ESPN: Stats that defined 2016: Minnesota Gophers (29.3, 117.8, 9)

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PitinoFan said:
I see that you're doing your best to set Fleck up to fail, but I gave you my answer. At this point, I have no idea what to expect, and neither do you.


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That's a ridiculous statement. I expected TC to win eight in 2017. Why should it be different for Fleck? Last thing I want as a lifelong fan is for PJ to fail.

I think 8 in 2017 is easier for him because the offense will be much better under Fleck. 9-10 wins in 2018, and a chance to run the table in 2019...with a probable loss in the title game. Best case scenario..I'm RTB to L.A. after 2019 season for a bowl game.
 

josh087 said:
Stats that defined the 2016 Gophers:

173.6 - passing yards per game
4 - passing TDs in Big Ten play
1 - number of WRs with more than 20 catches
1/7 - combined touchdowns to interceptions in second half vs. PSU, Iowa, Neb, Wis

This team simply could not pass the football when they needed to. To me, that sums up the season.
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Doesn't bother me if it gets us 9 wins.
 

PMWinSTP said:
That's a ridiculous statement. I expected TC to win eight in 2017. Why should it be different for Fleck? Last thing I want as a lifelong fan is for PJ to fail.

I think 8 in 2017 is easier for him because the offense will be much better under Fleck. 9-10 wins in 2018, and a chance to run the table in 2019...with a probable loss in the title game. Best case scenario..I'm RTB to L.A. after 2019 season for a bowl game.
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If none of the ten are back, they'll be very thin and inexperienced in the secondary. Couple that with a new QB, new coaches, new offensive and defensive systems....could be looking at 6 wins. My expectations will be higher for 2018. Rarely do teams go through a coaching change without missing a beat.

Now, if some of the key guys get their suspensions overruled, I might bump it to 7-8, but there are still a lot of unknowns.




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PitinoFan said:
If none of the ten are back, they'll be very thin and inexperienced in the secondary. Couple that with a new QB, new coaches, new offensive and defensive systems....could be looking at 6 wins. My expectations will be higher for 2018. Rarely do teams go through a coaching change without missing a beat.

Now, if some of the key guys get their suspensions overruled, I might bump it to 7-8, but there are still a lot of unknowns.




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This is just not true. I ticked off a list of new HC's in the last several years who did not skip a beat in another post. I can do it again, or you can check out my posts. This is not a rebuild or turnaround, at all. Your premise does not hold.
 

die hard gopher said:
Doesn't bother me if it gets us 9 wins.
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It bothers me as we would be could have been 10,11,12 wins with an offense that could move the ball and convert third/fourth and short in big games. The Iowa and Wisconsin losses were particularly tough to stomach for me. The offense did enough in the PSU game but the defense let us down. In hindsight that was sort of a turning point for PSU.

The Leidner era is over, the Limey and Johnson era is over. Unfortunately the great Claeys/Sawvel defensive era is over. I don't know what to expect next year and nobody on here knows either. What I can make an educated guess about is that we'll be marginally better or maybe even a lot better on offense. We will probably take a step back on defense if we lose the secondary guys.

However, this isn't a typical coaching change. Normally a new coach comes in after the program has hit rock-bottom. Not the case here. Yes there are challenges in the secondary. Yes, we will be breaking in a new QB but Leidner had a horrid, awful, putrid senior season. I actually think we can't get much worse at the QB position (and I'm a Mitch lover...and I can still say he had a scary-bad senior campaign). We have some talented guys coming up in the offensive line ranks and I think we'll be ok there. Talent at RB, D line, linebacker.

Let's get it! PJ! Make me a believer.
 


PMWinSTP said:
This is just not true. I ticked off a list of new HC's in the last several years who did not skip a beat in another post. I can do it again, or you can check out my posts. This is not a rebuild or turnaround, at all. Your premise does not hold.
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Go ahead and do it again, for like the 10th time. All of your examples are programs that have more talent than the Gophers. You keep thinking Fleck is going to step in and significantly improve the offense in year 1 with a bunch of Freshman. It's going to take a few years to reload on that side of the ball. Outside of RB there is a severe lack of talent on offense that you keep choosing to ignore. Not to mention the issues at DB.
 

bottlebass said:
Since you refused to acknowledge what I was laying out for you here is a link. Strength of schedule this year 53rd, last year 55th.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other?date=2017-01-10

Like I said, the schedule really wasn't weaker this year. It just looked that way before the season. When people say "weak schedule" with attendance they mean we didn't play wisconsin, nebraska or a splashy East team at home. Again add in that we didn't play a splashy non conference game (since you insist on looking at the whole season) and of course attendance would be down due to the "weak schedule". That doesn't mean the opponents we played were weak over all. See the difference? Probably not since this is the 3rd time i've had to post this. And again, most TC backers aren't blaming the schedule first and foremost, it was the ticket price increases.

As far as your opinion goes, of course wins would decline eventually no matter who is coach. 9 wins was basically a historic season for the Gophers. The coach of that historic season got canned. History shows PJ will not likely improve on 9 wins.
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That's all very nice and everything, but this SoS ranking is a composite of all games. The problem with that is that the season is played game by game.
Let me ask it this way, if TC's 2016 team played the Gophers 2015 schedule and opponents, what would you say that their record would be? I'd say 6-6. The losses being TCU, Michigan, and Ohio State, along with the 2016 losses to teams we played and lost to in both years, that being Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.
Please tell me, if the schedules are equal as the composite SoS suggests, where the 2016 Gophers get 2 more wins vs these 2015 opponents? The 2016 Gophers may have lost to the 2015 Colorado St team. CSU was a slightly better team in 2015 than the team the Gophers narrowly beat this year at home this year. And, Northwestern was a far better team in 2015 than in 2016. It's conceivable the 2016 Gophers would've been 4-8 vs the 2015 opponents.
 

KillerGopherFan said:
That's all very nice and everything, but this SoS ranking is a composite of all games. The problem with that is that the season is played game by game.
Let me ask it this way, if TC's 2016 team played the Gophers 2015 schedule and opponents, what would you say that their record would be? I'd say 6-6. The losses being TCU, Michigan, and Ohio State, along with the 2016 losses to teams we played and lost to in both years, that being Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.
Please tell me, if the schedules are equal as the composite SoS suggests, where the 2016 Gophers get 2 more wins vs these 2015 opponents? The 2016 Gophers may have lost to the 2015 Colorado St team. CSU was a slightly better team in 2015 than the team the Gophers narrowly beat this year at home this year. And, Northwestern was a far better team in 2015 than in 2016. It's conceivable the 2016 Gophers would've been 4-8 vs the 2015 opponents.
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Fascinating. ...could you layout what the last 20 gopher teams would have done against this year's schedule? I'll admit I'm not really interested but it's just as relevant as what you did here. All that matters is the 2016 gophers were 9-4 against this year's schedule.
 

leadpipegopher said:
Fascinating. ...could you layout what the last 20 gopher teams would have done against this year's schedule? I'll admit I'm not really interested but it's just as relevant as what you did here. All that matters is the 2016 gophers were 9-4 against this year's schedule.
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Stop it. The idea is to reduce this year's 9 wins to meaningless while also setting the stage that anything above 4 wins next year is PJF's genius. Posts like yours don't help that mission.


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Yep, the record is all that matters. 8 wins must mean the Gopher Offense was dominant. Others have said it's the most wins by a Gopher team, so it must be the best Gopher team in the modern era. How you look doing it, doesn't matter. Squeak by Oregon St and Rutgers, no problem. A win is a win.
So Leadpipe, I assume you've never felt a team was lucky to have a winning record? There's no questioning the quality of a record?
I thought Iowa was lucky to be 12-0 in 2015. A lot of other Gopher fans probably did too, and attributed it to the easier schedule. I thought they were more of a 9-3 type team, but for some misfortune by their opponents. But since they were 12-0, it must have been one of the greatest teams in Iowa Football history. Until they played Stanford in the Rose Bowl and were exposed.
 

The Gophers won 9 games last year and are returning the bulk of their 2 deeps for this season. Areas that will be a concern early are the QB and Secondary. Outside of those two spots we should be pretty solid and can lean on the running game on offense and the play of our DL and LB, should be able to help the secondary.
On top of that we have a new coaching staff that has done wonders with MAC level talent. We may take a slight step back, but going below 7 wins in the regular season, would be a major disappointment with the amount of returners we have.
Look at the schedule, it sets up rather nicely as the early part of the schedule doesn't appear to be too tough. The game at OSU will be a great early test, but we also get a tune up game before that one, unlike last season. The back half is tougher, but those first 5 games will give them time to develop the QB and find who the players are in the secondary.
 

KillerGopherFan said:
That's all very nice and everything, but this SoS ranking is a composite of all games. The problem with that is that the season is played game by game.
Let me ask it this way, if TC's 2016 team played the Gophers 2015 schedule and opponents, what would you say that their record would be? I'd say 6-6. The losses being TCU, Michigan, and Ohio State, along with the 2016 losses to teams we played and lost to in both years, that being Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.
Please tell me, if the schedules are equal as the composite SoS suggests, where the 2016 Gophers get 2 more wins vs these 2015 opponents? The 2016 Gophers may have lost to the 2015 Colorado St team. CSU was a slightly better team in 2015 than the team the Gophers narrowly beat this year at home this year. And, Northwestern was a far better team in 2015 than in 2016. It's conceivable the 2016 Gophers would've been 4-8 vs the 2015 opponents.
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You are missing the point entirely. The conversation was about attendance and the weak schedule.
 

bottlebass said:
You are missing the point entirely. The conversation was about attendance and the weak schedule.
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You should probably check the title of the thread and the ESPN article that kicked off the discussion.
It's not about attendance. That was a side point. Even your first post on this thread was about performance.
This thread is about Performance.
 



KillerGopherFan said:
You should probably check the title of the thread and the ESPN article that kicked off the discussion.
It's not about attendance. That was a side point. Even your first post on this thread was about performance.
This thread is about Performance.
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You missed the other 7 posts then. It's ok.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Go ahead and do it again, for like the 10th time. All of your examples are programs that have more talent than the Gophers. You keep thinking Fleck is going to step in and significantly improve the offense in year 1 with a bunch of Freshman. It's going to take a few years to reload on that side of the ball. Outside of RB there is a severe lack of talent on offense that you keep choosing to ignore. Not to mention the issues at DB.
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It's not a rebuild or turnaround no matter how much you want it to be. Expectations are relative to talent and recent performance in every example I gave.

Sumlin matched the previous year win total his first year in Houston...check out their recruiting classes when he was there. In his first year at A&M he took them into a tougher conference in 2012 and actually improved by 5 wins over his predecessor.

Chryst did the same at Pitt and again at Wisc as a new coach with staff. Narduzzi's first year at Pitt saw a 2 win improvement over Chryst.
 

PMWinSTP said:
It's not a rebuild or turnaround no matter how much you want it to be. Expectations are relative to talent and recent performance in every example I gave.

Sumlin matched the previous year win total his first year in Houston...check out their recruiting classes when he was there. In his first year at A&M he took them into a tougher conference in 2012 and actually improved by 5 wins over his predecessor.

Chryst did the same at Pitt and again at Wisc as a new coach with staff. Narduzzi's first year at Pitt saw a 2 win improvement over Chryst.
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I think the comparison to Pitt is fair, but not to Wisconsin. Houston plays in a weaker conference, and Sumlin's best year was his first at A&M when he inherited a ton of offensive talent. Fleck won't have that luxury. I've never said it's a complete rebuild here, but they are rebuilding on offense. Currently there's not a lot of talent at QB, WR, and the OL.

I think the best B1G coach comparison to Fleck is Franklin. Penn St. won 8 and 7 games before Franklin arrived and that was with the sanctions. He took over a team that had some talent, but had depleted depth due to the previous scholarship reductions. He took a small step back and went 6-6, 7-5, then 11-2 in the regular season. This is while he recruited at a high level and built up the talent and depth on the team. Now they're loaded and should be B1G favorites again next year.

That's basically where my year by year expectations are for Fleck. With most if not all of the 10 suspended players likely being gone, that's a big hit on the young depth on this team. Not something you recover from in one recruiting class. They still need to try and redshirt as many as they can next year.
 

We aren't only rebuilding our offense we are rebuilding the defense too... the suspended/expelled players plus losing travis and myrick plus the Ekpe's on the dline.
 

bottlebass said:
We aren't only rebuilding our offense we are rebuilding the defense too... the suspended/expelled players plus losing travis and myrick plus the Ekpe's on the dline.
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Other than when we outright sucked and it felt like most positions were poor.... I can't recall having this many question marks hovering over positions in my mind for quite some time.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I think the comparison to Pitt is fair, but not to Wisconsin. Houston plays in a weaker conference, and Sumlin's best year was his first at A&M when he inherited a ton of offensive talent. Fleck won't have that luxury. I've never said it's a complete rebuild here, but they are rebuilding on offense. Currently there's not a lot of talent at QB, WR, and the OL.

I think the best B1G coach comparison to Fleck is Franklin. Penn St. won 8 and 7 games before Franklin arrived and that was with the sanctions. He took over a team that had some talent, but had depleted depth due to the previous scholarship reductions. He took a small step back and went 6-6, 7-5, then 11-2 in the regular season. This is while he recruited at a high level and built up the talent and depth on the team. Now they're loaded and should be B1G favorites again next year.

That's basically where my year by year expectations are for Fleck. With most if not all of the 10 suspended players likely being gone, that's a big hit on the young depth on this team. Not something you recover from in one recruiting class. They still need to try and redshirt as many as they can next year.
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Wisconsin is absolutely a good comparison. Chryst maintained the win expectation even with a two year pit stop by Anderson, who made some changes and whose recruits Chryst inherited.

Weaker conference is a weak argument. The comparison is of new HC and whether he maintains wins...the conference does not matter. How many wins the year before under the previous coach matters. At Houston, Sumlin went in, maintained and then had them consistently win at a higher level. Same with A&M.

Boise State, Florida, Washington, Miami, BYU, Virginia Tech...
 

PMWinSTP said:
Wisconsin is absolutely a good comparison. Chryst maintained the win expectation even with a two year pit stop by Anderson, who made some changes and whose recruits Chryst inherited.

Weaker conference is a weak argument. The comparison is of new HC and whether he maintains wins...the conference does not matter. How many wins the year before under the previous coach matters. At Houston, Sumlin went in, maintained and then had them consistently win at a higher level. Same with A&M.

Boise State, Florida, Washington, Miami, BYU, Virginia Tech...
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Wisconsin is comparable to the Gophers? The same team that has beaten us 13 straight times and played for the B1G championship 5 of the last 7 years. Please.

Once again you've listed all more successful programs than the Gophers. It's not even close.
 

Here is the last 3 years on coaching hires and how they fared.

2016
Dino Babers, Syracuse 4-8 to 4-8
Matt Campbell, Iowa State 3-9 to 3-9
Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech 7-6 to 10-4
Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia 4-8 to 2-10
Mark Richt, Miami 8-5 to 9-4
Kirby Smart, Georgia 10-3 to 8-5
Chris Ash, Rutgers 4-8 to 2-10
Tracy Claeys, Minnesota 6-7 to 9-4
Barry Odom, Missouri 5-7 to 4-8
DJ Durkin, Maryland 3-9 to 6-7
Clay Helton, USC 8-6 to 10-3
Will Muschamp, South Carolina 3-9 to 6-7
Kalani Sitake, BYU 9-4 to 9-4
Lovie Smith, Illinois 5-7 to 3-9
Willie Fritz, Tulane 3-9 to 4-8
Scott Frost, UCF 0-12 to 6-7
Mike Viator, Louisiana-Monroe 2-11 to 4-8
Everett Withers, Texas State 3-9 to 2-10
Jay Hopson, Southern Miss 9-5 to 7-6
Mike Norvell, Memphis 9-4 to 8-5
Jason Candle, Toledo 10-2 to 9-4
Mike Neu, Ball State 3-9 to 4-8
Frank Wilson, UTSA 3-9 to 6-7
Seth Littrell, North Texas 1-11 to 5-8
Nick Rolovich, Hawaii 3-10 to 7-7
Tyson Summers, Georgia Southern 9-4 to 5-7
Mike Jinks, Bowling Green 10-4 to 4-8
Scottie Montgomery, East Carolina 5-7 to 3-9

2015
Jim Harbaugh, Michigan 5-7 to 10-3
Chad Morris, SMU 1-11 to 2-10
Pat Narduzzi, Pitt 6-7 to 8-5
Tom Herman, Houston 8-5 to 13-1
Gary Andersen, Oregon State 5-7 to 2-10
Paul Chryst, Wisconsin 11-3 to 10-3
Philip Montgomery, Tulsa 2-10 to 6-7
Jim McElwain, Florida 7-5 to 10-4
Mike Bobo, Colorado State 10-3 to 7-6
Mike Riley, Nebraska 9-4 to 6-7
Dave Beaty, Kansas 3-9 to 0-12
Neal Brown, Troy 3-9 to 4-8
Lance Leipold, Buffalo 5-6 to 5-7
Tony Sanchez, UNLV 2-11 to 3-9

2014
Charlie Strong, Texas 8-5 to 6-7
Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern to 7-4 to 9-3
Mark Whipple, UMass 1-11 to 3-9
Steve Sarkisian, USC 10-4 to 9-4
James Franklin, Penn State 7-5 to 7-6
Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan 2-10 to 2-10
Chuck Martin, Miami (Ohio) 0-12 to 2-10
Bill Clark, UAB 2-10 to 6-6
Bobby Petrino, Louisville 12-1 to 9-4
Chris Petersen, Washington 9-4 to 8-6
Jeff Monken, Army 3-9 to 4-8
Charlie Partridge, Florida Atlantic 6-6 to 3-9
Derek Mason, Vanderbilt 9-4 to 3-9
Craig Bohl, Wyoming 5-7 to 4-8
Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky 8-4 to 8-5
Bryan Harsin, Boise State 8-5 to 12-2
Bob Diaco, Uconn 3-9 to 2-10
Blake Anderson, Arkansas State 8-5 to 7-6
Dino Babers, Bowling Green 10-4 to 8-6
Dave Clawson, Wake Forest 4-8 to 3-9

(Hopefully all the numbers are correct.)
 

bottlebass said:
We aren't only rebuilding our offense we are rebuilding the defense too... the suspended/expelled players plus losing travis and myrick plus the Ekpe's on the dline.
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Yes, this coach will have to deal with graduation. ..like every other coach.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Wisconsin is comparable to the Gophers? The same team that has beaten us 13 straight times and played for the B1G championship 5 of the last 7 years. Please.

Once again you've listed all more successful programs than the Gophers. It's not even close.
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I'm starting to think you're incapable of comprehending his argument.
 

leadpipegopher said:
I'm starting to think you're incapable of comprehending his argument.
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You're right, I'm incapable of comprehending an argument that compares much more highly successful football programs with more talent to the Gophers.
 





GopherWeatherGuy said:
Wisconsin is comparable to the Gophers? The same team that has beaten us 13 straight times and played for the B1G championship 5 of the last 7 years. Please.

Once again you've listed all more successful programs than the Gophers. It's not even close.
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Wow, you really are not getting this....
 

bottlebass said:
I hope we don't regret firing Claeys. Those are some pretty awesome numbers in support of him.
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Worst part of losing Claeys was losing Sawvel. He's always been the best part of our D and it was a mistake to let him walk.....
 

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