Chris Martin predicted a Minny upset of PSU on the...

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NewEngland_Gold

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BTN's show "Breakdown" last night in the "bold statement" segment. A former standout DB during NW's GaryB glory years, Chris is one of the BTN's savviest game analysts and usually teams with WayneL for BTN game broadcasts.

Martin doesn't make his "bold statements" casually and last week he predicted that tOSU would hold UW's Clay to less than 75 yards rushing...he was right on! I think his streak will continue this week with a big surprise for most pundits at Happy Valley.
 

I heard that prediction too! I loved how surprised the other commentators on the show were. But I agree with Martin, Penn State has had exactly one test and failed. Minnesota has played tough teams nearly every week.

The Gophers D keeps it close, the Gopher O returns to form in an upset spectacular!
 

I was looking that the picks on CFN, and one guy has Michigan winning outright over Penn State this weekend. Either that, or he just used MI when he should have used MN. :D The consensus is that PSU will win, but not cover.
 

Chris Martin also correctly predicted that Northwesten would hold Decker to fewer than 100 yards.
 

If we can move the ball at all on them, we are set up very well for an upset, cause our defense, despite it's inconsistencies, can hang with Penn State's offense IMO. I haven't been that impressed with it. But their D....it's tough. If we can break it at all, we'll be in good shape. If not, we'll be in some major trouble, as the defense will then be put on their heels.
 


AhliBobwa said:
But I agree with Martin, Penn State has had exactly one test and failed. Minnesota has played tough teams nearly every week.
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This myth simply needs to stop.

Our opponents' record so far is 18-17. Their record against BCS opponents is 6-14. Our schedule has been very average. Not a single team we've played is in the top 25 now. I'm not defending Penn State's cupcake schedule at all, but nobody we've played so far has been as good as Penn State, and the two good teams on our schedule both came into our stadium and beat us.

The tough schedule argument can only go so far. Just becuase they were tough games doesn't make them good teams, it means we can't convincingly beat bad teams.
 

Gopherprof said:
This myth simply needs to stop.

Our opponents' record so far is 18-17. Their record against BCS opponents is 6-14. Our schedule has been very average. Not a single team we've played is in the top 25 now. I'm not defending Penn State's cupcake schedule at all, but nobody we've played so far has been as good as Penn State, and the two good teams on our schedule both came into our stadium and beat us.

The tough schedule argument can only go so far. Just becuase they were tough games doesn't make them good teams, it means we can't convincingly beat bad teams.
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That was very well said, but at least we have been in a lot of tough games which shows we have a strong mental make up. That is about as much as you can take away from things so far.
 

With all due respect to Gopherprof...

Wisconsin may be as good as PSU, but we won't know for sure because they don't meet this year; ditto for CAL except for perhaps a bowl.
 

Gopherprof said:
This myth simply needs to stop.

Our opponents' record so far is 18-17. Their record against BCS opponents is 6-14. Our schedule has been very average. Not a single team we've played is in the top 25 now. I'm not defending Penn State's cupcake schedule at all, but nobody we've played so far has been as good as Penn State, and the two good teams on our schedule both came into our stadium and beat us.

The tough schedule argument can only go so far. Just becuase they were tough games doesn't make them good teams, it means we can't convincingly beat bad teams.
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I think our schedule is better than average. Cal is still a good team, not great, but good. (just look at how bad Oregon looked in their opener. Many good teams are inconsistent). Air Force's other losses were in overtime to a good Navy team (the one that took tOSU down to the wire at the Shoe), and they played TCU very tough in a close game. As for Syracuse, it's hard to compare. We had to play them in the CarrierDome in-front of a newly energized crowd, with new coaches and schemes on the opening day of the season. Penn State got to play them a week later in Happy Valley.
 



NewEngland_Gold said:
Wisconsin may be as good as PSU, but we won't know for sure because they don't meet this year; ditto for CAL except for perhaps a bowl.
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Fair enough, and to the point below as well. That said, Penn State is basically the same team they were last year minus the wide receivers and Aaron Maybin. We'll see where things sit at the end of the year, but I find it puzzling that people are trying to talk down Penn State by mentioning our wins over Northwestern, Syracuse, etc.
 

re ..."talking down Penn State"...

...I don't get the sense that GHers are intentionally "talking down Penn State"...I think most GHers respect PSU: an acknowledged BT "biggie" year-in-and-year-out, the great tradition, the fabulous coaching record of Joe Pa & Co, their tremendous fans/stadium in Happy Valley and the unquestioned talent of the team.

What I sense most GHers are trying to get a handle on is how this Joe Pa team compares to others in the past based on what they have actually done on the field this season (who they have played, where they have played, have they dominated? etc) compared to the GGs and their results vs some similar opponents.

My take is that the GGs are going to go into Happy Valley with the confidence of knowing that they have played opponents of the caliber of PSU, played opponents of better caliber than most of PSUs opponents so far...and have done well at 4-2. That's big IMHO.
 

Penn State has played cupcakes and one good team. They beat the cupcakes and lost to iowa. We've played 2 cupcakes (Purdue, Syracuse) and 4 good teams (nu, wi, cal, Af). We beat the cupcakes and beat half the good teams we've faced to date. At a minimum we are more battle tested than psu and one might say we have a leg up on them in confidence. That said, psu has talent greater than ours and so this, plus the at home advantage, gives them the edge.. but, I think we have a shot here-if our D and SP play the way we did against purdont, we have a real shot.
 

we need at least 14 pts from Spec Teams. KR, pick 6, whatever. TS is bound to pop one soon.
 



With a little consistency we could be 6-0.......

This has been the toughest schedule Minnesota has played 6 games into the season in a looooooong time.......

Our 2 losses could've been wins. I'm pretty sure that #6 Ranking Cal brought into the Stadium was intimidating. The Gophers didn't look confident until right before half and the 2nd half was a different story despite losing by 2 touchdowns we could've won that game. I'm pretty sure if we played Cal next week after their last 2 games we would win because the Intimidation Factor is gone and it's clear the wolf wasn't as big as they thought. Wisconsin? 1 Penalty away from turning 3 into 7 and 1 interception away from 3 or 7 points.

The Gophers haven't been dominated yet and PSU coming off a cupcake will be an easy target.......
 

Broadcast

Anyone know yet whether this game is on ABC or ESPN? Hopefully ESPN.
 

Goldmember said:
Chris Martin also correctly predicted that Northwesten would hold Decker to fewer than 100 yards.
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He is pretty good at predicting stat related stuff. Not so good on big upsets.....he picked IU would upset OSU a few weeks ago. :eek: Maybe he'll improve on his big upset predictions this week!
 

NewEngland_Gold said:
...I don't get the sense that GHers are intentionally "talking down Penn State"...I think most GHers respect PSU: an acknowledged BT "biggie" year-in-and-year-out, the great tradition, the fabulous coaching record of Joe Pa & Co, their tremendous fans/stadium in Happy Valley and the unquestioned talent of the team.

What I sense most GHers are trying to get a handle on is how this Joe Pa team compares to others in the past based on what they have actually done on the field this season (who they have played, where they have played, have they dominated? etc) compared to the GGs and their results vs some similar opponents.

My take is that the GGs are going to go into Happy Valley with the confidence of knowing that they have played opponents of the caliber of PSU, played opponents of better caliber than most of PSUs opponents so far...and have done well at 4-2. That's big IMHO.
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:clap::clap:

This is EXACTLY it. Penn State has great athletes and is a tough team. That said, they are certainly not playing the caliber of football they played last year (particularly on the Offensive side of the ball). The fact that Minnesota has a fast, athletic ball-hawking D, the best WR in the country, and probably the best special teams play in the conference means the Gophers have a great shot to beat a very solid but far from untouchable Penn State squad.

:clap:
 

wait!what? said:
we need at least 14 pts from Spec Teams. KR, pick 6, whatever. TS is bound to pop one soon.
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Don't know if we need two TDs, but at least one I think, or at least a pick that sets up an easy score. I just don't know how many points we're gonna muster against them, their defense is pretty darn good. Their offense is not actually that intimidating to me, but if they put it together they could be dangerous. I just feel like this is a game we can definitely go in there and take, especially with OSU following it up, it'd be nice to have a big win to head into that one with.

I think our guys will play well, we usually play decent on the road. I can't even think of the last road game we haven't at least been right there in position to win. Last year @ OSU we kinda let mistakes let that one get away, but overall, we've played pretty well on the road in the Brewster era. I expect them to at least compete out there, and maybe, just maybe, pull out a win.
 

Nuts, we don't need media people picking us. We do better when no one expects it or gives us a chance. I think we should win every week. I am realistic enough to know sometimes its more "so you are saying there's a chance" (1%) and other times more than likely.
 


I don't get the sense anyone is saying PSU sucks either, just that we can compete with them. They are not as good as they have been and we're better than we have been.

I think this game will come down to QB pressure. if we can minimize the heat on weber, and turn it up on clark we've got ourselves a good game. Otherwise Clark with time, and Weber on the run seems a bit gloomy.
 

Monty519 said:
ABC Regional game.
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Does anyone know how to watch the game outside of the Regional viewing area? We're scheduled to get the Oklahoma - Texas game on ABC in the same time slot as the Gopher - PSU game.
 

WAGopher said:
Does anyone know how to watch the game outside of the Regional viewing area? We're scheduled to get the Oklahoma - Texas game on ABC in the same time slot as the Gopher - PSU game.
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I know when they usually do this, on Directv I have to go to one of the ESPN alternate channels, like 211 or something to get the other ABC regional game that's not on the local ABC. Don't know how it works on other systems.
 

Monty519 said:
I know when they usually do this, on Directv I have to go to one of the ESPN alternate channels, like 211 or something to get the other ABC regional game that's not on the local ABC. Don't know how it works on other systems.
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Thanks Monty, I'll look into that. We have Comcast and I don't know if they have the extended programming that DirectTV does.
 

WAGopher said:
Thanks Monty, I'll look into that. We have Comcast and I don't know if they have the extended programming that DirectTV does.
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This is where a sports bar comes in handy......They usually have any athletic event that is on television readily available with their DirectTV packages. I've had to resort to that many a time when out of town.
 

WAGopher said:
Does anyone know how to watch the game outside of the Regional viewing area? We're scheduled to get the Oklahoma - Texas game on ABC in the same time slot as the Gopher - PSU game.
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The Oklahoma/Texas game isn't in the same timeslot. It's an 11am game. If your area gets a different regional ABC game in the 2:30 slot (the other options are California at UCLA, North Carolina State at Boston College, or Texas Tech at Nebraska) then you'll be able to find it on ESPN or ESPN2 (its part of the B10 contract with ABC/ESPN I believe). See here for details.
 

Here's the coverage map:
ABC1017.bmp


UPDATE: The website with the map is down quite a bit so the map is now attached as well.
 

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having talented athletes doesn´t necessarily guarantee victory. just look at illinois. it will be interesting to see how much psu has toughened up since their loss to iowa. joepa has gone the mason route of scheduling cupcakes (largely to keep ahead of Bowden in the W column). if we can come out and punch them in the nose early and take the crowd out of the game, then we have a chance. i don´t think this is a game where we want to follow our typical script of falling behind by one or two scores.

i apologize for the lack of caps. i´m in peru right now, and hispanic keyboards are goofy. its easier to go all lower case than accidentally type a lot of ç characters
 

Illinois has the same problem we do. No offensive line. Having watched all of Illinois' games this year I really don't think Juice is the problem. Neither is Benn. They can't run the ball. Dufrene is a good back but there's nowhere to go. Juice is running for his life.

DOES THIS SOUND FAMILIAR? Juice hasn't regressed. Neither has Weber. The support around them have gotten worse - and neither QB is a Drew Brees type where he can elevate his play to another level.

It's no coincidence the best Gopher team in the last 42 years featured offensive lineman Greg Eslinger, Mark Setterstrom, and Joe Quinn up the middle.
 

Last weekend I DVR'd the IL/MSU game since...

they will be coming up at home for the Gs and I wanted to get some insight on what's going on there.

re IL:

> really looked in disarray: Eddie McG looked awful and I don't think it was just the OL...his accuracy was very poor, reads ineffective and...like Weber...had a tendency to hold the ball too long...many times it seemed he missed the quick short slant etc that was available;

> the receivers are not getting it done like last year...too many drops and missed routes;

> when Juice got in the 3Q, he seemed tenative and indecisive, also looked heavier and slower than last year for some reason...seems like he has regressed...don't know what effect the change in coaches might be having;

> re D: very weak in the middle...esp MLB, a traditional IL strength..

Could go on...some of this is fixable and Zook may have the answers by the time they visit the Bank.

re MSU:

> fr Larry Caper an emerging star at TB: very good speed, sheds blocks, good vision...killer off-tackle/sweep looks they ran repeatedly vs ND, MI, W, IL;

> two very good qbs that are interchangeable;

> lost their #2 TB to injury;

> receivers good...White Deck-like;

> active DL: strong, fast;

> LB GJones a tackling machine, All-American caliber.

Overall...this one will be a big challenge for the Gs and home field may make the difference.
 

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