Crawford: Big Ten win total projections for 2019 season (Minnesota Over/Under: 6)

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RememberMurray said:
Well, let's look at that. Here's the conference schedule, with last season's records:

@ Purdue (6-7)

Illinois (4-8)

Nebraska (4-8)

@ Rutgers (1-11)

Maryland (5-7)

BYE

Penn State (9-4)

@ Iowa (9-4)

@ Northwestern (9-5)

Wisconsin (8-5)

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I don't know. 6 conference wins seem pretty doable to my eyes. I mean, it is really as favorable a schedule as you are likely to get playing in the B1G. Heck, if the advance betting lines were set right now I think we'd be likely favorites in the first 5 games! Then win one of the last 4, and, there you are with 6 conference wins.

I know, I know... we haven't won 6 conference games in a long time. Blah, blah, blah.

But we say we want to be elite. We say we shouldn't be afraid to be legends. Okay, then; if those are the goals, then at some point, eventually, you have to actually step up and seize the day! This schedule is a golden opportunity to do just that.

Are we going to do that? It would be a shame not to, in my opinion.
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As exactly the same as in the past two years ..... it's a matter of taking care of business against the "middle" of the conference schedule.

Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, and because for some reason they love to keep scheduling use to play them, Maryland.


You win those four, and it gives you a fighting chance. The three upper games in the West are always tough for us, Wisc, Iowa, and NW. And then the remaining two East games always seem to have one elite team (Mich, then Ohio St, now Penn St), but the other game has gone from hard (Mich St), to middle (Indiana), to east (Rutgers).
 

As far as PJ leaving.

He gets paid enough here to live like a king. If he wins, he can be a king, in this town. Yeah the weather isn't the greatest, but he's all over the country during the year recruiting, giving talks, living the life, anyway.

I don't think it would be about money, for him. I think it would be about the challenge, and seeing if he can take his way of doing things to the very top and win it all. And I think he would only entertain that after he was satisfied with the rebuilding effort he accomplished here.

But I could be way off too.
 

RememberMurray said:
Well, let's look at that. Here's the conference schedule, with last season's records:

@ Purdue (6-7) I don’t know what to think here - should be a possible W

Illinois (4-8). Should be a W, but IL slowly improving

Nebraska (4-8). Better than their record, elite QB

@ Rutgers (1-11). Better be a W. Terrible QB.

Maryland (5-7). New coach, year zero. Can’t be very good - should be a W

BYE

Penn State (9-4). New QB, some turnover. Will be a tough but winnable game

@ Iowa (9-4). Rubber hits the road. Can PJ win in Iowa City vs his nemesis Little Kirk?

@ Northwestern (9-5). Always a tough out. Flip a coin.

Wisconsin (8-5). I smell blood in the water. Going to predict a W here with so much turnover at QB and o line and a suddenly mortal defense. W.

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I don't know. 6 conference wins seem pretty doable to my eyes. I mean, it is really as favorable a schedule as you are likely to get playing in the B1G. Heck, if the advance betting lines were set right now I think we'd be likely favorites in the first 5 games! Then win one of the last 4, and, there you are with 6 conference wins.

I know, I know... we haven't won 6 conference games in a long time. Blah, blah, blah.

But we say we want to be elite. We say we shouldn't be afraid to be legends. Okay, then; if those are the goals, then at some point, eventually, you have to actually step up and seize the day! This schedule is a golden opportunity to do just that.

Are we going to do that? It would be a shame not to, in my opinion.
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My thoughts in bold. It’s always hard to win in the Big Ten. If PJ can deliver 4+ Big Ten wins the team is on the right track. Must defeat Wisconsin while they’re down.
 

Gophers_4life said:
As far as PJ leaving.

He gets paid enough here to live like a king. If he wins, he can be a king, in this town. Yeah the weather isn't the greatest, but he's all over the country during the year recruiting, giving talks, living the life, anyway.

I don't think it would be about money, for him. I think it would be about the challenge, and seeing if he can take his way of doing things to the very top and win it all. And I think he would only entertain that after he was satisfied with the rebuilding effort he accomplished here.

But I could be way off too.
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It would have to be a step up from a B1G coaching job at Minnesota. He wouldn't make a lateral move. Why on earth would he?

So the question is: which jobs are likely to be open that Fleck would consider a move up?
 
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Pompous Elitist said:
My thoughts in bold. It’s always hard to win in the Big Ten. If PJ can deliver 4+ Big Ten wins the team is on the right track. Must defeat Wisconsin while they’re down.
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I think there's sometimes confusion on this board between predictions and expectations. Heck, maybe I'm the one who is confused.

I think it's analogous to this: If I have a wayward kid who is always screwing up, I can and would make it abundantly clear to him or her that I have higher expectations for them. That's not the same thing as me making a prediction that they will change their ways.

For Gopher football, I'm talking more about expectations in 2019, rather than predictions. Are we okay with the program remaining pretty much as it has always been, or do we now have higher expectations? Not predictions, but expectations?

And for the record, in my opinion a one win improvement over 2018 doesn't seem to me to be much of an expectation. Not with the schedule we have this season. I'd be very disappointed if Fleck himself was thinking along the lines of an incremental improvement.
 
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RememberMurray said:
I think there's sometimes confusion on this board between predictions and expectations. Heck, maybe I'm the one who is confused.

I think it's analogous to this: If I have a wayward kid who is always screwing up, I can and would make it abundantly clear to him or her that I have higher expectations for them. That's not the same thing as me making a prediction that they will change their ways.

For Gopher football, I'm talking more about expectations in 2019, rather than predictions. Are we okay with the program remaining pretty much as it has always been, or do we now have higher expectations? Not predictions, but expectations?

And for the record, in my opinion a one win improvement over 2018 doesn't seem to me to be much of an expectation. Not with the schedule we have this season. I'd be very disappointed if Fleck himself was thinking along the lines of an incremental improvement.
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Expecting is analogous with taking for granted in my vocabulary... I predict 8+, if we stay healthy and get a bounce or two along the way... I believe we could go undefeated or something very close to it... The only thing I expect is for the program to reflect positively on the institution where I received most of my post secondary education.
 

PoockItInfor6 said:
Expecting is analogous with taking for granted in my vocabulary... I predict 8+, if we stay healthy and get a bounce or two along the way... I believe we could go undefeated or something very close to it... The only thing I expect is for the program to reflect positively on the institution where I received most of my post secondary education.
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Your expectations are your business, but that's a really low bar in my opinion.

People always talk about Minnesota being mediocre or worse "for 50 years".

Maybe one reason we haven't seen much from this program "in 50 years" is that we never raise our own expectations.

I doubt that a program that aims to "reflect positively on the institution" is going to be assured of building a fan base. In order to do that, you really have to win more football games.

What does "elite" mean, anyway?
 

I expect to make predictions

I predict I will have expectations

I project I will start a new project this week
 

RememberMurray said:
Your expectations are your business, but that's a really low bar in my opinion.

People always talk about Minnesota being mediocre or worse "for 50 years".

Maybe one reason we haven't seen much from this program "in 50 years" is that we never raise our own expectations.

I doubt that a program that aims to "reflect positively on the institution" is going to be assured of building a fan base. In order to do that, you really have to win more football games.

What does "elite" mean, anyway?
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I would be disappointed with less wins than my prediction. That does not mean I just take wins for granted though... I savor every one.
 



PhillyGopher said:
I expect to make predictions

I predict I will have expectations

I project I will start a new project this week
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I have high expectations for your project.

Sent from my phone using Tapatalk
 

Word said:
I have high expectations for your project.

Sent from my phone using Tapatalk
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Sounds like a prediction.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

My expectation and prediction is the team won’t get their butts bounced off the field like the last 2 years. How’s that.
 




Obvious statement here, but I think it totally depends on how healthy we are. We need Winfield Jr healthy and playing at an uber elite level. If we don't suffer any season ending injuries to our very best players we can be a 9-11 win team. I know this is stating the obvious, but it is crucial we have an above normal healthy roster in order to make some serious waves in the BIG West.
 

Gold Rush said:
If the Gophers win 6 conference games this year and finish 9-3 you can expect PJ Fleck's phone will be ringing.
One of the big boys will be calling - guaranteed.

What we need is a good coach who will stick around and build this program, one who wants to stay and will say no when the big boys call. This is how Barry Alvarez built the Wisconsin program and how Hayden Fry/Kirk Ferentz built the Iowa program.

Is PJ Fleck going to be that guy here? Maybe. For one he has to achieve that initial burst of success to draw the attention but that just might happen in the next few years, possibly even after this one. He seems happy here and is in a good spot but I can imagine if Georgia, Texas or USC call with an outrageous package it might be tough to say no.

Hopefully he is successful here and sticks around for a long time - he has a good shot at being very successful here if he chooses to stay.
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I can't really see PJ in the SEC... he seems like the perfect coach for a Midwest team... Maybe USC, but it's not like Minnesota is a bad fit.
 

The change in sentiment is interesting to me in that less than 2 years ago a horrific drop off from 2016 was ok because it was year 1 and now some are expecting, not hoping, for 9+ wins. This, despite recent program history, a talent deficit, and a surging Big Ten west (outside of Wisconsin).

I hope for 9+ wins but I would never expect that based on the current roster and recruiting, coaching turnover, opponent improvements, etc. I find I enjoy sports more with an underdog outlook. The Big Ten slate is not easy. Like the coaches before him PJ will likely need to build slowly and/or hope for a confluence or favorable roster chemistry/run of luck on the field like Wisconsin under Alvarez in his early years, and use that as a springboard to build recruiting.
 

I think if he has the 9-12 win season we’re hoping for... the core of this team will still be together for a couple of years so there would be no point in leaving what would likely be a top 20 type team going into next year. I also think legacy and building something special is part of PJs core fabric, so I’m not too worried he leaves.
 




Gophers should win 7 games next year. I'm not sure who but losses at home against Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Penn State would not surprise me. Road losses at Iowa, Northwestern, and Purdue would not surprise. There seems to be a lot of faith that the schedule is easier next year. I don't share that opinion. The "promise" of the schedule being easier is one I'll accept.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Correct. I realized it and agreed in a subsequent post.
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I was told that 8 wins should be the expectation by many on here. Should be a lot of wagers placed on this one. I said expectation was the wrong word.
 


btowngopher said:
I was told that 8 wins should be the expectation by many on here. Should be a lot of wagers placed on this one. I said expectation was the wrong word.
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Not sure your point here. I merely agreed I was incorrect in thinking the article was about conference wins.
 

Urbandale said:
I think I would find great enjoyment if the Gophers were overwhelming favorites.
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That’s interesting because many fans seem to despise games vs G5 or more peer-level Big Ten teams and get excited for games we are usually dogs in (I totally disagree with the sentiment).
 



Bring back the Axe said:
There's a 0% chance that Vegas posts a higher win total for Purdue than the Gophers.
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We have 37 of 44 players returning from our 2 deeps on a team that destroyed the Boilers last year.

If anybody picks Purdue ahead of us, I'll be very interested to hear their reasoning.
 

Lakeville Goldy said:
From an outside perspective, I sort of get this, but it still seems like 7 would be the over/under (or 6.5). I mean, if you don't do the research into the DC situation and how that changed the team, they just look like an inconsistent team that any given week could beat the best teams and/or lose to the worst teams. But seeing how that changed the defense, knowing the amount of players that are coming back, I would think you would assume they should improve on last year's record, meaning at least 7 (this does not include Bowl games).

As someone maybe more knowledgeable on the Gophers, I think I'd set it at 8 wins. I think you can easily see scenarios that more or less than 8 happens.

I am not sure the Gophers are the toughest to pick to me. Nebraska, Purdue, MI State and Wisconsin I think are all tough to pick this year.
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In case nobody has pointed this out to you yet, 6 conference wins, means the Gophers would be on pace for like an 8.5 win total, pretty hard to believe, but exciting nonetheless.
 

RememberMurray said:
We have 37 of 44 players returning from our 2 deeps on a team that destroyed the Boilers last year.

If anybody picks Purdue ahead of us, I'll be very interested to hear their reasoning.
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I do not have an in depth knowledge of what Purdue has coming back but that’s not how projections work.
 

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