There are three kinds of lies. Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics - Mark Twain.
This post aims to highlight that you are not comparing apples to apples when evaluating Fleck's conference record in comparison to previous coaches, without taking anything away from Fleck's accomplishments.
There have been numerous changes in college football during Fleck's tenure. The most significant impact on any comparison like this is that Fleck has played more B1G games per season (9) than all previous coaches (8), except Claeys, who had 9 games as well in his one full season.
Additionally, not all schedules are created equally. When you look at the number of ranked opponents per season, Fleck averages 2.375, the lowest of all of the coaches since Holtz. Mason played the most ranked opponents per season at 3.2. Thus Fleck played on average 2 more games against non-ranked opponents (1.825) than Mason did in conference. All of this said, Fleck's winning percentage against ranked opponents is the highest at 26% which can't be overlooked.
Furthermore, the conference had divisions for only the Kill, Claeys, and the first 7 years of the Fleck tenure. Kill coached in the Legends Division with Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska and Northwestern for three years (with 3 of those teams in the top 25 in 2011 and 2012, and the number 3 team in the country in 2013) and two years in the West (which was stronger early on that it was in the later part of its existence, when it was considered teh weakest division in all of the P5.
Finally, the situations coaches inherited are very different, which has an impact on results in the first few years of the program.
For example, Gutekunst took over from Holtz after two years. The team had won 7 conf. games the two years before Gutey took over, and was 6-5 (4-4) the year before, making a bowl game in a year there were 18 bowl games.
Mason took over from Wacker, who had won a total of 8 B1G games over 5 years and finished with one B1G win per year in the three years before Mason was hired.
Brewster took over from Mason who won 7 conf. games in the two years before he took over and had been to five consecutive bowl games (28 bowl games in the first 4 years, 32 in the last year).
Kill took over from Brewster/Horton who won 5 B1G games in the two years prior, but had signficant issues with grades and lack of discipline on the team.
Claeys was a part of the program that he took over, similar to Gutekunst. The transition was unusual, but there was continuity in the program and coaching staff that Gutey didn't have.
Fleck took over a team that had won seven conference games in the previous two years, including five the year before he assumed the role. He also inherited some roster issues due to injury (OL), recruiting failures (QB), and fallout from the SA scandal.
The numbers clearly demonstrate what we already knew: Wacker and Brewster performed below the other coaches in this conversation.
If you look below, Fleck is stronger in key areas but weaker in one critical area. Overall, I'd say that the program is in great shape and heading in the right direction. However, if you argue that this is a step forward, the step forward is that we are more consistently in a position to take the next step, not that we've actually taken it. Mason, Kill/Claeys, and Fleck are different variations of the same thing with different strengths, weaknesses, and upside.
Fleck's higher winning percentage against ranked teams is offset by the lower winning percentage against non-ranked teams. Fleck's weak point is the lower winning percentage against unranked opponents, winning 29 of 53 games, which is why I say the program may be in better shape than at any time in the past 40 years, but not in another tier above where Mason and Kill/Claeys got the program. I agree with the idea that there is more stability and more possibilities in the program today than in the past 40 years. However, in 8 seasons, we still haven't converted these possibilities into results. When we do that, then we've taken the next step. In total, the program has come a long way in 40 years, but as they say in marathon running, there are two halves to a marathon: the first 20 miles and the last 6. We need to finish this marathon. We can and we will, the question is when.
Notes:
- The Michigan ranking was omitted from the total of ranked games as it pulls Fleck's winning percentage against ranked teams down (unfairly in my opinion) when ranking was impossible to reflect any indication of the team's capabilities during that season.
- Because .500 seasons were a bigger reality pre-9 game conference season, I've included .500 seasons vs. only winning conference records since the results of winning records only are included in MNVCGUY's post above, and it provides some additional perspective for coaches that were making progress as the program rose from the ashes.
- Bolded numbers indicate the best mark in those numbers.
Gutey
B1G Games per season: 48
B1G Games per season: 8
B1G ranked opponents: 15
Average # of B1G ranked Opponents per season: 2.5
% of games against B1G ranked opponents: 31%
Winning % against B1G ranked opponents: 20%
% of games against B1G unranked opponents: 33
Winning % against B1G non-ranked opponents: 82%
.500+ Seasons: 3
Wacker
B1G Games: 40
B1G Games per season: 8
B1G ranked opponents: 13
Average # of B1G ranked Opponents per season: 2.6
Percentage of games against B1G ranked opponents: 33%
Winning % against B1G ranked opponents: 0%
% of games against B1G unranked opponents: 69%
Winning % against B1G non-ranked opponents:
.500+ Seasons: 0
Mason
B1G Games:
80
B1G Games per season: 8
B1G ranked opponents:
32
Average # of B1G ranked Opponents per season:
3.2
Percentage of games against B1G ranked opponents:
40%
Winning % against B1G ranked opponents: 9%
Winning % against B1G non-ranked opponents: 60%
.500+ Seasons: 4
Brewster
B1G Games:
B1G Games per season: 8
B1G ranked opponents:
Average # of B1G ranked Opponents per season:
Percentage of games against B1G ranked opponents:
Winning % against B1G ranked opponents:
% of games against B1G unranked opponents:
Winning % against B1G non-ranked opponents:
.500 Seasons:
Kill
B1G Games: 34 (1 partial season)
B1G Games per season: 8 (he only coached 3 B1G games in his final season.
B1G ranked opponents: 13
Average # of B1G ranked Opponents per season: 3 (only 1 of 3 games in his final partional season)
Percentage of games against B1G ranked opponents: 38%
Winning % against B1G ranked opponents: 15%
Winning % against B1G non-ranked opponents: 62%
.500+ Seasons: 2
Claeys
B1G Games: 14 (1 partial season)
B1G Games per season: 9 (he coached 5 B1G games in the partial season)
B1G ranked opponents: 5
Average # of B1G ranked Opponents per season: 8.5 (including the season he split with Kill).
Percentage of games against B1G ranked opponents: 36%
Winning % against B1G ranked opponents: 0%
% of games against B1G unranked opponents: 64%
Winning % against B1G non-ranked opponents:
75%
.500 Seasons: 1
Fleck
B1G Games: 72
B1G Games per season:
9
B1G ranked opponents: 19
Average # of B1G ranked Opponents per season: 2.375
Percentage of games against B1G ranked opponents: 26%
Winning % against B1G ranked opponents:
26%
% of games against B1G unranked opponents:
74%
Winning % against B1G non-ranked opponents: 55%
+.500 Seasons:
4