Fleck's Good Wins at Minnesota

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Roland Brooks said:
Oregon, Michigan, Ohio st and Penn St are somebody… beat one of those teams and you have a chance to take the next step and be relevant.. What is our record against those teams? 1-7 vs Iowa? Beat Iowa at least we would be champs of the 5 state area.. what is the best non conference win? Not bowl win!

Fleck has done a good job time to be better and be relevant… They have had chances to step up and pissed it away.. if I could get credit for a win for every time I have heard… “ This one is on me “… I would have 10 wins..
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Soooooo beating #5 Penn State isn't relevant?
 


mggoph said:
And sub .500 seasons for most of the 80's and 90's.

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And yet we have a respectable list of upsets and great wins starting in the last 80's and throughout the '90s that helped to get the program to where it is today.

The history of Gopher football post 1961 is rough, I agree, but we turned a corner with the hiring of Holtz, no matter how much people still hate him for leaving. Beginning in the '00s, we've built up and stabilized as a respectable football opponent in terms of results, with 63% of our regular seasons being at .500 or better. Put another way, the kids coming to college now in the '20s (born in the '00s) have known more winning than losing seasons from the Gophers in their lifetime. Something that hasn't been true since a kid born in the '40s.

The percentage of winning seasons by decade from the '60s on
'60s - 70% Warmath
'70s - 40% Warmath, Salem
'80s - 40% Salem, Holtz, and Gutekunst
'90s - 10% Gutey, Wacker, and Mason
'00s - 80% Mason, and the first few years of Brewster
'10s - 50% Brewster/Horton, Kill/Claeys, Claeys and Fleck
'20s (so far) - 60% Fleck

We turned the corner under Holtz and Gutey, took a massive step back with Wacker, then recovered and stabilized with Mason. Even though Maturi attempted to sabotage the program with the Brewster hire, Kill/Claeys and Claeys were able to reverse the academic decline under Brewster, which Fleck has driven even further. Football-wise, we are very stable at the Mason/Kill/Claeys/Fleck level.

Can we take the next step?

Percentage of winning seasons since Salem:
Holtz 50% - 2 seasons
Gutekunst: 67% - 6 seasons
Wacker: 0% - 5 seasons
Mason: 70% - 10 seasons
Brewster: 50% - 4 seasons
Kill/Claeys: 60% - 5 seasons
Claeys: 100% - 1 season
Fleck: 63% including 2020, 71% without
 
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caliGopher said:
And yet we have a respectable list of upsets and great wins starting in the last 80's and throughout the '90s that helped to get the program to where it is today.

The history of Gopher football post 1961 is rough, I agree, but we turned a corner with the hiring of Holtz, no matter how much people still hate him for leaving. Beginning in the '00s, we've built up and stabilized as a respectable football opponent in terms of results, with 63% of our regular seasons being at .500 or better. Put another way, the kids coming to college now in the '20s (born in the '00s) have known more winning than losing seasons from the Gophers in their lifetime. Something that hasn't been true since a kid born in the '40s.

The percentage of winning seasons by decade from the '60s on
'60s - 70% Warmath
'70s - 40% Warmath, Salem
'80s - 40% Salem, Holtz, and Gutekunst
'90s - 10% Gutey, Wacker, and Mason
'00s - 80% Mason, and the first few years of Brewster
'10s - 50% Brewster/Horton, Kill/Claeys, Claeys and Fleck
'20s (so far) - 60% Fleck

We turned the corner under Holtz and Gutey, took a massive step back with Wacker, then recovered and stabilized with Mason. Even though Maturi attempted to sabotage the program with the Brewster hire, Kill/Claeys and Claeys were able to reverse the academic decline under Brewster, which Fleck has driven even further. Football-wise, we are very stable at the Mason/Kill/Claeys/Fleck level.

Can we take the next step?

Percentage of winning seasons since Salem:
Holtz 50% - 2 seasons
Gutekunst: 67% - 6 seasons
Wacker: 0% - 5 seasons
Mason: 70% - 10 seasons
Brewster: 50% - 4 seasons
Kill/Claeys: 60% - 5 seasons
Claeys: 100% - 1 season
Fleck: 63% including 2020, 71% without
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Better way to measure success is # of conference seasons finishing over .500.

Fleck has gone over .500 in 4 of his 7 full seasons
Claeys did it during his interim year.
Kill did it one time during his time here
Brewster never finished over .500 in conference
Mason did it 2 times in 10 years
Wacker never finished over .500 in conference
Gutekunst did it 2 times in 6 years
Holtz got to .500 once but never finished over .500
Salem never did it.
Stoll did it 1 time during his time here.

So from Stoll to Claeys the U of M finished over .500 in the Big Ten a total of 7 times in 50+ years.

In 7 full seasons and one pandemic year Fleck has done it 4 times.

We have absolutely taken another step under Fleck from the stability that Mason/Kill provided during their time here. Still plenty of room for improvement and growth but we are in better shape under Fleck then we have been under any coach since Murray Warmath.
 

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btowngopher said:
If we aren’t double digit favorites it’s hard for me to say we should have certainly won. I don’t know the numbers, but I doubt we’ve lost one of those every year. Bowling Green is the only one I know for sure off the top of my head.
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Given the conservative nature of PJ's offenses, its hard to imagine our team being double digit favorites ever.
 

gophernut1 said:
This thread is more depressing than the "bad losses" thread because it has been hi-jacked by people who think demanding us to be like Ohio State will actually get us there, or think it adds anything to the conversation. I get hoping for more but and PJ deserves some critique but that is what the bad losses thread is for. This thread should be about what good has happened and what may be possible.

Programs are built and PJ is building a program that for decades was irrelevant. We are on the border of being a yearly top 25 team. We would be considered this already if we had previous historic success like Nebraska, Iowa or Wisconsin. Overall PJ beats the teams he should, if we are within a six point thread we typically win (except against Iowa) and we are competitive against the top national teams. PJ has put us in a spot where we can realistic see ourselves in the playoffs with a few breakout players in any given year.
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PF has been here since 2017. Where is the evidence that the program is still be built going into season 9? I would argue that the program is built and there isn't evidence of an upward trajectory anymore. The ceiling is 9 wins but probably the realistic expectation each year is 7 or 8 wins with 5 being in conference. The recruiting has improved -we're not competing with MAC schools any more - but still is bottom 1/3 to 1/4 of the conference. PJ does punch above his weight finishing higher than the recruiting rankings would suggest, but we aren't within sniffing distance of the CFP. The landscape is shifting. Maybe PJ will prove to be adept at managing the new pay for play environment but if its a continuation of the pre-NIL and NIL era, then we'll continue on the same plateau. And maybe that's as good as it gets for us.
 

Roland Brooks said:
Yep. Time to beat someone and be relevant outside the 5 state area.. It’s ok to raise expectations.. PJ has been good time to be better.. apparently the Gophers have had talent as you look at guys making NFL rosters or getting invited to camp.. we keep hearing about the recruiting.. Let’s beat somebody and be relevant .. bored with NIT bowl games…which IMO it’s a good sign to be bored.. the non conference schedule is trash usually so let’s beat someone relevant in conference..
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We've actually played Power 4/5 teams more often than not in the last 30 years. Here's our non-conference opponents in the AQ/P5/P4 since 1995.
  • 1995 - lost to Syracuse, finished 9-3, ranked No. 16/19. Minnesota finished 3-8.
  • 1996 - Defeated No. 23 Syracuse, finished as 9-3 Big East Champion, ranked No. 19/21. Minnesota finished 4-7
  • 1997 - Defeated Iowa State, finished 1-10. Minnesota finished 3-9
  • 2000 - Defeated Baylor, finished 2-9. Minnesota finished 6-6
  • 2006 - Lost to No. 22 Cal, finished year as 10-3 PAC 10 Champion, ranked No. 14/14. Minnesota finished 6-7
  • 2009 - Defeated Syracuse, finished 4-8. Minnesota finished 6-7.
  • 2009 - Lost to No. 8 Cal, finished year 8-5
  • 2010 - Lost to USC, finished year 8-5. Minnesota finished 3-9
  • 2011 - Lost to USC, finished year 10-2, ranked No. 6. Minnesota finished 3-9
  • 2012 - Defeated Syracuse, finished year as 8-5 Big East Champion. Minnesota finished 6-7
  • 2014 - Lost to TCU, finished year as 12-1 BIG 12 Champion, ranked No. 3/3. Minnesota finished 8-5
  • 2015 - Lost to No. 2 TCU, finished 11-2, ranked No. 7/7. Minnesota finished 6-7
  • 2016 - Defeated Oregon State, finished 4-8. Minnesota finished 9-4
  • 2017 - Defeated Oregon State, finished 1-11. Minnesota finished 5-7
  • 2021 - Defeated Colorado, finished 4-8. Minnesota finished 9-4
  • 2022 - Defeated Colorado, finished 1-11. Minnesota finished 9-4
  • 2023 - Lost to No. 20 North Carolina, finished 8-5. Minnesota finished 6-7
  • 2024 - Lost to North Carolina, finished 6-7. Minnesota finished 8-5
That's 18 AQ/P5/P4 opponents and the Gophers have a 9-9 record against them.

Also, the Gophers played two Group of 5 opponents that ended the year ranked.
  • 2001 - Lost to Toledo, finished year as 10-2 MAC Champion, ranked No. 22/23. Minnesota finished 4-7
  • 2018 - Defeated Fresno State, finished as 12-2 Mountain West Champion, ranked No. 18/18. Minnesota finished 7-6
And for reference here are the bowl opponents, which only featured two Group of 5 Teams.
  • 1999 - Lost to Oregon in the Sun Bowl. Oregon finished 9-3, ranked No. 18/19. Minnesota finished 8-4, ranked No. 17/18
  • 2000 - Lost to NC State in the Micron Bowl. NC State finished 8-4. Minnesota finished 6-6
  • 2002 - Defeated Arkansas in the Music City Bowl. Arkansas finished as 9-5 SEC West Champion. Minnesota finished 8-5
  • 2003 - Defeated Oregon in the Sun Bowl. Oregon finished 8-5. Minnesota finished 10-3, ranked No. 17/20
  • 2004 - Defeated Alabama in the Music City Bowl. Alabama finished 6-6. Minnesota finished 7-5
  • 2005 - Lost to Virginia in the Music City Bowl. Virginia finished 7-5. Minnesota finished 7-5
  • 2006 - Lost to Texas Tech in the Insight Bowl. Texas Tech finished 8-5. Minnesota finished 6-7
  • 2007 - Lost to Kansas in the Insight Bowl. Kansas finished 8-5. Minnesota finished 7-6
  • 2009 - Lost to Iowa State in the Insight Bowl. Iowa State finished 7-6. Minnesota finished 6-7
  • 2012 - Lost to Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl. Texas Tech finished 8-5. Minnesota finished 6-7
  • 2013 - Lost to Syracuse in the Texas Bowl. Syracuse finished 7-6. Minnesota finished 8-5
  • 2014 - Lost to No. 16 Missouri in the Citrus Bowl. Missouri finished as 11-3 SEC East Champion, ranked No. 11/14. Minnesota finished 8-5
  • 2015 - Defeated Central Michigan in the Motor City Bowl. Central Michigan finished 7-6. Minnesota finished 6-7
  • 2016 - Defeated Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. Washington State finished 8-5. Minnesota finished 9-4
  • 2018 - Defeated Georgia Tech in the Motor City Bowl. Georgia tech finished 7-6. Minnesota finished 7-6
  • 2019 - Defeated No. 12 Auburn in the Outback Bowl. Auburn finished 9-4, ranked 14/14. Minnesota finished 11-2, Ranked 10/10
  • 2021 - Defeated West Virginia in the Rate Bowl. West Virginia finished 6-7. Minnesota finished 9-4
  • 2022 - Defeated Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl. Syracuse finished 7-6. Minnesota finished 9-4
  • 2023 - Defeated Bowling Green in the Motor City Bowl. Bowling Green finished 7-6. Minnesota finished 6-7
  • 2024 - Defeated Virginia Tech in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Virginia Tech finished 6-7. Minnesota finished 8-5
 
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