Bubblicious Sunday: Gophers Need To Hold Serve vs. Penn State

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With only one win, a lot of things would have to go right. Iowa losing their first round matchup would be a good start.
 

I'm a little pissed that bracket matrix still has Arkansas (63) in.
 

howeda7 said:
1 win = 33-40% chance IMO. Probably comes down to how much they like SOS and how much they factor in Dre's injury. 2 win 90%.
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I think that is about right.....we have three road wins all year against division 1 opponents......against Richmond, Northwestern and Penn State. If they don't win two games in the BTT I don't think they will go and nor should they go to the tournament. Three road wins is what will keep them out regardless of their perceived SOS.....which by the way, just looks at our opponents records and not who those teams played to achieve their records. Other rankings like Saragin, BPI, and Ken Pom all have our strength of schedule much lower because they look at who our opponents beat to achieve their records.

If Nebraska beats Wisconsin today or Purdue on Thursday, I think they are in. If Iowa beats Northwestern, I think they are in. I think we have to beat Penn State and Wisconsin to have a good chance to make the tournament. Otherwise I think it will be a disappointing Sunday night next week. On the other hand, I think it would be difficult to keep the Gophers out if they beat Penn State and Wisconsin.
 

PitinoFan said:
I'm a little pissed that bracket matrix still has Arkansas (63) in.
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You have to look how it's trending though too. The latest brackets (the left most) are the most recent and many of those don't have Arkansas where the older brackets do.
Minnesota and California where both hanging pretty good as the first two teams out and Minnesota got to play today.
I'd expect on the Monday-Wednesday brackets, Minnesota will be in about half of them.
 


ethomasp31 said:
I think that is about right.....we have three road wins all year against division 1 opponents......against Richmond, Northwestern and Penn State. If they don't win two games in the BTT I don't think they will go and nor should they go to the tournament. Three road wins is what will keep them out regardless of their perceived SOS.....which by the way, just looks at our opponents records and not who those teams played to achieve their records. Other rankings like Saragin, BPI, and Ken Pom all have our strength of schedule much lower because they look at who our opponents beat to achieve their records.

If Nebraska beats Wisconsin today or Purdue on Thursday, I think they are in. If Iowa beats Northwestern, I think they are in. I think we have to beat Penn State and Wisconsin to have a good chance to make the tournament. Otherwise I think it will be a disappointing Sunday night next week. On the other hand, I think it would be difficult to keep the Gophers out if they beat Penn State and Wisconsin.
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Nebraska is a lock if they win tonight, since they'd get a bye. If they lose, they may need to win two as well. If they lose tonight, their RPI will be lower than ours, between 55-60. A win over Purdue may not be enough.
 

The teams have to come from somewhere. Here's my breakdown by conf to date. Thinking the gophers are last 4 in and likely stay there even if they beat psu again. So, I think we're hoping for no upsets in 4 conference tourneys

America East Conference. 1
American Athletic Conference. 5
Atlantic 10 Conference. 6
Atlantic Coast Conference 5
Atlantic Sun Conference 1
Big 12 Conference 7
Big East Conference 3
Big South Conference 1
Big Sky Conference 1
Big Ten Conference 7
Big West Conference 1
Colonial Athletic Association 1
Conference USA 1 if So Miss wins their tourney
Horizon League 1
Ivy League. 1
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. 1
Mid-American Conference 1 if Toledo wins the tourney
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference 1
Missouri Valley Conference 1 if Wichita wins their tourney
Mountain West Conference 2
Northeast Conference 1
Ohio Valley Conference 1
Pacific-12 Conference 6
Patriot League 1
Southeastern Conference 3
Southern Conference 1
Southland Conference 1
Southwestern Athletic Conference 1
Sun Belt Conference. 1
The Summit League 1 if ndst wins their tourney
West Coast Conference. 2
Western Athletic Conference 1
 

Looks like Nebraska is gonna pull this out.
 

howeda7 said:
Nebraska is a lock if they win tonight, since they'd get a bye. If they lose, they may need to win two as well. If they lose tonight, their RPI will be lower than ours, between 55-60. A win over Purdue may not be enough.
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It depends on who's RPI you are looking at.....if you go by ESPNs RPI it won't drop into the 50's with a loss....as they are ranked 41 according to ESPN. While I think we are close to Nebraska if they lose tonight and we both go 1-1 in the BTT, I do think their resume is a little better than ours. I know if that happened and we went and they didn't....I would feel very slighted if I was a Nebraska fan.
 



ethomasp31 said:
It depends on who's RPI you are looking at.....if you go by ESPNs RPI it won't drop into the 50's with a loss....as they are ranked 41 according to ESPN. While I think we are close to Nebraska if they lose tonight and we both go 1-1 in the BTT, I do think their resume is a little better than ours. I know if that happened and we went and they didn't....I would feel very slighted if I was a Nebraska fan.
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ESPN's 'BPI' is a meaningless ESPN-made up #. Their RPI should not be different from the other sites. Nebraska's RPI was 50 coming into today, not 41.
 

GopherOhana said:
The teams have to come from somewhere. Here's my breakdown by conf to date. Thinking the gophers are last 4 in and likely stay there even if they beat psu again. So, I think we're hoping for no upsets in 4 conference tourneys

America East Conference. 1
American Athletic Conference. 5
Atlantic 10 Conference. 6
Atlantic Coast Conference 5
Atlantic Sun Conference 1
Big 12 Conference 7
Big East Conference 3
Big South Conference 1
Big Sky Conference 1
Big Ten Conference 7
Big West Conference 1
Colonial Athletic Association 1
Conference USA 1 if So Miss wins their tourney
Horizon League 1
Ivy League. 1
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. 1
Mid-American Conference 1 if Toledo wins the tourney
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference 1
Missouri Valley Conference 1 if Wichita wins their tourney
Mountain West Conference 2
Northeast Conference 1
Ohio Valley Conference 1
Pacific-12 Conference 6
Patriot League 1
Southeastern Conference 3
Southern Conference 1
Southland Conference 1
Southwestern Athletic Conference 1
Sun Belt Conference. 1
The Summit League 1 if ndst wins their tourney
West Coast Conference. 2
Western Athletic Conference 1
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I think the PAC 12 gets 7 teams in before the B1G does....and with Nebraska winning tonight I think they are in. We need a good win....not just a win, and I don't think Penn State alone will give us that.
 

howeda7 said:
ESPN's 'BPI' is a meaningless ESPN-made up #. Their RPI should not be different from the other sites. Nebraska's RPI was 50 coming into today, not 41.
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Go to their RPI in Bracketology and it is.....they have an RPI of 41 going into today. Their BPI is worse than ours, at like 58, but their RPI is at 41.
 

Nebraska Cornhuskers
AP RANK -- CONF. W-L 10-7 LAST 12 9-3
RPI 41 NON-CONF. W-L 8-4 vs. RPI TOP 25 1-5
vs. D-1 18-11 NON-CONF. SOS 79 vs. RPI TOP 50 3-7
vs. NON-D-1 0-0 NON-CONF. RPI 56 vs. RPI TOP 100 7-8
SOS 40 SCORING MARGIN 2.10 vs. RPI TOP 150 13-11
OPPONENT SOS 32 NEUTRAL W-L 0-0 vs. RPI SUB 150 5-0
ROAD W-L 4-10
 



howeda7 said:
ESPN's 'BPI' is a meaningless ESPN-made up #. Their RPI should not be different from the other sites. Nebraska's RPI was 50 coming into today, not 41.
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And I'm aware how the RPI, BPI, KenPom and Saragin differ. And actually the strength of schedule used by the RPI is the least accurate of any of the strength of schedules.
 

ethomasp31 said:
Nebraska Cornhuskers
AP RANK -- CONF. W-L 10-7 LAST 12 9-3
RPI 41 NON-CONF. W-L 8-4 vs. RPI TOP 25 1-5
vs. D-1 18-11 NON-CONF. SOS 79 vs. RPI TOP 50 3-7
vs. NON-D-1 0-0 NON-CONF. RPI 56 vs. RPI TOP 100 7-8
SOS 40 SCORING MARGIN 2.10 vs. RPI TOP 150 13-11
OPPONENT SOS 32 NEUTRAL W-L 0-0 vs. RPI SUB 150 5-0
ROAD W-L 4-10
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report

50 according to Palm is my guess where howeda7 is getting it from
 

upnorthkid said:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report

50 according to Palm is my guess where howeda7 is getting it from
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I've read the different RPI's also.....and wondered why they are different. I know where he got them, because if you go to the NCAAs website the RPI for Nebraska is at 50 there also. But the last few days Nebraska has had an RPI at 41 on ESPN's site. I look at all the different RPI's and other ratings sites several times a day.
 

ethomasp31 said:
I've read the different RPI's also.....and wondered why they are different. I know where he got them, because if you go to the NCAAs RPI Nebraska is at 50 there also. But the last few days Nebraska has had an RPI at 41 on ESPN's site. I look at all the different RPI's and other ratings sites several times a day.
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Nvm
 

upnorthkid said:
Espn already put in the effect of the w over wisky. Palm has not
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Well then they must have assumed they were going to beat Wisconsin three days ago because it has been at 41 since Friday.
 


ethomasp31 said:
Well then they must have assumed they were going to beat Wisconsin three days ago because it has been at 41 since Friday.
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Yeah I reread your post. Didn't realize it said for past few days
 

On ESPN it was not 50 an hour ago. It was at 41 for the last few days.....I even commented on it in another thread.
 



I'm not saying it was correct, and I actually don't think it was.....but that is what it said on ESPN.....but not on any other site that had the RPI listed. It doesn't matter now. I think Nebraska punched their ticket. We can still go if we win two games in the BTT even if Nebraska and Iowa go. Actually the RPI is more friendly than the other rankings for Nebraska...and the Gophers for that matter.
 

Actually, i was wrong. An hour ago, Gophers were at 50 and NE was at 51. I recall fantasizing about what would happen to NE's RPI with a loss tonight and in game one of the BTT while looking at it.
 

ethomasp31 said:
And I'm aware how the RPI, BPI, KenPom and Saragin differ. And actually the strength of schedule used by the RPI is the least accurate of any of the strength of schedules.
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No offense intended. I hate both ESPN's BPI and their QBR quarterback rating. I see that ESPN's was at 41. Palm, Yahoo, etc. all have them at 50, so it seems that ESPN still uses a different formula than the others? Not sure. Irrelevant now as far Nebraska.
 




howeda7 said:
No offense intended. I hate both ESPN's BPI and their QBR quarterback rating. I see that ESPN's was at 41. Palm, Yahoo, etc. all have them at 50, so it seems that ESPN still uses a different formula than the others? Not sure. Irrelevant now as far Nebraska.
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I usually pay most attention to the RPI, because I've heard that is what the selection committee uses. ESPN was usually the same as the other RPI's throughout the year....it was just different this weekend. Enough so, that I googled RPI and looked it up on several sites. Doesn't matter. Ow....gophers just need to take care of business.
 

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