ESPN: Two Big Ten teams will make the CFP ... and Ohio State won't be one of them

BleedGopher

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per Bill:

Two Big Ten teams will make the CFP ... and Ohio State won't be one of them​

Back in the early days of Jim Harbaugh's time at Michigan, his Wolverines wouldn't just beat overmatched opponents, they would make examples of them. They allowed 14 points in a five-game stretch of blowouts early in 2015. They humiliated Hawaii, Rutgers and Maryland by a combined 200-6 in 2016. They've still seen some blowout wins since, but the edge, the outright willingness to offend, was not quite the same.

On Saturday, we got the clearest impression yet that Harbaugh's 2021 Wolverines have regained their edge. That they blew out an outmanned Northern Illinois team wasn't in itself very telling; the lack of mercy they showed, however -- even while emptying the bench -- might have been. Up 28-3 late in the first half, Cade McNamara went deep to Cornelius Johnson for an 87-yard score. Running backs Blake Corum and blue-chipper Donovan Edwards scored on romps of 51 and 58 yards, respectively, in the third quarter. The Wolverines scored touchdowns on their first nine possessions, and after driving 72 yards for a field goal in the first quarter, NIU gained just 61 yards over its next eight drives. Final score: UM 63, NIU 10.

Michigan is 3-0 and has rocketed up to sixth in SP+. From a numbers perspective, the Wolverines have been unassailable. Corum and receiver A.J. Henning give them both versatility and genuine speed on the edge. Hassan Haskins remains a powerful option in the backfield, and Edwards (15 carries for 117 yards this year) might command more playing time soon. That McNamara went 8-for-11 passing for 191 yards on Saturday might have assuaged at least some of the "what happens when they actually have to pass?" concerns that swelled through two games, and Johnson's long touchdown dropped hints as to who will step forward in the receiving corps with leader Ronnie Bell out for the season.

For those who remain Michigan skeptics despite the strong start, that's fine. Sensible, even. With the disappointing ways the Wolverines' seasons have tended to end -- three losses in four games in 2016, three losses in a row in 2017, two in a row in 2018 and 2019, four in five games in 2020 -- they still face the burden of proof. They have a battery of tests ahead, too, with a Week 4 visit from 3-0 Rutgers and road trips to Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nebraska before Halloween. But they've looked the part so far. They're not alone.

These are heady days in Big Ten country, and not only because the ennui wafting from Ann Arbor has died down (for now). The ice cream tastes a little sweeter at the Michigan State and Penn State dairies. The burgers at Short's in Iowa City are a little juicier. Iowa and Penn State are both in the top six in the AP poll, and Michigan, Maryland, Michigan State and Rutgers are each 3-0 for the first time since 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2012, respectively. Of the 15 power-conference teams with at least a 4% chance of going 11-1 or better, per SP+, five reside in the Big Ten. Even if Alabama and Georgia win out in the regular season and gobble up two of the four spots in the College Football Playoff -- which is obviously far from guaranteed -- the oddity of the early season and the sheer depth of options within the Big Ten could mean that it has a chance at scoring both of the other two spots.

Technically, Ohio State is one of those teams. The Buckeyes still enjoy the highest SP+ ranking in the conference and have a 9% chance of finishing 11-1 or better.

Odds of finishing 11-1 or better, per SP+:
Penn State 20.1%
Michigan 19.4%
Iowa 13.6%
Ohio State 9.0%
Wisconsin 4.3%
Maryland 0.9%
Michigan State 0.8%
Minnesota 0.6%

The Buckeyes clearly are still good. But while all of these rousing stories were taking shape on Saturday, the four-time defending Big Ten champions were seriously contemplating losing to Tulsa.

The 0-3 Golden Hurricane had the ball in Ohio State territory, midway through the fourth quarter, with a chance to tie the score before Tyleik Williams' huge sack of Davis Brin forced them to punt. The Buckeyes finally put the game away with a 12-yard C.J. Stroud-to-Garrett Wilson touchdown and a Cameron Martinez pick-six. But this game seemed far closer than the 41-20 final score and did little to soothe the anxieties that followed their similarly competitive win over Minnesota in Week 1 and their loss to Oregon in Week 2.

The Buckeyes' offense remains dynamite, of course, ranking first in offensive SP+ and fifth in yards per play (8.1). Backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams are averaging 9 yards per carry, and receivers Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are on pace for a combined 200 catches and 3,000 yards. But after allowing 6.9 yards per play to Oregon, the Buckeyes allowed 6.1 against Tulsa. They have slid to 39th in defensive SP+, and with a large number of strong (read: better than Tulsa) teams remaining on the slate, SP+ indeed gives them only a 9% chance of getting to 11-1. Those are almost equal to their odds of going 7-5 or worse.

While some other Big Ten fan bases are assuredly abuzz because of their respective teams' strong play, the buzz doubles when you realize there isn't an unstoppable behemoth atop your conference keeping your ambitions in check.


Go Gophers!!
 


I kind of think Michigan is for real which means the 'phars could win the pig axe and jug this year.
 




Ohio State is in Michigan's and PSU's heads the second they walk on the field.

I will take OSU in the east.
 



Iowa is the real deal.
Maybe.

IU was at home and was a terrible matchup. Iowa State was in the state of Iowa and an intense rivalry game. Then Kent State fought the good fight, but they're MAC.

I'm not convinced yet.
 



Iowa is Iowa, they play w really stout defense. Their weakness is that they rarely have an offense to keep them in the game if their opponent can score on their defense.

Their offense looks a bit more lively this year, but I'm not sold that it wasn't helped by it being early in the season and them playing opponents with average at best defenses.
 

Iowa State was easily right there, until whatever that turnover was I think in the 3rd qtr (memory foggy now from watching the highlight reel). That is what changed it.
 


I think it's more likely that zero B10 teams make it than two.
If Bama, Oregon, OU, and Notre Dame all go undefeated .... tough to see how you're not correct. It was right there on the field for OSU in that game, and that is that.

But I would like to think that there's no chance in hell ND goes undefeated.
 



If Bama, Oregon, OU, and Notre Dame all go undefeated .... tough to see how you're not correct. It was right there on the field for OSU in that game, and that is that.

But I would like to think that there's no chance in hell ND goes undefeated.
Notre Dame would surprise me, but with Georgia's win over Clemson, 2 out of the SEC seems reasonable. Throw in Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, Cincinnatti etc. and I think there's a chance the B10 gets left out.
 

If Bama, Oregon, OU, and Notre Dame all go undefeated .... tough to see how you're not correct. It was right there on the field for OSU in that game, and that is that.

But I would like to think that there's no chance in hell ND goes undefeated.
I want to believe the gophers fit into the CFP if we go rest of season undefeated. But this playoff picture could really dampen that.
 

I want to believe the gophers fit into the CFP if we go rest of season undefeated. But this playoff picture could really dampen that.
A 12-1 B10 champ with our only loss being week 1 to OSU gets us in easily IMO.
 

kind of sad that running up the score gets you more attention from the pundits. the article in the OP actually gave Michigan credit for showing "no mercy" to an outmatched opponent.

I know this isn't Fleck's style - but I suspect that if the Gophers went out there on Saturday and ran up 60 points or 700yds of offense on Bowling Green, then suddenly you would see a lot more talk about Gopher Football.
 

Notre Dame would surprise me, but with Georgia's win over Clemson, 2 out of the SEC seems reasonable. Throw in Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, Cincinnatti etc. and I think there's a chance the B10 gets left out.
Cinci barely beat the 9th place big ten team last week
 


I don't think Iowa is some juggernaut this year, but them and PSU certainly have the most impressive wins in the conference to this point. If one of them goes undefeated there's little to no chance of being left out of the CFP unless many of those wins are nail biters against the likes of Illinois, Nebraska, etc. Oregon's win against OSU was nice, but if OSU loses another game or two and isn't the best team in the B1G, it won't look as impressive...and whipping up on the rest of the PAC isn't all that helpful this year. Similarly, OU gonna have a tough time building a resume in the Big 12 with their only possible feather being a win over ISU who already lost to Iowa at home.
 

A 12-1 B10 champ with our only loss being week 1 to OSU gets us in easily IMO.
Agree that they'd choose to include the BT 12-1 over a second SEC team at 12-1 (Georgia).

They'd find some reason for it, but the backroom truth would be to increase TV viewer participation across the nation.
 


I thought you had to win your conference to get a top 4 bid. Or is it still a full beauty contest?
 

I thought you had to win your conference to get a top 4 bid. Or is it still a full beauty contest?
It's not a playoff, it's currently an invitational tournament. Top 4 ranked teams go.
 


If 2 make it from the Big Ten. Michigan won't be among them. It would be Iowa and Penn State. That is your only chance.

Michigan won't beat Ohio State or Penn State and will likely also lose to either Michigan State or Wisconsin. Heck, I think even Rutgers has a chance against them this weekend.
 


It’s almost impossible to predict the rest of the season based on the first three weeks although that is basic human behavior. I understand that. None of the Big Ten teams I’ve watched seem overwhelming. All have weaknesses - maybe some improve, some get worse; injuries factor in. Every week is a new season. We’ll know a little more by week 6 or 7.

My butt-based prediction is the Big Ten cannibalizes themselves, some “major upsets” occur, and the Big Ten may be lucky to get one team into the CFP this year.
 


I thought you had to win your conference to get a top 4 bid. Or is it still a full beauty contest?
The only conference champion bit of it is in the New Year's Six bowl games. That is, the highest ranked conference champion of the G5, gets an auto bid to a NY6 game, but not the CFP (unless they also happen to be ranked top 4, which hasn't yet happened).

Means that Notre Dame and BYU can't get that bid.
 




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