Should we expect Tubby to win a Big Ten title here? Is it a reasonable expectation?
If it isn't, he's overpaid at $2.5 mil/year.
It was my belief and understanding that the reason we brought Tubby here and made him one of the top paid coaches in the country was for exactly the reason you stated; to win, or at least heavily compete for Big 10 titles.
If we aren't paying him for that, we can find plenty of quality coaches around the country that can get us 6-7th place finishes without spending 1/2 that money.
Granted, I don't think it could happen right away given the state of the program he took over. However, if he doesn't win or heavily compete for a Big 10 title in the next 3-4 years, I'll personally say that he isn't worth the money we're paying him.
Are those expectations too high?
For all of the stats that FoT runs off about Tubby being one of the top few coaches in the game today, with all of the conference titles he has won, and all of his career wins, asking for ONE Big 10 title, or at least heavily competing for it (2nd) in his first 7 years at the U should NOT be expecting too much.
Just to give you some persective, here are some of the top coaches in the Big 10, and their number of Big 10 titles (Tubby is paid more than all of them except Izzo, with more head coaching experience at the D1 level than anyone on the list as well, having 4 more years than Izzo):
Tom Izzo - 6 Big 10 titles, 4 titles in his first 6 years in the league
Bo Ryan - 3 Big 10 titles in his first 7 years in the league
Thad Matta - 3 Big 10 titles in his first 6 years in the league
Bruce Weber - 2 Big 10 titles in his first 3 years in the league
Matt Painter - 1 Big 10 title in his first 6 years in the league
If Tubby can't even win ONE Big 10 title in his first 7 years, given that track record above; I think we're seriously overpaying him.