Even with poor non-conference slate, 21 wins should get the Gophers a ticket to the Madness

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BTChamp said:
Another honest question. Close losses. Do the close losses to Purdue on the road, whyowa on the road, commies at home, Missouri at home: help, hurt, or is it mathematics only? Meaning does the acceptance committee care about the closeness of a high rated loss vs low rated losses or not? I know it was a shit out of conference schedule, but really only 1 disgusting game against SF. If they are 1 game over in the Big before the tournament, what do think? 2 wins in the tourney gets a prom invitation?
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By far the Gopher resume's biggest issue is the horrific non-conference schedule. There's just no way to overstate it in terms of how much it will hurt them if they end up on the bubble. And it's not just that it was awful (currently worst in the country at #362), it's that the committee can look at the only 2 decent opponents and what they'll find is a 20-point blown lead (at home) vs. a currently winless SEC team and a non-competitive loss to San Francisco. They whiffed on both opportunities.

Minnesota Golden Gophers NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Minnesota Golden Gophers 2024 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

Bottom line is I think the Gophers need to finish 12-8 in the Big Ten (would mean a 5-1 finish) to feel like they have a decent chance to snag an at-large bid. Even then, I'd suggest they win another one at Target Center (vs. a likely NCAA qualifier) to seal the deal.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
By far the Gopher resume's biggest issue is the horrific non-conference schedule. There's just no way to overstate it in terms of how much it will hurt them if they end up on the bubble. And it's not just that it was awful (currently worst in the country at #362), it's that the committee can look at the only 2 decent opponents and what they'll find is a 20-point blown lead (at home) vs. a currently winless SEC team and a non-competitive loss to San Francisco. They whiffed on both opportunities.

Minnesota Golden Gophers NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Minnesota Golden Gophers 2024 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

Bottom line is I think the Gophers need to finish 12-8 in the Big Ten (would mean a 5-1 finish) to feel like they have a decent chance to snag an at-large bid. Even then, I'd suggest they win another one at Target Center (vs. a likely NCAA qualifier) to seal the deal.
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Thanks for the reply. Just an average ooc would be nice. Or even not start with a 3....
 

SelectionSunday said:
By far the Gopher resume's biggest issue is the horrific non-conference schedule. There's just no way to overstate it in terms of how much it will hurt them if they end up on the bubble. And it's not just that it was awful (currently worst in the country at #362), it's that the committee can look at the only 2 decent opponents and what they'll find is a 20-point blown lead (at home) vs. a currently winless SEC team and a non-competitive loss to San Francisco. They whiffed on both opportunities.

Minnesota Golden Gophers NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Minnesota Golden Gophers 2024 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

Bottom line is I think the Gophers need to finish 12-8 in the Big Ten (would mean a 5-1 finish) to feel like they have a decent chance to snag an at-large bid. Even then, I'd suggest they win another one at Target Center (vs. a likely NCAA qualifier) to seal the deal.
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Or just win the BTT. Its more likely than an at-large berth and far from impossible, IMO.
 

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Minnesota&year=2024

Here's a really fun site that let's you choose different outcomes for the final 6 games, as well as simulate the big ten tourney, to see just what it would take for the Gophers to dance. Obviously it's a long shot, but kind of fun to play around with regardless. You can also go back and change results. So you can see how they'd be looking if they made their FTs vs. Wisco and didn't blow the big leads vs. Iowa and Mizzou.

The site currently has them as the 20th "first team out". So a long ways to go.
 

SelectionSunday said:
By far the Gopher resume's biggest issue is the horrific non-conference schedule. There's just no way to overstate it in terms of how much it will hurt them if they end up on the bubble. And it's not just that it was awful (currently worst in the country at #362), it's that the committee can look at the only 2 decent opponents and what they'll find is a 20-point blown lead (at home) vs. a currently winless SEC team and a non-competitive loss to San Francisco. They whiffed on both opportunities.
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That's exactly right. It's not any particular game. It's the whole nonconference schedule. 6 of the 11 teams are ranked (by NET) in the 280s or below. 3 more are ranked between 230 and 260. We lost to the one true good team by 18 and the 8th lowest rated P6 team by 2 at home. We had so much riding on the performances against those last two teams but we lost to both of them.

I understand why someone in the coach's situation last offseason would want to design an easier nonconference schedule but that could have been done without aiming so low. Live and learn. I doubt we'll see a nonconference schedule this weak next season. I'm not that upset about it because I never imagined the team would have a chance at the NCAA tournament before the season started.
 


blevanhoval said:
https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Minnesota&year=2024

Here's a really fun site that let's you choose different outcomes for the final 6 games, as well as simulate the big ten tourney, to see just what it would take for the Gophers to dance. Obviously it's a long shot, but kind of fun to play around with regardless. You can also go back and change results. So you can see how they'd be looking if they made their FTs vs. Wisco and didn't blow the big leads vs. Iowa and Mizzou.

The site currently has them as the 20th "first team out". So a long ways to go.
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I know that site but I didn't know you could do "what-if" manipulations to the data. Thanks!
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
That's exactly right. It's not any particular game. It's the whole nonconference schedule. 6 of the 11 teams are ranked (by NET) in the 280s or below. 3 more are ranked between 230 and 260. We lost to the one true good team by 18 and the 8th lowest rated P6 team by 2 at home. We had so much riding on the performances against those last two teams but we lost to both of them.

I understand why someone in the coach's situation last offseason would want to design an easier nonconference schedule but that could have been done without aiming so low. Live and learn. I doubt we'll see a nonconference schedule this weak next season. I'm not that upset about it because I never imagined the team would have a chance at the NCAA tournament before the season started.
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No one thought we’d be trying to get into the dance at this point.

It Must be hard to focus on classes with Thursday night beckoning.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
I know that site but I didn't know you could do "what-if" manipulations to the data. Thanks!
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So I had us win out the regular season and go 1-1 at the BTT with a loss to Purdue and…..

We were the first team out! Lol

SS, has a 13-7 B1G team ever failed to make the tournament?

I guess if anyone was to do this, it would be us.
 

SelectionSunday said:
By far the Gopher resume's biggest issue is the horrific non-conference schedule. There's just no way to overstate it in terms of how much it will hurt them if they end up on the bubble. And it's not just that it was awful (currently worst in the country at #362), it's that the committee can look at the only 2 decent opponents and what they'll find is a 20-point blown lead (at home) vs. a currently winless SEC team and a non-competitive loss to San Francisco. They whiffed on both opportunities.

Minnesota Golden Gophers NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Minnesota Golden Gophers 2024 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

Bottom line is I think the Gophers need to finish 12-8 in the Big Ten (would mean a 5-1 finish) to feel like they have a decent chance to snag an at-large bid. Even then, I'd suggest they win another one at Target Center (vs. a likely NCAA qualifier) to seal the deal.
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feel like even if it's 5-1 and they lose to Illinois, probably still don't have a chance unless they win 2 games in the BTT
 



upnorthkid said:
feel like even if it's 5-1 and they lose to Illinois, probably still don't have a chance unless they win 2 games in the BTT
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That's probably true but it would be truly great and exciting at this point if they pulled off a finish like the one you described (or very close) to test that theory.
 

Otis said:
So I had us win out the regular season and go 1-1 at the BTT with a loss to Purdue and…..

We were the first team out! Lol

SS, has a 13-7 B1G team ever failed to make the tournament?

I guess if anyone was to do this, it would be us.
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In 2018, Nebraska had a 13-5 regular season conference record and a 22-10 overall record after the Big Ten tournament and didn't get selected. The committee took only 4 Big Ten teams that year. The conference had 6 teams with overall losing records that season.

Nebraska compounded the pain by losing their first game in the NIT.
 

Otis said:
So I had us win out the regular season and go 1-1 at the BTT with a loss to Purdue and…..

We were the first team out! Lol

SS, has a 13-7 B1G team ever failed to make the tournament?

I guess if anyone was to do this, it would be us.
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I think an epic run like that would pull on some heart strings and be a feel good story 🤞

I’m going to remain upbeat and hopeful till the culmination of the B10 Tournament.
 




With the win over OSU, Gophers improve to 3-4 in Hodger’s “Likely Underdog But Doable (go 5-3)” bucket.

Go Gophers!!
 

I think the best for my state of mind is that realistically we aren't getting in the dance unless we win the BTT. According to the generally unbiased bracketology guys, we're really not close to the bubble.

I would imagine that if we won out and then a game in the BTT we'd be right there, but that's a pretty big long shot, even though we're playing great ball.

Right now it's just fun to watch. Do what you can and let the chips fall where they may.

We're not close to the same team we were when we lost to San Fran and Mizzou and that's great but unfortunate at the same time just do to resume.

Will just be fun to watch the last couple weeks here and then get ready for the BTT to see what happens.
 

skiumah1 said:
I think the best for my state of mind is that realistically we aren't getting in the dance unless we win the BTT. According to the generally unbiased bracketology guys, we're really not close to the bubble.

I would imagine that if we won out and then a game in the BTT we'd be right there, but that's a pretty big long shot, even though we're playing great ball.

Right now it's just fun to watch. Do what you can and let the chips fall where they may.

We're not close to the same team we were when we lost to San Fran and Mizzou and that's great but unfortunate at the same time just do to resume.

Will just be fun to watch the last couple weeks here and then get ready for the BTT to see what happens.
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If we won out, we'd likely be the #2 Seed in the tournament. That would also mean 22 wins, 3 quad 1 wins, and a top 15 win. It would also equate to 10-2 over the last 12 games. They would be in and wouldn't need to win a tournament game.

Not going to happen, but man this team is really fun to watch right now.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
If we won out, we'd likely be the #2 Seed in the tournament. That would also mean 22 wins, 3 quad 1 wins, and a top 15 win. It would also equate to 10-2 over the last 12 games. They would be in and wouldn't need to win a tournament game.

Not going to happen, but man this team is really fun to watch right now.
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Bookmarked😉
 

MaxyJR1 said:
If we won out, we'd likely be the #2 Seed in the tournament. That would also mean 22 wins, 3 quad 1 wins, and a top 15 win. It would also equate to 10-2 over the last 12 games. They would be in and wouldn't need to win a tournament game.

Not going to happen, but man this team is really fun to watch right now.
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Highly unlikely.....but yeah.....a 13-7 conference record would get them in. I would be surprised if they weren't ranked at that point. Even winning four out of the next five would probably have the Gophers getting votes at the very least.

But it's all speculation. Winning on the road is incredibly difficult and our three remaining road games are all against teams we're looking up at in the conference pecking order. Getting three wins in the next five would be great....and leave the Gophers with a winning BT record.....which we've only seen three times since the turn of the century.

Regardless.....three or four wins in the last five is probably necessary to have a shot at the tournament. And then I think the Gophers would have to reach the semi-final game (depending on which games the Gophers win to close out the season) to have a legitimate shot.
 


skiumah1 said:
I think the best for my state of mind is that realistically we aren't getting in the dance unless we win the BTT. According to the generally unbiased bracketology guys, we're really not close to the bubble.

I would imagine that if we won out and then a game in the BTT we'd be right there, but that's a pretty big long shot, even though we're playing great ball.

Right now it's just fun to watch. Do what you can and let the chips fall where they may.

We're not close to the same team we were when we lost to San Fran and Mizzou and that's great but unfortunate at the same time just do to resume.

Will just be fun to watch the last couple weeks here and then get ready for the BTT to see what happens.
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The committee in the past has said they do take into account if teams are playing well down the stretch or not. If the Gophers are to even be considered, that would mean they've continued to play well the rest of the regular season and conference tournament. That would help a little anyways.
 

GophersInIowa said:
The committee in the past has said they do take into account if teams are playing well down the stretch or not. If the Gophers are to even be considered, that would mean they've continued to play well the rest of the regular season and conference tournament. That would help a little anyways.
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Yeah I've heard them talk about HOT teams as well.

In my view it just seems more realistic that we would be happy to win 1 out of those 3 road games and then take care of the 2 at home. That would be solid.

That'll all change if we get this W at Nebraska though. I will become irrational about how good we are haha
 

I think the exact number of wins won’t matter so much as who those wins came against and who the losses came against. Could be 20 wins, could take 23.
 





You think even with win out, making B1G championship game and falling we’d still be out? I tend to think so but was wondering!
 

PoockItInfor6 said:
You think even with win out, making B1G championship game and falling we’d still be out? I tend to think so but was wondering!
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Even if the Gophers did all that, that would only get them on the bubble. Then at that point, their non-conference schedule would keep them out.

Have to win the Big Ten Tournament.
 
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The “50/50” and “heavy lifting” evened out to what you said we needed, assuming two more home wins.

If we win at NW then the “doable” was one off.

So you’re saying with those three wins we were one off from making the tourny?
 

SelectionSunday said:
Even if the Gophers did all that, that would only get them on the bubble. Then at that point, their non-conference schedule would keep them out.

Have to win the Big Ten Tournament.
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I can't fathom how a 23-12 (11-9) Big Ten team wouldn't make the tournament.. that's ridiculous. The non-conference happened 3-4 months ago.
 

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