I would say this: if the Gophers go 7-5 in the regular season, and win a bowl game to finish 8-5, Claeys is back next year. That's a lock. I also think he returns even if Gophs go 6-6 in the Regular season, and win a bowl game to finish 7-6. It's tough to fire a coach who just won a bowl game. Of course, if Coyle decides he has to make a move, I suppose he could fire Claeys before the bowl game.
The other piece of the puzzle involves ticket sales. If the season-ticket holders keep dumping their seats, Coyle might feel he has to make a move to "energize" the fan base. (although I'm not sure there's enough juice in the electric grid to energize this fan base.....)