Early Betting Lines

Treemagnet

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WAGERTALK has the Gophers opening LINE at -38 vs New Mexico State.

I could understand that line if the Gophers were playing White Bear Lake High School but...........
 

Gophers1992

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People really underestimate how bad NMSU is. They might be the worst program in FBS. I’m no expert oddsmaker but 38 points should be more than doable.
 


Gophers1992

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without looking it up I can think of only one time Fleck won by more than 38 -- 2019 against Maryland
Again, NMSU is so bad that there is not a direct comparison. There is a mountain of difference between even the worst B10 teams and NMSU.

Also, we played these guys in 2018 and won by 38.
 

Schnauzer

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I hope Kill’s health holds out and improves and he does well there. I’ll never forget the double low when lowly NMSU visited the bank and beat the Gophers new coach in a game that had a delay due to Kill’s on-field seizure.

I also hope NMSU bring the correct uniforms this time.

Fleck’s teams usually seem to underscore and fail to blowout overmatched opponents. Wasn’t the spread for Bowling Green 30+ last season? I hope this game is a statement and the offense finally rolls out 50-60 points. It’s time for a laugher.
 


RememberMurray

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QUOTE: "Fleck’s teams usually seem to underscore and fail to blowout overmatched opponents."

Hmmmm....

Gopher football
Non-conference, under P.J. Fleck

2017
Buffalo W 17-7
Oregon State W 48-14
Middle Tennessee W 34-3

2018
New Mexico State W 48-10
Fresno State W 21-14
Miami (OH) W 26-3

2019
South Dakota State W 28-21
Fresno State W 38-35 (2 OT)
Georgia Southern W 38-32

2020
COVID - no non-conference games

2021
Miami (OH) W 31-26
Colorado W 30-0
Bowling Green L 10-14

TOTALS/Cumulative:
11 wins, 1 loss
Outscored our non-con opponents 369-169
Average score: 30-14, Gophers
 
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RememberMurray

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Of special interest:

2018, vs New Mexico State — a 48-10 win.

By my math, that margin is precisely 38 points. What an interesting coincidence!
 

fmlizard

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QUOTE: "Fleck’s teams usually seem to underscore and fail to blowout overmatched opponents."

Hmmmm....

Gopher football
Non-conference, under P.J. Fleck

2017
Buffalo W 17-7
Oregon State W 48-14
Middle Tennessee W 34-3

2018
New Mexico State W 48-10
Fresno State W 21-14
Miami (OH) W 26-3

2019
South Dakota State W 28-21
Fresno State W 38-35 (2 OT)
Georgia Southern W 38-32

2020
COVID - no non-conference games

2021
Miami (OH) W 31-26
Colorado W 30-0
Bowling Green L 10-14

TOTALS/Cumulative:
11 wins, 1 loss
Outscored our non-con opponents 369-169
Average score: 30-14, Gophers

Thanks for doing the research. No doubt the Gophers can win decisively, and 16 points per game is decisive. But it's still not close to 38 and none of the above games would have covered...only the 2018 NMST game would have pushed.

A bet to cover -38 is a bet mostly on Fleck rubbing it in on Kill a bit. It's not that the Gophers can't cover 38, it's that both teams will likely play a slow pace and Minnesota typically takes the foot off the gas big time around 21-28 points ahead.
 

RememberMurray

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Hey, there's a truly great thing about wagering:

If you think the line is wrong, YOU CAN JUMP ON IT!

Any one of us can actually profit from our own deep wisdom and insight. If you're sure of yourself, just lay your money down, baby.
 




RememberMurray

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Gophs under Fleck won't cover that spread. They'll be in clock draining mode by the 3rd possession.

Again, I'll point out: If you're pretty sure you're right about that, you can put a bet down, and enrich yourself with your own knowledge.

Sounds like easy money to me.
 

BilldGopher

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Clash of the Titans...

1659011902480.png

As an aside, I do believe Ol' Jer favored maroon attire while PJ is very comfy in both maroon and gold...
 

Gophers1992

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Thanks for doing the research. No doubt the Gophers can win decisively, and 16 points per game is decisive. But it's still not close to 38 and none of the above games would have covered...only the 2018 NMST game would have pushed.

A bet to cover -38 is a bet mostly on Fleck rubbing it in on Kill a bit. It's not that the Gophers can't cover 38, it's that both teams will likely play a slow pace and Minnesota typically takes the foot off the gas big time around 21-28 points ahead.
All of the above games were against vastly superior opponents to NMSU. People are not grasping this point - not all nonconference opponents are similar. There is a mountain of a gap between Oregon State and New Mexico State, who is arguably the worst program in FBS football. So yes, 16 is not close to 38, but NMSU is not close to Fresno State, or even last year's crappy Colorado team. Beating Oregon State by 34 (on the road BTW) is far more impressive than beating New Mexico State by 40. You are not comparing apples to apples here.
 



Gophers_4life

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This doesn't "prove" or "disprove" anything, but both teams will be emphasizing the running game first and foremost.

I'm just saying, that can speed the game up and bring down the scoring. Depends how much and fast we get up, and then how much Fleck plays the backups. If we go up 28-0, the 2's could go in early.
 

Gophers1992

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This doesn't "prove" or "disprove" anything, but both teams will be emphasizing the running game first and foremost.

I'm just saying, that can speed the game up and bring down the scoring. Depends how much and fast we get up, and then how much Fleck plays the backups. If we go up 28-0, the 2's could go in early.
You're right, and I would expect that our 2's can dominate anyone they throw out there.
 

noamfromm

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Again, NMSU is so bad that there is not a direct comparison. There is a mountain of difference between even the worst B10 teams and NMSU.

Also, we played these guys in 2018 and won by 38.
Bowling Green was a terrible team -- I don't think the mountain of difference logic is sound. Fleck has shown time and again his goal isn't to beat the brakes off a team. Just win baby
 

Gophers_4life

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No doubt that their defense will attempt to follow whatever gameplan that Bowling Green and Illinois came up with. Not sure if that was just throw a myriad of blitzes, stunts, and formations out there that we didn't prepare for, or what, but it worked.
 

Gophers1992

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Bowling Green was a terrible team -- I don't think the mountain of difference logic is sound. Fleck has shown time and again his goal isn't to beat the brakes off a team. Just win baby
Bowling Green was terrible, and there's no excusing that loss, but I'm comfortable calling that loss a fluke rather than a trend. My point is under PJ we have had many blowout wins over teams that are far superior to NMSU, and we don't really need to try to run up the score to beat NMSU soundly.

Again, we played this very same program in 2018, with PJ as the head coach, and beat them by exactly 38. I can't speak to NMSU's 2022 vs 2018 roster, but I think we all expect our team to be better than 2018, so I'm not sure why a 38 point spread is so absurd in the eyes of some people on GH.
 

SomeGopherFan

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While I agree New Mexico State is one of the worst teams currently in 1-A, I think 38 points is still a fairly big spread.

In perusing all of the point spreads for the 2021 season on one of the betting sites, I see just 6 games involving 1-A teams where the spread was 38+, and only one didn't involve a powerhouse team.

Considering New Mexico State will also have already played a game prior to the Minnesota, the under seems like the better bet.
 

Replacement Gopher

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Again, NMSU is so bad that there is not a direct comparison. There is a mountain of difference between even the worst B10 teams and NMSU.

Also, we played these guys in 2018 and won by 38.
I would say Bowling Green in 2021 is a fair comparison.
 

Gophers1992

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I would say Bowling Green in 2021 is a fair comparison.
That would be the closest comparison, and NMSU is still worse than them. I'm not willing to say one crazy game against Bowling Green is a trend rather than a fluke.

I'd say 2018 NMSU is a closer comparison.
 

Replacement Gopher

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Gophs under Fleck won't cover that spread. They'll be in clock draining mode by the 3rd possession.
Hard to cover a 38 point spread when every play literally drains the play clock to zero.

Convinced shortening the game against bad teams is why we sometimes lose and/or have extremely close calls.
 

gopherphil

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QUOTE: "Fleck’s teams usually seem to underscore and fail to blowout overmatched opponents."

Hmmmm....

Gopher football
Non-conference, under P.J. Fleck

2017
Buffalo W 17-7
Oregon State W 48-14
Middle Tennessee W 34-3

2018
New Mexico State W 48-10
Fresno State W 21-14
Miami (OH) W 26-3

2019
South Dakota State W 28-21
Fresno State W 38-35 (2 OT)
Georgia Southern W 38-32

2020
COVID - no non-conference games

2021
Miami (OH) W 31-26
Colorado W 30-0
Bowling Green L 10-14

TOTALS/Cumulative:
11 wins, 1 loss
Outscored our non-con opponents 369-169
Average score: 30-14, Gophers
Why do some people always have to prove others wrong?
 


Replacement Gopher

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It is difficult to argue with how badly the offense played in that game. If Ciarrocca gives the offense a faint pulse, we put 30+ on them. Meanwhile NMSU will struggle to reach 200 yards on the day.

I'm on the under with guessing 31-3.
So you’d also take NMSU +38
 



Gophergrandpa

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Beating a 38 point spread, given how slowly we operate on offense, probably relies on a defensive or special teams score. If special teams remain an exercise in fair catching, then the D probably must score. The perception that the Gopher’s offense is tortoise-like in execution and predictable in play calling (featured prominent in BG and IL losses) is more likely a by product of Sanford as OC than a growing and suffocating conservativeness on PJ’s part. I suspect that under KC we will play a more wide open game, stressing opposing D’s rather than telegraphing plays to them! A 38 spread is doable if we play to win the NMSU game; if we play not to lose, all bets are off.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Vegas likes this mindset

Looking at it differently, how much money would one be willing to bet the Gophers have a final 38+ point margin given most every game we’ve seen versus patsies. $5, $200, $10,000. Be honest.

Have to believe Jerry is going to be motivated, elevated blood pressure, twanged up. He is a fellow walrus ball practitioner but historically we’ve seen him pull some stuff at times. Will he sell out, pull out all the stops, or try to keep it respectable. I have my suspicions. We’ll see. That’s why the games are played.
 

RememberMurray

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Looking at it differently, how much money would one be willing to bet the Gophers have a final 38+ point margin given most every game we’ve seen versus patsies. $5, $200, $10,000. Be honest.

Have to believe Jerry is going to be motivated, elevated blood pressure, twanged up. He is a fellow walrus ball practitioner but historically we’ve seen him pull some stuff at times. Will he sell out, pull out all the stops, or try to keep it respectable. I have my suspicions. We’ll see. That’s why the games are played.

I'm not convinced Jerry's motivation level will have a huge impact on the final score in this game. Jerry won't be throwing any blocks or making any tackles. He can be as jacked up as he wants.

The last time we played this team — 2018 — we beat 'em by exactly 38 points. And, call me a homer, but I think there's a very good chance that the 2022 Gophers will be a better team than that 2018 team was.

If I was in Vegas, and my job was setting an early spread, I'd look very closely at the actual score the last time the two teams met. I'd look at both team's recent non-conference record, and the scores in those games.

If you go by Fleck's actual history in non-cons, this spread seems about right to me.
 




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