Bubblicious Sunday: Gophers Need To Hold Serve vs. Penn State

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SelectionSunday

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Friday/Saturday developments?

(1) Harvard (Ivy) and Eastern Kentucky (OVC) are the first two teams officially in the field.

(2) I locked up two teams yesterday (Oregon and George Washington), but I also had second thoughts about both Arizona State and Kansas State after their losses yesterday. Have moved the Sun Devils and Wildcats from "lock" status to the "win next game" category.

(3) There's a very real chance that the Atlantic 10 could get 6 teams in the field. I already have 4 locked in (Saint Louis, VCU, UMass, George Washington), and both Dayton and Saint Joseph's are in a pretty good spot.

(4) If everything falls right at the Pac 12 Tournament next week, the Pac 12 has an outside chance at 7 bids. In my opinion, Cal is in the most tenuous position of the 7 hopefuls; also Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, and UCLA.

(5) Green Bay (lost in Horizon League semifinals) is an interesting case for the selection committee. Not much on its resume, but the Phoenix did beat potential #1 seed Virginia. Mid-major champions with less on their resumes have received at-large bids before. However, I don't like their chances. It's especially never a good idea to lose on your home court in the conference tourney, but let's see what shakes down in other traditional 1-bid conferences before we dismiss Green Bay.

If you're a Gopher fan cheer like h*ll for Coastal Carolina (Big South title game) and Wofford (Southern semifinals) in their conference tournaments today. It never hurts to own a couple wins vs. automatic qualifiers from smaller conferences.

Auto Bids/Placeholders (32)
Vermont (America East), Cincinnati (American), Virginia (ACC), Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun), Saint Louis (Atlantic 10), Villanova (Big East), Weber State (Big Sky), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Michigan (Big Ten), Kansas (Big XII), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Louisiana Tech (Conference USA), Wright State (Horizon), HARVARD (Ivy), Iona (MAAC), Western Michigan (MAC), North Carolina Central (MEAC), Wichita State (Missouri Valley), San Diego State (Mountain West), Robert Morris (NEC), EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC), Arizona (Pac 12), Boston U (Patriot), Florida (SEC), Davidson (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC), North Dakota State (Summit), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Gonzaga (WCC), Utah Valley (WAC).

Locks (22)
Wisconsin (5), Creighton (7), Duke (8), Iowa State (11), Syracuse (12), VCU (13), UMass (14), New Mexico (17), Kentucky (18), North Carolina (19), Oklahoma (20), Louisville (21), Michigan State (22), Oregon (25), UCLA (26), Ohio State (27), UConn (28), Memphis (29), George Washington (30), Colorado (31), Texas (32), Baylor (35)

AVAILABLE BIDS: 14 (8 if bids conceded to thresholders)

Win Next Game and You're In (6)
BYU (33) -- beat Loyola Marymount 85-74
Arizona State (38) -- lost to Oregon State 76-78
Oklahoma State (41) -- lost to Iowa State 81-85
Tennessee (42) -- beat Missouri 72-45
Kansas State (47) -- lost to Baylor 74-76
Nebraska (50) -- Wisconsin, 6:30 p.m. (BTN)

Truest of the True Bubblers (16)
Saint Joseph's (34) -- La Salle, 3 p.m. (CBSSN)
Dayton (39) -- beat Richmond 60-48
Stanford (43) -- beat Utah 61-60
SMU (44) -- lost to Memphis 58-67
Pitt (45) -- beat Clemson 83-78
Iowa (46) -- lost to Illinois 63-66
Xavier (48)
GOPHERS (51) -- Penn State, 4:15 p.m. (BTN)
Missouri (52) -- lost to Tennessee 45-72
Georgetown (53) -- lost to Villanova 59-77
Providence (54) -- lost to Creighton 73-88
Florida State (55) -- Syracuse, 1 p.m.
Cal (56) -- beat Colorado 66-65
Saint John's (58) -- beat Marquette 91-90
Green Bay (60) -- lost to Milwaukee 66-73 (season complete)
Arkansas (62) -- lost to Alabama 58-83

On the Radar (3)
Southern Miss (36)
NC State (64) -- Boston College, 5 p.m. (ESPNU)
Illinois (66) -- beat Iowa 66-63

Conference Tournaments Resuming Tonight
America East semifinals -- 1-bid conference (#1 Vermont highest remaining seed).
Atlantic Sun title game -- 1-bid conference (#1 Florida Gulf Coast highest remaining seed); Nebraska wants FGCU to win it.
Big South title game -- 1-bid conference (#2 Coastal Carolina highest remaining seed); Gophers want Coastal to win it.
Colonial semifinals -- 1-bid conference (#1 Delaware highest remaining seed).
MAAC semifinals -- 1-bid conference (#1 Iona highest remaining seed).
MVC title game-- definite bid-stealer if Indiana State beats Wichita State (#1 Shockers highest remaining seed).
Southern semifinals -- 1-bid conference (#1 Davidson highest remaining seed); Gophers want #2 seed Wofford to win it.
Summit quarterfinals -- slight chance for bid-stealer if North Dakota State doesn't win it (#1 NDSU highest remaining seed).

NIT Automatic Bids (regular-season champs who didn't earn auto bid and don't receive NCAA at-large bid)
Belmont (Ohio Valley)
Green Bay (Horizon) -- maybe a chance for an at-large bid?
High Point (Big South)

Beat Penn State.
 

Mentally, I have Green Bay stealing a bid. Right now, they are 28-3 with a win against one of the top eight in the country. I don't think the selection team want to deal with the "mid major" got hosed crowd. We'll see. You know more than I do, but I was cheering mighty hard for the Phoenix last night.

Let's take care of business tonight and make Indy a great memory!
 

Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin

Were you thinking of Stephen F. Austin?

Green Bay is 21-6 with 11-3 road/neutral record.

1-2 vs. top 50. (#10 Virginia)

4-3 vs. top 100.

#52 nonconference SOS is solid.

"Good losses" to Wisconsin and Harvard. Only other decent win outside of the Horizon was #95 Tulsa, one of the regular-season quad-champs in Conference USA. UWGB will want Wright State to beat Milwaukee in the title game because they beat Wright State twice.

I'll be interested what the committee does with Stephen F. Austin if they don't win the Southland tourney. 25-2, unblemished 18-0 conference record, haven't lost since Nov. 23. Only top-100 win is Colonial runner-up Towson (#89), and their nonconference SOS is awful (#299). Texas (lost by 10) is the only sure-fire NCAA opponent they played. If it came down to taking a regular-season champ I'd certainly take Green Bay over SFA.

See you in Indy, Holy Man. Should be fun. Northwestern the only team that appears incapable of doing some kind of damage.
 

SS do you think we should be rooting for or against FSU today? If they win, we will probably have 4 top 50 wins but maybe they are on the inner track of getting in the tourney.
 

I can't believe Iowa has plummeted to the bubble. They are in serious trouble if they don't win their first B1G tournament game.
 





Is Iowa in danger of missing the tournament if they lose their conference tourney game?
 



afurry91 said:
Is Iowa in danger of missing the tournament if they lose their conference tourney game?
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I'm not SS, but I doubt it. The committee ditched the "last 10 games" criteria yers ago, so momentum has little to do with getting bids. Hawkeyes will be in despite coming apart at the seams the last three weeks. As Gopher fans, we have a little experience with late season slides and still getting in. They are in the same boat we have been in a few times recently.

I don't see them being overlooked, but just in case I will root against them big time in Indy just to test the hypothesis.
 

Iowa would have their RPI plummet to around 60 if the lose that first game. I think they would definitely be sweating it out.
 

Holy Man said:
I'm not SS, but I doubt it. The committee ditched the "last 10 games" criteria yers ago, so momentum has little to do with getting bids. Hawkeyes will be in despite coming apart at the seams the last three weeks. As Gopher fans, we have a little experience with late season slides and still getting in. They are in the same boat we have been in a few times recently.

I don't see them being overlooked, but just in case I will root against them big time in Indy just to test the hypothesis.
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True, however the computers loved us last year. The Gophers have a higher RPI and and significantly higher strength of schedule than the hawkeyes right now (yet we are on the outside looking in) and only one top 25 RPI win. They are pretty good against the RPI top 100, but that's about the strongest part of their resume.

My opinion means nothing, but I think they are in trouble. I certainly hope they are.
 

Coastal Carolina punches their ticket. MD upsets Virginia. NW over Purdue. interesting developments
 





Found this online.

No. 1 seed – Michigan

John Beilein and the champion Wolverines tip off Friday, March 14, 2014 at 12:00 p.m. ET. The only things still up in the air is whether the game will air on ESPN or ESPN2 (TBD) and who they'll play.

Opponent: If Minnesota beats Penn State (they're 7-point home favorites) this afternoon, Michigan gets the winner of Indiana/Illinois. If the Nittany Lions upset the Gophers, UM gets the winner of Minnesota/Indiana.

No. 2 seed – Wisconsin/Michigan State

If this afternoon's results play out the way Vegas projects it, Wisconsin will be the two seed and Michigan State will be the three. Bo Ryan's Badgers need a win or an MSU loss, where as the Spartans need to win and have Wisconsin lose.

Opponent: If Minnesota beats Penn State, as expected, the two seed will get the winner of Minnesota/Penn State. If Penn State beats Minnesota, the two will draw the winner of Illinois/Penn State.

No. 3 seed – Michigan State/Wisconsin

As mentioned, a Wisconsin win sets the Badgers as the two and drops the Spartans to third. A Spartans loss to Ohio State would also accomplish this. MSU has to beat the Buckeyes and hope Nebraska drops Bo Ryan's side for them to jump to the two line.

Opponent: If Ohio State wins, they'll get the winner of Iowa against the winner of today's Purdue-Northwestern game. If MSU beats OSU on senior day, they'll get the winner of Ohio State against today's Purdue-Northwestern victor.

No. 4 seed – Ohio State/Nebraska

Nebraska controls their own destiny. Win and they're the four seed. As wild as it sounds, it's actually still possible for Tim Miles' team to get the four seed (and the accompanying bye) with a loss, but they'll need Ohio State to lose to Michigan State, too. If the Buckeyes handle their business and Wisconsin beats the Huskers as expected, Ohio State will somehow wind up back on the good side of the bye line despite their up and down play this season.

Opponent: This seed will get the winner of Nebraska/Iowa/Ohio State against the loser of today's Purdue/Northwestern game.

No. 5 seed – Nebraska/Iowa/Ohio State

If Ohio State wins, a Nebraska win would give the Buckeyes this spot. If the Huskers can't handle their business in that scenario, they instead find themselves the five seed. If Ohio State loses, Iowa gets this spot. If both Ohio State and Nebraska win, the Buckeyes will be the 5.

Opponent: Purdue.

No. 6 seed – Iowa/Ohio State

A bit redundant at this point, but if Ohio State wins today, Iowa's the six. If Ohio State loses, the Buckeyes are it.

Opponent: Northwestern.

No. 7 seed – Minnesota/Illinois

If Minnesota wins, they're the seven. If Minnesota loses, Illinois gets it.

Opponent: Penn State.

No. 8 seed – Indiana/Minnesota

A Minnesota win would give the eight seed to Tom Crean's Hoosiers. A Minnesota loss to PSU would drop the Gophers to the 8 spot.

Opponent: With a Minnesota win, Illinois. If the Gophers slip up, Indiana.

No. 9 seed – Illinois/Indiana

As mentioned directly above, a Gophers win gives this spot to the Illini. A Minnesota loss makes Indiana the 9.

Opponent: Indiana (Minnesota win) or Minnesota (Minnesota loss).

No. 10 seed – Penn State

Our only other set in stone spot belongs to Pat Chambers' Nittany Lions. They open play Thursday night in Indianapolis at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Opponent: Minnesota (Minnesota win v. PSU) or Illinois (Gopher loss).

No. 11 seed – Northwestern

The Wildcats' win over Purdue means they'll open their 2014 Big Ten Tournament during the late game Thursday night, likely tipping off around 9:00 p.m. ET.

Opponent: Iowa or Ohio State (see scenarios above).

No. 12 seed – Purdue

Purdue's loss means the Boilermakers finish last in the conference for the first time ever. The Boilermakers will open against the five seed around 2:30 p.m. ET Thursday.

Opponent: Nebraska, Iowa, or Ohio State (possibilities described above).
 

Gold Vision said:
Basically no change. 3 more wins is the only way to really increase our RPI.
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Yes, a win today and I think our RPI will be 48 to 52.

If we win our next two and lose on Friday.. I think our RPI will be low 50s (52 or so). If we win our next three and lose on Saturday in the tourney, our RPI should make a BIG jump to high 30's or around 40. The only way to really improve the RPI is to get to Saturday. That said, getting to Friday is a minimum at this point as that would keep our RPI in the bubble conversation.
 

Gold Vision said:
Iowa would have their RPI plummet to around 60 if the lose that first game. I think they would definitely be sweating it out.
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Not to re-start 'that' debate, but I'm not sure it would plummet that low. Certainly into the 50's. And they have ditched 'last 10' as official criteria, but that doesn't mean it's not a factor. If they lose Thursday, they'll have lost 6 of 7, be 9-10 in the B1G and be in complete free fall. I wouldn't let them in, but I'm biased.
 

howeda7 said:
Not to re-start 'that' debate, but I'm not sure it would plummet that low. Certainly into the 50's. And they have ditched 'last 10' as official criteria, but that doesn't mean it's not a factor. If they lose Thursday, they'll have lost 6 of 7, be 9-10 in the B1G and be in complete free fall. I wouldn't let them in, but I'm biased.
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If it was ditched as criteria, how can it be a factor?
 



st joes goes down and vermont down big in the Am East semis.
 

howeda7 said:
Just because it's not listed on the resume sheet, doesn't mean the members voting on them aren't fully aware of it.
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So what you're saying is conjecture, and I can point to our favorite team as an example of why you're wrong.
 

Gopherguy0723 said:
So what you're saying is conjecture, and I can point to our favorite team as an example of why you're wrong.
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I'm saying something not being official criteria doesn't mean they can't consider it and discuss it anyway. If Iowa loses on Thursday and we win, I'd take our chances over Iowa's. Irregardless of last 10, 9-10 in conference with an RPI in the 50's does not make one a lock.
 


howeda7 said:
Can't hurt, but I fear St. Joe's is in anyway.
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makes their tourney game much more interesting. la salle is 105 in RPI so there's another 100+ loss and it was at home. they drop their 1st tourney game and it gets very hairy for them
 

Are we still feeling like one win at the BTT leaves us at about 50% chance of getting in, and two wins has us feeling pretty good?
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Are we still feeling like one win at the BTT leaves us at about 50% chance of getting in, and two wins has us feeling pretty good?
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Yes. I think we had a good enough weekend to help the chances, but the Atlantic 10 is a puzzle. They have a lot of teams that look to be in, and I don't know if they are really deserving of that many bids. All of their best wins are in-conference opponents.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Are we still feeling like one win at the BTT leaves us at about 50% chance of getting in, and two wins has us feeling pretty good?
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1 win = 33-40% chance IMO. Probably comes down to how much they like SOS and how much they factor in Dre's injury. 2 win 90%.
 

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