Disillusionment

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TwistingMyMelon said:
I don't know. It wasn't that long ago that we saw Fleck begging for NIL money both in events with donors and in interviews. I don't recall Ben Johnson doing that although I'll concede that I might have missed the occasion. The football program, with far more players to be concerned about than the basketball program, seems to be in a little better NIL shape right now based on some of the recruits we're getting. Personally, I think "ain't too proud to beg" isn't such a bad quality for a coach these days and maybe that should be brought up in the interview.
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No bad days.
 

I think Minnesota has to come to terms with the fact that they have to play Moneyball for the foreseeable future. They won’t be able to ever have the NIL budget to get the proven commodities.

That then requires a coaching staff that can identify a group of players that they can afford and whose skills complement each others towards whatever system they’re aiming for.

And (and this might be the biggest change for what has been a developmental program), a successful coaching staff has to coach only for the current season. No more embracing the suck because once you come through the other side, you have to take three steps back with key pieces exiting. If you have a system that takes multiple years to master, you need to adapt and take shortcuts.
 

formerlybis said:
It can simultaneously be true that the roster situation is not his fault and he’s not a good coach. Please name 9 worse coaches in the league (the number it would take to be average).
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Ben assembled (and coached...showed them how to put a ball in a hoop) a team that I thought had a good chance at a Sweet-16 next year.

Something that hasn't been done here in almost 30 years here.
 

jamiche said:
As of yesterday there were 80 B1G players in the TP. The lowest number of transfers belonged to Purdue (2). Three schools have seven transfers. The gophers have six transfers.

Nobody on the board is arguing that CBJ is a top notch coach. However, to blame Johnson for a systemic problem is myopic.
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No one is blaming him for the problem. They are blaming his ability to adjust to the new reality.

The argument is that he is worse than most coaches at adapting to the new system. As you have pointed out, it impacts everyone. It gutted Rutgers last year. Wisconsin lost one of the best players in the country (arguably). It destroyed Michigan.

Hell, we've probably brought in more talent than we've lost in the portal.
Arrivals: Garcia, Willis, Fox, Hawkins, Cooper, Mitchell, Loewe, Stephens, Sutherlin, Mitchell, Rigsby
vs.
Departures: Payne, Hawkins, Cooper, Henley, Thompson, Carrington.

These are the same rules and the same system that applies to similar-situated schools who have done a much better job than we have. The new system should not be an excuse for Ben Johnson, navigating that system is part of his job.

Now, if we add a couple of pieces and we end up going over .500 in the Big 10 and make the tournament, Ben should get kudos. Part of that kudos would be due to his ability to navigate the new world of college basketball.
 




LesBolstad said:
Silly per usual. Coyle is fine. He did the DEI hire as instructed and it didn't work out. I'm confident he'll get it right after the next season.
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So do want the new coach to bring in players that are better Garcia, Christie, Payne, Hawkins, and Mitchell Jr. ?

Or worse...so we can keep them for more than 1 year?

Or reload every year...with diamonds in the rough?

What do you want the new coach to do?
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
Ben assembled (and coached...showed them how to put a ball in a hoop) a team that I thought had a good chance at a Sweet-16 next year.

Something that hasn't been done here in almost 30 years here.
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That's delusional. Even if everyone returns, adding Asuma doesn't turn 9-11, 10th place into a Sweet 16 team. They were an NCAA bubble team if they kept the team together. At the moment they're a B1G tournament bubble team.
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
So do want the new coach to bring in players that are better Garcia, Christie, Payne, Hawkins, and Mitchell Jr. ?

Or worse...so we can keep them for more than 1 year?

Or reload every year...with diamonds in the rough?

What do you want the new coach to do?
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see post #92.

All successful coaches going forward have to excel with a roster of one-year players. No more embracing the suck or laying foundations. This is the #1 requirement because the roster is always going to be volatile.

For high-majors like MN, no more recruiting HS players who won't contribute on day one. Kids like the one from Alexandria are not P5-worthy until they prove it at St. Thomas or similar. Experienced players from lower levels are going to be the bread and butter.
 



formerlybis said:
see post #92.

All successful coaches going forward have to excel with a roster of one-year players. No more embracing the suck or laying foundations. This is the #1 requirement because the roster is always going to be volatile.

For high-majors like MN, no more recruiting HS players who won't contribute on day one. Kids like the one from Alexandria are not P5-worthy until they prove it at St. Thomas or similar. Experienced players from lower levels are going to be the bread and butter.
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Interesting thought.... Do schools, through their intermediaries start to offer multi year contracts to freshmen whereby money builds the longer they stick? Sort of a golden handcuffs strategy? You build equity as you stay longer.. So you take a frosh that might we worth $20k (due to inexperience) and put 80k a year more in a side account for him that only gets paid out if he lasts the 4 years. If that guy enters his junior year and walks he leaves behind $240k that is being held in his name. Make the deal such that the coach can cut him at end of the year for a fraction of the payout. Now you put the bat back in the school's hands- perhaps a way to spur development. If the kid gets better- add to his contract.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
let's say that most of us agree that Ben is part of the problem. after that, it becomes a question of percentages.

I tend to believe that the changes in college basketball - free transfers and unlimited NIL - are a larger part of the problem - especially for a program like MN that is struggling to remain relevant and has no recent winning tradition.

so If Coyle is going to fire Ben, Coyle has to find a coach who is able to bring in significantly more NIL. Do you think Coyle can pull that off? I don't.

Firing Ben, and having Coyle hire a new coach, in my book, is re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

in the long run, if you want to transform Gopher hoops, then start with the AD and let the new AD make the coaching decision.
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As I've said before, Coyle hired CBJ and should fire himself for UoM's basketball hires during his tenure: Whalen and CBJ. Neither had head coaching experience and were expected to turn around the programs which, without experience was nearly impossible. CBJ deserves credit for this season's improvements, but he's also copiable for years 1 and 2 last place finishes, which made year 3's improvement greater than it should have been if pervious years weren't so terrible.
 

bga1 said:
Interesting thought.... Do schools, through their intermediaries start to offer multi year contracts to freshmen whereby money builds the longer they stick? Sort of a golden handcuffs strategy? You build equity as you stay longer.. So you take a frosh that might we worth $20k (due to inexperience) and put 80k a year more in a side account for him that only gets paid out if he lasts the 4 years. If that guy enters his junior year and walks he leaves behind $240k that is being held in his name. Make the deal such that the coach can cut him at end of the year for a fraction of the payout. Now you put the bat back in the school's hands- perhaps a way to spur development. If the kid gets better- add to his contract.
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To help me understand this better, tell me how this would work in practice for: a) Christie, b) Payne, c) Hawkins, d) Carrington.
 

howeda7 said:
That's delusional. Even if everyone returns, adding Asuma doesn't turn 9-11, 10th place into a Sweet 16 team. They were an NCAA bubble team if they kept the team together. At the moment they're a B1G tournament bubble team.
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I've been following the Gophers since Haskins started. I know what a Sweet-16 contender is.

You don't. You only know what happened in the past. You only see wins & losses...with zero context behind it.
 



EasyThere Pilgrim said:
Ben assembled (and coached...showed them how to put a ball in a hoop) a team that I thought had a good chance at a Sweet-16 next year.

Something that hasn't been done here in almost 30 years here.
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You didn't answer the question...which is no surprise I guess because you probably realize there isnt 9 worse coaches in the Big Infinity right now.

And while you thought it was a Sweet 16 team I would say .000001% of people would agree with you. Even less who aren't related to the team in some capacity. Maybe if they had made a longer run in the NIT I would buy it but they lost second round. I mean come on man...
 

formerlybis said:
To help me understand this better, tell me how this would work in practice for: a) Christie, b) Payne, c) Hawkins, d) Carrington.
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Freshmen are far cheaper to attain than transfers- unless said frosh is a top 25 or 50 type.

Christie was probably the biggest frosh recruit of those 4. So you bid what it takes to get him, let's say with him it is 40k. But you say to him- we will put an additional 100k of you stay year 2 on the side, same with year 3 and 4. We will add to your deal with success year by year but you get the side money if you last the whole time. We can also cut you from the roster but only so much of that pot is "vested".

So to leave after year one Christie has to bypass 100k plus whatever his 1 year contract was for year 2. Each year he leaves behind more money if he goes.

Another thing you could do for a kid like Christie now- is offer him more than you have on hand. Give the kid 700k to stay- 400k this year ( as is rumored) and 300 over the following two years from now that is held for him guaranteed if he turns pro but doesn't go to another school.

For freshmen, you write the contact for what he is worth and up it as he gets better but always keep the golden handcuff provision in front of him until he serves the full term. That way the incumbent school's offer gets a head start over the poaching school. Furthermore guys who stick out the 4 year time frame but may not be stars- get a reward for loyalty.

Hawkins is the only name in that group that is different. There you may write it year by year because he is a transfer in and not a development guy. Maybe you have another 50k holdback for him for that second year or something like that but it is not a 4 year build up, obviously.
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
I've been following the Gophers since Haskins started. I know what a Sweet-16 contender is.

You don't. You only know what happened in the past. You only see wins & losses...with zero context behind it.
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How do you know what he/she knows? And I have been watching since Haskins too so does that mean I also know what a Sweet Sixteen team is?

The irony of using the past to prop up your cred then attacking someone for living in the past is delicious though. The projection is real!
 

formerlybis said:
see post #92.

All successful coaches going forward have to excel with a roster of one-year players. No more embracing the suck or laying foundations. This is the #1 requirement because the roster is always going to be volatile.

For high-majors like MN, no more recruiting HS players who won't contribute on day one. Kids like the one from Alexandria are not P5-worthy until they prove it at St. Thomas or similar. Experienced players from lower levels are going to be the bread and butter.
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I did see post #92. It's beautifully written. Has a nice ring to it. Identify players. Complimenting skills. A system. No more embracing losing.

But there is no actual substance. No specifics.

Here you do say a specific...we bring in players for 1 year and 1 year only. Okay. But it won't work. Without year-to-year improvement...bringing in low-profile players and trying to win immediately will not work.
 

dbmn said:
but he's also copiable for years 1 and 2 last place finishes, which made year 3's improvement greater than it should have been if pervious years weren't so terrible.
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Ben tried the recruiting & developing strategy. Along with hoping to have our transfers back. He had a good team ready to go next year.

Of course we now know that our good players will get bought by other teams.

So I guess you're saying that you hope a new coach can identify players better than Hawkins & Mitchell Jr., etc.
 

Dave H said:
You didn't answer the question...which is no surprise I guess because you probably realize there isnt 9 worse coaches in the Big Infinity right now.

And while you thought it was a Sweet 16 team I would say .000001% of people would agree with you. Even less who aren't related to the team in some capacity. Maybe if they had made a longer run in the NIT I would buy it but they lost second round. I mean come on man...
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We will have to agree to disagree on how good we'd be if everyone returned next year. I was really looking forward to it. And I think I'm right.

As for naming 9 better coaches...how are we going to do that?? They show kids how to put a ball in a hoop. So most likely they all do it pretty close to the same way. Ben's players are getting millions of dollars...so he must have done something right.
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
I've been following the Gophers since Haskins started. I know what a Sweet-16 contender is.

You don't. You only know what happened in the past. You only see wins & losses...with zero context behind it.
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I've been following just as long. And if you think last year's team was close to being a Sweet 16 team you're delusional.

They had one quad one win. They went 4-11 against the non-Weakling Wednesday portion of the B1G. They started by playing the most pathetic non-conference schedule in school history and ended 1-5. In between they had a couple nice wins. They were improved over the terrible teams of the previous two years. On the verge of a Sweet 16? No.
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
Ben tried the recruiting & developing strategy. Along with hoping to have our transfers back. He had a good team ready to go next year.

Of course we now know that our good players will get bought by other teams.

So I guess you're saying that you hope a new coach can identify players better than Hawkins & Mitchell Jr., etc.
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EasyThere Pilgrim said:
Ben tried the recruiting & developing strategy. Along with hoping to have our transfers back. He had a good team ready to go next year.

Of course we now know that our good players will get bought by other teams.

So I guess you're saying that you hope a new coach can identify players better than Hawkins & Mitchell Jr., etc.
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CBJ put together a good team last year and their record reflected success for this year. I was excited for the team and players to return with CBJ as the coach for more success which includes both Hawkins and Mithcell. My points were (1) Coyle hiring CBJ, an unproven coach, same as Whalen and Pitino, even though Coyle didn't hire Pitino, wasn't CBJ's fault. (2) Even though Coyle put CBJ in a position that CBJ wasn't ready for, CBJ took the job and ultimately wins, and attendance are his purview. I'm not advocating CBJ's firing at this point. Wins and attendance will be the deciding factors how long CBJ is coaching at MN and players make the first 2 requirements POSSIBLE.
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
I did see post #92. It's beautifully written. Has a nice ring to it. Identify players. Complimenting skills. A system. No more embracing losing.

But there is no actual substance. No specifics.

Here you do say a specific...we bring in players for 1 year and 1 year only. Okay. But it won't work. Without year-to-year improvement...bringing in low-profile players and trying to win immediately will not work.
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My point is that you can’t count on your best players coming back. That will be true of 90% of programs. Of course it would be better to develop from year to year, but the roster turnover makes that very difficult. Coaches have to adapt and learn how to maximize what they have THIS year, and that works better with older, experienced players. At least that’s the best bet.
 

let's put it this way -- what does a successful program need? My thoughts:

a supportive Administration
a supportive and proactive Athletic Department
good facilities and on-campus resources
good coaching (including recruiting and in-game coaching)
a competitive level of NIL (or pay for play, if you prefer - PFP)

The Gophers have the facilities. the Administration and Athletic Department areas are iffy, IMHO.
the competitive level of NIL - not even close.
Coaching could be better - but even if the coaching was better, MN would still need to have significant improvements in NIL or PFP. and the Support from the Administration could be stronger.

as for the AD - I think a different AD could find ways to be more supportive of the basketball program, instead of spending 98% of his time trying to please the football coach. (I am not saying that FB is not important - it is. But football success should not come at the expense of other programs.

that is what I mean when I say Ben is part of the problem, but he is far from the only problem.
 

howeda7 said:
I've been following just as long. And if you think last year's team was close to being a Sweet 16 team you're delusional.

They had one quad one win. They went 4-11 against the non-Weakling Wednesday portion of the B1G. They started by playing the most pathetic non-conference schedule in school history and ended 1-5. In between they had a couple nice wins. They were improved over the terrible teams of the previous two years. On the verge of a Sweet 16? No.
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You're delusional, not me. I don't obsess over computers or the past.

We were about a .500 B1G team...but with NO SENIORS...which hardly ever happens for us. Garcia was great already. Christie has huge potential. Hawkins was record-setting in his 1st year of P5 play. Payne is a good big-man, finally going to be an upperclassman. Mitchell Jr. led the team in scoring a few times in his 1st year of P5 play.

I know potential when I see it
 

formerlybis said:
My point is that you can’t count on your best players coming back. That will be true of 90% of programs. Of course it would be better to develop from year to year, but the roster turnover makes that very difficult. Coaches have to adapt and learn how to maximize what they have THIS year, and that works better with older, experienced players. At least that’s the best bet.
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But with no money, there's really nothing that the coach can do.
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
You're delusional, not me. I don't obsess over computers or the past.

We were about a .500 B1G team...but with NO SENIORS...which hardly ever happens for us. Garcia was great already. Christie has huge potential. Hawkins was record-setting in his 1st year of P5 play. Payne is a good big-man, finally going to be an upperclassman. Mitchell Jr. led the team in scoring a few times in his 1st year of P5 play.

I know potential when I see it
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This has nothing to do with "computers" or "the past" it has to do with observing the current team. It was a slightly below average B1G team, not a Sweet 16 team. Yes, I believe Christie will (or would have) done more in year 2 and perhaps Payne. The rest of the team pretty much is what it is. It's also not unheard of for some people who seemed to play above expectations like Hawkins, to regress. Asuma would have been the only significant addition if everyone came back. Adding one freshman and progress from a couple guys doesn't rocket you from 10th place in the B1G to a top 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. It just doesn't.
 

howeda7 said:
This has nothing to do with "computers" or "the past" it has to do with observing the current team. It was a slightly below average B1G team, not a Sweet 16 team. Yes, I believe Christie will (or would have) done more in year 2 and perhaps Payne. The rest of the team pretty much is what it is. It's also not unheard of for some people who seemed to play above expectations like Hawkins, to regress. Asuma would have been the only significant addition if everyone came back. Adding one freshman and progress from a couple guys doesn't rocket you from 10th place in the B1G to a top 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. It just doesn't.
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What do you mean by Top 4 seed in NCAA tournament?
 

PMWinSTP said:
What do you mean by Top 4 seed in NCAA tournament?
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Just that. He's claiming the Gophers were a Sweet 16 team if everyone returned. I take that to mean one of the 16 best teams in the country.

Obviously any bubble team that gets in as an 11 seed can theoretically pull off a couple upsets. That's not a "Sweet 16 contender" though.
 

howeda7 said:
Just that. He's claiming the Gophers were a Sweet 16 team if everyone returned. I take that to mean one of the 16 best teams in the country.

Obviously any bubble team that gets in as an 11 seed can theoretically pull off a couple upsets. That's not a "Sweet 16 contender" though.
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OK, thanks. I took Sweet 16 contender to mean they could potentially get there, so at least a tournament win to play for a Sweet 16 birth. As we know, the Sweet 16 is not usually all the Top 16 ranked teams.
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
But with no money, there's really nothing that the coach can do.
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This is why I brought up Moneyball. Teams without the biggest payroll can compete if they have a plan and execute it. It's still better to be the big payroll team, but there are lots of examples of teams punching above their weight in all sports.
 

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