Gophers 18 point dogs for the opener.

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That's a pretty fair line in my opinion. If you are looking to bet on the Gophers, though, I would wait because I'm sure the rest of the country will be hitting USC-18 so I would expect that number to grow.
 

Wow, no respect. I'll take the Gophers +18, easy money.
 

I will only bet on this game if/when lakesbison gives us his expert advice.
 

That's ridiculous. The Gophers gave us a game last season, all we could handle.
 



Not surprised

Although the Gophers hung around for about three quarters, USC took the game over when they needed to.
18 points for this year seems about right. Kiffin is in his second year. Barkley is more experienced. The sanctions are no longer new. The game is at USC.

For the Gophers, we have a new coaching staff. We have a new quarterback. We're on the road, and it's the first game. 35-17 sounds about right. Looks like Vegas wins again.

I saw quite a few celebritiy types sitting at TCF Bank Stadium last year. Pat Haden, Lynn Swann, A.C. Cowling, and a few others. Which Minnesota celebrities will be heading to LA? Yanni? Garrison Keillor? Jesse Ventura? It's okay to be in awe of our homegrown stars. :cool03:
 


CWCWCW said:
Although the Gophers hung around for about three quarters, USC took the game over when they needed to.
18 points for this year seems about right. Kiffin is in his second year. Barkley is more experienced. The sanctions are no longer new. The game is at USC.

For the Gophers, we have a new coaching staff. We have a new quarterback. We're on the road, and it's the first game. 35-17 sounds about right. Looks like Vegas wins again.

I saw quite a few celebritiy types sitting at TCF Bank Stadium last year. Pat Haden, Lynn Swann, A.C. Cowling, and a few others. Which Minnesota celebrities will be heading to LA? Yanni? Garrison Keillor? Jesse Ventura? It's okay to be in awe of our homegrown stars. :cool03:
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Exactly. First game with a new QB, Coaching staff and it's on the road against USC? I mean Marquise Gray is the absolute key in us doing anything at all this year and he has barely played QB since his junior year in high school....and when he has it hasn't been too pretty. So I think the 18 is dead on.
 



scools12 said:
vegas loves people just like you.
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Really? I live in Pac 10 country, I saw a lot of USC last year, IMO they really weren't that impressive. The Gophers played them tough last year with a *&^!#*&^!#*&^!#*&^!# poor coaching staff. In addition, USC will be without their starting RB (Marc Tyler has been suspended for the first game), they lost their number 2 & 3 WR's, they will also be replacing 4 of their starters on the OL and their defense gave up 400+ yards a game last year. They do have a lot of talent but they are very young, they will need time to gel. I see no reason the Gophers cannot keep this game within 18 points.
 

I would take the points. SC has serious o line and d line issues. Stop the pass and it's close. I live close to sc and read all the local hype every year. The spread will go up with all the myopic sc $$$ pooring into vegas. They are young and thin on the lines. Shock the world! GO GOPHERS!
 

All I will say is some USC fans that were sitting behind us had LOTS of money on SC to cover the spread last season. They didn't. They were pissed.

And I laughed at them which made them more pissed.
 

DAMN! I just got back from Vegas on Friday and totally forgot to ask about NCAA lines! I would have taken the Gophers +18 for sure. If anyone is going to LV in the next couple weeks, let me know...I'll seriously mail you a check to lay a little money on the game for me.
 



CWCWCW said:
I saw quite a few celebritiy types sitting at TCF Bank Stadium last year. Pat Haden, Lynn Swann, A.C. Cowling, and a few others. Which Minnesota celebrities will be heading to LA? Yanni? Garrison Keillor? Jesse Ventura? It's okay to be in awe of our homegrown stars. :cool03:
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What does this have to do with what the point spread should be, or how the game will turn out? I'm sure Coach Kill will let the kids know what since there are no famous Minnesotans coming for the game, they should just pack it in.

Also, how is Pat Haden a celeb? He's the AD at USC! I bet Maturi makes the trip, is he a celeb? And wasn't Lynn Swann working the game for ABC last year?
 

Huh?

Gopherocious said:
What does this have to do with what the point spread should be, or how the game will turn out? I'm sure Coach Kill will let the kids know what since there are no famous Minnesotans coming for the game, they should just pack it in.

Also, how is Pat Haden a celeb? He's the AD at USC! I bet Maturi makes the trip, is he a celeb? And wasn't Lynn Swann working the game for ABC last year?
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That was just part of my response that you quoted. Just having a little fun with our lack of local celebrities. Personally, I'm just fine with that.
Many may recall Pat Haden in his NFL days. Not many realize that Joel played for the Chisholm Bluestreaks. Lynn Swann, A.C. and others were just fans that I spotted in their seats.

I don't think Coach Kill is concerned with who shows up at SC. I never implied that. I don't think Coach Kill cares that his squad is 18 point dogs either.

My main point was USC giving 18 sounds right to me.:cool02:
 

Spread now Gophers +21, on Bookmaker.

If I was planning on wagering heavily on the Gophers, I'd sit a little even more. Let the USC factor play out....you should get even more points.
 

I'm buying at 22, I'm buying again in larger quantities if it gets to 25.
 

FireDaveLee said:
Spread now Gophers +21, on Bookmaker.

If I was planning on wagering heavily on the Gophers, I'd sit a little even more. Let the USC factor play out....you should get even more points.
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I ceased betting years ago, but FDL is probably right here. I wouldn't be surprised if the spread got up to the mid-20s before coming back down a bit. All this shows is that early money is heading heavily toward USC covering. All betting is tough, but if the spread gets to 24 or something like that, it would be tempting to take the Gophers. Early season football is a total crapshoot. Kiffin may want to make a statement and run things up or Kill might have the Gophers playing like men possessed in his debut. One of the real plusses here is that the USC experience playing the Gophers last season goes out the window, as schemes have changed dramatically.
 

Let the spread roll. Great opportunity to exceed expectations.
 

I do find it funny how the oddsmakers usually give the gophers bad odds or predict 3 - 9 seasons and us (yes, me included) complain that they are giving the gophers an unfair shake. However, they have been pretty spot on when it comes to handicapping the gophers. Although 21 points does seem like a lot of points to give up, the gophers are dealing with a lot of unknowns. The biggest one is Q. This guy has not started a fb game at QB since his JUNIOR YEAR IN HS. Here he is making his debut at one of the biggest stages in college fb. I will be shocked if Q will be able to keep his passes under control in the first half due to butterflies. My guess is that SC will be playing the run, requiring us to throw a lot. Based on the limited number of throws that Q made last year, there is cause to be concerned on his accuracy. One bad throw in the first half and we are looking at an int for a TD. This is going to be a real test for Q.
 

The first weekend is when you make your money in college football. Vegas is just guessing like most of the rest of the world, but there are always a few good ones that stand out.
 

It may be his first start, but he's not exactly a freshman, he should be fairly composed. I think we'll see a lot of MG taking it down the field on his own. Having the QB run be a major part of the offense really opens things up.
 

Who Sets the Odds?

GO4INLALALAND said:
I do find it funny how the oddsmakers usually give the gophers bad odds or predict 3 - 9 seasons and us (yes, me included) complain that they are giving the gophers an unfair shake. However, they have been pretty spot on when it comes to handicapping the gophers. Although 21 points does seem like a lot of points to give up, the gophers are dealing with a lot of unknowns. The biggest one is Q. This guy has not started a fb game at QB since his JUNIOR YEAR IN HS. Here he is making his debut at one of the biggest stages in college fb. I will be shocked if Q will be able to keep his passes under control in the first half due to butterflies. My guess is that SC will be playing the run, requiring us to throw a lot. Based on the limited number of throws that Q made last year, there is cause to be concerned on his accuracy. One bad throw in the first half and we are looking at an int for a TD. This is going to be a real test for Q.
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It has happened again! Somebody thinks that the odds makers are giving the Gophers bad odds per the bold above. The odds makers care about only one thing, i.e. having half the money on each side of the bet. That way they are guaranteed to make 10% without taking any risk. This has to be the greatest business models of all time!

So next time you want to blame the odds makers for the odds, remember they don't set the odds. It is the betting public that is responsible for setting the odds. The odds maker job is to keep half the money on each side of the bet.
 

Wrong Again

GophBen said:
The first weekend is when you make your money in college football. Vegas is just guessing like most of the rest of the world, but there are always a few good ones that stand out.
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See my 4:00 pm post above. The odds makers are not trying to figure out who is going to win the game and by how much. They just want to have half of the money on both sides of the bet.
 

Killjoy said:
It has happened again! Somebody thinks that the odds makers are giving the Gophers bad odds per the bold above. The odds makers care about only one thing, i.e. having half the money on each side of the bet. That way they are guaranteed to make 10% without taking any risk. This has to be the greatest business models of all time!
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Taking half your bets at -17 & the other half at +21 is not a great business model & involves massive risk.
 

Massive Risk - You got to be kidding me!

Costa Rican Gopher said:
Taking half your bets at -17 & the other half at +21 is not a great business model & involves massive risk.
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They are always adjusting their odds to balance their pluses and minus to minimize their risk. You are right that they usually not in perfect balance but their object is always to zero out all the risk. This isn’t that difficult when are making book on multiple games that are designed to return 10%. These guys understand risk and risk management better than Wall Street does and they don't have any of perverse incentives that Wall Street has to take undo risk.

This model is not as simple as a race track where they are absolutely guaranteed 18% because the payouts are set at the close of betting but by adjusting the point spread constantly they reduce the risk significantly towards the goal of having no risk. This is not that difficult when you are taking 10% off the top. In addition, the large volume of bets and games to bet on further reduces the overall risk. As a result there is little or no risk, much less massive risk for the odds makers. The truth is that they have is a license to steal. Las Vegas makes a very good living on other bets where the return is less than the 10% it is for sport betting.
 


I will argue that this trying to balance the money so the book can collect 10% is what many have said and believe but is far from the truth.

the books know that the general public like to bet favorites and high-profile teams such as USC. the books have their own set of power ratings and start there and work towards how might the public bet and the oddmakers are going to charge more for a team like USC knowing how the public feels about USC and how the public will look at this game. this would inflate the line and the number might be higher than the books actual power ratings.

ultimately the book isn't trying to balance the action but probably will have more money on one side than the other and in this case the book would want Minnesota to cover the number being most of the money will probably be bet on USC.

there are many games where a huge amount is bet on one side and the number doesn't move at all to try and balance the action.
 

Killjoy said:
They are always adjusting their odds to balance their pluses and minus to minimize their risk. You are right that they usually not in perfect balance but their object is always to zero out all the risk. This isn’t that difficult when are making book on multiple games that are designed to return 10%. These guys understand risk and risk management better than Wall Street does and they don't have any of perverse incentives that Wall Street has to take undo risk.

This model is not as simple as a race track where they are absolutely guaranteed 18% because the payouts are set at the close of betting but by adjusting the point spread constantly they reduce the risk significantly towards the goal of having no risk. This is not that difficult when you are taking 10% off the top. In addition, the large volume of bets and games to bet on further reduces the overall risk. As a result there is little or no risk, much less massive risk for the odds makers. The truth is that they have is a license to steal. Las Vegas makes a very good living on other bets where the return is less than the 10% it is for sport betting.
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Not trying to be a dick, but it's not a 10% hold, it's 4.5% as you must calculate both the winning & losing wagers as the total volume. i.e. 110/100 on team A & 110/100 on team B = 220 total volume. If you have perfectly balanced action that leaves you with $10 profit off of $220 volume = Hold of 4.5%.

I know this is hard to believe but the books in Vegas have a lot of risk with on sports betting which is why they let the Offshores open the lines up, are afraid of large bets & kick out anyone who beats them with any consistency. Next time in Vegas, go to the casino & ask to be rated/comped...no problem, a pass to the buffet & a show are on the way. Then go to the Sportsbook & ask to be rated/comped....you'll be lucky to get a free drink because they see sports as an accommodation to their casino betters & really don't make much of a profit off of sports.

You nailed it though that since no one can ever balance their books perfectly what you do is take positions of roughly the same amount. i.e. $500k on team A in game #1 & $500k on team A in game #2. Odds are the house is going to win one of the two games and that when the % comes into play, but now at an even lower % than 4.5.
 

scools12 said:
I will argue that this trying to balance the money so the book can collect 10% is what many have said and believe but is far from the truth.

the books know that the general public like to bet favorites and high-profile teams such as USC. the books have their own set of power ratings and start there and work towards how might the public bet and the oddmakers are going to charge more for a team like USC knowing how the public feels about USC and how the public will look at this game. this would inflate the line and the number might be higher than the books actual power ratings.

ultimately the book isn't trying to balance the action but probably will have more money on one side than the other and in this case the book would want Minnesota to cover the number being most of the money will probably be bet on USC.

there are many games where a huge amount is bet on one side and the number doesn't move at all to try and balance the action.
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Good point. There are two worlds at play here and we should clarify. Las Vegas is conservative, offer sports betting as an accommodation to their casino players & try to balance the books while playing it close to the vest. Smaller bets, move the number, etc.

The Offshore books is where the talent works & those are the guys who take big action & take positions on games. No balancing the books for these guys. They have overhead to cover & processing fees to think of so they can't operate on 4.5%. You'll often see Offshore books stick to a number & sink or swim with it. Again though if you have a large decision on 12 NFL games & you win 6 of them the juice comes into play & life is good for the bookie.
 

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