us because the Gator Bowl prefers bigger names. And if MSU isn't eligible, that means they lost to Northwestern, who would likely finish 9-3 (including a win over Minnesota) and has a fan base that has shown it can travel. Tempe is possible, only if MSU does not reach six wins.
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I have never fully understood the bowl process. However, it was my understanding that the B1G teams were ranked based on their B1G record and that was sort of the "presumptive" pecking order for bowls. If that were the case, and Purdue won out, they would be 3-5 and therefore ahead of us unless we won one more. After that, I think they start to jumble stuff for considerations about how well they expect fan bases to travel and whatever else they want to consider. Take my comment with a grain of salt though, because I am still trying to figure the whole system out.
 

I think with wins over Nebraska and MSU that the Gophers would get the nod over Northwestern provided they finish with a better record (i.e. MSU beats NU to become bowl eligible, NU beats Illinois). In this scenario they'd be on better than NU and two better than MSU. This IMHO is the only path to the Gator Bowl.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
it was my understanding that the B1G teams were ranked based on their B1G record and that was sort of the "presumptive" pecking order for bowls.
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While I wish that were the case - it would benefit the Gophers greatly most of the time - it simply isn't true. As I said in another thread, there are only a few rules when it comes to the Big Ten's bowl selection process:

1. The champion, if not ranked #1 or 2 in the BCS, goes to the Rose Bowl.
2. The Capital One and Outback bowls cannot bypass one team for another with 2+ fewer overall victories.
3. The 4th-place bowl (either the Gator or BW3, depending on the year) must select the Big Ten Championship Game loser, if still available.

Other than that, it's up to the bowls to decide who they think will bring in the most money through ticket sales, hotel room reservations, TV ratings, etc. The Gophers rank low in all categories.
 

badgergopher said:
I think with wins over Nebraska and MSU that the Gophers would get the nod over Northwestern provided they finish with a better record (i.e. MSU beats NU to become bowl eligible, NU beats Illinois). In this scenario they'd be on better than NU and two better than MSU. This IMHO is the only path to the Gator Bowl.
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In your scenario, Northwestern and Minnesota both finish 8-4 - Northwestern won the head-to-head meeting, and has a better travel history than Minnesota. They'd get the nod. But in reality, a 6-6 Michigan State would probably still get selected by the Gator Bowl, who has already indicated they want to get the biggest "name" possible, although a 9-3 Northwestern would probably be enough to sway them.
 

Here are the payouts for B1G bowls, if anyone is interested (per team, from http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bowl_games_bowl_schedule.html):

Little Caesar's: $850,000
Meineke Car Care Bowl: $1,700,000
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: $3,350,000
Heart of Dallas Bowl: $1,100,000
Gator Bowl: $3,500,000
Outback Bowl: $3,500,000
Capital One Bowl: $4,550,000
Rose Bowl: $17,000,000
 

ESPN Projections:


Rose Bowl, Jan. 1: Nebraska
Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1: Michigan
Outback Bowl, Jan. 1: Wisconsin
Gator Bowl, Jan. 1: Northwestern
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, Dec. 29: Michigan State
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas, Dec. 28: Minnesota
Heart of Dallas Bowl, Jan. 1: Purdue
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Dec. 26: At-large (not filled by Big Ten)

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/64912/big-ten-bowl-projections-week-12-4

Go Gophers!!
 

Jike Spingleton said:
In your scenario, Northwestern and Minnesota both finish 8-4 - Northwestern won the head-to-head meeting, and has a better travel history than Minnesota. They'd get the nod. But in reality, a 6-6 Michigan State would probably still get selected by the Gator Bowl, who has already indicated they want to get the biggest "name" possible, although a 9-3 Northwestern would probably be enough to sway them.
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I stand corrected. Gator doesn't seem possible.
 


Nothing more than a blind gut-feeling, but the Heart of Dallas bowl keeps sticking out at me every time i see it in print. I don't gamble, but i'm putting my 2 cents on it.
 

BW3s is headquartered in Minnesota. If you don't think they're after the gophs, you're nuts.
 

What years did we get snubbed from the Alamo Bowl? 1999 and 2003?
 

CrocShots said:
BW3s is headquartered in Minnesota. If you don't think they're after the gophs, you're nuts.
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I don't think the sponsor likely has a big say in it. More likely it is a local bowl committee (chamber of commerce type people). Filling hotels in town and capturing viewers on TV are probably the top two goals.
 

My hope is the Heart of Dallas Bowl due to the venue.
Heart of Dallas = Cotton Bowl; a 82 year-old icon in College Football.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl = Insight Bowl in Sun Devil Stadium. Been there, done that x2.
Meineke Care Care Bowl = 10 year old bland/boring pro stadium in the least appealing City of the 3.

Sun Country has flights to Dallas & Phoenix, but not Houston.
 

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