End of Division I Sports as We Know It

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Dean S said:
There are already reports that the vaccine will not convey permanent immunity. 12 months might be its max effectiveness. Plus, with the rapid evolution into new strains, they may or may not be effective. And, I know there is a doc on this board who is going to say I am wrong, but this is from the developers of the vaccines.
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Well I guess Dean you will be crawling into a hole for the rest of your life
 

Bordergopher said:
Old fans and those with compromised immune systems should stay away. The rest could attend with little concern (assuming governmental rules allow them to). Statistics loudly support this fact as very few healthy young people end up with serious cases. At some point, our plan for attacking this virus has to shift to fall in line with this reality. I’m already seeing that being discussed. As the typical Williams Arena crowd is pretty old, that would certainly change the scene there, and I would think ticket prices will have to be lowered greatly to put butts in the seats.
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Agree. There are however going to be some higher risk players - obese, DM, sickle cell trait, cancer survivors, etc that will need to probably take the season off OR there has to be a very aggressive testing regime prior to contests or some combination. A death would be catastrophic...not only for that person’s family but for the sport.

That said weas a society are going to have accept some risk to live life. Some more than others. We have to be smart about not endangering the vulnerable . And you know, many of those will be more than willing to take some risks anyway.
 

Dean S said:
There are already reports that the vaccine will not convey permanent immunity. 12 months might be its max effectiveness. Plus, with the rapid evolution into new strains, they may or may not be effective. And, I know there is a doc on this board who is going to say I am wrong, but this is from the developers of the vaccines.
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The overwhelming amount of epidemiologists reports thus far have been rather promising on a vaccine. This novel coronavirus is a slow mutating virus - about 2 to 4 times slower than the flu. That fact, of itself, points to multiple years. Another thing, mutations do not equal a bad thing.

Some good articles:
COVID-19 Will Mutate — What That Means for a Vaccine
The coronavirus mutates more slowly than the flu — which means a vaccine will likely be effective long-term
Yes, the new coronavirus is mutating—but that’s not a bad thing
 

kisarazu said:
The overwhelming amount of epidemiologists reports thus far have been rather promising on a vaccine. This novel coronavirus is a slow mutating virus - about 2 to 4 times slower than the flu. That fact, of itself, points to multiple years. Another thing, mutations do not equal a bad thing.

Some good articles:
COVID-19 Will Mutate — What That Means for a Vaccine
The coronavirus mutates more slowly than the flu — which means a vaccine will likely be effective long-term
Yes, the new coronavirus is mutating—but that’s not a bad thing
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Thank you for that post. Earlier, a number of epidemiologists suggested otherwise.
 

RememberMurray said:
If there is no vaccine by autumn, would fans show up to sit in stadiums to watch games in 2020? Not many would, in my opinion.
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If you’ve had it and recovered, you could be good to go. Depends how long immunity lasts.
 


Dean S said:
Thank you for that post. Earlier, a number of epidemiologists suggested otherwise.
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On another potential glass half full scenario this epidemiologist has been making some waves and is favor of the Swedish model. Who knows if he's right or wrong but it is potentially exciting. Here is one of his research articles he's doing but he's got a lot of commentary if you look him up.

www.medrxiv.org

The first three months of the COVID-19 epidemic: Epidemiological evidence for two separate strains of SARS-CoV-2 viruses spreading and implications for prevention strategies

About one month after the COVID-19 epidemic peaked in Mainland China and SARS-CoV-2 migrated to Europe and then the U.S., the epidemiological data begin to provide important insights into the risks associated with the disease and the effectiveness of intervention strategies such as travel...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
 

NotAFanOfBecky said:
On another potential glass half full scenario this epidemiologist has been making some waves and is favor of the Swedish model. Who knows if he's right or wrong but it is potentially exciting. Here is one of his research articles he's doing but he's got a lot of commentary if you look him up.

www.medrxiv.org

The first three months of the COVID-19 epidemic: Epidemiological evidence for two separate strains of SARS-CoV-2 viruses spreading and implications for prevention strategies

About one month after the COVID-19 epidemic peaked in Mainland China and SARS-CoV-2 migrated to Europe and then the U.S., the epidemiological data begin to provide important insights into the risks associated with the disease and the effectiveness of intervention strategies such as travel...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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I have read that there are potential 13 epitopes of MHC-I and 3 potential MHC-II sites are antigenic against SARS-CoV-2 making it possible to create an multi-epitope peptide vaccine with a potential high atomic contact energy. This from the Journal of Medical Virology published on 27 Feb. I'll have to go back and copy a link. May not be tonight. I am just taking a break from other readings on SARS vaccines. I didn't make a complete note on the source as I didn't need it for my personal notes.
 

Dean S said:
There are already reports that the vaccine will not convey permanent immunity. 12 months might be its max effectiveness. Plus, with the rapid evolution into new strains, they may or may not be effective. And, I know there is a doc on this board who is going to say I am wrong, but this is from the developers of the vaccines.
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That’s true if it behaves like the flu.
But as a new strain is developed it may be more or less deadly than before (like the flu).
They’ll attempt to create vaccines every year (like the flu).
Some years they be better at predicting and some years they’ll be worse leading towards varying degrees of the effectiveness of the vaccine from year to year (like the flu).
 

Granted that this site is about football and sports but do you really think there's discussion about whether we should play the games with fans or without fans without taking into consideration that schools will never even think about sports unless they can put students back in the classroom.
 



Desertbobcat said:
Granted that this site is about football and sports but do you really think there's discussion about whether we should play the games with fans or without fans without taking into consideration that schools will never even think about sports unless they can put students back in the classroom.
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People here just want football to happen no matter what. All they care about is football.

They'll be sad to learn when there is no football this year.
 



This pandemic has exposed many very serious fault lines in our society, our politics, corporations, the education system, health care, sports at all levels, the pharmaceutical industry etc.
Some very significant adjustments are going to have to be made to all of them before life comes back to a new normal.
Those of you who think sports, particularly college sports, exists in a vacuum are in for some unpleasant surprises.
 



Everyone is jumping to projections about whether there will be a football season, but what if schools still aren’t ready to be opened for students to return to campuses in the fall? That’s a very real possibility to consider, at least in some locations, and if there are no students and no classes, there are no student-athletes.

Edit: I see Desertbobcat made the same point above.
 
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WindyCityGopher said:
Everyone is jumping to projections about whether there will be a football season, but what if schools still aren’t ready to be opened for students to return to campuses in the fall? That’s a very real possibility to consider, at least in some locations, and if there are no students and no classes, there are no student-athletes.

Edit: I see Desertbobcat made the same point above.
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Think pretty much everyone understands that if we aren't at a point where students can return to the Universities we are extremely unlikely to have any sort of football.

The reality is that this thread and others is full of people who seem sure that they know what is going to happen when in reality none of us has any clue what things are going to look like in a month, 2 months, 3 months from now.

At one point we were going to see millions of deaths, then hundreds of thousands, now maybe somewhere in the area of 60K, the bottom line is the situation in the country is evolving and changing so quickly that by the time August rolls around we will almost certainly be in a completely different place then we are right now. Whether that is better or worse remains to be seen.
 


Will be interesting to see how it pans out and if 10 years down the road we look back at the people who thought we wouldn't spend the rest of out lives wearing masks and basically not gathering in large groups for any occasion as quaint. Like the last caveman refusing to use fire because meat is better raw anyway. Or we giggle that we thought that this was such a big deal when it ends up killing about the same magnitude of people over an extended period of time that viral diseases do every year and we wonder how we got induced into such a panic. Or somewhere in between.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Think pretty much everyone understands that if we aren't at a point where students can return to the Universities we are extremely unlikely to have any sort of football.
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Students are guaranteed to return.

The question is simply if fall semester will be virtual or not

That decision has nothing to do with playing football in an empty stadium.
 

Gopherguy0723 said:
The Univeristy of Minnesota is going to lose at least $10 million, if there's some kind of football season. I don't believe there will be a football season. Regardless, a lot of schools won't be able to recover from this. The 300+ DI basketball schools will be shrink tremendously.

The pay of coaches and the sizes of coaching staffs will shrink. The amount of scholarships per sport might drop. The arms race for facilities will come screeching to a stop. I'm sure the Gophers' new facilities are in huge trouble. They're going to lose a lot of money and owe a lot. That's a bad situation.

There's no questiom the gravy train is over and hard times are ahead. The only question is whether college sports are looking at a hard or catastrophic time ahead.
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You must like to spread 'doom-and-gloom' and try to generate the feeling in others that a situation is very bad and without hope. Go right ahead and think what you want. Maybe being a D1 sports fan is not for you. Living these days is all about adversity...looks like you need to toughen-up.

Have a great day...try spreading positive info instead of dramatizing the situation that we are in today.
 

LakerFan said:
Will be interesting to see how it pans out and if 10 years down the road we look back at the people who thought we wouldn't spend the rest of out lives wearing masks and basically not gathering in large groups for any occasion as quaint. Like the last caveman refusing to use fire because meat is better raw anyway. Or we giggle that we thought that this was such a big deal when it ends up killing about the same magnitude of people over an extended period of time that viral diseases do every year and we wonder how we got induced into such a panic. Or somewhere in between.
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At least as far as those who study it, it has been pretty much a given that SOMETIME some pandemic would occur similar to the Spanish Flu or something like that, that would have a wide ranging impact. That hasn't been a mystery.

The question was "when" but like a lot of things that are likely to happen I don't think anyone had anything that really could predict it.

It's also not a given that it should remain a long term situation. Even highly contagious diseases seem to ebb and flow and why is still studied today...
 

Other countries - Japan and Taiwan with baseball - are already on their way back to playing their seasons. What makes people think that two of the biggest (by fan following and money) and most well-resourced sports in the entire world - NFL and CFB - won't find a way to make their seasons happen (especially with 4-5 months left to plan)?
 

Mark Coyle protege':

"This was a difficult decision, but one made with the long-term interests of UC Athletics at the forefront," Cincinnati athletic director John Cunningham said in a statement. "During this time of profound challenges and widespread uncertainty, I have engaged in a comprehensive and thorough review of UC's sport offerings and long-term budget implications of supporting the number of student-athletes currently at UC. Based on this review, and in consultation with President [Neville] Pinto and other University leaders, UC Athletics will no longer sponsor a men's soccer program."
 

Tredwell said:
Mark Coyle protege':

"This was a difficult decision, but one made with the long-term interests of UC Athletics at the forefront," Cincinnati athletic director John Cunningham said in a statement. "During this time of profound challenges and widespread uncertainty, I have engaged in a comprehensive and thorough review of UC's sport offerings and long-term budget implications of supporting the number of student-athletes currently at UC. Based on this review, and in consultation with President [Neville] Pinto and other University leaders, UC Athletics will no longer sponsor a men's soccer program."
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Cop out excuse to cut a program that I'm sure they've been longing to axe. More money to spend on football and men's basketball.

Trust as objective fact, that the money they "save" on men's soccer, will 100% be spent elsewhere in the athletic dept. :rolleyes:
 

MplsGopher said:
Students are guaranteed to return.

The question is simply if fall semester will be virtual or not

That decision has nothing to do with playing football in an empty stadium.
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What I originally wrote, and what MNVCGUY was responding to, was having students returning physically to campuses, not virtually, so the question has everything to do with playing football, empty stadium or no. Sure, if students, faculty and staff are back on campus this fall there will most likely be sports again, but if they're not because someone deemed it's not safe, there's zero justification for having athletes practicing and playing while every other student is remote.
 

WindyCityGopher said:
if they're not because someone deemed it's not safe, there's zero justification for having athletes practicing and playing while every other student is remote.
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Not correct, in my opinion.

For a small set of people, in a controlled environment with daily testing, you certainly can justify it.
 

MplsGopher said:
Cop out excuse to cut a program that I'm sure they've been longing to axe. More money to spend on football and men's basketball.
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Yes, it's pretty obvious that Cunningham has had it out for the men's soccer program at UC for a long time. He's just been waiting for a global health pandemic for cover. Oh wait, he's only been there for four months.

MplsGopher said:
Trust as objective fact, that the money they "save" on men's soccer, will 100% be spent elsewhere in the athletic dept. :rolleyes:
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The money "saved" on men's soccer at UC won't be spent on anything, it will be used to reduce the anticipated budget shortfall for next year and the foreseeable future. This story will be repeated across the country as athletic departments reduce budgets in the face of reduced revenue this academic year, next year and, most likely, beyond. There will be all manner of cost cutting measures, including the elimination of sports at some schools.
 

2nd Degree Gopher said:
he's only been there for four months.
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Of course, therefore any decision he annouces must have been conjured up completely by him, with zero input from anyone else with any historical ties to UC.


2nd Degree Gopher said:
The money "saved" on men's soccer at UC won't be spent on anything, it will be used to reduce the anticipated budget shortfall for next year and the foreseeable future.
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Previous football budget, $20M
Previous men's bball budget, $10M
Previous men's soccer budget, $2M

New football budget $20.9M
New men's bball budget, $10.9M

SEE!! We're saving money!! We're reducing the budget shortfall!
 

MplsGopher said:
Not correct, in my opinion.

For a small set of people, in a controlled environment with daily testing, you certainly can justify it.
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You keep throwing around daily testing like that is a real thing or will be available in the near future. That's a huge "IF" to be available accurately, affordable & timely to the general public much less student athletes.
 

Ope3 said:
You keep throwing around daily testing like that is a real thing or will be available in the near future. That's a huge "IF" to be available accurately, affordable & timely to the general public much less student athletes.
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Desktop testers are already approved. Test takes 13mins. School can buy one for each athlete and staff. Daily morning tests. These won’t be expensive machines either.
 

MplsGopher said:
Of course, therefore any decision he annouces must have been conjured up completely by him, with zero input from anyone else with any historical ties to UC.



Previous football budget, $20M
Previous men's bball budget, $10M
Previous men's soccer budget, $2M

New football budget $20.9M
New men's bball budget, $10.9M

SEE!! We're saving money!! We're reducing the budget shortfall!
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Your lack of insight is astounding, but at least you are consistent—take a position, feign outrage, create a bogeyman, attribute imaginary ill intent to said bogeyman, make up imaginary “facts” to support your position, ignore actual facts which are inconsistent with your position, resort to hyperbole when challenged. It’s almost like arguing with a five-year old, except that a five-year old would at least attempt to be intellectually honest.
 

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