Final Field of 68 Projection (March 12, 1:05 a.m.)

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SelectionSunday

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Here's my final projection for the 2016-17 season. RPIs are updated through Saturday's games.

A couple things. I'm not taking Syracuse despite the Orangemen's 6 RPI top-50 wins. I couldn't bring myself to take a team with a RPI of #84, 24 spots lower than the next lowest at-large RPI. The 'Cuse are the purest definition of a "home-court hero". All 6 of those top-50 wins took place at the Carrierdome. The Orangemen also have 5 bad losses (opponents with RPI of #101+), 2 more than any of my other final bubble teams. If the Orangemen do make it, they'll break their own record set last year (#72) for worst RPI ever to receive an at-large bid.

The last team in my field is USC. The Trojans (24-9) have a rather "blah" resume, but they do have a pair of top-shelf wins. Wins over SMU and UCLA as well as a 6-5 road record are the extent of the Trojan resume. I'm also banking on the fact the Selection Committee will recognize the Trojans played much of the season without stud Bennie Boatwright. He has since returned. With an extremely weak bubble this year, that might be enough to get in.

FINAL FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION
AUTOMATIC BIDS (32)
Big East: Villanova (1)
Pac 12: Arizona (2)
SEC: Kentucky (4)
ACC: Duke (7)
WCC: Gonzaga (8)
American: Cincinnati (12)/SMU (15) Sunday winner
Big XII: Iowa State (22)
Colonial: NC-Wilmington (27)
Mountain West: Nevada (29)
B1G: Michigan (30)/Wisconsin (32) Sunday winner
Missouri Valley: Wichita State (31)
Conference USA: Middle Tennessee (35)
Atlantic 10: Rhode Island (37)
America East: Vermont (46)
Ivy: Princeton (49)
Southern: East Tennessee State (55)
WAC: New Mexico Stae (59)
Patriot: Bucknell (63)
Big South: Winthrop (70)
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast (85)
Horizon: Northern Kentucky (87)
Metro Atlantic: Iona (88)
SWAC: Texas Southern (104)
MAC: Kent State (143)
Big Sky: North Dakota (144)
Northeast: Mount Saint Mary's (149)
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State (150)
Southland: New Orleans (151)
Summit: South Dakota State (154)
Sun Belt: Troy (159)
Big West: UC Davis (166)
MEAC: North Carolina Central (202)

AT-LARGE BIDS (36)
1 Kansas (2)
2 North Carolina (5)
3 Louisville (7)
4 Oregon (9)
5 Florida (10)
6 Baylor (11)
7 Cincinnati (12)/SMU (15) Sunday loser
8 Florida State (13)
9 Butler (14)
10 UCLA (16)
11 Saint Mary's (17)
12 Virginia (18)
13 VCU (19)
14 Purdue (20)
15 GOPHERS (21)
16 Notre Dame (23)
17 West Virginia (24)
18 Arkansas (25)
19 Creighton (26)
20 Dayton (28)
21 Michigan (30)/Wisconsin (32) Sunday loser
22 Maryland (34)
23 Xavier (36)
24 Vanderbilt (38)
25 Wake Forest (39)
26 Oklahoma State (40)
27 USC (41) -- the Trojans are the "last team in" my Field of 68
28 Miami (42)
29 South Carolina (43)
30 Seton Hall (44)
31 Virginia Tech (47)
32 Northwestern (50)
33 Michigan State (51)
34 Providence (56)
35 Kansas State (57)
36 Marquette (60)


Last 4 In: Xavier (36), Wake Forest (39), USC (41), Kansas State (57)

First 4 Out: Illinois State (33), Texas-Arlington (45), Iowa (81), Syracuse (84)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Cincinnati (12)/SMU (15) loser, Saint Mary's (17), VCU (19), Dayton (28)

GOPHERS vs. THE PROJECTED FIELD (8-7)
Mount Saint Mary's (W)
Arkansas (W)
@ Florida State (L)
vs. Vanderbilt (W)
Michigan State (L)
@ Purdue (W)
@ Northwestern (W)
@ Michigan State (L)
Wisconsin (L)
Maryland (L)
Michigan (W)
@ Maryland (W)
@ Wisconsin (L)
vs. Michigan State (W)
vs. Michigan (L)

PROJECTED GOPHERS NCAA SEED/OPPONENT/LOCATION
#6 GOPHERS vs. #11 Virginia Tech, Indianapolis
 

Syracuse is by far the most interesting of all the bubble teams I see.
Very impressive wins, but many losses and a very low RPI.
It would be a new low for RPI for an at large bid.

ESPN will be upset if they don't make it because they have them as in
 

37score said:
Syracuse is by far the most interesting of all the bubble teams I see.
Very impressive wins, but many losses and a very low RPI.
It would be a new low for RPI for an at large bid.

ESPN will be upset if they don't make it because they have them as in
Click to expand...

Agree. 'Cuse is a really interesting case study for the Selection Committee (again). I try to avoid putting much emphasis on a team's individual RPI, but in this case I just couldn't do it. #84 is #84, and I also couldn't look past the 5 bad losses, 2-8 road record and 2-11 road/neutral record.

That's the only difference Lunardi and I have. He took Syracuse, I took USC. Haven't checked for Palm's final projection yet.
 

Hey SS. Really appreciate your content. I just checked ESPN's bracketology, where Michigan got bumped to a 6 and Minnesota still at a 7. I look at their respective resumes and I cannot understand this seeding. The only part of a resume which may favor Michigan is record against rpi top 25. Michigan is 4-2 and Minnesota is 2-1. That said, every other comparison (at least on the espn page; sos, rpi, non-conf rpi, road record, overall record, record against top 50 rip) favors minnesota.

Is there a legitimate argument to be had for seeding Michigan higher than Minnesota? Let's assume Michigan loses today and/or the committee disregards the result of the big ten championship like they've done before because it happens so late.

Also, apologies if this is being discussed elsewhere on the boards.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

If Michigan wins the B1G Tournament I could see them being a 7, but not any higher than that. Seems to me at worst the Gophers should be is a 6, and I don't think a 5 is a stretch. IMO the biggest thing the Gophers have going for them is the quality of their true road wins. ... Purdue, Northwestern, and Maryland. The committee is going to notice the work the Gophers did in true road games. Michigan does not have that.
 


Multiple-Bid Conferences

The breakdown of multiple-bid conferences in my Field of 68:

ACC (9)
Big East (7)
B1G (7)
Big XII (6)
SEC (5)
Pac 12 (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
American (2)
West Coast (2)

68 Total Bids
Power 6 (ACC/Big East/B1G/Big XII/Pac 12/SEC) = 38 (55.9%)
Non-Power 6 = 30 (44.1%)
 

SelectionSunday said:
Agree. 'Cuse is a really interesting case study for the Selection Committee (again). I try to avoid putting much emphasis on a team's individual RPI, but in this case I just couldn't do it. #84 is #84, and I also couldn't look past the 5 bad losses, 2-8 road record and 2-11 road/neutral record.

That's the only difference Lunardi and I have. He took Syracuse, I took USC. Haven't checked for Palm's final projection yet.
Click to expand...

I don't like to rely on RPI as the end all, be all, but I do use it for comparing to other years.

Certain things with the RPI seem to be rules.
Big Conference with an RPI 1-40. You're in.
RPI 70 or below, never happened.

You can look at Syracuse and see a lot of nice wins, but then you still have to ask why the RPI looks that week instead of them having an RPI of 10-25.

Then you look further and it's because they have these losses.

104 Georgia Tech
108 Georgetown
120 Connecticut
129 Saint John's
215 Boston College


Well, beat two of those five and you have no issues.
 

SelectionSunday said:
If Michigan wins the B1G Tournament I could see them being a 7, but not any higher than that. Seems to me at worst the Gophers should be is a 6, and I don't think a 5 is a stretch. IMO the biggest thing the Gophers have going for them is the quality of their true road wins. ... Purdue, Northwestern, and Maryland. The committee is going to notice the work the Gophers did in true road games. Michigan does not have that.
Click to expand...

Seeding wise, I give MN a 75% chance of getting a 6 seed.
About 8% chance at a 5 seed.
A 17% chance of a 7 seed.

My guess at Big Ten Seeding:

Wisconsin 5
Purdue 5
Minnesota 6
Maryland 7
Michigan (if they win today 6) loss = 7
Northwestern = 10
MSU = 10
 

Virginia Tech would be a really tough 11 seed I see them as more of 7, 8, or 9.
 



anyone have a prediction on how many pac 12 teams will get a #2 seed? My guess is just Arizona and Oregon.
 


SelectionSunday, great work as always. Can you please post your results vs the "experts" so those new to GH can see how well you've done vs them through the years.
 




SelectionSunday said:
The breakdown of multiple-bid conferences in my Field of 68:

ACC (9)
Big East (7)
B1G (7)
Big XII (6)
SEC (5)
Pac 12 (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
American (2)
West Coast (2)

68 Total Bids
Power 6 (ACC/Big East/B1G/Big XII/Pac 12/SEC) = 38 (55.9%)
Non-Power 6 = 30 (44.1%)
Click to expand...

The Big East is going to get a lot of bids for a mid-major conference.
 

With Rhode Island earning the A-10 auto bid, Kansas State becomes one of my "last 4 in" at-larges.
 

dpodoll68 said:
The Big East is going to get a lot of bids for a mid-major conference.
Click to expand...

Using my own discretion here. Until proven otherwise, I consider Big East a power (basketball) conference. Certainly understand viewpoint of those who don't agree.
 

Palm, Lunardi, SS

GopherHole Staff said:
SelectionSunday, great work as always. Can you please post your results vs the "experts" so those new to GH can see how well you've done vs them through the years.
Click to expand...

Since the field expanded to 68 (2010-11 season):

Jerry Palm 210 of 219 at-larges correct (95.9%)

Joe Lunardi 209 of 219 (95.4%)

Me 208 of 219 (95%)

I've projected the at-larges since the 1991-92 season. In those 25 seasons I am 815 for 865 (94.2%). That's an average of 2 misses per season. Was perfect on 3 occasions (2013-14 season the last time), but last year was my worst (32 of 36) since 1997-98 season, the last time I had missed more than 3.
 

Impressive stats SS. Great stuff. I appreciate your work every year (usually as just a lurker)
 



Why aren't you on one of those shows? Those guys got nothing on you!!
 


Nice work SS. Hard to believe you do this for free and Myron Metcalf gets paid for what he does.
 

Congrats on your 4th perfect bracket "season" SS!
 


Thanks everyone. I needed a bounce-back year after a rough one last year.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Using my own discretion here. Until proven otherwise, I consider Big East a power (basketball) conference. Certainly understand viewpoint of those who don't agree.
Click to expand...

Ha, it wasn't anything against your work, just a jab at all of the posters who ignore basic stats and pretend that the Big East isn't one of the top 2-3 conferences in the country.

Fantastic work as always!
 

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