BleedGopher
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per Bill:
On Saturday, we got the clearest impression yet that Harbaugh's 2021 Wolverines have regained their edge. That they blew out an outmanned Northern Illinois team wasn't in itself very telling; the lack of mercy they showed, however -- even while emptying the bench -- might have been. Up 28-3 late in the first half, Cade McNamara went deep to Cornelius Johnson for an 87-yard score. Running backs Blake Corum and blue-chipper Donovan Edwards scored on romps of 51 and 58 yards, respectively, in the third quarter. The Wolverines scored touchdowns on their first nine possessions, and after driving 72 yards for a field goal in the first quarter, NIU gained just 61 yards over its next eight drives. Final score: UM 63, NIU 10.
Michigan is 3-0 and has rocketed up to sixth in SP+. From a numbers perspective, the Wolverines have been unassailable. Corum and receiver A.J. Henning give them both versatility and genuine speed on the edge. Hassan Haskins remains a powerful option in the backfield, and Edwards (15 carries for 117 yards this year) might command more playing time soon. That McNamara went 8-for-11 passing for 191 yards on Saturday might have assuaged at least some of the "what happens when they actually have to pass?" concerns that swelled through two games, and Johnson's long touchdown dropped hints as to who will step forward in the receiving corps with leader Ronnie Bell out for the season.
For those who remain Michigan skeptics despite the strong start, that's fine. Sensible, even. With the disappointing ways the Wolverines' seasons have tended to end -- three losses in four games in 2016, three losses in a row in 2017, two in a row in 2018 and 2019, four in five games in 2020 -- they still face the burden of proof. They have a battery of tests ahead, too, with a Week 4 visit from 3-0 Rutgers and road trips to Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nebraska before Halloween. But they've looked the part so far. They're not alone.
These are heady days in Big Ten country, and not only because the ennui wafting from Ann Arbor has died down (for now). The ice cream tastes a little sweeter at the Michigan State and Penn State dairies. The burgers at Short's in Iowa City are a little juicier. Iowa and Penn State are both in the top six in the AP poll, and Michigan, Maryland, Michigan State and Rutgers are each 3-0 for the first time since 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2012, respectively. Of the 15 power-conference teams with at least a 4% chance of going 11-1 or better, per SP+, five reside in the Big Ten. Even if Alabama and Georgia win out in the regular season and gobble up two of the four spots in the College Football Playoff -- which is obviously far from guaranteed -- the oddity of the early season and the sheer depth of options within the Big Ten could mean that it has a chance at scoring both of the other two spots.
Technically, Ohio State is one of those teams. The Buckeyes still enjoy the highest SP+ ranking in the conference and have a 9% chance of finishing 11-1 or better.
Odds of finishing 11-1 or better, per SP+:
Penn State 20.1%
Michigan 19.4%
Iowa 13.6%
Ohio State 9.0%
Wisconsin 4.3%
Maryland 0.9%
Michigan State 0.8%
Minnesota 0.6%
The Buckeyes clearly are still good. But while all of these rousing stories were taking shape on Saturday, the four-time defending Big Ten champions were seriously contemplating losing to Tulsa.
The 0-3 Golden Hurricane had the ball in Ohio State territory, midway through the fourth quarter, with a chance to tie the score before Tyleik Williams' huge sack of Davis Brin forced them to punt. The Buckeyes finally put the game away with a 12-yard C.J. Stroud-to-Garrett Wilson touchdown and a Cameron Martinez pick-six. But this game seemed far closer than the 41-20 final score and did little to soothe the anxieties that followed their similarly competitive win over Minnesota in Week 1 and their loss to Oregon in Week 2.
The Buckeyes' offense remains dynamite, of course, ranking first in offensive SP+ and fifth in yards per play (8.1). Backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams are averaging 9 yards per carry, and receivers Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are on pace for a combined 200 catches and 3,000 yards. But after allowing 6.9 yards per play to Oregon, the Buckeyes allowed 6.1 against Tulsa. They have slid to 39th in defensive SP+, and with a large number of strong (read: better than Tulsa) teams remaining on the slate, SP+ indeed gives them only a 9% chance of getting to 11-1. Those are almost equal to their odds of going 7-5 or worse.
While some other Big Ten fan bases are assuredly abuzz because of their respective teams' strong play, the buzz doubles when you realize there isn't an unstoppable behemoth atop your conference keeping your ambitions in check.
www.espn.com
Go Gophers!!
Two Big Ten teams will make the CFP ... and Ohio State won't be one of them
Back in the early days of Jim Harbaugh's time at Michigan, his Wolverines wouldn't just beat overmatched opponents, they would make examples of them. They allowed 14 points in a five-game stretch of blowouts early in 2015. They humiliated Hawaii, Rutgers and Maryland by a combined 200-6 in 2016. They've still seen some blowout wins since, but the edge, the outright willingness to offend, was not quite the same.On Saturday, we got the clearest impression yet that Harbaugh's 2021 Wolverines have regained their edge. That they blew out an outmanned Northern Illinois team wasn't in itself very telling; the lack of mercy they showed, however -- even while emptying the bench -- might have been. Up 28-3 late in the first half, Cade McNamara went deep to Cornelius Johnson for an 87-yard score. Running backs Blake Corum and blue-chipper Donovan Edwards scored on romps of 51 and 58 yards, respectively, in the third quarter. The Wolverines scored touchdowns on their first nine possessions, and after driving 72 yards for a field goal in the first quarter, NIU gained just 61 yards over its next eight drives. Final score: UM 63, NIU 10.
Michigan is 3-0 and has rocketed up to sixth in SP+. From a numbers perspective, the Wolverines have been unassailable. Corum and receiver A.J. Henning give them both versatility and genuine speed on the edge. Hassan Haskins remains a powerful option in the backfield, and Edwards (15 carries for 117 yards this year) might command more playing time soon. That McNamara went 8-for-11 passing for 191 yards on Saturday might have assuaged at least some of the "what happens when they actually have to pass?" concerns that swelled through two games, and Johnson's long touchdown dropped hints as to who will step forward in the receiving corps with leader Ronnie Bell out for the season.
For those who remain Michigan skeptics despite the strong start, that's fine. Sensible, even. With the disappointing ways the Wolverines' seasons have tended to end -- three losses in four games in 2016, three losses in a row in 2017, two in a row in 2018 and 2019, four in five games in 2020 -- they still face the burden of proof. They have a battery of tests ahead, too, with a Week 4 visit from 3-0 Rutgers and road trips to Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nebraska before Halloween. But they've looked the part so far. They're not alone.
These are heady days in Big Ten country, and not only because the ennui wafting from Ann Arbor has died down (for now). The ice cream tastes a little sweeter at the Michigan State and Penn State dairies. The burgers at Short's in Iowa City are a little juicier. Iowa and Penn State are both in the top six in the AP poll, and Michigan, Maryland, Michigan State and Rutgers are each 3-0 for the first time since 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2012, respectively. Of the 15 power-conference teams with at least a 4% chance of going 11-1 or better, per SP+, five reside in the Big Ten. Even if Alabama and Georgia win out in the regular season and gobble up two of the four spots in the College Football Playoff -- which is obviously far from guaranteed -- the oddity of the early season and the sheer depth of options within the Big Ten could mean that it has a chance at scoring both of the other two spots.
Technically, Ohio State is one of those teams. The Buckeyes still enjoy the highest SP+ ranking in the conference and have a 9% chance of finishing 11-1 or better.
Odds of finishing 11-1 or better, per SP+:
Penn State 20.1%
Michigan 19.4%
Iowa 13.6%
Ohio State 9.0%
Wisconsin 4.3%
Maryland 0.9%
Michigan State 0.8%
Minnesota 0.6%
The Buckeyes clearly are still good. But while all of these rousing stories were taking shape on Saturday, the four-time defending Big Ten champions were seriously contemplating losing to Tulsa.
The 0-3 Golden Hurricane had the ball in Ohio State territory, midway through the fourth quarter, with a chance to tie the score before Tyleik Williams' huge sack of Davis Brin forced them to punt. The Buckeyes finally put the game away with a 12-yard C.J. Stroud-to-Garrett Wilson touchdown and a Cameron Martinez pick-six. But this game seemed far closer than the 41-20 final score and did little to soothe the anxieties that followed their similarly competitive win over Minnesota in Week 1 and their loss to Oregon in Week 2.
The Buckeyes' offense remains dynamite, of course, ranking first in offensive SP+ and fifth in yards per play (8.1). Backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams are averaging 9 yards per carry, and receivers Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are on pace for a combined 200 catches and 3,000 yards. But after allowing 6.9 yards per play to Oregon, the Buckeyes allowed 6.1 against Tulsa. They have slid to 39th in defensive SP+, and with a large number of strong (read: better than Tulsa) teams remaining on the slate, SP+ indeed gives them only a 9% chance of getting to 11-1. Those are almost equal to their odds of going 7-5 or worse.
While some other Big Ten fan bases are assuredly abuzz because of their respective teams' strong play, the buzz doubles when you realize there isn't an unstoppable behemoth atop your conference keeping your ambitions in check.
Michigan to the playoff? Four-loss Clemson? Bold predictions after three chaotic weeks
We've seen our share of surprises and near misses already, but we want more -- and think we know just where to look.
Go Gophers!!
