Do you think the Gophers will make the NCAA Tournament?

Do you think the Gophers will make the NCAA Tournament?

  • Yes, we'll do enough to get in

    Votes: 57 46.0%

  • Nope, we're bound for the NIT

    Votes: 67 54.0%
  • Total voters
    124
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jaymil said:
Jerry Palm claims the committee won't take into account his injury.

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Maybe not explicitly......but individual members may consider his injury. It's tough to win in the Big Ten without (arguably) your best player.

afurry91 said:
Jerry is selling the Gophers way short. He also said our ceiling is a 10 seed if we win the Big Ten Tournament. Ummm... No. If we beat Wisconsin, MSU, and Michigan in the BTT. We are getting better than a 10 seed.
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Makes me feel better about where we stand in his mind.
 

A very good article for nervous Gopher fans written by Joe Lunardi today. Here are some parts of the article. (Insider)

Further down the seed list, we're looking at three elimination-game scenarios involving teams from the "last four in" and "first four out" groups. While nerve-wracking for participants and fans, these neutral-court encounters are a fair and reasonable tiebreaker for the committee:

SEC tournament: If Arkansas gets by Auburn or South Carolina on Thursday, the Hogs play Tennessee on Friday in the 4/5 quarterfinal. The winner would certainly be in the NCAA field while the loser faces a very long wait until the selection show.

Atlantic 10 tournament: Like Arkansas, Dayton must get through a preliminary-round winner (George Mason or Fordham) to face Saint Joseph's in the 4/5 game. The winner of Dayton-Saint Joe's stays alive and probably earns an at-large while the loser heads to the NIT.

Big East tournament: Conveniently, St. John's and Providence square off in a Thursday afternoon quarterfinal (with the winner likely facing Villanova). The loser is out of the NCAA picture and we'll most likely see the winner at the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.

Elsewhere, California (vs. Colorado or Southern Cal) and Minnesota (vs. Penn State) need early victories in their respective conference tourneys. Minnesota probably needs a second win over Wisconsin to cement its position.

For the fringe bubble teams, anything short of two conference tournament wins won't be enough for the likes of Southern Mississippi, Florida State, Missouri and Georgetown.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-col...es-rundown-tournament-odds-college-basketball
 

Lunardi said Minnesota would need a win over Wisconsin to cement their spot, but implies that just one win against Penn State would still give us a shot.

*FWIW, Dan Dakich also contrasts Jerry Palm by saying 1 more win can get us in if a few bubble teams have early exits.
 

cjbfbp said:
True, but during one of the games last week, an announcer informed the audience that only one team with consecutive conference losing records (a Virginia team in the nineties) received consecutive tournament bids. Last year's team also finished the nonconference season 12-1 with some good quality wins and I believe they had a measurably higher RPI than this team at the end of the season. I think there might be a bit too much competition from teams in other power conferences this year. I'm not even 100% positive that 2 wins in the Big Ten tournament will do it for them.
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That doesn't mean much to me, personally. Not saying we're going to get in, but there probably aren't many teams who have had consecutive losing conference records that have also had everything else that we do on our resume. If we beat PSU and Wisconsin, there's no way we get left out. No way in hell.
 

GophersOnTheRise said:
Pretty sure we had the same conference record last year and got in as an 11 seed.
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Good point. However, as has already been noted, every year is different in terms of how selections play out. Last year, the guys needed a good Big Ten Tourney to get in and barely squeaked in even with that. This year, they'll need pretty much the same. Right now, they're on the outside looking in imo. Could they get in with another nice run? Absolutely. But they've left themselves with almost no wiggle room, which is a tough spot to be in.
 


MRJ said:
Good point. However, as has already been noted, every year is different in terms of how selections play out. Last year, the guys needed a good Big Ten Tourney to get in and barely squeaked in even with that. This year, they'll need pretty much the same. Right now, they're on the outside looking in imo. Could they get in with another nice run? Absolutely. But they've left themselves with almost no wiggle room, which is a tough spot to be in.
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You are going a little too far back.....I assume to the year we made it to the finals. Last year, we were eliminated first round by Illinois.
 

Getting into the tournament last year on an 8-10 conference record has nothing to do with us not getting in this year with an 8-10 record. If you roll dice and get two numbers the next time you roll the dice the previous roll has nothing to do with the results.
 

stocker08 said:
You are going a little too far back.....I assume to the year we made it to the finals. Last year, we were eliminated first round by Illinois.
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Yeah I was going to say I think his memory is a little off. Beating Penn State alone would be more of a run than we made last year.
 

Big Ten Championship said:
Getting into the tournament last year on an 8-10 conference record has nothing to do with us not getting in this year with an 8-10 record. If you roll dice and get two numbers the next time you roll the dice the previous roll has nothing to do with the results.
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Right. Last year's team had a better non-conference resume and the big ten was a bit better as well. That's why they could withstand that first round loss and still get in somewhat comfortably (not in a play-in game) while this years team will need the 1, maybe 2 btt wins to get in.
 



Selection Sunday has us in right now which is interesting. We will have to see how things play out this week. Hope for some other bubble teams to take it on the chin early.
 

GophersOnTheRise said:
Yeah I was going to say I think his memory is a little off. Beating Penn State alone would be more of a run than we made last year.
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You're right, my mistake. Difference is that this year we need to play well in the tourney when last year, even with the sad-sack finish, we still found our way in. I was thinking of the year when Devoe Joseph went crazy and that allowed us to get into the tournament. Not sure we need that deep a run this time, but two wins is essential imo.
 


GophersOnTheRise said:
Yeah I was going to say I think his memory is a little off. Beating Penn State alone would be more of a run than we made last year.
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If he turned off the game with a few minutes left, I could understand the assumption that there was no way we would lose that game. The BTT coming up is bringing me back to how angry I was after that loss.
 



The bottom line here is that the team controls its own course and ultimately you can't ask more than that as a competitive athlete. They beat PSU and Wisconsin and they're almost certain to be in. The question in my mind is whether they have it in them to dig deep and win big games with a lot of pressure on them. I guess we'll see this week.
 

SMU needs to lose quickly.
A lot of brackets have them in, but their resume is thin and I feel not deserving of a spot right now.

How the American and Atlantic 10 do for bids is what will be the most interesting.
 


jaymil said:
We are the definition of a bubble team right now, right at the cut line on most sites either barely in or barely out. We'll be sweating out Selection Sunday if we only beat PSU.

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We are the definition of a bubble team for both men's and women's.
 


GopherOhana said:
Still in according to. This math model

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Barely. I have a hard time seeing both Arkansas and Tennessee left out.

Although Cal and Georgetown seem way overranked as well. Both are out IMO, especially if Cal loses to Colorado in their first PAC12 Tourney game.

SMU has games against Houston/Louisville. They're squarely on the bubble and in almost the identical position as the Gophers w/games vs Penn State/Wisconsin.
 

BJN said:
Barely. I have a hard time seeing both Arkansas and Tennessee left out.

Although Cal and Georgetown seem way overranked as well. Both are out IMO, especially if Cal loses to Colorado in their first PAC12 Tourney game.

SMU has games against Houston/Louisville. They're squarely on the bubble and in almost the identical position as the Gophers w/games vs Penn State/Wisconsin.
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barely is correct and likely out with a loss against PSU

what I like about this math model is that it computes the likelihood of a bid given the body of work - different from trying to rank teams. to build the model they can go back to past years and see how well the model performs. Looks to be a good model, if the decision criteria used by the selection committee doesn't change

I think the changes this year are focused mostly on seeding and not having to move teams around (teams from the same conference can meet earlier) - and not about decisions regarding which teams to include
 



howeda7 said:
They have SMU out. I'll be stunned if that's true.
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I think the bubble locations assumes an average number of bid stealers. I don't know for certain, but it looks like an assumption of 3 or 4 bid stealers

the model also probably has a margin of error. it may be that there's little difference between 99% and 98%

I'm thinking few bid stealers this year, so teams 50 and lower are in (51 actually since NDST are already in)

that said, they run the model daily and it will change based on updated results/data
 

Moved up one spot from yesterday's ranking.......not exactly sure how. Would be nice to see a couple bubble teams fall over the next couple of days.
 

stocker08 said:
Moved up one spot from yesterday's ranking.......not exactly sure how. Would be nice to see a couple bubble teams fall over the next couple of days.
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I would think RPI is in their algorithm
Rpi includes a team's winning percentage, that team's opponents' winning percentages, and the opponents' opponents' winning percentages

So if games are being played RPIs are changing even if your team and your team's opponents aren't playing. I think the technical term is cluster f*k
 


Gophers now first team out.

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Bracket Matrix is now updated with about half of the entries including yesterday's games. Gopher's barely hanging onto a 12 seed as the last team in ahead of Providence and behind SMU.
 

Our rpi suggests we may still be in the mix for a spot, though barely
 

RPI currently at 48.
I have a feeling they won't make it and that their RPI will only slide from here, but if they are above 50 (<50) it would be one of the first times I see a big conference school not get a bid with that RPI in a while.
 

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