Crawford: Big Ten win total projections for 2019 season (Minnesota Over/Under: 6)

[hello-world]

We have 37 of 44 players returning from our 2 deeps on a team that destroyed the Boilers last year.

If anybody picks Purdue ahead of us, I'll be very interested to hear their reasoning.

I'm not an expert, but I think their reasoning might be this:
Minnesota is returning 37 of 44 players that lost to Maryland 42 to 13

 

[RememberMurray]

I'm not an expert, but I think their reasoning might be this:
Minnesota is returning 37 of 44 players that lost to Maryland 42 to 13

I know you're joking around (at least a little), but I think you're 100% correct about the reasoning behind the prediction. This team was, in fact, blown out by teams like Maryland, Nebraska and Illinois — and those are squads that didn't impress anybody last year. In an era when almost everybody goes bowling, the Terrapins, Huskers and Illini stayed home. So, you're right; you have to take those horrific loses into account when appraising the Gophers.

However, when I look at the 2019 Minnesota group (through my spiffy maroon and gold glasses) I see a team that has made some big changes, and made them precisely because of those disastrous losses to also-rans.

The 2018 Gophers — after the 'adjustments' were made — appeared to be a different bunch altogether.

 

[PMWinSTP]

I know you're joking around (at least a little), but I think you're 100% correct about the reasoning behind the prediction. This team was, in fact, blown out by teams like Maryland, Nebraska and Illinois — and those are squads that didn't impress anybody last year. In an era when almost everybody goes bowling, the Terrapins, Huskers and Illini stayed home. So, you're right; you have to take those horrific loses into account when appraising the Gophers.

However, when I look at the 2019 Minnesota group (through my spiffy maroon and gold glasses) I see a team that has made some big changes, and made them precisely because of those disastrous losses to also-rans.

The 2018 Gophers — after the 'adjustments' were made — appeared to be a different bunch altogether.

The MD game was the first game many thought something was amiss with the defense.

 

[die hard gopher]

Going to say it all year, leading up to the season: I'll take 7-5, as a baby step improvement, on the way to bigger and better things.

Gophers won 7 games last year. 7 wins would not be an improvement this year unless it was 7 plus a bowl win which in that case would be 8 wins.

 

[RickDornsby]

Gophers won 7 games last year. 7 wins would not be an improvement this year unless it was 7 plus a bowl win which in that case would be 8 wins.

I don’t think Vegas lines include bowl games or conference title games nor does the original article.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

The MD game was the first game many thought something was amiss with the defense.

It was no great shakes vs Michigan , WI in 2017. I believe Michigan ran for around 350 which is the signature sign of being prostrate and spread eagled.

 

[PMWinSTP]

It was no great shakes vs Michigan , WI in 2017. I believe Michigan ran for around 350 which is the signature sign of being prostrate and spread eagled.

Very true. I kind of wrote off those last two games (NW ran for close to 300) but forgot about Mich...couple painfully long runs in that game too. They were so conservative on both sides of the ball in 2017.

RSmith sure had a lot of people buffaloed.

 

[gophernewbie]

Parlay

Careful. 9 big10 wins plus conference championship is 10.

 

[Some Day...Maybe]

9-3. 6-3.


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[Otis]

Those last 4 conference games look like a meat grinder!

But no OSU, Michigan or MSU doesn't happen very often. I hope we take advantage.

 

[caliGopher]

We have 37 of 44 players returning from our 2 deeps on a team that destroyed the Boilers last year.

If anybody picks Purdue ahead of us, I'll be very interested to hear their reasoning.

Because the game is @Pudue, won’t be in a frigid downpour, and take a look at Rossi’s history if replacing Smith.

Not saying it will happen, but the weather in last years game had more to do with the outcome than anything else.


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[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Because the game is @Pudue, won’t be in a frigid downpour, and take a look at Rossi’s history if replacing Smith.

Not saying it will happen, but the weather in last years game had more to do with the outcome than anything else.


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I think us being more prepared and better at football had a lot to do with it.

 

[Gophers_4life]

But no OSU, Michigan or MSU doesn't happen very often. I hope we take advantage.

I’m sure that’s true, but we have Penn St, which is just as bad. Now if we had Maryland, Rutgers, and Indiana, that would be amazing.

 

[caliGopher]

I think us being more prepared and better at football had a lot to do with it.

I'll give you better prepared. Brohm and Purdue looked like they did not want to be there that night. The didn't show up and we took advantage.

Better at football? Big 10 common opponents:

Iowa
Minnesota: lost by 10
Purdue: won by 2

Illinois
Minnesota: lost by 24
Purdue: won by 39

Indiana
Minnesota: won by 7
Purdue: won by 7

Nebraska
Minnesota: lost by 25
Purdue: won by 4

Northwestern
Minnesota: lost by 10
Purdue: lost by 4

Ohio State
Minnesota: lost by 16
Purdue: won by 29

Wisconsin
Minnesota: won by 22
Purdue: lost by 3


They won 5 conf. games, we won 3. I would argue that our victory over them was far better than their victories over Illinois and Nebraska. I would also argue that their blowout victory over Ohio State was better than our "playing Ohio State tough through three quarters". I would not equate our victory over Wisconsin (8-5) as on par with their victory over Ohio State (13-1), although I'm still happy about finally beating Wisconsin again.

Against common opponents they won 5 we won 2. Head to head we beat them so that gives us bragging rights. We did not sh!t the bed against a NC foe, they did.

They're clearly not ready for prime time, but neither are we. While our bowl game looked better than theirs, I'm thankful we didn't play Auburn, and played Georgia Tech instead.

 

[RememberMurray]

I'll give you better prepared. Brohm and Purdue looked like they did not want to be there that night. The didn't show up and we took advantage.

Better at football? Big 10 common opponents:

Iowa
Minnesota: lost by 10
Purdue: won by 2

Illinois
Minnesota: lost by 24
Purdue: won by 39

Indiana
Minnesota: won by 7
Purdue: won by 7

Nebraska
Minnesota: lost by 25
Purdue: won by 4

Northwestern
Minnesota: lost by 10
Purdue: lost by 4

Ohio State
Minnesota: lost by 16
Purdue: won by 29

Wisconsin
Minnesota: won by 22
Purdue: lost by 3


They won 5 conf. games, we won 3. I would argue that our victory over them was far better than their victories over Illinois and Nebraska. I would also argue that their blowout victory over Ohio State was better than our "playing Ohio State tough through three quarters". I would not equate our victory over Wisconsin (8-5) as on par with their victory over Ohio State (13-1), although I'm still happy about finally beating Wisconsin again.

Against common opponents they won 5 we won 2. Head to head we beat them so that gives us bragging rights. We did not sh!t the bed against a NC foe, they did.

They're clearly not ready for prime time, but neither are we. While our bowl game looked better than theirs, I'm thankful we didn't play Auburn, and played Georgia Tech instead.

Ahhhh, yes. The old "they didn't want to be there" argument rears its head again. See Georgia Tech in Detroit for another example.

And then there's the "weather" excuse. Too cold and icky for the mighty Boilers, apparently.

Is the weather in West Lafayette really that much warmer/better than the weather in Minneapolis? Is West Lafayette sort of like Miami-in-the-Midwest? I don't know; I've never been to the Purdue campus.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Ahhhh, yes. The old "they didn't want to be there" argument rears its head again. See Georgia Tech in Detroit for another example.

And then there's the "weather" excuse. Too cold and icky for the mighty Boilers, apparently.

Is the weather in West Lafayette really that much warmer/better than the weather in Minneapolis? Is West Lafayette sort of like Miami-in-the-Midwest? I don't know; I've never been to the Purdue campus.

That's an epidemic on this board. Whether it is Claeys winning 9 games, Tubby getting to round of 32, or Fleck's wins over Purdue and Georgia Tech, there always seems to be someone who wants to explain why it doesnt really count or isn't as good as it looks on paper. Let's not be afraid to claim victory when we win.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Let's not be afraid to claim victory when we win.

No one is looking backwards and saying they weren’t wins. The problem is always this: looking forwards. People have been burned way too many times by getting their hopes up on the Gophers. And when your hopes are highest, seems to be when they burn you the most. So you learn after a while. You rationalize, and you starting thinking “how are they going to burn us this time, and why might that be the reason?”

Until proven otherwise, you don’t have a valid reason to chastise those folks. History says so.

 

[Schnauzer]

I have been loosely following this thread. The title annoys me. Just because the season ended pretty well for the Gophers doesn't mean they need to be projected into the Rose Bowl next year but when you take a team that was noted to have freshmen and other underclassmen all over the place yet they improve and achieve 7 wins, while returning starters all over the place for next year with what most describe as an easier schedule - it is indeed annoying to see someone suggest they will produce the same regular season win total. I would be flat out sad if the Gophers went 6-6 next year.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

That's an epidemic on this board. Whether it is Claeys winning 9 games, Tubby getting to round of 32, or Fleck's wins over Purdue and Georgia Tech, there always seems to be someone who wants to explain why it doesnt really count or isn't as good as it looks on paper. Let's not be afraid to claim victory when we win.

2 out of the 3 examples I gave, we fired the coach before finding out what happened after their best season here. The third example was last year, so we dont know how it will pan out. In other words, none of the three examples were shown to be fools gold.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

I have been loosely following this thread. The title annoys me. Just because the season ended pretty well for the Gophers doesn't mean they need to be projected into the Rose Bowl next year but when you take a team that was noted to have freshmen and other underclassmen all over the place yet they improve and achieve 7 wins, while returning starters all over the place for next year with what most describe as an easier schedule - it is indeed annoying to see someone suggest they will produce the same regular season win total. I would be flat out sad if the Gophers went 6-6 next year.

But, I think the point is this:

the over/under at 6 is not how Gopher fans see the team. It's how outside sources see the team. and, to be honest, a lot of these pre-season mags and predictions are based on minimal research and evidence. some 'expert' looks at last year's scores, maybe checks a list of graduated seniors, and throws a number out there. I've seen a lot of the preview mags in the past that were factually incorrect, or clearly did not follow player movement/ transfers, etc.

I agree with you. On paper, the Gophers should be better than a 6-win team. but to an outside 'unbiased' observer, they look at the scores, including some bad losses last year, and come up with a number. I'll bet that some of the predictors don't know about the change in Def Coordinators, or some of the injury issues. they're just looking at the w/l record and doing a 5-minute google search on "Gopher Football."

 

[RememberMurray]

But, I think the point is this:

the over/under at 6 is not how Gopher fans see the team. It's how outside sources see the team. and, to be honest, a lot of these pre-season mags and predictions are based on minimal research and evidence. some 'expert' looks at last year's scores, maybe checks a list of graduated seniors, and throws a number out there. I've seen a lot of the preview mags in the past that were factually incorrect, or clearly did not follow player movement/ transfers, etc.

I agree with you. On paper, the Gophers should be better than a 6-win team. but to an outside 'unbiased' observer, they look at the scores, including some bad losses last year, and come up with a number. I'll bet that some of the predictors don't know about the change in Def Coordinators, or some of the injury issues. they're just looking at the w/l record and doing a 5-minute google search on "Gopher Football."

Spot on.

 

[RememberMurray]

No one is looking backwards and saying they weren’t wins. The problem is always this: looking forwards. People have been burned way too many times by getting their hopes up on the Gophers. And when your hopes are highest, seems to be when they burn you the most. So you learn after a while. You rationalize, and you starting thinking “how are they going to burn us this time, and why might that be the reason?”

Until proven otherwise, you don’t have a valid reason to chastise those folks. History says so.

I respectfully disagree. I don't understand this way of thinking at all.

"If I never get my hopes up, I'll never feel disappointment" is a true enough statement, but it seems like a really gray, sad philosophy to follow in life! Every day is the same: all is white, all is vanilla. There are never any ups, and no downs. It's strictly Flat Line City.

Also, I have to ask about the phrase "getting burned". What does that even mean?

 

[Lakeville Goldy]

That's an epidemic on this board. Whether it is Claeys winning 9 games, Tubby getting to round of 32, or Fleck's wins over Purdue and Georgia Tech, there always seems to be someone who wants to explain why it doesnt really count or isn't as good as it looks on paper. Let's not be afraid to claim victory when we win.

But I think part of it is a lot of times the really good wins have ended up not being indicative of what was going to happen the following year, but same could be said for the really bad losses.

But, I think the point is this:

the over/under at 6 is not how Gopher fans see the team. It's how outside sources see the team. and, to be honest, a lot of these pre-season mags and predictions are based on minimal research and evidence. some 'expert' looks at last year's scores, maybe checks a list of graduated seniors, and throws a number out there. I've seen a lot of the preview mags in the past that were factually incorrect, or clearly did not follow player movement/ transfers, etc.

I agree with you. On paper, the Gophers should be better than a 6-win team. but to an outside 'unbiased' observer, they look at the scores, including some bad losses last year, and come up with a number. I'll bet that some of the predictors don't know about the change in Def Coordinators, or some of the injury issues. they're just looking at the w/l record and doing a 5-minute google search on "Gopher Football."

I mostly agree with you. I was really impressed with what Rossi did with the defense once he took over, but looking at it from the outside, you have a guy that is a disciple of the guy you fired taking over. Yes, his wins against WI and PU were great, but why would an outside guy think that a loss like IL or NE couldn't happen again next year?

That said, I'm still a little surprised it wasn't 7 wins. Even as an outsider with the simplest Google search you'd see the Gophers had the youngest team in America last year (I think that was said once?), now it is a more experienced team, so that should be a help. Plus, in theory they should have an easier schedule, which should help. So I can see why they didn't say 12 wins and a B1G championship, but 6 seems like he just ignored even the most basic facts about the team, not even getting into the DC situation or some of the other players they are getting back.

 

[caliGopher]

That's an epidemic on this board. Whether it is Claeys winning 9 games, Tubby getting to round of 32, or Fleck's wins over Purdue and Georgia Tech, there always seems to be someone who wants to explain why it doesnt really count or isn't as good as it looks on paper. Let's not be afraid to claim victory when we win.

No where did I say it didn’t count. But to look at the season both teams had to say Minnesota is better hands down than Purdue is not supported by the results of the season. That’s all. Jump to whatever conclusions you want to. Never said it didn’t count.

It was a good game by the Gophers, but does not change the fact of why Purdue might be given a higher win total for next year than the Gophers.


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[RememberMurray]

No where did I say it didn’t count. But to look at the season both teams had to say Minnesota is better hands down than Purdue is not supported by the results of the season. That’s all. Jump to whatever conclusions you want to. Never said it didn’t count.

It was a good game by the Gophers, but does not change the fact of why Purdue might be given a higher win total for next year than the Gophers.


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It all depends on how important head-to-head meetings are when judging. Maybe you prefer to judge via other factors.

I thought the Minnesota-Purdue game was pretty decisive. But then, I'm a homer and I might have missed all the subtle, nuanced signs that Purdue is actually the superior team.

Hey, the weather was bad. And maybe the Boilers just 'didn't want to be there'.

 

[gopherfan007]

per Crawford:

Minnesota
2019 projected win total (over-under): 6

247Sports take: Coming off a 7-6 season and bowl victory, the Gophers look to take the next step during P.J. Fleck's third campaign. Minnesota's over-under win total projection is one of the most difficult in the conference considering November is littered with matchups against teams likely ranked inside the Top 25. This could be a hot start, late fizzle scenario for the Gophers this fall.

https://247sports.com/LongFormArtic...-Ohio-State-Penn-State-129765477/#129765477_2

Go Gophers!!

Over, with the weaker schedule in the Big ten i could maybe see 7 or 8