Bowl question

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metrolax said:
Its quite a day when you are gaming out bowl possibilities, and have USC, Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin mentioned as "jumping ahead" of you
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Remember USC is not going to be sloted with the Big Ten in bowl games. As they will be sloted with the Pac 12 for bowl games.
 


Arnold Babar said:
Detroit, here we come
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I don't like to be the downer guy here, but I'm afraid this is the most likely outcome. Following Gopher bowl bids for decades, we should know by now that somehow another loophole works against our favor.

Gaard always likes to say the Gophers aren't the only team that gets screwed on these bowl bids by bringing up the Citrus bowl and how we jumped Nebraska that year. The part he always leaves out is Nebraska couldn't go to the Citrus bowl because they had been there the year prior. I can't remember a time in which Minnesota gets pulled up to a bowl based on anything within MN's control (IE head-to-head with said team, better conference record vs overall, perception of fans traveling better, etc...). Nope, we've only been pulled up based on another team ahead of us not being able to fill a spot because of XYZ rule.

I remember last year the Big Ten had an outline of bowl placement rules posted on their website. I can't seem to find it anymore and I recall reading an article explaining how the bowl's themselves have mor autonomy in the selection process given the new playoff format. But if we assume last year's guidelines on selection process, what will give us any confidence we won't end up in Detroit? Hypothetically speaking, if we assume the top four teams go the playoffs, that leaves Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin as likely bowl eligible teams all in that 6-7 win 'tier'. All of which are going for the Citrus, Reliaquest, Music, and Mayo bowls. From that list of teams, My money is on MN being the one left out. That bumps us down to New York, Phoenix, or Detroit. My money is on Rutgers as a solid lock for New York leaving just Phoenix and Detroit left and two teams from the aforementioned teams above to fill those spots.

It's also a good possibility only three Big Ten teams go to the playoffs pushing us down even further.

Still a lot can happen, and I know NE, MI, and WI aren't bowl eligible. My money is they all will be, and their brand and clout will easily pull them ahead of even a 7-win MN team. Hope I'm wrong.
 

W404613 said:
The part he always leaves out is Nebraska couldn't go to the Citrus bowl because they had been there the year prior.
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Nebraska was in the Gator Bowl the year prior. And, didn't travel well at all. Sold less than 2000 tickets from their allotment. That scared the Citrus Bowl, so they took the Gophers over the Huskers.

Cornhuskers fans are well known for traveling to regular season road games all over the country, but won't travel to mid level bowl games very well. Although they haven't been to a bowl game in nearly a decade, so maybe that would change this year.

That said, I generally agree with you. The Gophers usually get screwed by the bowls and will likely suffer the same fate this season.
 
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The "Gophers don't travel to bowl games" gig is a self-fulfilling prophecy. When the Gophers qualify for a January 1st bowl game in Florida, there has been incredible attendance.

However, sites like the Music City Bowl not taking the Gophers because they don't think we attend well sends us to bowls that fans don't care to visit as much. Attendance was alright at the Guaranteed Rate bowl in 2021, but cold weather bowl games in Detroit (again) or NYC against .500 MAC/ACC teams just doesn't draw fan interest.

The bowls that fans want to attend may not offer bids because of "poor attendance" which relegates the Gophers to bowl locations Gopher fans have either recently attended or aren't drawn to, no wonder the attendance falters.
 
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Iowa and Illinois are likely to win out and land in the Citrus and Reliquest IMO. Iowa hasn’t played in Tampa forever and is obviously known to travel extremely well.

That leaves MN, Rutgers, Mich, and one of Wisconsin/Neb for Music City, Mayo, Pinstripe, and Phoenix. If both Wisconsin and Nebraska (or a dark horse like MSU) become eligible, then Detroit is in play for all.
  • If MN goes 2-0, almost certainly Nashville. Tampa would be in play if Iowa stumbles, but unlikely
  • 1-1, I’d bet almost any amount it’s Mayo (where they’ve never played)
  • 0-2, any game is in play, but I’d honestly probably still wager on Mayo given the B1Gs active role in placement.
 


MGGopher said:
Iowa and Illinois are likely to win out and land in the Citrus and Reliquest IMO. Iowa hasn’t played in Tampa forever and is obviously known to travel extremely well.

That leaves MN, Rutgers, Mich, and one of Wisconsin/Neb for Music City, Mayo, Pinstripe, and Phoenix. If both Wisconsin and Nebraska (or a dark horse like MSU) become eligible, then Detroit is in play for all.
  • If MN goes 2-0, almost certainly Nashville. Tampa would be in play if Iowa stumbles, but unlikely
  • 1-1, I’d bet almost any amount it’s Mayo (where they’ve never played)
  • 0-2, any game is in play, but I’d honestly probably still wager on Mayo given the B1Gs active role in placement.
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Yup. The only adjustment I would make is that 0-2 would make Arizona baseball bowl or Yankee bowl the two favorites with Mayo being the third
 



Gameday conditions in Madison appear similar to yesterday but about 10 degrees chillier. Overcast but no precipitation chance to speak of.

Fine with me. Let's not have conditions influence the performance and play for this last game and the better team that day win.
 

We have a handful of kids that were here in 2019 to attend that bowl. Otherwise the kids on our team now have never experienced anything relatively speaking but a shitty ball game. Going to the third tier bowl game certainly beats the alternative but has to be disappointing for the kids.
 

Wi beats us and MSU beats Rutgers and there are 14 eligible B1G teams.

Likely 4 to playoffs.

Possibly 10 teams to place. With transfers and opt outs it will be an interesting bowl season. 8-10 teams could be 5-4/4-5 in conference play.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Wi beats us and MSU beats Rutgers and there are 14 eligible B1G teams.

Likely 4 to playoffs.

Possibly 10 teams to place. With transfers and opt outs it will be an interesting bowl season. 8-10 teams could be 5-4/4-5 in conference play.
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Wisconsin likely makes a bowl even without winning
If northwestern upsets Illinois they’ll make a bowl via APR too
 



Some guy said:
Wisconsin likely makes a bowl even without winning
If northwestern upsets Illinois they’ll make a bowl via APR too
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I forgot about APR. So Wisconsin can have Detroit this year :) If things go as expected next weekend, you’ve probably got:
  1. Citrus: Illinois
  2. Reliaquest: Iowa
  3. Music City: I’ll say Minnesota. Hasn’t been forever and would be the next best team by conference record at 5-4.
  4. Mayo: Rutgers. Closest team by proximity and has never been to this game.
  5. Pinstripe: Michigan. Gotta think Mich in the Big Apple would be a huge coup for the conf.
  6. Phoenix: Nebraska. They’ll be 3-6 in conference if they lose to Iowa.
  7. Detroit: Wisconsin on APR at 5-7.
Obviously if Minnesota loses to Wisconsin and/or Nebraska beats Iowa and/or MSU beats Rutgers and/or NW beats Illinois you’ve got some super unpredictable scenarios. I think a couple of those are VERY unlikely, though.
 

MGGopher said:
I forgot about APR. So Wisconsin can have Detroit this year :) If things go as expected next weekend, you’ve probably got:
  1. Citrus: Illinois
  2. Reliaquest: Iowa
  3. Music City: I’ll say Minnesota. Hasn’t been forever and would be the next best team by conference record at 5-4.
  4. Mayo: Rutgers. Closest team by proximity and has never been to this game.
  5. Pinstripe: Michigan. Gotta think Mich in the Big Apple would be a huge coup for the conf.
  6. Phoenix: Nebraska. They’ll be 3-6 in conference if they lose to Iowa.
  7. Detroit: Wisconsin on APR at 5-7.
Obviously if Minnesota loses to Wisconsin and/or Nebraska beats Iowa and/or MSU beats Rutgers and/or NW beats Illinois you’ve got some super unpredictable scenarios. I think a couple of those are VERY unlikely, though.
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It’s pretty crazy where if MN loses, they could get bounced all the way down to NY, Phoenix, Detroit, or even a non big ten affiliated bowl


Alternate scenario
MN > WI
IA > NE
OSU > MI
NU > IL
MSU > Rut

IA 6-3 - Reliaquest almost guaranteed regardless of what happens
MN 5-4 MN or IL for citrus
IL 5-4 MN or IL for citrus
MI 4-5 (6-6)
MSU 4-5 (6-6)
NE 4-5 (6-6)
NU 3-6 (5-7 but in via APR)
Wi 3-6 (5-7 but in via APR)


All of a sudden it is MN or IL for citrus bowl.
I kind of think it’s IL regardless though. Even with Mn winning the head to head, IL has already clinched a better overall record and has never played in the game.
Also a chance that citrus prefers Iowa in back to back years to Illinois.
 

Also think the SEC having the issues they’re having makes it likely the big ten has a rough bowl season.

If SEC gets just 3 playoff teams:
SEC 4 is going to play Illinois or Minnesota
Citrus bowl is a pure pick of the bowl. Essentially can pick whatever team they want.
If Georgia drops another game it could be them.
Could be bama

I would not pick MN or ILL to fair very well in either of those 😂
 



Possible the math has changed since I last looked it up two weeks ago

5 spots
2 guaranteed to be won due to two 5 win vs 5 win games.
3 spots left.


5 win team listed first.
North Texas probably a favorite vs temple
NC state probably a dog Vs UNC
Kansas maybe a favorite vs Baylor (who could still technically make big 12 title game…Kansas is strange)
Cincinatti a dog to TCU
Michigan state probably a dog to Rutgers but close to a pick em
I would guess Wisconsin vs Minnesota is close to a pick em
New Mexico probably a favorite vs Hawaii
Oregon state a dog to Boise state
Auburn a dog to bama
La Monroe a dog to Louisiana
Coastal Carolina a favorite vs Georgia state
App state a dog to Ga Southern


Probably need favorites to win plus one upset to get a 5 win team into a bowl. Last year it came down to a missed field goal in a game to get Minnesota in.

Assuming all the right teams here is the list of teams that could hypothetically make it. But it would take results going basically 12/12 their way.

List of APR teams at 4 or 5 wins in order.
Northwestern - 4 wins - northwestern winning would make them the first APR team eligible
Cincinnati - 5 wins - they’re already eligible. This is the first one where the math really changed the last two weeks against wisconsin
Wisconsin - 5 wins - win and in, lose and need help by way of 3 APR teams getting in or 2 plus northwestern losing
Air Force - 4 wins- need to win to join the list. Would still need a lot of help.
Wake forest - 4 wins- need to win plus a ton of help
Auburn - 5 wins - need a ton of help
Virginia - 5 wins - need help
UCF - 4 wins -
Utah - 4 wins
Coastal Carolina 5 wins
 
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Jiffy Lube Bowl in Williston ND against Vanderbilt, where we lose 19-5 with Jerry Kill on the opposing sideline.
 

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