Bubblicious Thursday: Bubble Talk Goes Out The Window If Gophers Lose Tonight

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SelectionSunday

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Bubblicious Thursday: Gophers In Do Or Die Mode vs. Penn State

Friday morning will be the final Bubblicious report. All of you have a pretty good handle on it, and by then we'll have a really good idea of who legitimately remains in the at-large pool. Will return in the wee hours of Sunday morning with a final "Field of 68" projection. Go Gophers.

Developments?

(1) The rubber starts hitting the road Thursday, as 18 of our 22 bubblers hit the court. Some of you may quibble with this and I understand that, but I have 10 teams (9 games) essentially facing elimination today. The Gophers, Florida State, Illinois, Missouri, NC State, Pitt, Providence/Saint John's, SMU, and Southern Miss will see their at-large hopes either disappear or be in serious jeopardy if they lose today.

(2) Oklahoma State locks up a bid with a rout of Texas Tech, leaving us with 12 available at-large spots.

(3) Georgetown is removed from the bubble after losing to Big East cellar dweller DePaul. Hoyas have 3 really good nonconference wins (Michigan State, VCU, Kansas State), but 14 overall losses and an 8-11 mark vs. so-so Big East competition simply spells NIT.

AVAILABLE BIDS: 12

Auto Bids/Placeholders (32)
Stony Brook (America East), Cincinnati (American), Virginia (ACC), MERCER (Atlantic Sun), Saint Louis (Atlantic 10), Villanova (Big East), Weber State (Big Sky), COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South), Michigan (Big Ten), Kansas (Big XII), UC-Irvine (Big West), DELAWARE (Colonial), Louisiana Tech (Conference USA), MILWAUKEE (Horizon), HARVARD (Ivy), MANHATTAN (MAAC), Western Michigan (MAC), North Carolina Central (MEAC), WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley), San Diego State (Mountain West), MOUNT SAINT MARY'S (NEC), EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC), Arizona (Pac 12), AMERICAN (Patriot), Florida (SEC), WOFFORD (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), Georgia State (Sun Belt), GONZAGA (WCC), Utah Valley (WAC).

Locks (24)
Wisconsin (6), Creighton (7), Duke (8), Syracuse (10), Iowa State (11), VCU (13), New Mexico (17), UMass (18), Kentucky (20), Louisville (21), Oklahoma (22), North Carolina (23), Ohio State (24), Michigan State (25), Oregon (26), UCLA (27), UConn (28), Memphis (29), George Washington (30), BYU (31), Colorado (32), Texas (33), Baylor (36), Oklahoma State (40).

The Bubblers (22 battling for 12 spots)
Southern Miss (34) -- @ UTEP, 7 p.m. (Conference USA quarterfinals)
Arizona State (38) -- vs. Stanford, 10:30 p.m. (Pac 12 quarterfinals)
Dayton (39) -- vs. Fordham, 1:30 p.m. (Atlantic 10 2nd round)
Nebraska (41)
Saint Joseph's (42)
Tennessee (43)
Pitt (44) -- vs. Wake Forest, 1:30 p.m. (ACC 2nd round)
SMU (45) -- vs. Houston, noon (American quarterfinals)
Stanford (46) -- beat Washington State 74-63; vs. Arizona State, , 10:30 p.m. (Pac 12 quarterfinals)
Kansas State (47) -- vs. Iowa State, 11:30 a.m. (Big XII quarterfinals)
Iowa (48) -- vs. Northwestern, 8 p.m. (Big Ten 1st round)
Xavier (49) -- vs. Marquette, 8:30 p.m. (Big East quarterfinals)
GOPHERS (51) -- vs. Penn State, 5:30 p.m. (Big Ten 1st round)
Missouri (52) -- vs. Texas A&M, noon (SEC 2nd round)
Cal (53) -- vs. Colorado, 4:30 p.m. (Pac 12 quarterfinals)
Providence (54) -- vs. Saint John's, 1:30 p.m. (Big East quarterfinals)
Florida State (55) -- vs. Maryland, 11 a.m. (ACC 2nd round)
Saint John's (57) -- vs. Providence, 1:30 p.m. (Big East quarterfinals)
Arkansas (59) -- vs. South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (SEC 2nd round)
Green Bay (61) -- SEASON COMPLETED
NC State (65) -- vs. Miami-Florida, 6 p.m. (ACC 2nd round)
Illinois (68) -- vs. Indiana, 11 a.m. (Big Ten 1st round)

NIT Automatic Bids (9) -- regular-season champs who don't get NCAA at-large bid)
Belmont (Ohio Valley)
Boston U (Patriot)
Davidson (Southern)
Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)
Green Bay (Horizon) -- miniscule chance for an at-large bid.
High Point (Big South)
Iona (MAAC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Vermont (America East)
 

Arkansas

Thanks for the update, Selection.

I think I would put Arkansas in that win or be done today mix as well. Also wondering if after these win or be done games today if it forces a couple of others. I don't have the Big East bracket in front of me, but I think a Dayton win over Fordham has them playing St. Joe's, which could be an elimination game. Maybe one in the SEC too. This could force an automatic shrinking of the bubble, which may improve our chances.

What happens to the Hawkeyes if the 'Cats pull one out the hat? Go NU!

See you later today. We'll be a little late for the first game. My hosts in Indy are great, but no cable TV! I will be a little short on my basketball fix this weekend not being able to go back for more after watching 11 hours of live hoops!
 

I like Dayton better than Saint Joe's even though Saint Joe's swept the season series. Would make things easier if Dayton beats Saint Joe's in the 3rd meeting (assuming they meet).

I wouldn't advise Arkansas and the Hawkeyes lose their first tourney games, but I would like Iowa's chances better if that were to occur.

The Arkansas-Gophers dynamic could be interesting if they both go win-lose. Both would still have a chance for an at-large bid, but I have a feeling if that happens that the committee would either take both the Gophers and Razorbacks or neither one of 'em. ... it won't be one or the other.

We like our hotel but are disappointed in the TV basketball options. Have the 3 ESPNs (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU), but no BTN, FS1, CBS Sports Network, or Pac 12 Network. Didn't expect to get CBSSN or Pac 12, but rather surprised there's no BTN (especially in the state of Indiana) and FS1.
 

Why wouldn't Iowa be a must win? A loss would put them at a virtual tie with the U on record and it would have to drop their RPI below us.
 

alchemy2u said:
Why wouldn't Iowa be a must win? A loss would put them at a virtual tie with the U on record and it would have to drop their RPI below us.
Click to expand...

Valid question.

I'll be honest. Despite their struggles, I see no way in h*ll the Hawkeyes lose to Northwestern. If the Hawkeyes simply avoid the bad loss today I'm locking them in. That would guarantee they'll finish with no bad losses (RPI 101+), a minimum of 3-4 top-50 wins, and most importantly (relative to the Gophers) a win over the Big Ten champion (Michigan). The Hawkeyes are closer to being a lock than a team in real jeopardy of being right at the cutline (like the Gophers are).

When these teams are all so closely bunched together, I don't concern myself with their individual RPI's. Can find scabs on all of 'em.
 


alchemy2u said:
Why wouldn't Iowa be a must win? A loss would put them at a virtual tie with the U on record and it would have to drop their RPI below us.
Click to expand...

If Iowa loses today they could still be safe if MN loses along with a lot of other losses.
That's not the same for Minnesota, Arkansas, etc.

Teams like Illinois, today is hope killing day. All they have is hope to keep adding games to their season by winning, same for Minn. A loss and that hope is gone.
 

Who do we want in the ASU vs. Stanford game?

Sent from my XT912 using Tapatalk
 


Face The Facts said:
If Iowa loses today they could still be safe if MN loses along with a lot of other losses.
That's not the same for Minnesota, Arkansas, etc.

Teams like Illinois, today is hope killing day. All they have is hope to keep adding games to their season by winning, same for Minn. A loss and that hope is gone.
Click to expand...

I don't know. If Iowa loses to Northwestern (RPI 133) their RPI (Currently 48) will go in the tank.
 



Today's favorite teams for me:
Go UTEP, Go ASU, Fordam, Wake Forest, Houston, Iowa State, Northwestern, Marquette, Texas A&M, Colorado

10 teams- in my dreams 5 of them win, we beat PSU and our prospects are looking brighter.

Edit- I'll make it 11- Go South Carolina- beat Arkansas!
 

Illinois hot early. What kind of run does Illinois need to realistically have a shot? Finals?
 


Seton Hall beating up on Nova 26-13. Not good. We don't want a big east team stealing a bid.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk
 



SelectionSunday said:
Valid question.

I'll be honest. Despite their struggles, I see no way in h*ll the Hawkeyes lose to Northwestern. If the Hawkeyes simply avoid the bad loss today I'm locking them in. That would guarantee they'll finish with no bad losses (RPI 101+), a minimum of 3-4 top-50 wins, and most importantly (relative to the Gophers) a win over the Big Ten champion (Michigan). The Hawkeyes are closer to being a lock than a team in real jeopardy of being right at the cutline (like the Gophers are).

When these teams are all so closely bunched together, I don't concern myself with their individual RPI's. Can find scabs on all of 'em.
Click to expand...

I agree, there's almost no way Iowa loses, but if they do, I really think they're out. A complete collapse and an RPI in the mid-50's should not equal a bid any more than the Gophers should get one if they lose today.
 

bga1 said:
Today's favorite teams for me:
Go UTEP, Go ASU, Fordam, Wake Forest, Houston, Iowa State, Northwestern, Marquette, Texas A&M, Colorado

10 teams- in my dreams 5 of them win, we beat PSU and our prospects are looking brighter.

Edit- I'll make it 11- Go South Carolina- beat Arkansas!
Click to expand...

Can't agree with you on UTEP. Far better for Southern Miss to just win the auto bid.
 

mcal24 said:
Who do we want in the ASU vs. Stanford game?

Sent from my XT912 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

ASU, but they're both in. However, a Stanford loss means we can jump over them when we beat Wiscy tomorrow and avoid playing in the 1st Four. :cool:
 

howeda7 said:
Can't agree with you on UTEP. Far better for Southern Miss to just win the auto bid.
Click to expand...

I'm confused about that conference. SS has Louisiana Tech as the conference champ auto bid placeholder. They have several teams with gaudy records in that conference and some are of the opinion that Southern Miss could be out if they lose because the conference stinks. Is that conference a lock for 2 bids? If so then -yeah we want So. Miss. If not then we want a So. Miss loss I think.
 

bga1 said:
I'm confused about that conference. SS has Louisiana Tech as the conference champ auto bid placeholder. They have several teams with gaudy records in that conference and some are of the opinion that Southern Miss could be out if they lose because the conference stinks. Is that conference a lock for 2 bids? If so then -yeah we want So. Miss. If not then we want a So. Miss loss I think.
Click to expand...

No, they're not a lock for 2 bids. USM is the only team with a shot at an at-large. Better if they just win the tournament. A loss to UTEP might knock them from at-large consideration, but it might not.
 

bga1 said:
I'm confused about that conference. SS has Louisiana Tech as the conference champ auto bid placeholder. They have several teams with gaudy records in that conference and some are of the opinion that Southern Miss could be out if they lose because the conference stinks. Is that conference a lock for 2 bids? If so then -yeah we want So. Miss. If not then we want a So. Miss loss I think.
Click to expand...

It's a one bid conference most likely.

Louisiana Tech has no chance at an at-large. Southern Miss has about a 20% chance at one. So it's best if Southern Miss wins the tournament just to remove any possibilities of it becoming a two bid conference.
 

Would A KSU loss to Iowa St. bump us over them with a win today?
 

howeda7 said:
No, they're not a lock for 2 bids. USM is the only team with a shot at an at-large. Better if they just win the tournament. A loss to UTEP might knock them from at-large consideration, but it might not.
Click to expand...

Got it- that makes sense. Go USM!!
 

What we really don't want to happen is a bad team (a team who wouldn't make it at-large) winning the conference tournament. And a team that would be an at-large bid finishing below them. Like if Indiana won the Big Ten tournament or some such thing.
 

JMWZ said:
What we really don't want to happen is a bad team (a team who wouldn't make it at-large) winning the conference tournament. And a team that would be an at-large bid finishing below them. Like if Indiana won the Big Ten tournament or some such thing.
Click to expand...

Like seton hall in the big east. Ideally what would happen is st John's and providence get knocked out early so neither team gets an at-large and either Villanova or Creighton win the tournament. While one of st johns or providence will definitely lose today, seton hall is beating villanova by 11 right now. If they hang on, they could have a relatively easy route to the championship the rest of the way.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk
 

stocker08 said:
Would A KSU loss to Iowa St. bump us over them with a win today?
Click to expand...

No. KSU is a lock. If we can win today and tomorrow we can start rooting for avoiding a play-in game. Until then, KSU or the like losing means little.
 

Aaaaaaand all of a sudden Nova goes on a 16-0 run. Hope they win this game and take down the St. John's/Providence winner tomorrow.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk
 


Wouldn't an Iowa loss actually hurt the Gophers since they would drop out of the RPI top 50?
 


SMU outscored 22-8 to open second half...is this good or bad for us?
 

SMU down 5 to Houston with just over 12 to play. Would a loss put them in jeopardy of sliding off the bubble?
 

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