I spoke to someone involved in developing the premium seating program when they first announced it. He shared a few pieces of interesting information:
1) They typically expect to lose about 5% of the season ticket holders in any given year. Those are most often newer ticket holders who lose interest, get frustrated with the inability to improve location, etc. They anticipated that the number would be higher for 2011-12 as some people who were absolutely not going to participate in the premium seating plan might figure it made sense to cut the cord right away rather than paying for a “lame duck” year. (I don’t know what the renewal rate for this year turned out to be.) They expected the non-renewal rate for 2012-13 to be around 10%. Based on that, I am sure that they would be disappointed if the non-renewal rate actually turned out to be anywhere close to 20%, but I doubt they would be totally surprised, either.
2) Part of the motivation for the change to this type of program was to create a more equitable donation system and to change the overall pricing model. There just isn’t an easy way to accomplish that. Right now, relatively few seats require donations, but those donation levels are much higher than the new system. The current system has folks donating >$1,000 per year per seat next to people who have never made a donation. They appreciate the loyalty of the longtime ticket holders, but in an environment where they need to increase revenue and where the primary thing they have to offer in exchange for that revenue is seat location, they are prepared to lose longtime season ticket holders who don’t make donations in exchange for increasing (significantly, they hope) the number of people making donations at some level. The survey doesn’t address how long people have had tickets or whether the respondents currently make donations, but that would be important information to know and would be of much more significance to the University than strictly the non-renewal rate alone. I suspect that the non-renewal rate among current donors will be much lower. I would expect that they will approach those who have donated at a higher level under the old system to continue their donations at that level and/or add seats.
3) They view any losses in current ticket holders as an opportunity to add new, higher revenue ones. If they truly end the re-seating process with lots of unsold premium seats, they will have those seats to market to new (or former) customers and will do so with seat locations far better than they have had to offer in the past. How much interest will there be in that? I have no clue, but I am sure that there are customers for chair back seats between the base lines who would pay an extra $400/per seat who would have no interest in sitting on a bench in the upper level, even at the reduced price. It would be much easier to find those folks in a better economy, but they are still out there in some number.