I don't like to be the downer guy here, but I'm afraid this is the most likely outcome. Following Gopher bowl bids for decades, we should know by now that somehow another loophole works against our favor.
Gaard always likes to say the Gophers aren't the only team that gets screwed on these bowl bids by bringing up the Citrus bowl and how we jumped Nebraska that year. The part he always leaves out is Nebraska couldn't go to the Citrus bowl because they had been there the year prior. I can't remember a time in which Minnesota gets pulled up to a bowl based on anything within MN's control (IE head-to-head with said team, better conference record vs overall, perception of fans traveling better, etc...). Nope, we've only been pulled up based on another team ahead of us not being able to fill a spot because of XYZ rule.
I remember last year the Big Ten had an outline of bowl placement rules posted on their website. I can't seem to find it anymore and I recall reading an article explaining how the bowl's themselves have mor autonomy in the selection process given the new playoff format. But if we assume last year's guidelines on selection process, what will give us any confidence we won't end up in Detroit? Hypothetically speaking, if we assume the top four teams go the playoffs, that leaves Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin as likely bowl eligible teams all in that 6-7 win 'tier'. All of which are going for the Citrus, Reliaquest, Music, and Mayo bowls. From that list of teams, My money is on MN being the one left out. That bumps us down to New York, Phoenix, or Detroit. My money is on Rutgers as a solid lock for New York leaving just Phoenix and Detroit left and two teams from the aforementioned teams above to fill those spots.
It's also a good possibility only three Big Ten teams go to the playoffs pushing us down even further.
Still a lot can happen, and I know NE, MI, and WI aren't bowl eligible. My money is they all will be, and their brand and clout will easily pull them ahead of even a 7-win MN team. Hope I'm wrong.