Conference Realignment Updates

[PMWinSTP]

Perhaps some kind of intangible benefit but certainly not financial - that's why they are flying their softball team to the opposite coast for athletic contests.

Could you tell me more as to why you think this? It is the 13th largest metro area in the US.

 

[WAGopher]

Could you tell me more as to why you think this? It is the 13th largest metro area in the US.

For 2025 Nielsen ranks the San Francisco Bay Area as the 10th largest media market. I think the B1G would take Stanford with Notre Dame, but not Cal too. And I think Cal and Stanford want to remain a pair as they are tied by academics, sports and somewhat socially.

 

[MaxyJR1]

You guys, after the next realignment, the playoff will be Big Ten vs. SEC. It'll be the NFL model. 6 or 8 teams from each conference make the playoff. The conference champions play for the natty.

The writing is clearly on the wall. The Big 12 and ACC schools, along with Notre Dame, are figuring out how to get accepted by either the Big Ten or SEC.

The leftovers will be completely left out. They won't have the money to compete or pay players like the Big Ten and SEC.

I actually think the SEC and Big Ten will stop at 20, not 24 teams. The ACC and Big 12 don't have enough schools that grow the pie for the rest of the conference.

The Big Ten will take Norte Dame and one of Miami, FSU, or UNC. The hardest pick of those 3 would be UNC due to state politics with their universities. I suppose you could look at SMU, Houston, and GT, but some of those schools will head to the SEC. To get to 24 you'd add Norte Dame, plus 5 of the other 6. Plausible because of their markets and their need to join a Power 2 conference but unlikely to get 6 of those 7.

They won't add just to add. They'll want helmet schools, big markets, and schools where the conference doesn't have a flag planted like Texas and Florida in order to grow the pie and per school payout.

You play your full division, another division, plus the same place teams that finished in your school's position the previous year. That's an 11 game conference schedule. The division winners plus 2 wildcards go to the Big Ten playoff. The winner plays the SEC champ for the natty.

That hypothetical conference with 11 conference game seasons and a full slate of Big Ten playoff games would probably be worth at least $3 billion per year by the next agreement. That's $150 million per school at 20 teams.

I saw a model where the B1G was 24 and SEC 20, so 44 teams in the Super League.

IIRC
Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Cal in the BIG
Clemson, FSU, North Carolina and Kansas in the SEC

 

[TruthSeeker]

I saw a model where the B1G was 24 and SEC 20, so 44 teams in the Super League.

IIRC
Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Cal in the BIG
Clemson, FSU, North Carolina and Kansas in the SEC

If it's all about money, that won't happen. Cal is a money drain to everyone else. Plus, that's 23 Big Ten teams. Houston and SMU would be interesting because that gets the Big Ten into Texas in huge metros.

I wouldn't personally be against it, but I doubt that'd happen.

 

[MaxyJR1]

If it's all about money, that won't happen. Cal is a money drain to everyone else. Plus, that's 23 Big Ten teams. Houston and SMU would be interesting because that gets the Big Ten into Texas in huge metros.

I wouldn't personally be against it, but I doubt that'd happen.

Might have been Cal and Stanford.

 

[swede2]

Could you tell me more as to why you think this? It is the 13th largest metro area in the US.

Nobody turns on the TV for Stanford. If there was value for either Stanford or Cal Berkley, they would be B1G now. Instead they had to beg into the ACC.

 

[mngolf]

Nobody turns on the TV for Stanford. If there was value for either Stanford or Cal Berkley, they would be B1G now. Instead they had to beg into the ACC.

Even the B12 didn't want them.

 

[Goldmember]

Everyone assumes the evolution will continue until it is finally the Power Two. But we’re already there. That already happened. None of the schools we’re still talking about really matter.

The next realignment is going to be set in motion by Texas or Georgia leaving the SEC.

 

[Ope3]

Everyone assumes the evolution will continue until it is finally the Power Two. But we’re already there. That already happened. None of the schools we’re still talking about really matter.

The next realignment is going to be set in motion by Texas or Georgia leaving the SEC.

I think the evolution will continue until it's the Power One.

 

[Some guy]

Everyone assumes the evolution will continue until it is finally the Power Two. But we’re already there. That already happened. None of the schools we’re still talking about really matter.

The next realignment is going to be set in motion by Texas or Georgia leaving the SEC.

I don’t disagree.

I think that Texas A&M and Missouri are the most realistic targets for the big ten. But Florida or Georgia would be interesting.

If the SEC hadn’t added Texas and Oklahoma there is no doubt the big ten would’ve added Texas + one more

 

[Great Plains Gopher]

Couldn't find the original Conference realignment thread.

for what it's worth, I'm hearing some rumblings from various online types, podcasters and You Tube people that there might be developments in the ACC saga in July.

IF FSU, Clemson or other ACC schools are somehow able to break free, the big question remains where they would end up. there are differing reports/opinions on whether the B1G would take 2 more teams, or whether schools like FSU would meet the B1G's academic requirements. but, it's something to think about while we wait for Fall practice to begin.

a quick recap:

As of May 2024, the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) and Florida State University (FSU) and Clemson University are involved in multiple lawsuits over a grant of rights agreement that keeps ACC schools in a TV contract through 2036:

• FSU vs ACC
  FSU filed a lawsuit in Florida state court to prevent the ACC from leaving the conference. The ACC countersued in North Carolina court, arguing that FSU's acceptance of revenue payments under the agreement for years prevents it from challenging the validity of the withdrawal fee, which is around $572 million. The core issue of the lawsuit is whether the exit fees are so high that they are illegally anti-competitive or unconscionable.
• Clemson vs ACC
  Clemson filed a lawsuit in South Carolina state court on March 19, 2024, echoing FSU's claims. Clemson is seeking a declaration from the court that the ACC does not own the right to produce and distribute Clemson games if it leaves the conference. The ACC countersued in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, arguing that it owns Clemson's media rights until 2036, even if Clemson leaves the conference.

Anarchy! The NCAA has to go back to the Supreme Court to restore order and sanity. The most important thing is when will the B18 re-establish divisions instead of letting 18 teams swing in the breeze?

 

[Ope3]

The most important thing is when will the B18 re-establish divisions instead of letting 18 teams swing in the breeze?

When FOX-CBS-NBC-Peacock ask for it or demonstrate they would pay more to go back to Divisions.

 

[Some guy]

You don’t need divisions to have balanced scheduling
Divisions are never coming back. But scheduling groups probably will in the next round of expansion to create more internal round robins

 

[Ope3]

You don’t need divisions to have balanced scheduling
Divisions are never coming back. But scheduling groups probably will in the next round of expansion to create more internal round robins

I don't think FOX-CBS-NBC-Peacock desire that. Not sure the member institutions want/need it either.

That could change depending on whatever the CFP format morphs into.

 

[Some guy]

I don't think FOX-CBS-NBC-Peacock desire that. Not sure the member institutions want/need it either.

That could change depending on whatever the CFP format morphs into.

If it morphs into auto bids the conference is going to want it so the best teams in the conference go to the playoff rather than the luckiest schedules going to the playoff

The reasons the divisions went away was because it was routinely putting the 3-5th best team in the conference championship game instead of the 2nd

The same reasoning will cause there to be round robins so that the top teams in the conference finish with the best records.


The bigger the conference the more imbalanced the schedule becomes without round robins.
A 20 team big ten could literally have a team not play another team in the top half of the conference.

 

[Ope3]

If it morphs into auto bids the conference is going to want it so the best teams in the conference go to the playoff rather than the luckiest schedules going to the playoff

I agree, yes, a change in CFP qualification could bring a change back to some sort of Divisional or schedule pod.

The reasons the divisions went away was because it was routinely putting the 3-5th best team in the conference championship game instead of the 2nd

I think that was a reason but not the only reason.

Teams only than Michigan got sick of being saddled with having to play Ohio St every year. Several teams were sick of being saddled with having to play Ohio St & Michigan every year etc.

FOX-CBS-NBC-Peacock wanted more cross regional games.

 

[Some guy]

I agree, yes, a change in CFP qualification could bring a change back to some sort of Divisional or schedule pod.


I think that was a reason but not the only reason.

Teams only than Michigan got sick of being saddled with having to play Ohio St every year. Several teams were sick of being saddled with having to play Ohio St & Michigan every year etc.

FOX-CBS-NBC-Peacock wanted more cross regional games.

I don’t think it’ll ever go two divisions again.
There’ll be groups.

Maybe 4 groups and you fully play 2 including your own
Maybe 6 groups and you play yours, another, and then random

Grouping is also the way to get regular rotations of everyone playing everyone without a boondoggle of a schedule to organize

 

[Ope3]

I don’t think it’ll ever go two divisions again.
There’ll be groups.

Maybe 4 groups and you fully play 2 including your own
Maybe 6 groups and you play yours, another, and then random

Grouping is also the way to get regular rotations of everyone playing everyone without a boondoggle of a schedule to organize

I understand the "grouping" philosophy, but who wants to be in the same group as Michigan & Ohio St?

If it gets to 20 teams, I don't think everyone playing everyone will necessarily be a priority. So what it Minnesota plays Washington once a decade?

It depends on what FOX-CBS-NBC-Peacock wants or is willing to pay for or as you have said, how it impacts CFP qualification.

 

[MNfootballfan]

I understand the "grouping" philosophy, but who wants to be in the same group as Michigan & Ohio St?

If it gets to 20 teams, I don't think everyone playing everyone will necessarily be a priority. So what it Minnesota plays Washington once a decade?

It depends on what FOX-CBS-NBC-Peacock wants or is willing to pay for or as you have said, how it impacts CFP qualification.

Look at post #244. He had an example of a 24 team conference where you would play every team in the conference home and away in a six year period and play everyone in your regional grouping every year.

Part of what makes college football fun is playing your regional rivals - Wisconsin, Iowa, and to a more recent extent - Nebraska.

 

[Some guy]

I understand the "grouping" philosophy, but who wants to be in the same group as Michigan & Ohio St?

Probably not many! But the groups could change from year to year

If it gets to 20 teams, I don't think everyone playing everyone will necessarily be a priority. So what it Minnesota plays Washington once a decade?

If they don’t care about playing everyone your previous concern isn’t really validated

It depends on what FOX-CBS-NBC-Peacock wants or is willing to pay for or as you have said, how it impacts CFP qualification.

True. The money will matter at some point. And at some point the money doesn’t want the best teams to have the middle records because they can’t hype it as well

 

[Ope3]

Look at post #244. He had an example of a 24 team conference where you would play every team in the conference home and away in a six year period and play everyone in your regional grouping every year.

Part of what makes college football fun is playing your regional rivals - Wisconsin, Iowa, and to a more recent extent - Nebraska.

If they go to 24 teams (which I am not in favor to begin with, but my opinion doesn't count) I would be in favor of that format, as a Gopher fan.

It still doesn't explain why it's necessary, why whomever is paying for broadcast rights would want it nor necessarily the schools themselves.

I agree that playing the regional rivals (Iowa & Wisconsin) annually/constantly is desirable. That already happens. I expect it to continue.

 

[Some guy]

If they go to 24 teams (which I am not in favor to begin with, but my opinion doesn't count) I would be in favor of that format, as a Gopher fan.

It still doesn't explain why it's necessary, why whomever is paying for broadcast rights would want it nor necessarily the schools themselves.

Because the tv owners are going to want the best teams to have the best records because that’s the best product. Pretty simple


They want 10-2 penn state vs 11-1 Oregon

Not 8-4 penn state against 10-2 Oregon while 11-1 Indiana plays 9-3 Illinois because of unbalanced schedules

I agree that playing the regional rivals (Iowa & Wisconsin) annually/constantly is desirable. That already happens. I expect it to continue.

 

[Ope3]

Because the tv owners are going to want the best teams to have the best records because that’s the best product. Pretty simple


They want 10-2 penn state vs 11-1 Oregon

Not 8-4 penn state against 10-2 Oregon while 11-1 Indiana plays 9-3 Illinois because of unbalanced schedules

OK. Why didn't they want that (scheduling pods) for the current TV contract/scheduling cycle?

 

[Some guy]

OK. Why didn't they want that for the current TV contract/scheduling cycle?

They got it in this current cycle?

But they did have risk that Indiana was one upset of Ohio state away from wrecking it for them. And they got lucky the schedule broke to get Penn state the tie breaker over Indiana

And the chances of that happens goes up the bigger the conference is. Because the bigger the conference is the larger variance there is between the hardest and easiest schedule

 

[swede2]

Everyone assumes the evolution will continue until it is finally the Power Two. But we’re already there. That already happened. None of the schools we’re still talking about really matter.

The next realignment is going to be set in motion by Texas or Georgia leaving the SEC.

I think this is largely accurate. The unknown here is the value of certain ACC schools. Are any of FSU, Virginia, Clemson, GT, NC, Miami a new slice to the revenue pie or cutting the same pie into smaller pieces? Because of the ACC media and GOR, none of those schools have ever really been up for consideration in the latest rounds of expansion. At least 2 of the aforementioned schools believe they are value adders.

I think once the ACC situation shakes out in 5 years you'll see the B1G and SEC break away and say to hell with the rest.

 

[swede2]

They got it in this current cycle?

But they did have risk that Indiana was one upset of Ohio state away from wrecking it for them. And they got lucky the schedule broke to get Penn state the tie breaker over Indiana

And the chances of that happens goes up the bigger the conference is. Because the bigger the conference is the larger variance there is between the hardest and easiest schedule

The more TV is involved in shaping the conference the more I think CFB will look like the NFL. Part (one of many parts) of the success of the NFL is regional representation in the end of season tourney. Regional representation means divisions. In the NFL, there seems to be a division every year that is won by a mediocre team. NFL is still much watch TV.

If the B1G and SEC break away from FBS, the 8-4 helmet schools still have a shot at playoffs and no one will care about the regular season record once the tourney opens.

 

[Some guy]

The more TV is involved in shaping the conference the more I think CFB will look like the NFL. Part (one of many parts) of the success of the NFL is regional representation in the end of season tourney. Regional representation means divisions. In the NFL, there seems to be a division every year that is won by a mediocre team. NFL is still much watch TV.

If the B1G and SEC break away from FBS, the 8-4 helmet schools still have a shot at playoffs and no one will care about the regular season record once the tourney opens.

Yup. I don’t think they’ll call them divisions though. I think they’ll just group them but not have names