Early Betting Lines

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RememberMurray said:
I'm not convinced Jerry's motivation level will have a huge impact on the final score in this game. Jerry won't be throwing any blocks or making any tackles. He can be as jacked up as he wants.

The last time we played this team — 2018 — we beat 'em by exactly 38 points. And, call me a homer, but I think there's a very good chance that the 2022 Gophers will be a better team than that 2018 team was.

If I was in Vegas, and my job was setting an early spread, I'd look very closely at the actual score the last time the two teams met. I'd look at both team's recent non-conference record, and the scores in those games.

If you go by Fleck's actual history in non-cons, this spread seems about right to me.
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It’s hilarious how many people here know better than the people who set point spreads for a living.
 

RememberMurray said:
I'm not convinced Jerry's motivation level will have a huge impact on the final score in this game. Jerry won't be throwing any blocks or making any tackles. He can be as jacked up as he wants.

The last time we played this team — 2018 — we beat 'em by exactly 38 points. And, call me a homer, but I think there's a very good chance that the 2022 Gophers will be a better team than that 2018 team was.

If I was in Vegas, and my job was setting an early spread, I'd look very closely at the actual score the last time the two teams met. I'd look at both team's recent non-conference record, and the scores in those games.

If you go by Fleck's actual history in non-cons, this spread seems about right to me.
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Are you going to bet the farm?
 


Pompous Elitist said:
OK, same question. Are you willing to divulge your bet amount?
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$0, but I’m not claiming it’s an easy bet either way. I’m simply disputing the people who think it’s crazy that we are a 38 point favorite
 

Gophers1992 said:
$0, but I’m not claiming it’s an easy bet either way. I’m simply disputing the people who think it’s crazy that we are a 38 point favorite
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Do you think that is a legitimate line that will hold up by game day? I would bet more on that line shrinking than the Gophers covering the spread.

I hope they cover that line and they are capable of that, but my head says no. Fleck has had every opportunity to bury teams in the past and decides to circle the wagons instead. Like somebody mentioned probably will require some combination of turnover/pick six, special teams splash play. Look, I hate getting put in a position of hoping my favorite team doesn’t blow them out though so won’t argue this too hard (too late?)…We’ll see in about a month.
 


I think 38 is pretty good. I wouldn’t be rushing to bet either side.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Do you think that is a legitimate line that will hold up by game day? I would bet more on that line shrinking than the Gophers covering the spread.

I hope they cover that line and they are capable of that, but my head says no. Fleck has had every opportunity to bury teams in the past and decides to circle the wagons instead. Like somebody mentioned probably will require some combination of turnover/pick six, special teams splash play. Look, I hate getting put in a position of hoping my favorite team doesn’t blow them out though so won’t argue this too hard (too late?)…We’ll see in about a month.
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I'd be surprised if it moved below 35, but I won't pretend to be a betting expert. I guess my overall point with this is there's a reason the people who set these lines for a living picked 38. No they're not perfect, but they are more objective and knowledgeable than any of us.
 

RememberMurray said:
I'm not convinced Jerry's motivation level will have a huge impact on the final score in this game. Jerry won't be throwing any blocks or making any tackles. He can be as jacked up as he wants.

The last time we played this team — 2018 — we beat 'em by exactly 38 points. And, call me a homer, but I think there's a very good chance that the 2022 Gophers will be a better team than that 2018 team was.

If I was in Vegas, and my job was setting an early spread, I'd look very closely at the actual score the last time the two teams met. I'd look at both team's recent non-conference record, and the scores in those games.

If you go by Fleck's actual history in non-cons, this spread seems about right to me.
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What will the 2022 NM St team look like relative to the 2018 team?

It can be hard to score a lot of points when you're running the ball most of the time and "playing it safe" with the playbook so as to not put a bunch of stuff on film for the bigger games.
 

Gophers1992 said:
I'd be surprised if it moved below 35, but I won't pretend to be a betting expert. I guess my overall point with this is there's a reason the people who set these lines for a living picked 38. No they're not perfect, but they are more objective and knowledgeable than any of us.
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line makers do not try to predict the outcome of a game, they try to split the betting field.

I was friends with a line maker while I lived/worked in Las Vegas for a year prior to the pandemic.

He would tell me about lines they had to set that were far from how they thought the game would play out. This was 2019 and he kept telling me to fade the Browns.
 




FWIW - 5 of the last 6 non-conference games were decided by margins of 7 points or less - making them 'close' games in my book. the Gophers were 4-1 in those close games.

and three of those close non-conf games were in 2019 with Kirk C as the OC. the largest margin of victory in a non-conf game during that stretch came over Colorado with the defense dominating the game.

ALSO - the Gophers will be playing their first game with a revamped D-Line and an O-Line featuring 4 new starters.

Hey, maybe the Gophs come out like gangbusters with all phases of the game clicking.
Or, maybe they look like a team that is breaking in a lot of new starters on both lines.

Don't get me wrong. on paper, this is a game the Gophs should win handily. But I will not be shocked if it is much closer than the point spread indicates.
 

Replacement Gopher said:
line makers do not try to predict the outcome of a game, they try to split the betting field.

I was friends with a line maker while I lived/worked in Las Vegas for a year prior to the pandemic.

He would tell me about lines they had to set that were far from how they thought the game would play out. This was 2019 and he kept telling me to fade the Browns.
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Yeah I get that, but if they set the line at 70 for example that would not split the betting field, so their lines have at least some approximation of an expected outcome.
 

Gophers_4life said:
What will the 2022 NM St team look like relative to the 2018 team?

It can be hard to score a lot of points when you're running the ball most of the time and "playing it safe" with the playbook so as to not put a bunch of stuff on film for the bigger games.
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Yup. Taking the over/under isn't about whether the Gophs are good enough to wind by +38 (they are if the new defense jells quickly), it's whether they will win by +38.
 
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Panthadad2 said:
Yup. Taking the over/under isn't about whether the Gophs are good enough to wind by +38 (they are if the new defense jells quickly), it's whether they will win by +38.
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Just an FYI you are using the term over/under when I think you mean to refer to covering the point spread. O/U is a separate bet based on total points scored in the game.
 


We will not cover 38. Hope we do but we have too much unanswered questions and not sure Fleck will pile it on Kill.
 

Gophers1992 said:
Yeah I get that, but if they set the line at 70 for example that would not split the betting field, so their lines have at least some approximation of an expected outcome.
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Fan expected outcome. Not a lot of New Mexico State rubes apparently.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Fleck has had every opportunity to bury teams in the past and decides to circle the wagons instead.
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Really? Gophers' average score in non-con games under Fleck: 30-14, Minnesota. That doesn't seem like blatant wagon-circling to me.

We played NMSU in 2018, and beat them 48-10. I sure don't see that outcome as an example of wagon circling.
 
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Two two cents' thoughts.
1) Much bulletin board material here.
2) Fleck will never pile it on.
 

RememberMurray said:
Really? Gophers' average score in non-con games under Fleck: 30-14, Minnesota. That doesn't seem like blatant wagon-circling to me.

We played NMSU in 2018, and beat them 48-10. I sure don't see that outcome as an example of wagon circling.
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Thirty points is strictly average scoring output. Yes, MN usually goes into a shell in the second half. Like I said before MN is certainly capable of more but Fleck is very conservative. That’s fine, but it makes reaching the 38 point margin threshold precarious at best as the game log demonstrates. Don’t get your undies bunched up over this. It’s not a commentary on how good the team is, just coaching choices, and math/time/odds.
 

Since jumping to D1 (southern illinois)
Jerry Kill +38 is 184-4

Since becoming a D1 head coach PJ Fleck -38 is 6-102-2


So the confluence of those would have to be this game
 

Gophers1992 said:
Yeah I get that, but if they set the line at 70 for example that would not split the betting field, so their lines have at least some approximation of an expected outcome.
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Boys and their games



SBD: What exactly do you mean it’s partially untrue that bookmakers don’t care who wins or loses?

AB: In many ways, its analogous to walking up to a craps table. At the table, odds are posted clearly on the felt, including all the large house advantage bets like the field, or snake eyes, or boxcars.

However, the only bet the house has no advantage on – and pays out true odds for – is when you play the odds behind the pass line. These odds aren’t advertised anywhere; you have to just know to do it. The same is true of betting on sports.

See, let me explain how it works. There are a few guys who have a formula, and they’re the linesmakers. They use statistics to predict what the actual spread in the game will likely be. Let’s say it’s the favorite laying, minus -7.

So, the linesmaker will send this number to the bookmaker for them to use as a point spread. Now, what the house and bookmakers try to do is post that point spread, hoping that it balances the action so they can take out their 10% vig. As such, no matter who wins, they collect 10%.

As I mentioned earlier, a handful of known professional handicappers and bettors who have a somewhat different formula (and some handicapping expertise, apart from just the raw linesmaker data), will try to find value in that point spread and bet accordingly.

Anyway, the pros put down some “early” or “smart” money. Afterward, the house adjusts that number accordingly. Between that time and the game, the media will give their opinion. This then influences the public and the line—like a barometer moves.

SBD: So you think it’s the professional bettors – and their early money – that really moves the needle on the line and the odds initially, but then it’s the public that moves it?

AB: Yes, exactly. The day of the game is when most of the public places their bets. This is when you really see the line move, based on who the public and fans like.

Then, the pros will come in again with what’s called “smart” or “late” money. Again, they will normally take any spread which seems “off” to them or any handicapping angle they like. Sometimes, they’ll just play against the public.

In fact, most every competent professional usually takes the underdog, while the public typically bets the favorite. That’s why they’re the favorite. And just like the media, 90% of the public is wrong 90% of the time. The only people who win are the house and a handful of pros.

Now, the biggest difference is that the bookmakers no longer just try to balance the action. They try to beat the public. This is done by posting a point spread which is skewed against the player.

SBD: How does this work in practice?

AB: Say if you look at [the line] objectively, it’s really a -7 and the house knows it. Of course, most of the time, the house does indeed know what the real line is.

Say the favorite is a popular team that the media and public will be highly likely bet on. Bookmakers may open the line at -10.

They do this because the public doesn’t accurately factor into the point spread. Then, of course, there’s the media, which fuels the public’s foolishness. That line may even go up from -10 to -13. The role of the media can’t be understated in fueling the way the public bets; they’ve got an outsized impact.

All the while, the more the line goes in one direction, the more the pros will invest and bet on the other side.
 

Some guy said:
Since jumping to D1 (southern illinois)
Jerry Kill +38 is 184-4

Since becoming a D1 head coach PJ Fleck -38 is 6-102-2


So the confluence of those would have to be this game
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Interesting stat!


At the end of the day, if the book gets a huge number of people to lay bets and if they get roughly 50-50 split on who thinks the Gophs will cover or not ... they got what they wanted. They don't give a rip if experts/data actually think the Gophers can cover that or not.
 

Some guy said:
Since jumping to D1 (southern illinois)
Jerry Kill +38 is 184-4

Since becoming a D1 head coach PJ Fleck -38 is 6-102-2


So the confluence of those would have to be this game
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How did you find those numbers???
 

Word said:
How did you find those numbers???
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Too much free time
I scanned season records of coaches for games Jerry kill lost by 38+ and games Fleck won by 38+ and did the math


38 is A LOT OF POINTS

I think it’s a no Brainer to take NMSU +38 all else being equal but since fleck could take it personally he may treat the game differently than usual so I wouldn’t bet.

I would have a hard time betting any time -38 ever
Alabama beat Mercer by 34 last year
 
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When it's an obvious warm-up game ... you don't show your hand. You don't put stuff on film that your opponents in future weeks can study. You stick to the basics.
 

Some guy said:
Too much free time
I scanned season records of coaches for games Jerry kill lost by 38+ and games Fleck won by 38+ and did the math


38 is A LOT OF POINTS

I think it’s a no Brainer to take NMSU +38 all else being equal but since fleck could take it personally he may treat the game differently than usual so I wouldn’t bet.

I would have a hard time betting any time -38 ever
Alabama beat Mercer by 34 last year
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This is kind of the point I'm trying to address - the books set these lines so there rarely if ever are "no brainers". Is this the exception? Maybe, but I doubt it.

I don't think any of us will be shocked in NMSU covers the 38, but hardly a no brainer.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Are you going to bet the farm?
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No. Why would I "bet the farm" if I think the line is pretty accurate? I'd only "bet the farm" if I thought the line was way, way off. That's how it works.

If you think the line is correct, stay away. If you think the line is wrong, "bet the farm".
 

Schnauzer said:
I hope Kill’s health holds out and improves and he does well there. I’ll never forget the double low when lowly NMSU visited the bank and beat the Gophers new coach in a game that had a delay due to Kill’s on-field seizure.

I also hope NMSU bring the correct uniforms this time.

Fleck’s teams usually seem to underscore and fail to blowout overmatched opponents. Wasn’t the spread for Bowling Green 30+ last season? I hope this game is a statement and the offense finally rolls out 50-60 points. It’s time for a laugher.
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I was just going to say - we were heavy favorites against Bowling Green. That was a very frustrating day. Hopefully we beat them by more than 38 but I see Fleck running up a lead and letting others get playing time.
 
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RememberMurray said:
No. Why would I "bet the farm" if I think the line is pretty accurate? I'd only "bet the farm" if I thought the line was way, way off. That's how it works.

If you think the line is correct, stay away. If you think the line is wrong, "bet the farm".
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Have you considered you’re possibly a little too sensitive about the team? Lighten up…

In the realm of sports betting there are lines that make sense, and then there are lines that, as someone familiar with the program, don’t make as much sense and so much so it’s almost begging a rare bettor like me to put money down. Then again, I never bet more than a lunch as a general rule. I’m genuinely curious how much others are betting on this game in terms of Gophers covering? Hence my question.
 

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