Gophers #15 in SP+

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The issue I have with computer rankings is that a conference with 9 conference game is going to be a half game closer to 0.500 than a conference who schedules an extra non-conference game which can yield a likely win.
If SEC teams non-conference compiled as a total is above 0.500, it makes the conference look better for all teams in that conference.
 

WinLoseOrTy said:
Here is a nice graph of SP+ wins breakdown.

View attachment 6388
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Man, that is just cool. The team has improved so much. So if I'm reading it correctly, better chance to get to 11 wins than 8, but the most likely outcome is 10. 10-2. I hate to aim lower than 13-0, but 10-2 is something I only dreamed of a few years ago!
 



This is more meaningful to me personally than the AP poll, and I hope more and more football fans begin to respect advanced stats. FWIW here is what SP+ predicts the spread will be for the remainder of our games:

Equation: Gophers rating - opponent rating = neutral-field spread +/- home-field advantage = projected spread

vs Maryland: 18.5 - 4.1 = 14.4 + 2.5 (home field adjustment) = -17
vs PSU: 18.5 - 24.6 = -6.1 + 2.5 = +3.5
@ Iowa: 18.5 - 14.5 = 4 - 2.5 = -1.5
@ NW: 18.5 - (-1.7) = 20.2 - 2.5 = -17.5
vs Wisconsin: 18.5 - 24.7 = -6.2 + 2.5 = +3.5

Every game winnable -- should be a fun ride!!
 


MGGopher said:
Man, that is just cool. The team has improved so much. So if I'm reading it correctly, better chance to get to 11 wins than 8, but the most likely outcome is 10. 10-2. I hate to aim lower than 13-0, but 10-2 is something I only dreamed of a few years ago!
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In 2016, we went 8-4 with an overtime road loss to Penn State, a one score loss to Iowa, a one score loss to Nebraska in Lincoln. We were beating Bucky in Madison in the fourth quarter that year. We got to nine wins absolutely shutting down one one of the top offenses in the country In the bowl game. You didn’t have to be a wild eyed dreamer to think the team could be 10-2. Many of the guys on that team are playing today.

That 2016 performance was on the heels of 8-4 seasons in 2014 and 2013.

In 2014, we had to go into Texas and face a good TCU, lost to Ohio State by 7, and were trailing Bucky by 3 in Madison in the fourth quarter with 7 minutes to play. A little friendlier schedule where you avoid the likes of TCU and OSU and we are 10-2. Not a wild eyed dream.

Even the 2015 team that went 6-7 wasn’t too far off. Played top 5 TCU to within 6 in a packed TCF, had top 15 Michigan beat at a raucous TCF, and almost ruined top ten Iowa’s great 12-0 season in a really fun game in Kinnick, losing by 5. We also had a tough draw having to go face #1 Ohio State in Columbus, and gave them a good game.

The idea that it is a miracle or a dream to be in a position to win 10 games is just foolish to me.
 

swingman said:
In 2016, we went 8-4 with an overtime road loss to Penn State, a one score loss to Iowa, a one score loss to Nebraska in Lincoln. We were beating Bucky in Madison in the fourth quarter that year. We got to nine wins absolutely shutting down one one of the top offenses in the country In the bowl game. You didn’t have to be a wild eyed dreamer to think the team could be 10-2. Many of the guys on that team are playing today.

That 2016 performance was on the heels of 8-4 seasons in 2014 and 2013.

In 2014, we had to go into Texas and face a good TCU, lost to Ohio State by 7, and were trailing Bucky by 3 in Madison in the fourth quarter with 7 minutes to play. A little friendlier schedule where you avoid the likes of TCU and OSU and we are 10-2. Not a wild eyed dream.

Even the 2015 team that went 6-7 wasn’t too far off. Played top 5 TCU to within 6 in a packed TCF, had top 15 Michigan beat at a raucous TCF, and almost ruined top ten Iowa’s great 12-0 season in a really fun game in Kinnick, losing by 5. We also had a tough draw having to go face #1 Ohio State in Columbus, and gave them a good game.

The idea that it is a miracle or a dream to be in a position to win 10 games is just foolish to me.
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I appreciate the recap of things I already knew. I know it's your schtick, but I think trying to downplay this makes you look foolish, not me. We'll obviously see how the rest of the season goes, but if Minnesota finishes 10-2 that would be monumental. Last time MN won 10 regular season games was 1904. Have they had some pretty good teams in the past 20 years? Yes. Have they come "close" to winning 10 games? Well, I guess they have. But they didn't. The team has NEVER had that breakout year where everything fell perfectly, they won the big games, and they stayed in the national conversation the entire season. So yes, 10-2 would be a dream come true for me. Perhaps not for you, but for me.
 

The Gophs have been close to hanging a division or conference banner a handful of times of the past two decades but there have always been some significant shoulda-woulda-couldas involved. If they did this, if they did that, they would have had a so and so championship. So far, this team has shown remarkable resilience in getting the "W" even in the face of game-changing turnovers and mistakes (shoulda-woulda-couldas) that would defeat most prior Gopher teams. This team probably doesn't go undefeated through November, but they have a helluva chance to raise a BG10 West banner with a little luck and good play. Looking back to 2014 when the West/East divisions were created, 4 of the 5 West division champions didn't play Ohio State in the regular season. In the Gophers past three Big Ten champion years in ancient history, they didn't play Ohio State either. Maybe this is their year.
 

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