Bubblicious Friday: Productive Day On The Bubble For Gophers

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SelectionSunday

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Make no bones about it, Thursday was a productive day on the bubble for the Gophers, but they're still straddling that line. Beating Wisconsin would leave no doubt. Short that, we're looking at something in the neighborhood of a 50-55% chance to get a bid Sunday. My biggest concern now is the lack of top-50 wins. Iowa's loss means the Gophers now only have 2, and absent beating the Badgers that number will stay there unless Florida State and/or Richmond kick butt in their conference tournaments.

One quick note. Contrary to what Joe Lunardi is throwing out there, SMU is nowhere near a lock. The Mustangs are the team to watch on Selection Sunday. If they get a bid, I'm going to have a serious problem with that. Don't deserve a bid, no way, no how.

This is the final Bubblicious report. I must say, this is the most difficult time I've had separating the final bids in quite some time. It's unusual to have this many bids still available with only 3 days left in the season. Will return in the wee hours of Sunday morning with a final "Field of 68" projection.

AVAILABLE BIDS: 9

Auto Bids/Placeholders (32)
Stony Brook (America East), Cincinnati (American), Virginia (ACC), MERCER (Atlantic Sun), Saint Louis (Atlantic 10), Creighton (Big East), Weber State (Big Sky), COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South), Michigan (Big Ten), Kansas (Big XII), UC-Irvine (Big West), DELAWARE (Colonial), Louisiana Tech (Conference USA), MILWAUKEE (Horizon), HARVARD (Ivy), MANHATTAN (MAAC), Western Michigan (MAC), North Carolina Central (MEAC), WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley), San Diego State (Mountain West), MOUNT SAINT MARY'S (NEC), EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC), Arizona (Pac 12), AMERICAN (Patriot), Florida (SEC), WOFFORD (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), Georgia State (Sun Belt), GONZAGA (WCC), Utah Valley (WAC).

Locks (27)
Villanova (5), Wisconsin (6), Duke (7), Iowa State (10), Syracuse (11), VCU (14), New Mexico (16), UMass (17), Kentucky (19), UCLA (21), North Carolina (22), Ohio State (23), Louisville (24), UConn (25), Michigan State (26), Oklahoma (27), Oregon (28), George Washington (30), Texas (31), Baylor (32), Colorado (33), Memphis (35), Stanford (38), Pitt (40), Nebraska (41), Oklahoma State (45), Xavier (46).

The Bubblers (16 battling for 9 spots)
Southern Miss (29) -- vs. Louisiana Tech, 5:30 p.m. (Conference USA semifinals)
BYU (34) -- SEASON COMPLETED
Dayton (39) -- vs. Saint Joseph's, 1:30 p.m. (Atlantic 10 quarterfinals)
Arizona State (42) -- SEASON COMPLETED
Saint Joseph's (43) -- vs. Dayton, 1:30 p.m. (Atlantic 10 quarterfinals)
Tennessee (44) -- vs. South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (SEC quarterfinals)
GOPHERS (47) -- vs. Wisconsin, 5:30 p.m. (Big Ten quarterfinals)
Missouri (49) -- vs. Florida, noon (SEC quarterfinals)
Kansas State (50) -- SEASON COMPLETED
Providence (51) -- vs. Seton Hall, 6 p.m. (Big East semifinals)
Florida State (52) -- vs. Virginia, 11 a.m. (ACC quarterfinals)
SMU (53) -- SEASON COMPLETED
Iowa (54) -- SEASON COMPLETED
Green Bay (57) -- SEASON COMPLETED
NC State (62) -- vs. Syracuse, 6 p.m. (ACC quarterfinals)
Illinois (64) -- vs. Michigan, 11 a.m. (Big Ten quarterfinals)

NIT Automatic Bids (9) -- regular-season champs who don't get NCAA at-large bid)
Belmont (Ohio Valley)
Boston U (Patriot)
Davidson (Southern)
Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)
Green Bay (Horizon) -- miniscule chance for an at-large bid.
High Point (Big South)
Iona (MAAC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Vermont (America East)
 

Thanks, SS. Does look like it's coming down to the wire if we don't take care of things ourselves Friday. Iowa and SMU both will be interesting ... Lunardi, etc. had them as locks for so long but IMO they both played their way out.

One of the best things that could happen tomorrow, other than us beating Sconnie, is maybe for Southern Miss to beat LaTech and then win its conf on Saturday, thereby freeing up another at-large. Hopefully the loser of Dayton-St. Joe's will be out as well, though that seems like it'll be a close call.
 

I have no idea how much weight 'momentum' carries, or of it even carries any at all within the context of these decisions, but if it does happen to matter, it's difficult for me to see how Iowa (losers of 6 of their past 7 and and 8 of their past 10 games), shouldn't be hurt by that when it comes time for selecting. If they were to make the tournament, they could only be described as doing so limpingly inept, and not limping due to any injuries, but rather just simply failure in the end.

So does that matter, SS? Does that matter how a team either roars or limps at the end? I would really love to hear your opinions on that especially in regards to Iowa this season, because that seems to me to be a team which has perilously played its way right out.

We haven't exactly been playing lights-out either, and in fact far from it, but the one thing I do know is that we entered this tourney as a #7 seed which somehow managed to outlast #10, and how our game was never really in moment's doubt (though it did get a bit dodgy and filled with semi-anxiety right there near the end), but yet how Iowa entered as a #6 and fell to a #11, and how they were pretty much thoroughly outplayed for the entirety the length of the game.

I feel and fear their earlier hype is just what's going to wash them in to the tournament no matter what, because that hype was so strong, as you hear mediots fulminating upon how just how strong and talented they are, and granted, they do have exceptional talent, such there's hardly a player there I wouldn't accept willingly as a Gopher, but still, doesn't the end result speak ultimately for itself, and why and how on earth should they be granted free and automatic pass given way they've fallen apart the end of this season?

I just think it's so inherently unfair, how they've been so automatically pencilled in despite their terrible struggles of late, while other teams which are surging or at least maintaining their own, lie barely more than afterthought.

Either way, how I did so much love watching them go down to Northwestern last night. I found that just absolutely beautiful, and always will.
 

It very well could be us and Iowa battling for one spot. Win today and we get it, lose today and they do. While you can make an argument for both to be in, it seems unlikely the committee will take too many "meh" teams from just one conference. So as far as I'm concerned, today IS a tournament game and we need to win to move on.
 

The biggest thing that hurt us yesterday was Stanford winning. They moved from Bubble to lock with their win yesterday.
 


So Iowa wins and falls below us and out of the top 50 RPI. We win and move above Iowa into the top 50 RPI. Therefore by splitting our regular season series, Iowa now gains their regular season win over us as a top 50 RPI win and we lose our regular season win as a top 50 RPI win. If the number of top 50 wins is a big factor that is just dumb.

With our stronger SOS and our better RPI score if they get in and we don't, that would stink.
 

If the "entire body of work" is truly what matters, I think Iowa is likely to get in. But like you said, it's awfully tough to ignore the Hawkeyes' limp to the finish line. Iowa is certainly more deserving of a bid than SMU (a lock according to Lunardi). My hunch right now is if the Hawkeyes make the field, we'll see them in the First Four.

As Iowa pertains to the Gophers, I'm not real worried about them getting a bid ahead of the Gophers. A lot can change n the next two days, but my sense is they'll either both get in or they'll both be left out. I think they're a lot tougher call for the Selection Committee than SMU is.
 

Iowa reminds me of the Gophs last year. They did enough mid season to just get in, no matter what happened in the conference tourney.

SS-do you think SMU would even be a bubble team if say, Joe Blow was their coach? I think Larry Brown's name carries weight with a lot of bracketologists.
 

Breakin' The Plane said:
SS-do you think SMU would even be a bubble team if say, Joe Blow was their coach? I think Larry Brown's name carries weight with a lot of bracketologists.
Click to expand...

SMU would be, and is, a bubble team no matter who their coach is. It doesn't matter what carries weight with the bracketologists because they're not the ones selecting the field. Name recognition of a coach/program has nothing to do with whether a team gets selected. It's been proven many, many times in the past. Jim Boeheim has been left out a couple times when he had bubble teams, and don't forget about Kentucky last season.
 



Who do we pull for in St. Joe v. Dayton? Does it matter any more? Are they both in no matter what?

SS, did you get any sleep last night?
 


I'm just glad the committee that will actually be picking the field on Sunday hasn't been putting out daily/weekly brackets for months like all these bracketologists have. For the experts to move Iowa to the bubble or completely out of their bracket forces them to basically admit that they were wrong for the last month or two when they had Iowa as a lock. Egos come into play, IMO. The folks that will be doing the real picking don't have to worry about that.

That being said, I still say the fact that the Gophers are even in the discussion this year is icing on the cake. Regardless what happens today and Sunday, I feel comfortable saying that they exceeded my expectations this year and it's been a fun ride.
 

SS, where do you see Illinois with a win over Michigan?
 



SS - Can you put this year into perspective? It seems this year we are literally teetering on the line.
Has it been this close in other, "bubble" years?

(I understand anytime you are a bubble team it's close)
 

jaymil said:
While it's close, Palm still has Missouri in over Minnesota. I just don't get it. Their resumes are similar as far as wins and losses, but Minnesota's SOS is 6 compared to Missouri's 76. Minnesota's non-conference SOS is 43. Missouri's is 135. If Missouri loses today and still gets in over us I'm going to be upset.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/MINN/MIZZOU
Click to expand...

For anyone who has Missouri over us right now, it's hard to see how us losing to WI and Mizzou losing to Florida would cause us to leapfrog them. I just continue to be flabbergasted by Lunardi and Palm's placement of the Gophers behind teams like Missouri, Providence, and still Iowa, SMU, etc., and if the selection committee agrees I'll just shake my head.

And if you're going to use stats to make a selection you better understand how those stats were created, as XMan's example above points out -- Iowa gains a top 50 win and we lose a top 50 win by them falling below us yesterday. Similarly, it drives me crazy when announcers point out our lack of top-50 road/neutral wins, without pointing out that we won at Richmond who was a solid top-50 team before cratering with injuries/departures long after we beat them.
 

How much does our RPI change if teams we have played that are still alive win (Syracuse, Fl St, Richmond)?
 

Holy Man said:
Who do we pull for in St. Joe v. Dayton? Does it matter any more? Are they both in no matter what?

SS, did you get any sleep last night?
Click to expand...

Dayton. I like Dayton's resume better, so I'd rather have them win. Even though Saint Joe's swept Dayton in the regular season, Saint Joe's has more the look of a bubbler so I'd prefer they lose.

I got about 4 hours Holy Man!

I just broke it down a little further over breakfast, and here's what I came up with. Of the 9 available at-large bids, in my estimation 3 teams will wrap it up simply by winning today:

(1) Dayton/Saint Joseph's winner.

(2) Tennessee -- Vols have done enough overall & down the stretch to earn a bid simply by avoiding a bad loss today vs. South Carolina. But if they slip up here, all bets are off.

(3) Gophers -- win and you're in. Not a bad spot to be. Embrace it, Gophers.

Not all, but a few things Gopher fans would prefer not happen today:

(1) A Missouri win over Florida (wouldn't lock it for Tigers, but would put them in great shape).

(2) A NC State win over Syracuse (double whammy. ... legitimately adds State to the at-large mix while at the same time hurting Gophers' SOS, even if only marginally).

(3) An Illinois win over Michigan. If the Illini win today, they become a legit at-large candidate. Would add to Illini's sprint to the finish line (the anti-Iowa). We don't need another Big Ten bubbler (also Iowa) causing Gopher angst.

(4) Do not want UNLV or Boise State to upset San Diego State/New Mexico, respectively, in the Mountain West semis. If UNLV or Boise State win the MWC, that would be a definite bid-stealer.

Would help the Gophers if:

(1) Richmond beats VCU (helps Gophers' SOS, maybe even gets the Spiders close to the top 50).

(2) Ohio State beats Nebraska (would pretty much guarantee the Buckeyes remain a RPI top-25 win for the Gophers).

(3) TAMU-Corpus Christi beats Sam Houston State. That would give TAMU-CC an opportunity to win the Southland title on Saturday, perhaps becoming the Gophers' 3rd win over an automatic qualifier.

(4) Seton Hall beat Providence. I'll take my chances that Seton Hall wouldn't steal the Big East auto bid vs. Creighton/Xavier (both locks) in the Saturday's Big East title game.
 


XMan said:
With our stronger SOS and our better RPI score if they get in and we don't, that would stink.
Click to expand...

SOS is in RPI, so I think the selection committee has been leaning harder on RPI in the last couple of years. It might be very interesting if the committee is trying to choose between FSU Iowa and Minn for that last spot

unlike Iowa, we're still playing so at least we have some control over our destiny.


wasn't there a missed layin at the end of regulation against purdue, which eventually led to an overtime loss. would we be a lock if that went in?
 

SelectionSunday said:
Dayton. I like Dayton's resume better, so I'd rather have them win. Even though Saint Joe's swept Dayton in the regular season, Saint Joe's has more the look of a bubbler so I'd prefer they lose.

I got about 4 hours Holy Man!

I just broke it down a little further over breakfast, and here's what I came up with. Of the 9 available at-large bids, in my estimation 3 teams will wrap it up simply by winning today:

(1) Dayton/Saint Joseph's winner.

(2) Tennessee -- Vols have done enough overall & down the stretch to earn a bid simply by avoiding a bad loss today vs. South Carolina. But if they slip up here, all bets are off.

(3) Gophers -- win and you're in. Not a bad spot to be. Embrace it, Gophers.

Not all, but a few things Gopher fans would prefer not happen today:

(1) A Missouri win over Florida (wouldn't lock it for Tigers, but would put them in great shape).

(2) A NC State win over Syracuse (double whammy. ... legitimately adds State to the at-large mix while at the same time hurting Gophers' SOS, even if only marginally).

(3) An Illinois win over Michigan. If the Illini win today, they become a legit at-large candidate. Would add to Illini's sprint to the finish line (the anti-Iowa). We don't need another Big Ten bubbler (also Iowa) causing Gopher angst.

(4) Do not want UNLV or Boise State to upset San Diego State/New Mexico, respectively, in the Mountain West semis. If UNLV or Boise State win the MWC, that would be a definite bid-stealer.

Would help the Gophers if:

(1) Richmond beats VCU (helps Gophers' SOS, maybe even gets the Spiders close to the top 50).

(2) Ohio State beats Nebraska (would pretty much guarantee the Buckeyes remain a RPI top-25 win for the Gophers).

(3) TAMU-Corpus Christi beats Sam Houston State. That would give TAMU-CC an opportunity to win the Southland title on Saturday, perhaps becoming the Gophers' 3rd win over an automatic qualifier.

(4) Seton Hall beat Providence. I'll take my chances that Seton Hall wouldn't steal the Big East auto bid vs. Creighton/Xavier (both locks) in the Saturday's Big East title game.
Click to expand...


Southern Mississippi v LaTech ... better for them to win, on the chance that while strengthening their at large status they can get the auto-bid by winning one more? Or lose, hurting their at large status but perhaps not enough? (Obviously, worst scenario is if they win today, lose tomorrow)
 

WanderingGopher said:
Southern Mississippi v LaTech ... better for them to win, on the chance that while strengthening their at large status they can get the auto-bid by winning one more? Or lose, hurting their at large status but perhaps not enough? (Obviously, worst scenario is if they win today, lose tomorrow)
Click to expand...

Would be better if Southern Miss wins the title, but not real worried about them as an at-large. They're a RPI fraud.
 

GopherOhana said:
SOS is in RPI, so I think the selection committee has been leaning harder on RPI in the last couple of years. It might be very interesting if the committee is trying to choose between FSU Iowa and Minn for that last spot

unlike Iowa, we're still playing so at least we have some control over our destiny.


wasn't there a missed layin at the end of regulation against purdue, which eventually led to an overtime loss. would we be a lock if that went in?
Click to expand...

If either Purdue or the NW games end in a W (made layups), I think we would be in good shape. I don't pretend to know the RPI ramifications or even understand any of this bubble stuff, but taking a 100+ RPI loss off our resume and adding a win period would have to help a lot I'd guess.
 

It's frustrating to see 3 teams below us with RPI's in the 50's (SMU, IA, K-State) that appear to be such locks. On what basis? If we lose today and don't make it, I can live with that. But if Iowa or SMU make it and we don't, that will be tough to swallow, especially Iowa.
 

GopherOhana said:
SOS is in RPI, so I think the selection committee has been leaning harder on RPI in the last couple of years. It might be very interesting if the committee is trying to choose between FSU Iowa and Minn for that last spot

unlike Iowa, we're still playing so at least we have some control over our destiny.


wasn't there a missed layin at the end of regulation against purdue, which eventually led to an overtime loss. would we be a lock if that went in?
Click to expand...

Yes. If we'd won either of the NW or Purdue games, we'd have an RPI of about 37 right now and be a lock, IMO.
 

I went through using this website http://www.bracketmatrix.com and looked at a bunch of them and I think losses by these teams today could help the gophers possibly get into the tournament: Providence, Pitt, Tenn, FL St, Xavier, Dayton, Missouri (we will agree to disagree on Dayton vs St. Joe's SS) also had a few dark horses that we probably want to lose as well: Illinois, NC St
 

jaymil said:
While it's close, Palm still has Missouri in over Minnesota. I just don't get it. Their resumes are similar as far as wins and losses, but Minnesota's SOS is 6 compared to Missouri's 76. Minnesota's non-conference SOS is 43. Missouri's is 135. If Missouri loses today and still gets in over us I'm going to be upset.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/MINN/MIZZOU
Click to expand...

I guess I don't quite get how RPI works. How can our SOS for both in conference and non conference games be so much better, yet our RPI's are almost the same at 47/49 for division, and 24/23 non division.
 

MNGreatest said:
I guess I don't quite get how RPI works. How can our SOS for both in conference and non conference games be so much better, yet our RPI's are almost the same at 47/49 for division, and 24/23 non division.
Click to expand...

Because Missouri has won more games.
 

Will the committee consider that Andre Hollins was out for our string of losses? That could potentially swing things in our favor.
 


Mayne Street said:
Will the committee consider that Andre Hollins was out for our string of losses? That could potentially swing things in our favor.
Click to expand...

From what I've heard, no. It only gets considered for seeding.
 

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