Do you see 3-4 more BIG 10 WINS?

RockChalk

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I never said they would win 6, 7, or 8 more games. My position is exactly where it was prior to the beginning of the season. I said that Johnson could and should be able to achieve a 17-14 overall regular season record with this team and this schedule but 18-13 would be better and still a fair target.

Turns out that the team is on schedule with my preseason projections. They need 4 more wins to get to 17-14 and 5 to get to 18-13. Also turns out that my preseason expectations were very mainstream. I checked three rating sites this morning where projections were available. ESPN and Torvik project us to win 4 more games and Haslametrics projects 5 more wins.

Your view of only 2 more wins is "on the fringe," not mine.
I'm sorry did I use the word "fringe"?

Like I said, I hope you are right. The next few weeks will be interesting for sure.
 



Some guy

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Well, since you're revising your overall season estimate upward, you are at least acknowledging that your initial estimate likely was wrong.

I agree that the remaining part of the season likely will be more difficult but I can't imagine that it will be "1-10 difficult."
I think 1-10 is more likely than 5-6 based on I think 5-6 means you have to go 5-2 against teams not currently in the top 4 of the conference.

1-5 in those games is more likely than 5-2.
 

BarnBurner

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I would take the under. It will all depend on how the next two games go. If they lose to NW and MSU at home, which I think are both more likely than not, they will be 1-6 over the last month. They would have to go 4-5 over the final month to reach that number, and I don't see it.

If they win one of the next two, they should get to 4.
I think Mn beats msu. I think nw may be tougher.
 














TwistingMyMelon

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Where do you see their 4 wins coming from?

Haven't you been a fan long enough to realize that question is a fool's errand?

You know, during the last offseason, there were more than a few people on this board who would say "Who can this team beat?" Well, so far, they've beaten 4 conference teams and more than half of the season is left. Last season the Gophers CLEARLY were the worst team in the conference BY A LARGE MARGIN but they still beat 3 Big Ten teams (including the victory in the conference tournament). They also lost 4 conference games by four or fewer points.
 

Holy Man

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Haven't you been a fan long enough to realize that question is a fool's errand?

You know, during the last offseason, there were more than a few people on this board who would say "Who can this team beat?" Well, so far, they've beaten 4 conference teams and more than half of the season is left. Last season the Gophers CLEARLY were the worst team in the conference BY A LARGE MARGIN but they still beat 3 Big Ten teams (including the victory in the conference tournament). They also lost 4 conference games by four or fewer points.
All true but I am downgrading the data point of close losses. In college basketball especially, close games between teams with great talent disparities happen because the better team overlooks the worse team. Close losses last year were likely the result of opponents looking past the Gophers, not any "we're on the way up" trajectory. I think some of that is still there this year, but it is much less likely to happen with the experience and talent upgrade.
 


TwistingMyMelon

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All true but I am downgrading the data point of close losses. In college basketball especially, close games between teams with great talent disparities happen because the better team overlooks the worse team. Close losses last year were likely the result of opponents looking past the Gophers, not any "we're on the way up" trajectory. I think some of that is still there this year, but it is much less likely to happen with the experience and talent upgrade.

I don't doubt there is some of that but I think there is more. I believe all of the following:

1) There are variations from game to game in how well (or not well) teams play.

2) Eventually, teams adjust (at least to some degree) to the level of the competition.

3) Teams match up better against some teams than others

4) Teams may mature at different rates.

My main point in that prior post is that games are not always as predictable as some like to think. This is where I think fantasy sports have corrupted minds.
 
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RockChalk

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Haven't you been a fan long enough to realize that question is a fool's errand?

You know, during the last offseason, there were more than a few people on this board who would say "Who can this team beat?" Well, so far, they've beaten 4 conference teams and more than half of the season is left. Last season the Gophers CLEARLY were the worst team in the conference BY A LARGE MARGIN but they still beat 3 Big Ten teams (including the victory in the conference tournament). They also lost 4 conference games by four or fewer points.
I don't believe I was responding to you with that question. We already know where you stand. Thanks though.
 

TwistingMyMelon

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I don't believe I was responding to you with that question. We already know where you stand. Thanks though.

I don't need an invitation and the point is that it's a stupid question but apparently you still don't understand that. Teams win (and lose) games most people don't expect them to and they don't need an explainable reason to accomplish that.
 


Some guy

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I think 1-10 is more likely than 5-6 based on I think 5-6 means you have to go 5-2 against teams not currently in the top 4 of the conference.

1-5 in those games is more likely than 5-2.
He probably clinched his job next season today.
Will definitely be getting to at least 8-12 which I think was the bar
 





jblass

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Northwestern = L
Sparty = L
Hawkeye = L
Boilermaker = L
Rutgers = W
Buckeye = L
Cornhusker = L
Illini = L
PSU = W
Hoosier = L
Northwestern = L

2 MAYBE 3 more winds for the Gopher this year. I truly hope I'm wrong, lack of any confidence in the HC would be the reason.
Carnac, I understand your glass ball was a little cloudy when you first looked. Has it cleared up a bit? What are you seeing now?
 


Dave H

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I feel like this could turn into a fun thread as the season goes on :)
 


MNVCGUY

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After last night a 10-10 regular season or maybe better feels very doable. I was as hopeful as any about this team and this season but I didn't think we would be sitting here in early February in the top half of the conference.
 




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