Did the Gophers improve their backcourt this offseason?

Gophers7633

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The only similar thing about those players is that they were ranked #233 in their class so using them as direct comparisons to Betts is pretty flawed right from the get go. Not to mention he was rated significantly higher than that before he reclassified to bypass his senior year.

There is no guarantee Betts will be ready to contribute this year and he almost certainly won't be a finished product. But until we actually see him on the court there is simply no way to know for sure what he is going to bring to the table.

Relying on freshman to be the stars on your team is a dangerous proposition. Relying on freshman to be contributors isn't nearly as dangerous and happens all the time. Betts will be the age of a typical true freshman but he should be way ahead of the typical true freshman due to already having a full year in the system under his belt.

How is it flawed logic comparing him to similarity rated players and their production Freshman year? The point is, expecting production as a FR from someone that rates where he did isn't likely as it relates to winning. Hell we saw that turned out this last year when we had to rely heavily on Henley, JOJ and Carrington. Who were actually rated higher. I'm hoping for the best, but if he gives us more than 4/5 ppg, I'd be surprised.
 

skiumah1

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I don't get the talk about the 3 position. That may the most flexible position in college basketball. Teams play 3 guard lineups, 2 small guards and a tall wing, a pg and 2 tall wings, and some teams even play stretch 4s at the 3.

The teams who played in the big ten championship game started 3s similar to Carrington and Christie. I think people are overthinking this. Our problem is our 3 position its our overloaded frontcourt with not enough backcourt depth.

Penn State started 6'4 Myles Dread at the 3
Purdue Started 6'5 170 lbs Fletcher Loyer at the 3
Agreed - Could be Christie at times, Carrington, Betts, JOJ, Ihnen, etc.

Especially if Ben is able to mix in Zone D concepts, really shouldn't be an issue.
 

Gophers7633

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But you can't compare them based on ranking. I would bet a player like Evans wouldn't be comparable to a guard or wing at the same rankings.

I'm only comparing them based on where he ranks and what to expect in terms of contributing. That's it. You can expect him to be a double digit scorer, and that would be awesome if he was. I'm tempering my expectations based on how guys have performed who have been rated as such. It's not like he was a top 50 recruit.
 

MNVCGUY

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How is it flawed logic comparing him to similarity rated players and their production Freshman year? The point is, expecting production as a FR from someone that rates where he did isn't likely as it relates to winning. Hell we saw that turned out this last year when we had to rely heavily on Henley, JOJ and Carrington. Who were actually rated higher. I'm hoping for the best, but if he gives us more than 4/5 ppg, I'd be surprised.
To the first part - different positions, different systems, different supporting casts....all those things factor into production. And then there is the whole reclassifying part as well.

Last year we had to rely heavily on 4 true freshman. This year we have a true freshman in Christie and a redshirt freshman in Betts who will be looked at to contribute but shouldn't have nearly the same level of pressure to be good right away that 4 guys last year faced.

Bottom line with Betts is that he is a wildcard for 23-24.
 



Crappie

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To the first part - different positions, different systems, different supporting casts....all those things factor into production. And then there is the whole reclassifying part as well.

Last year we had to rely heavily on 4 true freshman. This year we have a true freshman in Christie and a redshirt freshman in Betts who will be looked at to contribute but shouldn't have nearly the same level of pressure to be good right away that 4 guys last year faced.

Bottom line with Betts is that he is a wildcard for 23-24.
Wildcard? Not according to rockraven. Will be an all conference selection.
 

The SF Rock

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I remember hearing this. The only reason he was ranked 233 is because he moved up a class.

I would think Betts should be ready to contribute. Will he be a star? Likely not at this point but I'd expect to see him contributing.
Expect some growing pains along with a serious highlight reel. All B1G freshman team. Christie could be on it too. There are so many good options for this team. CBJ need to put them together effectively or a mass exit coming. Need NIL too, but half this board sees no value in our players.
 


Gophers7633

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To the first part - different positions, different systems, different supporting casts....all those things factor into production. And then there is the whole reclassifying part as well.

Last year we had to rely heavily on 4 true freshman. This year we have a true freshman in Christie and a redshirt freshman in Betts who will be looked at to contribute but shouldn't have nearly the same level of pressure to be good right away that 4 guys last year faced.

Bottom line with Betts is that he is a wildcard for 23-24.

I'm not talking about all that. I'm simply taking into account how he is perceived from a talent standpoint. How talented is he overall, compared to similarly rated guys before him. Maybe he's undervalued as a recruit, which would be great. But there's a reason he's not a top 50 recruit. It would be unprecedented, for him to contribute significantly on a winning team. Can he contribute in spots, yes. I'm simply saying, if he's expected to log heavy minutes, we're in trouble. If he's playing 8-12 minutes, I think that's about right.
 



The SF Rock

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View attachment 25394

Screenshot. Also, providing stats isn't being biased, it's literal fact.
skiumah1 explained the drop from 87 to 233 in post #52. It was solely based up jumping up a class. Not on a change in talent level. My post said “as a junior” which is totally accurate and stands opposed to your attempt to denigrate a Gopher player. A true freshman that is your target of negativity. Irrational hate for a diversity hire projected onto a very talented and dedicated 18 year old who has a year under his belt neutralizing Battle in practice. If you want to say he has hurt the team doing so have at it. It is player development of Betts going up against a 21-22 stud in practice.
View attachment 25394

Screenshot. Also, providing stats isn't being biased, it's literal fact.
It was misleading and either ignorant or dishonest.
 
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bga1

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I'm not talking about all that. I'm simply taking into account how he is perceived from a talent standpoint. How talented is he overall, compared to similarly rated guys before him. Maybe he's undervalued as a recruit, which would be great. But there's a reason he's not a top 50 recruit. It would be unprecedented, for him to contribute significantly on a winning team. Can he contribute in spots, yes. I'm simply saying, if he's expected to log heavy minutes, we're in trouble. If he's playing 8-12 minutes, I think that's about right.
How do you feel about Payne?
 

MNVCGUY

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I'm not talking about all that. I'm simply taking into account how he is perceived from a talent standpoint. How talented is he overall, compared to similarly rated guys before him. Maybe he's undervalued as a recruit, which would be great. But there's a reason he's not a top 50 recruit. It would be unprecedented, for him to contribute significantly on a winning team. Can he contribute in spots, yes. I'm simply saying, if he's expected to log heavy minutes, we're in trouble. If he's playing 8-12 minutes, I think that's about right.
Overall I don't think we are that far off in a lot of ways. If we need Betts to be a star that is not a good thing for 23-24, but as a part of the rotation it is entirely possible he can be a solid piece for us.

And not to get too far into the weeds in terms of the player comps....to really make that more accurate you would need to look at more than just the other players ranked #233. You would need to look at their second years and you would need to look at a much wider range of players because recruiting rankings....especially once you get beyond the top guys....are super subjective.
 

GopherPlaya

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I'm only comparing them based on where he ranks and what to expect in terms of contributing. That's it. You can expect him to be a double digit scorer, and that would be awesome if he was. I'm tempering my expectations based on how guys have performed who have been rated as such. It's not like he was a top 50 recruit.
My point is you can’t make a prediction on production based on rankings. There are guys ranked lower than 4/ 5 stars who produced better as freshmen at times. It’s about fit and how are they being used. Do I think Betts will be a top 3 scorer on the team? No, but I can see him averaging 6-8 a game. He’s a really good shooter. I think he will surprise some people
 



Gophers7633

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How do you feel about Payne?

Payne was productive as a FR, but on a shitty team. I think he's limited, but can be a good B1G caliber player. I don't think he's nearly as talented as someone like Oturu, but by the time he's a SR, hopefully he can be a All-B1G selection(1st, 2nd, or 3rd team).
 

bga1

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Payne was productive as a FR, but on a shitty team. I think he's limited, but can be a good B1G caliber player. I don't think he's nearly as talented as someone like Oturu, but by the time he's a SR, hopefully he can be a All-B1G selection(1st, 2nd, or 3rd team).
Ok. Go refill your glass. It's empty.
 


Gophers7633

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Overall I don't think we are that far off in a lot of ways. If we need Betts to be a star that is not a good thing for 23-24, but as a part of the rotation it is entirely possible he can be a solid piece for us.

And not to get too far into the weeds in terms of the player comps....to really make that more accurate you would need to look at more than just the other players ranked #233. You would need to look at their second years and you would need to look at a much wider range of players because recruiting rankings....especially once you get beyond the top guys....are super subjective.

Agree with this. Were not far off. I think if he's logging heavy minutes, whether because of injury, or guys didn't make a leap in development that's an issue. If he's avg 8-12 minutes, I think this about right.

As for those other players comps, 3 of those 5 ended up transferring, one never player D1, and the player most productive played in the Missouri Valley, and had a good career there. Scoring over 1,400 points.
 

Gophers7633

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Ok. Go refill your glass. It's empty.

What are your expectations for him then? You think he's better than Oturu? You think he can make an All-B1G team his SO or JR year? I'll gladly admit if I'm wrong.
 

Gophers7633

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My point is you can’t make a prediction on production based on rankings. There are guys ranked lower than 4/ 5 stars who produced better as freshmen at times. It’s about fit and how are they being used. Do I think Betts will be a top 3 scorer on the team? No, but I can see him averaging 6-8 a game. He’s a really good shooter. I think he will surprise some people

I'm not saying he's going to produce similarly to what the guys did before him. I'm just saying if he's heavily relied upon this season, I think we're in trouble. I hope he proves me wrong, and can be a contributor on a winning team. I'd say if he's avg 8-12 minutes that's probably about right.
 

bga1

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What are your expectations for him then? You think he's better than Oturu? You think he can make an All-B1G team his SO or JR year? I'll gladly admit if I'm wrong.
As a junior he was way below Oturu but his development has been fast. He really popped as a recruit as a senior and you could see the changes in his game during the year. I think he can be as good or better than Oturu long term- yes. I doubt he will pick up Oturu's range this year but again, his development timeline has been quick so I do expect him to be effective a little further from the basket this year. Can he make one of the All Big Ten teams this year? Sure. He was hurt by being on a bad team last year because the guards were bad- I think we all agree on that. Battle was a one on one guy - a shot chucker who didn't make others better. I think Payne will get some nice help from Mitchell, Hawkins and others this year.
 

Gophers7633

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As a junior he was way below Oturu but his development has been fast. He really popped as a recruit as a senior and you could see the changes in his game during the year. I think he can be as good or better than Oturu long term- yes. I doubt he will pick up Oturu's range this year but again, his development timeline has been quick so I do expect him to be effective a little further from the basket this year. Can he make one of the All Big Ten teams this year? Sure. He was hurt by being on a bad team last year because the guards were bad- I think we all agree on that. Battle was a one on one guy - a shot chucker who didn't make others better. I think Payne will get some nice help from Mitchell, Hawkins and others this year.

Hope you're right. I'm not there yet. Oturu avg 20 and 11 as a SO on a decent team. Shot 37% from 3 and 71% from the FT line. I'd be pretty stunned if he came close to them. But I do expect improvement.
 


GopherPlaya

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Hope you're right. I'm not there yet. Oturu avg 20 and 11 as a SO on a decent team. Shot 37% from 3 and 71% from the FT line. I'd be pretty stunned if he came close to them. But I do expect improvement.
No one here is expecting Betts to be some starter or star
 




GopherWeatherGuy

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Hope you're right. I'm not there yet. Oturu avg 20 and 11 as a SO on a decent team. Shot 37% from 3 and 71% from the FT line. I'd be pretty stunned if he came close to them. But I do expect improvement.

People are underestimating what it takes to be an All Big Ten player. Oturu was far and away better than Payne as a FR, and he wasn't even All Big Ten as a freshman. Then Oturu put up those huge numbers on a good team as a SO and he was still only All Big Ten 2nd team.

Payne will likely be a solid B1G F/C, but the odds that he ever puts up the numbers over a season that Oturu did his SO season are extremely slim.
 


GopherPlaya

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People are underestimating what it takes to be an All Big Ten player. Oturu was far and away better than Payne as a FR, and he wasn't even All Big Ten as a freshman. Then Oturu put up those huge numbers on a good team as a SO and he was still only All Big Ten 2nd team.

Payne will likely be a solid B1G F/C, but the odds that he ever puts up the numbers over a season that Oturu did his SO season are extremely slim.
Oturo wasn’t on a good team as a sophomore. Who is predicting that Payne will average 20 & 11? I do think with an increase in min 15 & 8 is very reasonable
 





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