Gophers #15 in SP+

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BeerFueledFF said:
Gophers are up to 15th in SP+ - 10th in offense, 30th in defense - special teams needs some work apparently.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-rankings-week-8-wild-week-leads-big-shakeups
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I mean, our kicking game is godawful and we've had 1 or 2 blocked field goals this year (I think 1 went for 6 the other way?) so no surprises there.
Special teams don't move the needle much in terms of score predictions (e.g., we're 80th but only lose -0.1 pts in expected score) though so I don't think it's a real concern.

The implications of this are pretty crazy. If Minnesota has a solid offensive week against Maryland then we could be pretty close to even-money (I don't think we'll make it all the way there) against this PSU team. If MSU manages to beat them up after a tough game this week then there's an outside chance that we could be favored.

Put another way, we are dead even with a Michigan team that was one drop away from going to OT with PSU... and we get them at home.
 
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PMWinSTP said:
I'm with Fed Up American...
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... you think that Clemson is better than any of the teams ahead of them?
Have you watched Clemson this year? They do not look good.
Their QB is throwing up passes that make Morgan look like Tom Brady.
 


hello-world said:
... you think that Clemson is better than any of the teams ahead of them?
Have you watched Clemson this year? They do not look good.
Their QB is throwing up passes that make Morgan look like Tom Brady.
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Hey, hey, hey, now!!!!!

Tanner Morgan's 2019 stats are much, much better than Tom Brady's 2019 stats!
 

hello-world said:
... you think that Clemson is better than any of the teams ahead of them?
Have you watched Clemson this year? They do not look good.
Their QB is throwing up passes that make Morgan look like Tom Brady.
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I think there is a noticeable bias towards SEC teams.
 

PMWinSTP said:
I think there is a noticeable bias towards SEC teams.
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It's a computer algorithm. The closest thing to bias built into it is recruiting rankings (and I'm pretty sure those stop factoring in 6ish weeks into the season).
 




hello-world said:
It's a computer algorithm. The closest thing to bias built into it is recruiting rankings (and I'm pretty sure those stop factoring in 6ish weeks into the season).
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GA loses at home to an unranked team then struggles into the 3rd quarter 0-0 against another unranked team and moves up.
 

hello-world said:
It's a computer algorithm. The closest thing to bias built into it is recruiting rankings (and I'm pretty sure those stop factoring in 6ish weeks into the season).
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Initial data comes from somewhere, right?
 

hello-world said:
I mean, our kicking game is godawful and we've had 1 or 2 blocked field goals this year (I think 1 went for 6 the other way?) so no surprises there.
Special teams don't move the needle much in terms of score predictions (e.g., we're 80th but only lose -0.1 pts in expected score) though so I don't think it's a real concern.

The implications of this are pretty crazy. If Minnesota has a solid offensive week against Maryland then we could be pretty close to even-money (I don't think we'll make it all the way there) against this PSU team. If MSU manages to beat them up after a tough game this week then there's an outside chance that we could be favored.

Put another way, we are dead even with a Michigan team that was one drop away from going to OT with PSU... and we get them at home.
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Lantz did hit the fg against Fresno with the game on the line though.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Initial data comes from somewhere, right?
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He has a database of every play and the players involved, the data isn't going to be biased. It's not like voters have any say in this. I suppose you could argue that the methodology itself is biased but his predictions manage to beat the spread at a 51-54% clip so he's pretty damn accurate.
 



hello-world said:
He has a database of every play and the players involved, the data isn't going to be biased. It's not like voters have any say in this. I suppose you could argue that the methodology itself is biased but his predictions manage to beat the spread at a 51-54% clip so he's pretty damn accurate.
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It relays heavily on preseason predictions in the first seven games.
 

PMWinSTP said:
It relays heavily on preseason predictions in the first seven games.
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Well we're past that now and it still has Georgia ahead of Clemson.
Also, his preseason prediction is essentially just returning production plus historical production plus recruiting rankings.
The only one with any real wiggle room for bias there is recruiting rankings.

Clemson was *this* close too losing to UNC which would have been a way worse beat than South Carolina.
Frankly UNC played as well as Clemson and should have won that game.

Compare that to Georgia who out gained SC by nearly 200 yards, 14 first downs, and possessed the ball for 36 minutes.
It's hard for me to look at that and say that Georgia is the worse team just because they lost.

Very similar to our game against GaSo, Minnesota outgained GASO by nearly 200 yards, 10 first downs, and possessed the ball for 38 minutes. GaSo got lucky on a couple of big plays and almost pulled out the upset. That doesn't mean that the Gophers played even with GaSo.
 
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hello-world said:
Well we're past that now and it still has Georgia ahead of Clemson.
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Thus if you top load a conference, let's say the SEC...the deck chairs get moved a few times barring a really bad start and...
 

There’s no such thing as a perfect system but at least Connelly’s system allegedly uses efficiency data, explosiveness data, havoc, etc to help figure out which teams do what best within the given parameters. Sure that doesn’t tell the whole story but it’s a whole lot more objective than a yokel sportswriter giving their opinion on what’s going to happen or a human poll.

There are occasionally some head scratching SP+ rankings after bad losses. It seems like SP+ regards the WI and GA losses, for example, as the fluky wrath of God type stuff.

Ohio State is looking pretty dominant in all phases right now...
 

The bias in the polls, including this algorithm is that Wisky still out ranks us even though they lost and we crushed them last season. That kind of "initial" bias isn't just bias. It is a form of rank discrimination pure and simple.
 

Dean S said:
The bias in the polls, including this algorithm is that Wisky still out ranks us even though they lost and we crushed them last season. That kind of "initial" bias isn't just bias. It is a form of rank discrimination pure and simple.
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Yeah. It's efficiency discrimination.
 

Dean S said:
The bias in the polls, including this algorithm is that Wisky still out ranks us even though they lost and we crushed them last season. That kind of "initial" bias isn't just bias. It is a form of rank discrimination pure and simple.
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Yeah, totally, it's definitely not because they shutout 4 of their first seven opponents and have the best running back in the country and in their one loss, held the ball for over 40 minutes and out-passed / out-ran Illinois.
 
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hello-world said:
Well we're past that now and it still has Georgia ahead of Clemson.
Also, his preseason prediction is essentially just returning production plus historical production plus recruiting rankings.
The only one with any real wiggle room for bias there is recruiting rankings.

Clemson was *this* close too losing to UNC which would have been a way worse beat than South Carolina.
Frankly UNC played as well as Clemson and should have won that game.

Compare that to Georgia who out gained SC by nearly 200 yards, 14 first downs, and possessed the ball for 36 minutes.
It's hard for me to look at that and say that Georgia is the worse team just because they lost.

Very similar to our game against GaSo, Minnesota outgained GASO by nearly 200 yards, 10 first downs, and possessed the ball for 38 minutes. GaSo got lucky on a couple of big plays and almost pulled out the upset. That doesn't mean that the Gophers played even with GaSo.
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Why do you say UNC would have been a way worse beat than South Carolina? UNC beat South Carolina.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
There’s no such thing as a perfect system but at least Connelly’s system allegedly uses efficiency data, explosiveness data, havoc, etc to help figure out which teams do what best within the given parameters. Sure that doesn’t tell the whole story but it’s a whole lot more objective than a yokel sportswriter giving their opinion on what’s going to happen or a human poll.

There are occasionally some head scratching SP+ rankings after bad losses. It seems like SP+ regards the WI and GA losses, for example, as the fluky wrath of God type stuff.

Ohio State is looking pretty dominant in all phases right now...
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There's a reason why G5 teams are few and far between at the top of SP+. Does anyone think Missouri was the 10th best team through last week, or a 5-1 Georgia was the seventh best after losing to an unranked 2-3 Kentucky?
 


PMWinSTP said:
There's a reason why G5 teams are few and far between at the top of SP+. Does anyone think Missouri was the 10th best team through last week, or a 5-1 Georgia was the seventh best after losing to an unranked 2-3 Kentucky?
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Yes, I do believe Georgia is a top 10 team.
 

I think Georgia is a really good but not dominant team as some tried to make them out to be last year and now this year. Some years there are one or two teams that are scary good, usually that’s been Alabama in recent times and then a rather steep drop off to the rest of top 10 or so. This year I’d say the gorilla looks like Ohio State but we’ll see. I HATE the talk of two CFP teams from the SEC. In an artificially limited field and particularly in the age of an extra conference game (championship) that doesn’t ever make sense.
 

hello-world said:
Yeah, totally, it's definitely not because they shutout 4 of their first seven opponents and have the best running back in the country and in their one loss, held the ball for over 40 minutes and out-passed / out-ran Illinois.
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Wisconsin had a yardage advantage, but Illinois actually had a higher average per carry, and their yards per pass were equal. Illinois held Wisconsin to 3.6 yards per carry.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Three turnovers and the Badgers inability to score were the killers.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
I think Georgia is a really good but not dominant team as some tried to make them out to be last year and now this year. Some years there are one or two teams that are scary good, usually that’s been Alabama in recent times and then a rather steep drop off to the rest of top 10 or so. This year I’d say the gorilla looks like Ohio State but we’ll see. I HATE the talk of two CFP teams from the SEC. In an artificially limited field and particularly in the age of an extra conference game (championship) that doesn’t ever make sense.
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To further your point, I like for the ultra dominant teams (or at least the ones that think they are) to schedule high end out of conference games. LSU-Texas and Auburn -Oregon this year. Ohio State-Oklahoma. Alabama played USC a few years back (USC was down but not when the schedule was made). That makes it a lot more interesting nationally than playing 1 more team from the same conference. I'd like the Gophers to get back to the TCU type of games in the future-don't schedule an automatic loss, but something comparable. I think North Carolina is coming up in a few years.
 



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