For those inclined to fret about Gophers' chances on Selection Sunday?

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One word. ... Don't.

Even though the Gophers are nowhere near the bubble, just for the heck of it I put them in the mix with 20 "true" bubble teams even remotely in the mix for the remaining 9 or 10 available bids. Here's where the Gophers ranked in the 6 primary criteria I use to evaluate at-large candidates.

Overall SOS: 2 (ranks #1 among the 21 bubblers)
Nonconference SOS: 13 (ranks #2 among the 21; behind only Middle Tennessee)
Road/Neutral Wins/Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4/4-8 (ranks #2 among the 21; behind only Oregon)
RPI Top-50 Wins/Record: 5/5-8 (tied for #2 among the 21; behind only Cal)
RPI Top-100 Wins/Record: 12/12-10 (ranks #1 of the 21)
Best 3 Wins by RPI Total: 31 (ranks #2 of the 21; behind only Villanova)

Pretty much what I found is that the only thing working against the Gophers is their 3-7 record in their last 10 games or 5-7 in their last 12, if you're one that's inclined to put significant stock in that. In terms of evaluating bubble teams, that's the ONLY area they fall short.

Translation? We have nothing to sweat on Selection Sunday.

For those interested, I'll post my final "Field of 68" projection sometime late tonight or in the wee hours of the morning Sunday. See you then.

BTT Note
At the United Center last night, I got a hoot out of several Gopher students joining in the Michigan State student section to cheer for the Spartans vs. Iowa. I found it quite amusing (and creative) that after teaching the MSU students a new cheer, they led the Spartan student section in several choruses of "Who hates Iowa? We hate Iowa." The Iowa fans sitting 2 seats to my right were not amused!
 

SelectionSunday said:
One word. ... Don't.

Even though the Gophers are nowhere near the bubble, just for the heck of it I put them in the mix with 20 "true" bubble teams even remotely in the mix for the remaining 9 or 10 available bids. Here's where the Gophers ranked in the 6 primary criteria I use to evaluate at-large candidates.

Overall SOS: 2 (ranks #1 among the 21 bubblers)
Nonconference SOS: 13 (ranks #2 among the 21; behind only Middle Tennessee)
Road/Neutral Wins/Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4/4-8 (ranks #2 among the 21; behind only Oregon)
RPI Top-50 Wins/Record: 5/5-8 (tied for #2 among the 21; behind only Cal)
RPI Top-100 Wins/Record: 12/12-10 (ranks #1 of the 21)
Best 3 Wins by RPI Total: 31 (ranks #2 of the 21; behind only Villanova)

Pretty much what I found is that the only thing working against the Gophers is their 3-7 record in their last 10 games or 5-7 in their last 12, if you're one that's inclined to put significant stock in that. In terms of evaluating bubble teams, that's the ONLY area they fall short.

Translation? We have nothing to sweat on Selection Sunday.

For those interested, I'll post my final "Field of 68" projection sometime late tonight or in the wee hours of the morning Sunday. See you then.

BTT Note
At the United Center last night, I got a hoot out of several Gopher students joining in the Michigan State student section to cheer for the Spartans vs. Iowa. I found it quite amusing (and creative) that after teaching the MSU students a new cheer, they led the Spartan student section in several choruses of "Who hates Iowa? We hate Iowa." The Iowa fans sitting 2 seats to my right were not amused!
Click to expand...

SS, you convinced me a week ago that we were in after I was concerned then. But I'll continue to read your evidence. Looks good!

Also thanks for sharing the story about the Gopher students joining in the Michigan State student section. Love stories like that. College basketball is the best
 

That's odd. I've heard that anyone that thinks the Gophers are in no danger of missing the tourney are "Drinking the Kool Aid."
 

The fact that Oregon is one of the teams you have on the "bubble comparison" should make everyone feel even better about the chances. The ducks are nowhere near the bubble.

Here are the teams to root against today/tomorrow
- Southern Miss
- Alabama
- Vanderbilt
- Maryland
- Umass

That's at most 5 bid stealers left (Vandy & UMASS only gets in if they win the tournament). Even if all these games go against the Gophers, they are more than 5 places from the bubble IMO.
 

Iowa losing cinched the deal...
 


Just throwing out some other things the committee might* consider or that may change:

  • Nebraska could fall in top 100 or out of it.
  • Of the 51-100 games, SDSU w/o Wolters was the only 51-75 game. The other 8 were 76-100.
  • Gophers' adjusted win percentage is the lowest among all teams in the RPI top 50.. don't know where it ranks among the teams you're looking at.
  • Conference record
  • Road/neutral record since Ill game
  • Record in ~second half of the season
  • Injuries that appear to exist?
  • Win % / Adj Win % against top 50 RPI teams - wonder how it looks among the other teams you're looking at.

I understand the sound bites, quotes, etc. around the selection process... but the goal is to pick the best at large teams. Trends can be considered. If you're trying to pick the best teams as of today, you just never know.

Minnesota's resume does have similarities to UCONN's last year, yeah? Different ends to regular/conf tourney seasons, though.. think UCONN wound up with a 10-seed. Obviously all other teams in the mix are different this year vs last year.
 

Breakin' The Plane said:
That's odd. I've heard that anyone that thinks the Gophers are in no danger of missing the tourney are "Drinking the Kool Aid."
Click to expand...

If we make it, fine. I just won't cry over the Kool-Aid if the committee tells the Goofies to enjoy their NIT bid. We're limping in like a squirrel that couldn't get out of the way of a car. Still alive...but likely to die a slow and painful death! :p
 

I have little doubt that we will make the tournament, but a low seed and a probable first round loss isn't what most of us expected this season. No matter what, I'll be rooting for the Gophers to win, and it would be wonderful if they caught fire and made a strong run. An arguable advantage of a low seed is that a first round win would give the Gopher's the advantage of a high seed in the second round and beyond. Given the fact that the team has demonstrated its ability to beat top ranked teams, this isn't beyond the realm of possibility.

In any event, Norwood Teague will need to take a hard look at the program after the season is over. I hope that he will be able to find all the resources needed to take us to the next level, but if not, I hope he has the wisdom to use whatever resources are available, as effectively as possible.
 

It would be fairly surprising and scandalous if the Gophs were left out. As someone posted recently, we would be among the highest RPI to not get in. Add in the other metrics and it's the closest thing to a lock. We didn't fall as far in the indexes because of the ILL game as some predicted and as I had thought mathematically possible.

Agreed, nothing at all to worry about.

SS, hoping you're having a nice time in Chicago. Have you run into Holy Man? I've been exchanging a few texts with him but nothing too detailed.
 



Gopher Warrior said:
Just throwing out some other things the committee might* consider or that may change:


[*]Nebraska could fall in top 100 or out of it.
[*]Of the 51-100 games, SDSU w/o Wolters was the only 51-75 game. The other 8 were 76-100.
[*]Gophers' adjusted win percentage is the lowest among all teams in the RPI top 50.. don't know where it ranks among the teams you're looking at.
[*]Conference record
[*]Road/neutral record since Ill game
[*]Record in ~second half of the season
[*]Injuries that appear to exist?
[*]Win % / Adj Win % against top 50 RPI teams - wonder how it looks among the other teams you're looking at.


I understand the sound bites, quotes, etc. around the selection process... but the goal is to pick the best at large teams. Trends can be considered. If you're trying to pick the best teams as of today, you just never know.

Minnesota's resume does have similarities to UCONN's last year, yeah? Different ends to regular/conf tourney seasons, though.. think UCONN wound up with a 10-seed. Obviously all other teams in the mix are different this year vs last year.
Click to expand...

You compared none of these made up criteria to the other bubble teams. People like you have no idea how the selection process works.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
Just throwing out some other things the committee might* consider or that may change:


[*]Nebraska could fall in top 100 or out of it.
[*]Of the 51-100 games, SDSU w/o Wolters was the only 51-75 game. The other 8 were 76-100.
[*]Gophers' adjusted win percentage is the lowest among all teams in the RPI top 50.. don't know where it ranks among the teams you're looking at.
[*]Conference record
[*]Road/neutral record since Ill game
[*]Record in ~second half of the season
[*]Injuries that appear to exist?
[*]Win % / Adj Win % against top 50 RPI teams - wonder how it looks among the other teams you're looking at.


I understand the sound bites, quotes, etc. around the selection process... but the goal is to pick the best at large teams. Trends can be considered. If you're trying to pick the best teams as of today, you just never know.

Minnesota's resume does have similarities to UCONN's last year, yeah? Different ends to regular/conf tourney seasons, though.. think UCONN wound up with a 10-seed. Obviously all other teams in the mix are different this year vs last year.
Click to expand...

You really them to get left out, don't you? It would just make your day as a "Gopher fan" to see them left out because then you'd be smarter than everyone else. And that's your true goal in life, isn't it? To always be the smartest person on the room?
 


Gold Vision said:
You compared none of these made up criteria to the other bubble teams. People like you have no idea how the selection process works.
Click to expand...

Some people don't care how it works. We just recognize a team that has floundered since January and realize that they have done little to prove themselves worthy of an NCAA selection. 9th place in the B1G and a first round loss in the B1G tournament just pops right out at ya!

Good for any of you who feel so strongly about our greatness as a complete body of work. But, we are limping in like a half-dead roadkill...
 



I think most fans know they will get in, based on the season. However, based on the last 60 days of play, they hardly deserve it.
 

tinyarch said:
9th place in the B1G and a first round loss in the B1G tournament just pops right out at ya!
Click to expand...

Agree, they don't look like a tournament team compared to the rest of the BIG, but how do we know the 3rd place SEC team is better than an 8-10 BIG team. What about the 2nd place C-USA team? Or the 4th place A-10 team? Or the 5th place Mountain West team?

This is why the selection process works the way it does, and why just pure records aren't the only criteria.

Fact is we beat Memphis - bubble team Southern Miss hasn't yet. We won @ FSU. ACC bubble teams Maryland and Virginia couldn't.

These are just a few of the things the committee looks at - in addition to us laying an egg @ Nebraska. The committee looks at it all. The RPI by definition takes these things into account. That is the nature of the selection process.
 

SelectionSunday said:
One word. ... Don't.

Even though the Gophers are nowhere near the bubble, just for the heck of it I put them in the mix with 20 "true" bubble teams even remotely in the mix for the remaining 9 or 10 available bids. Here's where the Gophers ranked in the 6 primary criteria I use to evaluate at-large candidates.

Overall SOS: 2 (ranks #1 among the 21 bubblers)
Nonconference SOS: 13 (ranks #2 among the 21; behind only Middle Tennessee)
Road/Neutral Wins/Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4/4-8 (ranks #2 among the 21; behind only Oregon)
RPI Top-50 Wins/Record: 5/5-8 (tied for #2 among the 21; behind only Cal)
RPI Top-100 Wins/Record: 12/12-10 (ranks #1 of the 21)
Best 3 Wins by RPI Total: 31 (ranks #2 of the 21; behind only Villanova)

Pretty much what I found is that the only thing working against the Gophers is their 3-7 record in their last 10 games or 5-7 in their last 12, if you're one that's inclined to put significant stock in that. In terms of evaluating bubble teams, that's the ONLY area they fall short.

Translation? We have nothing to sweat on Selection Sunday.

For those interested, I'll post my final "Field of 68" projection sometime late tonight or in the wee hours of the morning Sunday. See you then.

BTT Note
At the United Center last night, I got a hoot out of several Gopher students joining in the Michigan State student section to cheer for the Spartans vs. Iowa. I found it quite amusing (and creative) that after teaching the MSU students a new cheer, they led the Spartan student section in several choruses of "Who hates Iowa? We hate Iowa." The Iowa fans sitting 2 seats to my right were not amused!
Click to expand...
Your last part about the who hates Iowa story is hilarious.
 


Gopher Warrior said:
Just throwing out some other things the committee might* consider or that may change:

  • Nebraska could fall in top 100 or out of it.
  • Of the 51-100 games, SDSU w/o Wolters was the only 51-75 game. The other 8 were 76-100.
  • Gophers' adjusted win percentage is the lowest among all teams in the RPI top 50.. don't know where it ranks among the teams you're looking at.
  • Conference record
  • Road/neutral record since Ill game
  • Record in ~second half of the season
  • Injuries that appear to exist?
  • Win % / Adj Win % against top 50 RPI teams - wonder how it looks among the other teams you're looking at.

I understand the sound bites, quotes, etc. around the selection process... but the goal is to pick the best at large teams. Trends can be considered. If you're trying to pick the best teams as of today, you just never know.

Minnesota's resume does have similarities to UCONN's last year, yeah? Different ends to regular/conf tourney seasons, though.. think UCONN wound up with a 10-seed. Obviously all other teams in the mix are different this year vs last year.
Click to expand...

Good points, providing the Ying to the supporters Yang. I personally believe MN gets in, the other "bubble" teams have worse overall profiles, IMO than MN and after about the top 20 or so teams in the country, most have some fairly large flaws...
 

StCroix said:
based on the last 60 days of play, they hardly deserve it.
Click to expand...

If they get in the tournament, they deserve it. Why is this so difficult to grasp? They may not be playing like one of the best 68-teams in the country RIGHT NOW, but this is not the criteria for the selection committee.
 

SelectionSunday said:
One word. ... Don't.

Even though the Gophers are nowhere near the bubble, just for the heck of it I put them in the mix with 20 "true" bubble teams even remotely in the mix for the remaining 9 or 10 available bids. Here's where the Gophers ranked in the 6 primary criteria I use to evaluate at-large candidates.

Overall SOS: 2 (ranks #1 among the 21 bubblers)
Nonconference SOS: 13 (ranks #2 among the 21; behind only Middle Tennessee)
Road/Neutral Wins/Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4/4-8 (ranks #2 among the 21; behind only Oregon)
RPI Top-50 Wins/Record: 5/5-8 (tied for #2 among the 21; behind only Cal)
RPI Top-100 Wins/Record: 12/12-10 (ranks #1 of the 21)
Best 3 Wins by RPI Total: 31 (ranks #2 of the 21; behind only Villanova)

Pretty much what I found is that the only thing working against the Gophers is their 3-7 record in their last 10 games or 5-7 in their last 12, if you're one that's inclined to put significant stock in that. In terms of evaluating bubble teams, that's the ONLY area they fall short.

Translation? We have nothing to sweat on Selection Sunday.

For those interested, I'll post my final "Field of 68" projection sometime late tonight or in the wee hours of the morning Sunday. See you then.

BTT Note
At the United Center last night, I got a hoot out of several Gopher students joining in the Michigan State student section to cheer for the Spartans vs. Iowa. I found it quite amusing (and creative) that after teaching the MSU students a new cheer, they led the Spartan student section in several choruses of "Who hates Iowa? We hate Iowa." The Iowa fans sitting 2 seats to my right were not amused!
Click to expand...

In the things working against the Gophers department, don't forget the last 16: 5-11 - I doubt any team making the dance with an at large has ever done that.

Also, don't forget the old "eye test" which the committee can implement anytime they wanna justify anything. The Gophers FAIL in both of those miserably and that could be enough. Iowa losing last night and Kent State not beating Akron helps the Gophers chances. Still not as sure as thing as you write.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
Just throwing out some other things the committee might* consider or that may change:

  • Nebraska could fall in top 100 or out of it.
  • Of the 51-100 games, SDSU w/o Wolters was the only 51-75 game. The other 8 were 76-100.
  • Gophers' adjusted win percentage is the lowest among all teams in the RPI top 50.. don't know where it ranks among the teams you're looking at.
  • Conference record
  • Road/neutral record since Ill game
  • Record in ~second half of the season
  • Injuries that appear to exist?
  • Win % / Adj Win % against top 50 RPI teams - wonder how it looks among the other teams you're looking at.

I understand the sound bites, quotes, etc. around the selection process... but the goal is to pick the best at large teams. Trends can be considered. If you're trying to pick the best teams as of today, you just never know.

Minnesota's resume does have similarities to UCONN's last year, yeah? Different ends to regular/conf tourney seasons, though.. think UCONN wound up with a 10-seed. Obviously all other teams in the mix are different this year vs last year.
Click to expand...

I'm glad you found a new bone to obsess over over instead of checking police reports for the name 'Mbakwe.' But either way your Gopher 'fandom' just shines through.
 

Moses87 said:
In the things working against the Gophers department, don't forget the last 16: 5-11 - I doubt any team making the dance with an at large has ever done that.

Also, don't forget the old "eye test" which the committee can implement anytime they wanna justify anything. The Gophers FAIL in both of those miserably and that could be enough. Iowa losing last night and Kent State not beating Akron helps the Gophers chances. Still not as sure as thing as you write.
Click to expand...

You never really answered yesterday - are they in our out? What do you think? You hedged your bet somewhat. Give me your thought, gun to your head right now?
 

josh087 said:
Agree, they don't look like a tournament team compared to the rest of the BIG, but how do we know the 3rd place SEC team is better than an 8-10 BIG team. What about the 2nd place C-USA team? Or the 4th place A-10 team? Or the 5th place Mountain West team?

This is why the selection process works the way it does, and why just pure records aren't the only criteria.

Fact is we beat Memphis - bubble team Southern Miss hasn't yet. We won @ FSU. ACC bubble teams Maryland and Virginia couldn't.

These are just a few of the things the committee looks at - in addition to us laying an egg @ Nebraska. The committee looks at it all. The RPI by definition takes these things into account. That is the nature of the selection process.
Click to expand...

If they played the tournament in December, Tubby's teams would be 1 or 2 seeds every year...

What the Gophers did in November seems fairly irrelevant in March. We may back in to the tourney, but that hardly means we deserve to be in the tourney. Regardless of what the committee says, how a team plays in February and early March should play a much bigger role than how they played in the Bahama's in November.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
You never really answered yesterday - are they in our out? What do you think? You hedged your bet somewhat. Give me your thought, gun to your head right now?
Click to expand...

Gun to your head? You've been watching way too many Bourne movies lately haven't you.
 


gopherbadgerman said:
You never really answered yesterday - are they in our out? What do you think? You hedged your bet somewhat. Give me your thought, gun to your head right now?
Click to expand...

Right now, they are probably in the last 4 in...Iowa's loss (They wuz Robbed) and Akron surviving really helped the Committee keep the Mac a 1 bid conference. But I would still not be surprised if the committee throw out their stated criteria on the basis of the "eye test" and losing 11 of their last 16...And not breaking 55 in 80% of their road games. I think there will be a lot of people on the committee who are very reiticent to include a team that has lost 11 of their past 16. They are probably rooting for Ohio to upset Akron tonight. Or Rooting for Vandy.

Vandy and Ole Miss being alive in the SEC could also be a threat to steal bids.

The extra 4 at-large bids may wind up being the difference. But if there's a strong and charasmatic figure in the committee who lobbies hard against the Gophers, it would be hard to dispute the "eye test" arguement. There may not be enough solid wins by other teams on the bubble at this point.

Teams losing in their conference tourney that may steal bids:

LA Tech
Midd Tenn St.
Kentucky
Cal
Boise St.

Others who could steal bids: Akron, OleMiss, Tenn, Bama, Maryland.

The committee could come out and say, "With Minnesota, they had some nice wins but too many bad losses on the road and they just didn't pass the eye test." Nobody here should complain or be surprised if that happens.
 

Bad Gopher said:
It would be fairly surprising and scandalous if the Gophs were left out. As someone posted recently, we would be among the highest RPI to not get in. Add in the other metrics and it's the closest thing to a lock. We didn't fall as far in the indexes because of the ILL game as some predicted and as I had thought mathematically possible.

Agreed, nothing at all to worry about.

SS, hoping you're having a nice time in Chicago. Have you run into Holy Man? I've been exchanging a few texts with him but nothing too detailed.
Click to expand...

Haven't run into Holy Man yet, but I spotted where he's sitting. Hope I get a chance to see him.
 


What...No one posting about how much benefit Minn gets from going to the NIT!!! You know...3 games or even 4! would really help the program... none of the transfers are any good...the Minnesota kids playing for all the other teams across the country are no good. ....blah -blah blah. They probably get in, maybe win a game. And yes it could be worse... BUT IT WILL NEVER GET BETTER WILL THE CURRENT LEADERSHIP IN PLACE.
IF anything, this thread shows how easy it is to get into the tour. on a somewhat regular basis for major program. Which Minn is not!
 

For clarity, here are the 20 teams I evaluated the Gophers with. Keep in mind, some of these are easily in the field (like the Gophers), while some others have no chance in h*ll of receiving an at-large bid:

Alabama
Baylor
Boise State
Cal
Charlotte
Iowa
Iowa State
Kentucky
LaSalle
Maryland
Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Oregon
Saint Mary's
Southern Miss
Tennessee
UMass
Villanova
Virginia
 

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