Do you see 3-4 more BIG 10 WINS?

TwistingMyMelon

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Rutgers and PSU sounds about right. Sometimes the truth hurts.

Truth? The word "truth" applies only to something that's already happened. I don't know why some of you insist on butchering the English language. Makes you look really dumb.
 


TwistingMyMelon

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I doubt the Gophers will be favored against either MSU or Northwestern. You are right that Sparty has a pattern of playing well in February. The Cats have been playing well and are setting their sights high. I doubt they overlook the Gophers.

The official lines aren't out yet but, according to ESPN's BPI game predictions, your doubts are warranted. However, NW is only a very slight favorite (like maybe 51-49%). Michigan State's probability is higher. Michigan State didn't seem all that impressive when we played them on the road but their comparatively tough schedule keeps them rated highly by the indexes.
 

Cayman

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I'll say we win 4 more games:

Beat Rutgers and Penn State at home

Go 2-2 against Northwestern, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Indiana at home, but 3-1 wouldn't be shocking. If I had to guess, we'll be 2-5 point underdogs at home against Northwestern and Michigan State, and favored in the other two, but it felt like we had a tough time defending Mgbako for Indiana.

0-3 with a chance of 1-2 in road games against Northwestern, Nebraska, and Iowa.

0-2 in road games at Purdue and Illinois. Would be very surprised if we won either of those.

Ohio State seems to be floundering somewhat at the moment, and we kept it even with Michigan State in East Lansing for most of the game while missing Elijah Hawkins, committing a bunch of turnovers, and IMO getting kinda screwed by the officiating.

Would love to be able to see the Gophers win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament in person at the Target Center this year though.
 









Drew21

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If they take care of business at home and win against Nebraska and one more road game, 6 or 7 more wins is doable.
 


JZABR

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6 more conf wins, and 2 more in BTN tournament in Mpls. MN still has a "big upset" win remaining, like we seem to have most years, and the closer 1-2 possession games we can win. Big upset win no one sees coming...@Illinois or @Purdue..? Would be terrific.
There have been more than a plethora of upsets this year. I think we could get one. COULD. If we solidify ourselves above the bottom teams of the big 10, that'll make the barn harder to play in and have a nice home court advantage
 
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Some guy

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Northwestern
Michigan State
@ Iowa
1-2

@ Purdue
0-1

Rutgers
Ohio state
@ Nebraska
1-2

@ Illinois
Penn state
Indiana
@ northwestern

1-3

Probably finish 7-13 in my opinion. I think 8-12 more likely than 6-14.
5-15 probably more likely than 9-11
 





TwistingMyMelon

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5-15 probably more likely than 9-11

So, you think that a team that went 4-5 over its first 9 conference games while playing 5 games on the road is more likely to finish 1-10 over its last 11 conference games (with 6 at home) than finish 5-6?

That's just flat out weird.
 

RockChalk

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You realize they will have the same coach they had when they won four of their first 9 conference games, right? Of those first 9 games, 5 were on the road. Of the last 11 games, 6 are at home. But, your call is that they can only win 2, MAYBE 3 more games.

Is it your theory that shitty coaches get shittier as the year goes on?
My theory is Ben is not a good HC in my opinion. His offensive sets are terrible. His teams defense is not that good. He can hardly set up something to score a basket out of a timeout.

Will he be good/decent at some point in his career, maybe. Unfortunately he is not there at this point in time. He was given a power conference HC job way before his time. He needs more seasoning.
 

TwistingMyMelon

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My theory is Ben is not a good HC in my opinion. His offensive sets are terrible. His teams defense is not that good. He can hardly set up something to score a basket out of a timeout.

Will he be good/decent at some point in his career, maybe. Unfortunately he is not there at this point in time. He was given a power conference HC job way before his time. He needs more seasoning.

Yet, despite all of that, the team went 4-5 over the first 9 games.

Look, I get it, you hate Johnson as a coach and want him gone yesterday but, at some point, if you have even a shred of honesty you have to admit that this team has played better over the first 9 conference games than you thought they would and there is nothing other than your sheer burning hatred that supports a firm belief that they can't win about as many as they have so far over the remainder of the regular season.

How many conference wins did you predict before the season started? From the way you talk, I would guess no more than 4. They've already achieved that with over half of the conference regular season remaining.
 

Some guy

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So, you think that a team that went 4-5 over its first 9 conference games while playing 5 games on the road is more likely to finish 1-10 over its last 11 conference games (with 6 at home) than finish 5-6?

That's just flat out weird.
Yes, I think a team that has beaten the two worst teams in the conference on the road but only gets to play one of them at home on the back half the schedule will have a tougher time.

Yes I think a team that is currently 0-1 vs the top 4 but plays the top 4 4 times in the second half of the schedule will have a tougher second half than first half.

I very well could be wrong.
Rutgers could be as bad as Penn state and Michigan. I don’t think they are.
Northwestern could be a middle of the pack team not a top 4 team.


Team has already won 4 games. Preseason I would’ve picked them for the 3-6 range.
Now I would pick them for the 6-8 wins range.
 

TwistingMyMelon

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That's the perfect O/U - I'd hate to bet the over or the under.

That's what a couple of the quantitative rating sites (ESPN & Torvik) are predicting (8-12 overall conference finish). Haslametrics is predicting 5 more wins and a 9-11 overall conference record at this point. I don't know what Pomeroy is predicting. I assume that's behind the pay wall.
 

TwistingMyMelon

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Yes I think a team that is currently 0-1 vs the top 4 but plays the top 4 4 times in the second half of the schedule will have a tougher second half than first half.

I very well could be wrong.
Rutgers could be as bad as Penn state and Michigan. I don’t think they are.
Northwestern could be a middle of the pack team not a top 4 team.


Team has already won 4 games. Preseason I would’ve picked them for the 3-6 range.
Now I would pick them for the 6-8 wins range.

Well, since you're revising your overall season estimate upward, you are at least acknowledging that your initial estimate likely was wrong.

I agree that the remaining part of the season likely will be more difficult but I can't imagine that it will be "1-10 difficult."
 

howeda7

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Given that this is Minnesota sports, we'll go 3-8 the rest of the way, Coyle will say "7-13 is enough progress" and tell Musselman thanks but no thanks.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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That's the perfect O/U - I'd hate to bet the over or the under.

I would take the under. It will all depend on how the next two games go. If they lose to NW and MSU at home, which I think are both more likely than not, they will be 1-6 over the last month. They would have to go 4-5 over the final month to reach that number, and I don't see it.

If they win one of the next two, they should get to 4.
 

Otis

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The best they could possibly do is six wins. The worst they could possibly do is 0.

So, over/under is 3.

I would say the smart money would be in the under since any possible wins will most likely be nail bitingly close.

If the Muss news is true, I would be hoping for the goose egg.
 

SplitDecision

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There is nothing impressive about Izzo's team statistically, or the eye test. Not including non-conf schedule--(level playing field vs BTN teams), MSU is only in the top 3 category for Turnover Rate%-(13.4%). They are 14th, WORST in getting Free Throw line (23.5%). MSU is 12th in 2PFG%, and 13th in 3PRateDefensively allowing 41.5% of shots from 3. MN is MORE likely to win both games NW and MSU than they are likely to lose both.

Northwestern is a dichotomy. They are VERY good at some things, and very BAD at others:
Turnover rate--lowest in conf. at 11.8%
3PFG%--highest at 42.5% made
Turnovers Forced Defense--second 19.3%
Effective FG%--3rd 55.9%

Wow! Unbeatable right? NO, they stink at the following:

Free Throw Rate Allowed--worst in conf. 47.7%
Offensive Rebounding--worst in conf. 21.7%
Defensive Rebounding--13th at 33.9%
2PFG defense--12th 52.5% allowed
3PFG defense--12th 38.9% allowed

Minnesota is very good at shooting 2's (second in conf. 54.5% made), and getting to the free throw line (3rd in conf. 37.3% rate). MN shoots the 3rd most 3's in conf., and defends against 3PF attempts second best in conf--teams only taking 3's at 27.1% of FGs. I like the matchup vs NW.

They are the most divergent team in the BTN by the numbers. Granted, if you make all your shots, there aren't a lot of rebounds to get. That doesn't explain the other end of the floor though. The Gophers can win both games if they rebound and make some 3's.
 

Big Dawg

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There is nothing impressive about Izzo's team statistically, or the eye test. Not including non-conf schedule--(level playing field vs BTN teams), MSU is only in the top 3 category for Turnover Rate%-(13.4%). They are 14th, WORST in getting Free Throw line (23.5%). MSU is 12th in 2PFG%, and 13th in 3PRateDefensively allowing 41.5% of shots from 3. MN is MORE likely to win both games NW and MSU than they are likely to lose both.

Northwestern is a dichotomy. They are VERY good at some things, and very BAD at others:
Turnover rate--lowest in conf. at 11.8%
3PFG%--highest at 42.5% made
Turnovers Forced Defense--second 19.3%
Effective FG%--3rd 55.9%

Wow! Unbeatable right? NO, they stink at the following:

Free Throw Rate Allowed--worst in conf. 47.7%
Offensive Rebounding--worst in conf. 21.7%
Defensive Rebounding--13th at 33.9%
2PFG defense--12th 52.5% allowed
3PFG defense--12th 38.9% allowed

Minnesota is very good at shooting 2's (second in conf. 54.5% made), and getting to the free throw line (3rd in conf. 37.3% rate). MN shoots the 3rd most 3's in conf., and defends against 3PF attempts second best in conf--teams only taking 3's at 27.1% of FGs. I like the matchup vs NW.

They are the most divergent team in the BTN by the numbers. Granted, if you make all your shots, there aren't a lot of rebounds to get. That doesn't explain the other end of the floor though. The Gophers can win both games if they rebound and make some 3's.
Great breakdown. Thanks for putting that together. Before the season started, I said 7 BIG wins +/- 3. I was betting the under which would be 6. I hope it goes one way or the other. Win them all or lose them all. I want it to be obvious which way to go at the end of the season. If we win half (or more) of the remainder, don't play on weakling Wednesday and win a BIG tourney game, it will be easy to keep Ben. If we melt down the rest of the way including a weakling Wednesday loss, it will be easy to say goodbye to Ben. My guess is we'll be somewhere in the middle of that and it will not be obvious what to do with our current HC.
 

TwistingMyMelon

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I want it to be obvious which way to go at the end of the season.

I think it would be hard to get a consensus around here about what would be an obvious retain or terminate situation and the final result of the season probably will fall in a gray area.
If some people around here had their way, Johnson would be terminated regardless of how this season played out.

I said before the season started that a 17-14 finish (without considering any postseason possibilities) should be enough for him to be continued although 18-13 would be better and more convincing.
 

RockChalk

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Yet, despite all of that, the team went 4-5 over the first 9 games.

Look, I get it, you hate Johnson as a coach and want him gone yesterday but, at some point, if you have even a shred of honesty you have to admit that this team has played better over the first 9 conference games than you thought they would and there is nothing other than your sheer burning hatred that supports a firm belief that they can't win about as many as they have so far over the remainder of the regular season.

How many conference wins did you predict before the season started? From the way you talk, I would guess no more than 4. They've already achieved that with over half of the conference regular season remaining.
@iowa = L
@ Purdue = L
@ Nebraska = L
@ILLINI = L
@ Northwestern = L

Home games vs Northwestern, Sparty, Buckeye, Hoosier I believe they will be underdogs with a greater chance to lose than win.

That leaves Home games vs Rutgers and PSU where we should be favored and I think we will win.

I hope you are right, I hope they win 6, 7 or 8 more games, I really do. However, imo the deck is stacked against them.
 

Johnnyboy18

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@iowa = L
@ Purdue = L
@ Nebraska = L
@ILLINI = L
@ Northwestern = L

Home games vs Northwestern, Sparty, Buckeye, Hoosier I believe they will be underdogs with a greater chance to lose than win.

That leaves Home games vs Rutgers and PSU where we should be favored and I think we will win.

I hope you are right, I hope they win 6, 7 or 8 more games, I really do. However, imo the deck is stacked against them.
I just hope they can avoid a road loss to a team outside of the top 100 when ranked top 10.

There's a 0% chance they will be underdogs against Indiana and Ohio State.
 
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TwistingMyMelon

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I hope you are right, I hope they win 6, 7 or 8 more games, I really do. However, imo the deck is stacked against them.

I never said they would win 6, 7, or 8 more games. My position is exactly where it was prior to the beginning of the season. I said that Johnson could and should be able to achieve a 17-14 overall regular season record with this team and this schedule but 18-13 would be better and still a fair target.

Turns out that the team is on schedule with my preseason projections. They need 4 more wins to get to 17-14 and 5 to get to 18-13. Also turns out that my preseason expectations were very mainstream. I checked three rating sites this morning where projections were available. ESPN and Torvik project us to win 4 more games and Haslametrics projects 5 more wins.

Your view of only 2 more wins is "on the fringe," not mine.
 




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