College Football News: Minnesota & P.J. Fleck Ready To Row To A Big Ten Title?

[joshvanklomp]

How many 4 stars did WMU have?

Weren't you just using Penn State as an example of a team that makes a huge first-year jump after a coaching change? How did WMU make a huge jump in Fleck's first year? They won 1 game.... Thanks for making our point, that a change might not be immediate.

 

[Spoofin]

Weren't you just using Penn State as an example of a team that makes a huge first-year jump after a coaching change? How did WMU make a huge jump in Fleck's first year? They won 1 game.... Thanks for making our point, that a change might not be immediate.

Josh - he is trying to compliment your guy. He is saying that a change in OC at PSU made a (positive) immediate difference and saying PJF and team are talented enough to potentially do the same here. You, as much as anyone, should like what he is saying --- yet tamp, tamp, tamp.....


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[joshvanklomp]

Josh - he is trying to compliment your guy. He is saying that a change in OC at PSU made a (positive) immediate difference and saying PJF and team are talented enough to potentially do the same here. You, as much as anyone, should like what he is saying --- yet tamp, tamp, tamp.....

So because I like PJ Fleck means I have to be a homer about how he'll instantly turn the team into a national title contender?

 

[Spoofin]

So because I like PJ Fleck means I have to be a homer about how he'll instantly turn the team into a national title contender?

PE didn't say national title. No one did. He made a case where our offense could improve immediately. Honestly, I expect it to happen. The previous coaches struggled with it and it is what the new coaches specialize in. You should believe a little more in PJF and his staff.


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[Pompous Elitist]

National title contender? Did I say that?

National title contender....I remember when many thought Penn State didn't belong in the same CFP discussion as UM and OSU based on early season results and "resume". Good times. I even recall discussions about both OSU and Michigan getting into the CFP. Then PSU beat Wisconsin and played in one of the most epic Rose Bowls ever. What happened to OSU and Michigan? I can't recall...

Moral of the story, teams get better (or worse) as the season goes on. Coaching matters. First year starter hree star QBs can outplay veteran five star QBs throwing to four star WRS if the scheme is better. Defense can carry teams a long ways. And there's always hope.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

PE didn't say national title. No one did. He made a case where our offense could improve immediately. Honestly, I expect it to happen. The previous coaches struggled with it and it is what the new coaches specialize in. You should believe a little more in PJF and his staff.


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I believe plenty in the coaching staff's ability to improve the offense over the next few years. I don't believe in the talent that's left for this year's offense. The lack of talent on offense is the main reason why the Gophers only finished higher than 4th in the B1G West once in 6 years.

 

[joshvanklomp]

PE didn't say national title. No one did. He made a case where our offense could improve immediately. Honestly, I expect it to happen. The previous coaches struggled with it and it is what the new coaches specialize in. You should believe a little more in PJF and his staff.

National title contender? Did I say that?

You're right, my bad. I saw the blip you included PE about how the coach turned a 1-win team into a 12-win team and thought you expected that type of instant results here because of that.

And for the record, I too have said the offense should make a significant jump quickly (page 6, post 86). But I don't think that will necessarily result in more wins right away.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

I believe plenty in the coaching staff's ability to improve the offense over the next few years. I don't believe in the talent that's left for this year's offense. The lack of talent on offense is the main reason why the Gophers only finished higher than 4th in the B1G West once in 6 years.

We're going to be better. I'm willing to make a friendly wager we will finish higher in S&P+ offense this coming season. We were 84th last season. There is adequate talent on offense to do well; not sure why you and others run down the team. We won't be starting a true freshman at QB. Can't predict injuries.

Because of the shakeup on the defensive side I'm less optimistic there but with the talent of the incoming DBs I'm hopeful they're settled in by the late season run.

This is exciting stuff.

 

[Word]

I'm lead drummer of a coach not having 4 players expelled from the school. I'm not lead drummer for saying wins don't count like you constantly insist I am.

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/2016/08/27/western-michigan-university-football/89489270/

Western Michigan tied for 13th in the Fulmer Cup last year.

Players misbehave. It isn't always the coach's fault.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

We're going to be better. I'm willing to make a friendly wager we will finish higher in S&P+ offense this coming season. We were 84th last season. There is adequate talent on offense to do well; not sure why you and others run down the team. We won't be starting a true freshman at QB. Can't predict injuries.

Because of the shakeup on the defensive side I'm less optimistic there but with the talent of the incoming DBs I'm hopeful they're settled in by the late season run.

This is exciting stuff.

Nothing wrong with optimism and I'm not trying to run the team down. I'm just realistic. It's almost like you and others didn't even watch the poor OL, WR, and QB play for most of the last 6 years. The best offensive team we had was in 2014, and no surprise it coincided with our best team of the Kill/Claeys era. The offense has went downhill since, mainly due to a lack of talent.

Sure coaching could improve things slightly, but you have to have talent to work with. Our top 3 returning WRs who all played significant time in nearly every game combined to still have 250 yards less than Wolitarsky did, who most people would consider an average WR. But that's how far the talent drops off after him and that's what we have to work with this year. Fleck/Simon isn't going to suddenly turn those guys into 1000 yd WRs.

Factor in the unknowns at QB and OL where Clayes was trying to bring in more JUCOs for a reason, yeah it's tough for me to be too optimistic about the offense next year.

 

[Spoofin]

I am amazed that with all the bashing of ML7 on here the past 2-years that now we keep hearing that we will be worse because Mitch isn't here.


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[Bob_Loblaw]

I am amazed that with all the bashing of ML7 on here the past 2-years that now we keep hearing that we will be worse because Mitch isn't here.


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Yeah, I'd love to play poker with some of these people. They literally are arguing that a "known bad" is better than an "unknown". It's weird.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Nothing wrong with optimism and I'm not trying to run the team down. I'm just realistic. It's almost like you and others didn't even watch the poor OL, WR, and QB play for most of the last 6 years. The best offensive team we had was in 2014, and no surprise it coincided with our best team of the Kill/Claeys era. The offense has went downhill since, mainly due to a lack of talent.

Sure coaching could improve things slightly, but you have to have talent to work with. Our top 3 returning WRs who all played significant time in nearly every game combined to still have 250 yards less than Wolitarsky did, who most people would consider an average WR. But that's how far the talent drops off after him and that's what we have to work with this year. Fleck/Simon isn't going to suddenly turn those guys into 1000 yd WRs.

Factor in the unknowns at QB and OL where Clayes was trying to bring in more JUCOs for a reason, yeah it's tough for me to be too optimistic about the offense next year.

"Best team" depends on the yardstick one uses. Wins, advanced stats, total offense/defense, scoring, "eye test".

By S&P+ (understanding it's limitations) measure the 2015 team was actually better than the 2014 team. We had a murderer's row of games but the defense performed pretty well against some really good teams. Michigan was a missed opportunity. 2015 was the best year we've had defensively, 17th in the country. OTOH 2014 was exciting because of the names we beat and there was a sense of something building. Wins always trump losses in our minds (except 2016).

It's fine to have low expectations for the team. I just think it's interesting you think teams can't be good without high star talent; yet WMU recruited a bunch of nobodies and fielded a pretty good offense even by power 5 standards. Fleck didn't inherit a 9 win team at WMU. He inherited a 4 win team that won 2 games in the MAC. Apples and oranges.

I'll never understand the JUCO arguments from a talent standpoint. Team has need - go get it. Fleck has/is recruited/recruiting JUCOs and I fully expect them to be excellent ball players. In fact, there's less chance of a bust.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Yeah, I'd love to play poker with some of these people. They literally are arguing that a "known bad" is better than an "unknown". It's weird.

How many times in poker does the unknown end up being worse than the known bad? Sometimes you have to just fold and wait for the next hand, er recruits..

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Regarding QB, I don't know what to tell you. Rumor was Seth Green was heir apparent under Claeys and Claeys was the on that didn't want Taamu and went and got McLaurin instead. Now Green is probably 3rd or 4th on the depth chart and a guy Claeys didn't want is vying with Croft for starter. Amazingly, coaches don't always agree with each other, contrary to some opinions here that the coach is always right. Maybe Fleck will throw a curve and start the new guy - then we'll know Croft simply doesn't have it.

Bottom line is I trust Ciarrocca and Fleck with their assessments on the offensive side based on their track record (and because they align with mine ). As good as Claeys, Kill, etc were with the defense they were locked in old habits on offense and voices I trust say the coaching eg at WR and QB was not up to par and we'll leave it at that. We will soon see if a different scheme and their handpicked players cut it in the Big Ten.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

"Best team" depends on the yardstick one uses. Wins, advanced stats, total offense/defense, scoring, "eye test".

By S&P+ (understanding it's limitations) measure the 2015 team was actually better than the 2014 team. We had a murderer's row of games but the defense performed pretty well against some really good teams. Michigan was a missed opportunity. 2015 was the best year we've had defensively, 17th in the country. OTOH 2014 was exciting because of the names we beat and there was a sense of something building. Wins always trump losses in our minds (except 2016).

It's fine to have low expectations for the team. I just think it's interesting you think teams can't be good without high star talent; yet WMU recruited a bunch of nobodies and fielded a pretty good offense even by power 5 standards. Fleck didn't inherit a 9 win team at WMU. He inherited a 4 win team that won 1 game in the MAC. Apples and oranges.

I'll never understand the JUCO arguments from a talent standpoint. Team has need - go get it. Fleck has/is recruited/recruiting JUCOs and I fully expect them to be excellent ball players. In fact, there's less chance of a bust.

Best team = the team that finished 2nd in the B1G West and had a chance to go to Indy with a win in the last game against Wisconsin. That was 2014.

It's not only about high star talent. It's talent and coaching. The best teams win with combination of higher end talent and the development of under the radar guys. Fleck recruited guys who had P5 offers to Western Michigan and he also developed guys that were lightly recruited. Kill/Claeys and staff were really good a developing lightly recruited guys, especially on defense. But for whatever the reason, most of their more highly rated guys didn't pan out.

And so many people don't do any analysis beyond the 'he's inheriting a 9 win team so they must be good this year'. That team got to 9 wins with their 3 best wins being over 7-6 Colorado St, 7-6 Northwestern, and 8-5 Washington St. The other 6 wins came against a bad FCS team and five P5 teams who had a combined record of 18-42.

The schedule is still very favorable this year, but I'll put good money down that it won't be as easy as last years.

On top of that they lost 4 guys currently on NFL rosters, and 3 more invited to camps who still have a chance to make an NFL roster. That number will be significantly lower next year because this team has less talent.

 

[GopherHomer]

I am amazed that with all the bashing of ML7 on here the past 2-years that now we keep hearing that we will be worse because Mitch isn't here.


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In fairness to me, I was always a ridiculous Mitch apologist - but I get your point overall. I also get your repeated (not in a negative way - just that it comes up a lot) point about people being positive must be 'haters.' It's hard to prove, but it certainly does seem that many of the people predicting big things in 2017 are doing so to set up future talking points regarding how we shouldn't have made a coaching change. I'm sure similar things happened in the Mason/Brewster transition and the people in the Mason camp were certainly vindicated. We shall see what happens...as a Gopher fan, I hope Fleck wins right off the bat but my point of view is that we really won't know if the coaching change was the right move for about 3 seasons. There are deficiencies on the roster, but we definitely still have some talent...I think the remaining talent is on par with the 2015 & 2016 teams - which produced 5 and 8 wins (before bowl games). With the schedule being softer than 2015 and, in my opinion, tougher than 2016, I anticipate between 5 and 8 wins.

 

[Spoofin]

In fairness to me, I was always a ridiculous Mitch apologist - but I get your point overall. I also get your repeated (not in a negative way - just that it comes up a lot) point about people being positive must be 'haters.' It's hard to prove, but it certainly does seem that many of the people predicting big things in 2017 are doing so to set up future talking points regarding how we shouldn't have made a coaching change. I'm sure similar things happened in the Mason/Brewster transition and the people in the Mason camp were certainly vindicated. We shall see what happens...as a Gopher fan, I hope Fleck wins right off the bat but my point of view is that we really won't know if the coaching change was the right move for about 3 seasons. There are deficiencies on the roster, but we definitely still have some talent...I think the remaining talent is on par with the 2015 & 2016 teams - which produced 5 and 8 wins (before bowl games). With the schedule being softer than 2015 and, in my opinion, tougher than 2016, I anticipate between 5 and 8 wins.

Everything in your post makes sense. Your analysis/prediction on next year is as valid as any. No one really knows what the year will bring and has a different view on what we have returning.

I will say this about your theory on those that either tamp or raise expectations from the medium.... I know a number of posters on here that don't like how TC was let go. I know of a number that don't like PJF's style. However, I don't think I know of any that haven't said they would rather have PJF as coach at this point. Your theory almost requires folks to be rooting for the Gophers to fail, but I seriously doubt any regular posters on here (whether I agree with or disagree with their views/posts/etc.), wish that. Maybe I'm wrong.




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[GopherHomer]

Everything in your post makes sense. Your analysis/prediction on next year is as valid as any. No one really knows what the year will bring and has a different view on what we have returning.

I will say this about your theory on those that either tamp or raise expectations from the medium.... I know a number of posters on here that don't like how TC was let go. I know of a number that don't like PJF's style. However, I don't think I know of any that haven't said they would rather have PJF as coach at this point. Your theory almost requires folks to be rooting for the Gophers to fail, but I seriously doubt any regular posters on here (whether I agree with or disagree with their views/posts/etc.), wish that. Maybe I'm wrong.





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Honestly, I hope you are right and I am wrong. It would be sad to think people would dedicate time to posting on a board of a team they secretly hope will fail just to justify their point of view. Knowing this program, though, it won't be completely 'smooth sailing' for this regime so there will be plenty of opportunities for individuals to reveal their true selves of time.

 

[PMWinSTP]

You're right, my bad. I saw the blip you included PE about how the coach turned a 1-win team into a 12-win team and thought you expected that type of instant results here because of that.

And for the record, I too have said the offense should make a significant jump quickly (page 6, post 86). But I don't think that will necessarily result in more wins right away.

PE is making the point that Gophs will improve offensively this year. Can't see how anyone could reasonably argue that won't happen. Gophs were #107 in Total offense last year (NCAA stats). Still won 9 games. Schedule marginally harder on paper than last year with some favorable B1G home match-ups. Matching last year's win total will be continuing the momentum.

 

[PMWinSTP]

In fairness to me, I was always a ridiculous Mitch apologist - but I get your point overall. I also get your repeated (not in a negative way - just that it comes up a lot) point about people being positive must be 'haters.' It's hard to prove, but it certainly does seem that many of the people predicting big things in 2017 are doing so to set up future talking points regarding how we shouldn't have made a coaching change. I'm sure similar things happened in the Mason/Brewster transition and the people in the Mason camp were certainly vindicated. We shall see what happens...as a Gopher fan, I hope Fleck wins right off the bat but my point of view is that we really won't know if the coaching change was the right move for about 3 seasons. There are deficiencies on the roster, but we definitely still have some talent...I think the remaining talent is on par with the 2015 & 2016 teams - which produced 5 and 8 wins (before bowl games). With the schedule being softer than 2015 and, in my opinion, tougher than 2016, I anticipate between 5 and 8 wins.

I'm certainly one who was not pleased with how everything went down and have stated Fleck was not my #1 choice and why. That said, I expected Gophs to win 8 regular season games this year before TC was fired. Gophs have shown to have the bench talent to reload and I don't see that changing this year.

Fleck and Co. are perceived better coaches, recruiters, and talent developers. Fleck is a successful offensive minded HC. The overall talent Fleck has on this year's Gopher roster is better compared to any year he was at WMU. He has said as much. He's also said this is not a rebuild, these players already fit his offensive scheme, and expects to build on last year's record.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

The best teams have better coaches and better talent. The cream rises to the top. Don't tell me Patterson at TCU, Meyer at Utah, Peterson at Boise State won with superior talent or just got lucky, as they've shown consistent excellence. There are many other examples. Those were teams and systems developed by top shelf coaches. Those G5 teams could compete with just about anybody.

When you combine superior coaches with the best talent you get juggernauts that are difficult for anyone but other juggernauts to take down unless there is a confluence of events such as a bad QB or a reloading year. See Alabama. Plug in someone like Kiffin at USC or Alabama and I'm not convinced they will stay at elite status.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

The best teams have better coaches and better talent. The cream rises to the top. Don't tell me Patterson at TCU, Meyer at Utah, Peterson at Boise State won with superior talent or just got lucky, as they've shown consistent excellence. There are many other examples. Those were teams and systems developed by top shelf coaches. Those G5 teams could compete with just about anybody.

When you combine superior coaches with the best talent you get juggernauts that are difficult for anyone but other juggernauts to take down unless there is a confluence of events such as a bad QB or a reloading year. See Alabama. Plug in someone like Kiffin at USC or Alabama and I'm not convinced they will stay at elite status.

Both Utah and especially TCU have recruited at a much higher level than the Gophers. Boise St isn't in the P5 but they have still recruited similarly or slightly better than the Gophers. Those are poor comparisons.

I've already agreed with your second paragraph that it takes both coaching and talent.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Both Utah and especially TCU have recruited at a much higher level than the Gophers. Boise St isn't in the P5 but they have still recruited similarly or slightly better than the Gophers. Those are poor comparisons.

I've already agreed with your second paragraph that it takes both coaching and talent.

I'm talking about the WAC and Mountain West days. College football didn't start 4 years ago. Utah, TCU, Boise had national success with teams built up with lowly rated recruiting classes. Those are recent examples (last 15 years).

They did NOT recruit at a higher level than the gophers in the years leading up to their ascendance. that is patently false. Go back to before they had their breakout years. Even after years of success the team TCU took to the Rose Bowl had upperclassmen that were part of classes ranked in the 80s and 90s. Boise States string of elite teams were made up of nobodies and cast offs. Fact.

 

[GopherHomer]

I'm certainly one who was not pleased with how everything went down and have stated Fleck was not my #1 choice and why. That said, I expected Gophs to win 8 regular season games this year before TC was fired. Gophs have shown to have the bench talent to reload and I don't see that changing this year.

Fleck and Co. are perceived better coaches, recruiters, and talent developers. Fleck is a successful offensive minded HC. The overall talent Fleck has on this year's Gopher roster is better compared to any year he was at WMU. He has said as much. He's also said this is not a rebuild, these players already fit his offensive scheme, and expects to build on last year's record.

....
Okay - as to the part in bold, let's talk about this. You constantly make this claim, and I agree with you - but what does that mean? Are we trying to win the MAC? Pretty much every Big10 has more talent than any MAC team...both the former coaches of Purdue and Illinois probably walked into more talent than they had on their MAC rosters and they failed. In no way do I think this is a complete rebuild, and over the last 4 years I believe the Gophers have had the talent to go undefeated in the MAC. Under our previous regime, we were able to accumulate the talent of a very high-end MAC team and be a respectable, middling Big10 team. My personal hope for Fleck is that, over time, he can elevate the recruiting to be maybe top 5/6 in the conference and be an actual factor in the championship discussion...ala wisconsin.

You claim that Fleck and his staff are better at coaching, developing talent, and recruiting (which I don't really believe you believe) but even if that is the case, it will take time to show results. I'll even say that I think the staff of Kill/Claeys/Sawvel might have been the better trio in straight-up coaching, but they just weren't able/willing to put in the time to bring in the amount of talent requisite to competing in a major conference. They were perfect for what we needed at the time (as we were an embarrassment) but not up to the task of taking us to the next level. Fleck is the TYPE of guy to do that. We will see over the course of the next 3-5 seasons if he is able to - but Claeys was going to maintain the level we were at: an occasional 8 win season among some 5 win campaigns.

 

[GopherHomer]

I'll even add that pretty much every head coach that leaves under his own accord walks into a situation where the talent is better at the new situation - plenty of them fail.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

I'm talking about the WAC and Mountain West days. College football didn't start 4 years ago. Utah, TCU, Boise had national success with teams built up with lowly rated recruiting classes. Those are recent examples (last 15 years).

They did NOT recruit at a higher level than the gophers in the years leading up to their ascendance. that is patently false. Go back to before they had their breakout years. Even after years of success the team TCU took to the Rose Bowl had upperclassmen that were part of classes ranked in the 80s and 90s. Boise States string of elite teams were made up of nobodies and cast offs. Fact.

Why would I compare those teams to the Gophers when they weren't in the P5? Because they could rise beat a top team once a year? That's like NDSU beating Iowa. Yeah they can do it for a game, but playing an entire season in the B1G is totally different.

Boise St ended up having 4 of those 'nobodies' drafted after their 2007 Fiesta Bowl win. TCU had five guys including Andy Dalton drafted after their Rose Bowl win. Those teams had talent.

Fleck is going to recruit at a higher level and turn some under the radar recruits into good players. It just doesn't happen overnight, or in one season.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Just so we're clear, the negativity here is a bulkhead against the possibility of naysayers should Fleck flop his first year? Are you concerned he'll be fired? Fleck has 4 years minimum pending a major scandal or 3 0-1 win seasons which I can't see happening.

To summarize (and this list is not exhaustive) those of us excited about next season should tap the brakes because a) no talent, b) new scheme, c) loss of Mitch d) unproven depth on the o line, e) loss of Wolitarsky, f) need to play freshmen at DB.

I really only think d and f are very to somewhat concerning but until catastrophe happens why worry?I don't agree with the other items as I think we have better talent coming up at QB and WR, and a better offensive scheme. Injuries are always the wild card.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Why would I compare those teams to the Gophers when they weren't in the P5? Because they could rise beat a top team once a year? That's like NDSU beating Iowa. Yeah they can do it for a game, but playing an entire season in the B1G is totally different.

Boise St ended up having 4 of those 'nobodies' drafted after their 2007 Fiesta Bowl win. TCU had five guys including Andy Dalton drafted after their Rose Bowl win. Those teams had talent.

Fleck is going to recruit at a higher level and turn some under the radar recruits into good players. It just doesn't happen overnight, or in one season.

They dominated their conferences and usually beat the power 5 teams they played. That's coaching, development, and recruiting. They didn't have highly ranked classes. The point is they overachieved vs their recruit rankings. They built those NFL players. It's the coaches. All of the coaches were either were hired away or got their teams invited to the big leagues.

MN overachieved to a degree under Kill and Claeys. Our rivals have been overachieving for a long time. If we can get classes in the 30s and 40s and combine that with a good system and development we are going to be doing very well. If we recruit but can't develop we'll remain a 6-9 win team.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

It will be fascinating to watch the week-by-week reaction to this team during the season. It's just weird to me that the posters who are among the biggest Fleck supporters tend to be less optimistic about this year's team, and the people who are more skeptical of Fleck seem to be more optimistic about the team's prospects.

For the record - I am NOT trying to set up some false scenario so that I can rip Fleck if the team doesn't live up to my expectations. If I say I think the team can win 8 games this year, that means I think the team can win 8 games. I have one agenda - I want to see the Gophers have a good season. I have that same agenda whether the coach is named Fleck, Claeys, or Elmer Fudd.

I hope that everyone can just put aside all the BS this fall and support the team. If the Gophers win, I would hope that the Fleck people and the Claeys people can be equally happy. And if the Gophers don't win, I hope we can keep the second-guessing and name-calling to a minimum. Let's try to focus on what happens on the field.