Big Ten football coaches who are on the hot seat in the 2024 season (#1. PJ Fleck, Minnesota)

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Last year was one bad year. PJ had earned some leash, but if we are back to 9-11 win seasons and years like last year are our once-in-a-while down years, he will be fine. If we have another year like last, I think then his sear warms a little as we watch the following year to see if this has become a new trend.

If he misses a bowl game, then I think things start heating up quicker and the next year becomes very important to his job, but still probably not in jeopardy next season.
 



StudentSectionMenace said:
I don't think that this is an outrageous take. I don't think he's number one on the list, but I could see top five. If Fleck didn't have the offseason he has had, then his seat would probably be pretty warm. Yes, a lot of things went south last year that were out of his control and contributed to the less than stellar record. However, there were multiple times where Fleck's in-game coaching contributed to losing very winnable games.
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So your take is he would be on the hot seat if he didn't do the things that would keep him off the hot seat?
 

Fleck is mainly bulletproof because he’s Coyle’s handpicked figurehead and he negotiated a very expensive contract should MN decide to fire him during or after this season.

The old reasons about not wanting to move on because the program would need to start over in terms of recruitment and development don’t hold up as well with unrestricted free agency.

I’d guess 98+% of fans including yours truly are hoping for a return to the 2019 magic and willing to give Fleck another season or two to show he can get the team to a legit top 25 performance level. I do think the bloom is off the rose a little bit but the recent influx of talent (on paper) and retention (Darius) is a huge reason for optimism. However, ballyhooed draft classes sometimes don’t turn out. There is a reason the games still get played. Big Ten wins and losses. Somebody here patented that, I think.
 


Buyout.

that's it. No way on Earth would Coyle consider dumping Fleck because Coyle would have to write a check for a butt-load of money. a check with 8 figures and lots of zeroes.

in order to get fired for cause, Fleck would have to put up something like back-to-back 3- or 4-win seasons and have a bunch of key players leaving via the portal - or have some type of significant off-the-field incident/problem.

as long as Fleck can figure out a way to win at least 6 games and make a Bowl Game, he can be at MN for as long as he wants.
 

If Fleck is ever fired it won’t be Coyle doing it imo. Coyle much more likely to be fired than PJ
 

I have not heard one person outside of this message board that ever talk about firing Fleck. The casuals especially...the ones who want every coach fired never even mention it. Beating Wisconsin a couple times and Iowa tends to get people off a coaches back.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Buyout.

that's it. No way on Earth would Coyle consider dumping Fleck because Coyle would have to write a check for a butt-load of money. a check with 8 figures and lots of zeroes.

in order to get fired for cause, Fleck would have to put up something like back-to-back 3- or 4-win seasons and have a bunch of key players leaving via the portal - or have some type of significant off-the-field incident/problem.

as long as Fleck can figure out a way to win at least 6 games and make a Bowl Game, he can be at MN for as long as he wants.
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Latest number I show is $7 million and it drops to $5 million Jan 1, 2025.
 



Dave H said:
Latest number I show is $7 million and it drops to $5 million Jan 1, 2025.
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^

That’s the amount if another school hires Fleck away. If MN fires Fleck he is due 65% of the remaining base, supplemental, and retention bonus left on the six year contract which runs through Dec 31, 2029. Not going to recalculate but IIRC is roughly $18-19M if fired before Jan 1 2025 and you can do the math from there if you look at the numbers in the linked document.

It’s a favorable contract for PJ, for sure. Low buyout for a different school should he outperform but an expensive one for MN should he underperform. I’m not as convinced better positions are knocking on the door right now, sorry.

Page 55 here:
 

Pompous Elitist said:
^

That’s the amount if another school hires Fleck away. If MN fires Fleck he is due 65% of the remaining base, supplemental, and retention bonus left on the six year contract which runs through Dec 31, 2029. Not going to recalculate but IIRC is roughly $18-19M if fired before Jan 1 2025 and you can do the math from there if you look at the numbers in the linked document.

It’s a favorable contract for PJ, for sure. Low buyout for a different school should he outperform but an expensive one for MN should he underperform. I’m not as convinced better positions are knocking on the door right now, sorry.

Page 55 here:
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correct. If Fleck is fired before Dec 31, 2024 - year 1 of the amended contract, the payout comes to roughly $22.8-million if my math is correct. (based on 65% of remaining salary + retention). the next year it drops to about $18-Million.

in other words, he ain't gettin' fired.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
correct. If Fleck is fired before Dec 31, 2024 - year 1 of the amended contract, the payout comes to roughly $22.8-million if my math is correct. (based on 65% of remaining salary + retention). the next year it drops to about $18-Million.

in other words, he ain't gettin' fired.
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Thanks for doing the math. More than I thought. In the days of absurd 90% or 100% 8-10 year guaranteed contracts (Rhule, Jimbo) 18-23M may not seem like “much” but I suppose it adds up cumulatively over time and the amounts and contracts may turn off some donors or potential donors if there is a perception of being flippant with other people’s money - because that’s the expedient thing for an athletic director to do. These buyouts…are truly insane. Maybe for a proven all-timer like Saban or even a cheater like Harbaugh but for someone like Jimbo or Rhule man, I don’t know…

Plenty of good coaches out there. David Braun…cheap.
 

There is ZERO support in Gopher Nation for ousting Fleck. I would never consider it for three years.

Fleck is NOT going to lay an egg next season. We are not going to have a repeat of last year.

He earned his extension. Look up the Wacker days. Where he has the team is good. Be competitive with Wisconsin and Iowa. And now play respectable games against the Weat Coast teams. Minnesota is not expected to be Ohio State.

This is big time Big Ten Football. Just be in the mix.

Last year the QB stunk. That will NOT repeat this season.
 



GopherMarroon said:
There is ZERO support in Gopher Nation for ousting Fleck. I would never consider it for three years.
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I would say most of us think Fleck had a very good off-season. IF MN were to go say, 2-7 or 1-8 or 0-9 in conference play that will change perception. Not expecting that, at all. The schedule is tough and is not even as bad as it could be.


GopherMarroon said:
Fleck is NOT going to lay an egg next season. We are not going to have a repeat of last year.
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The team “should” be better but until the injury dust clears and the games get played unfortunately we don’t know.

GopherMarroon said:
He earned his extension. Look up the Wacker days. Where he has the team is good. Be competitive with Wisconsin and Iowa. And now play respectable games against the Weat Coast teams. Minnesota is not expected to be Ohio State.

This is big time Big Ten Football. Just be in the mix.
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I agree, just be competitive. My main concern last year was the team seemed to quit more than once or twice, later in games but my memory is hazy now. Bad sign when that happens.

GopherMarroon said:
Last year the QB stunk. That will NOT repeat this season.
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I’d be shocked and am pretty high on him.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
I agree, just be competitive. My main concern last year was the team seemed to quit more than once or twice, later in games but my memory is hazy now. Bad sign when that happens.
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Pomp - I don't think the team "quit." from what I saw, injuries and lack of depth forced the coaches to put in players - especially in the defensive backfield - who either were not ready to play or lacked the athletic ability to execute what the coaches were asking of them.

there is a difference between quitting and simply being unable to do what is needed/expected.

with the new DC, I will be very interested to see if they tweak some things in the secondary. without Nubin there to bail out less-experienced teammates, they cannot afford to have breakdowns in coverage.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Pomp - I don't think the team "quit." from what I saw, injuries and lack of depth forced the coaches to put in players - especially in the defensive backfield - who either were not ready to play or lacked the athletic ability to execute what the coaches were asking of them.

there is a difference between quitting and simply being unable to do what is needed/expected.

with the new DC, I will be very interested to see if they tweak some things in the secondary. without Nubin there to bail out less-experienced teammates, they cannot afford to have breakdowns in coverage.
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I don’t know, the lack of effort or intensity with things like running to the ball, tackling on defense at times was pretty startling. Something I don’t recall seeing under Fleck teams before.

Maybe I’m misremembering. I’m getting old.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
^

That’s the amount if another school hires Fleck away. If MN fires Fleck he is due 65% of the remaining base, supplemental, and retention bonus left on the six year contract which runs through Dec 31, 2029. Not going to recalculate but IIRC is roughly $18-19M if fired before Jan 1 2025 and you can do the math from there if you look at the numbers in the linked document.

It’s a favorable contract for PJ, for sure. Low buyout for a different school should he outperform but an expensive one for MN should he underperform. I’m not as convinced better positions are knocking on the door right now, sorry.

Page 55 here:
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Thanks for the info :)
 

Pompous Elitist said:
I don’t know, the lack of effort or intensity with things like running to the ball, tackling on defense at times was pretty startling. Something I don’t recall seeing under Fleck teams before.

Maybe I’m misremembering. I’m getting old.
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I think some of that is in the eye of the beholder. We always tend to paint things negatively in the moment when it is going sideways.
 

I like to think I’m pretty fair but yeah, I could be imagining things. I’ll cop to that.
 

Dave H said:
I have not heard one person outside of this message board that ever talk about firing Fleck. The casuals especially...the ones who want every coach fired never even mention it. Beating Wisconsin a couple times and Iowa tends to get people off a coaches back.
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That’s not even close to being true. Is he packing the Bank every game – no, not even close—was last year the worst since Kill’s first year 13 years ago – by far. I don’t think PJ has really generated a lot of excitement throughout Minnesota. We had one great year after that, he’s just another guy so far. He’s kicking ass and winning everything except for game day; the thing that matters the most. For all things game day I’d give him the last two or three years solid D.
 

Gopherchase said:
That’s not even close to being true. Is he packing the Bank every game – no, not even close—was last year the worst since Kill’s first year 13 years ago – by far. I don’t think PJ has really generated a lot of excitement throughout Minnesota. We had one great year after that, he’s just another guy so far. He’s kicking ass and winning everything except for game day; the thing that matters the most. For all things game day I’d give him the last two or three years solid D.
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Go Chase somewhere else! They crushed the attendance in 2023. For the five home games, the Gophers averaged 53,043, with a high of 69,250 vs Iowa. That’s pretty good for a stadium with a capacity of 50,805.

Yes, they disappointed with their record, but we struggled with an underachieving QB and offense, which left the D on the field for longer than they were used too. The D also struggled a bit, especially at LB.

2024 is going to be an interesting season.
 

Gopherchase said:
That’s not even close to being true. Is he packing the Bank every game – no, not even close—was last year the worst since Kill’s first year 13 years ago – by far. I don’t think PJ has really generated a lot of excitement throughout Minnesota. We had one great year after that, he’s just another guy so far. He’s kicking ass and winning everything except for game day; the thing that matters the most. For all things game day I’d give him the last two or three years solid D.
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When I talk to high school/college coaches or people I randomly see wearing Gopher gear in Walmart, I usually ask about PJF and no one has ever said that he has to go.

Most think PJ has done a very good job. Yes, some answer, "Who ya gonna get?" But they follow that with, "I like where the program is heading."
 

Dave H said:
So your take is he would be on the hot seat if he didn't do the things that would keep him off the hot seat?
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The overall point was that I understand why people in the media would think he is on the hot seat due to poor in-game coaching/not living up to expectations and why fans would think he is safe due to the great offseason.
 

BleedGopher said:
Per Ericka:

1. P.J. Fleck​

P.J. Fleck might have already peaked in his time at Minnesota. After winning 11 games in 2019, he has back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2021 and 2022, but then fell hard in 2023 with a 6-7 record. As a coach, you typically want to see the number of wins go up not down.

Unfortunately for Fleck, Minnesota also does not look like they are going to be very competitive in 2024 with the level of competition only getting better with the addition of the four Pac-12 teams. Fleck is probably already feeling his seat heating up with the decline of play by the Golden Gophers in the last few years.

If Minnesota is not bowl-eligible in 2024, fleck could be out of a job by the end of the season due to the decline of play.

So don't worry Badger fans, Luke Fickell isn't on this list, but he needs to take a step forward in 2024 to help with job security and to show he can play in the big leagues of power conferences.

badgerofhonor.com

Big Ten football coaches who are on the hot seat in the 2024 season

The Big Ten is about to have 18 teams which will be vastly different from their 14-team conference that split into two divisions. The conference is adding four
badgerofhonor.com badgerofhonor.com

Go Gophers!!
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These statements contradict each other.

Unless there's some kind of scandal, there's an almost zero chance Fleck is fired after this upcoming season. Another bad season would put him on the hot seat. Ryan Day should be #1 and it isn't close.
 

WAGopher said:
Go Chase somewhere else! They crushed the attendance in 2023. For the five home games, the Gophers averaged 53,043, with a high of 69,250 vs Iowa. That’s pretty good for a stadium with a capacity of 50,805.

Yes, they disappointed with their record, but we struggled with an underachieving QB and offense, which left the D on the field for longer than they were used too. The D also struggled a bit, especially at LB.

2024 is going to be an interesting season.
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Iowa game was in Iowa City. 2023 Minnesota averaged 48,453 according to D1 Ticker.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
Your right it could be debated. I graduated from MN in 1998, and spent a lot of time in Madison with my HS buddies. IMO its a way better college atmosphere and the campus is a lot nicer than MN, but thats my opinion.

Camp Randall is bigger, has a more dedicated fan base, and is the centerpiece of the city on game day. Anyone can debate it and thats cool, its just one mans opinion, but I do think being the only game in town has some advantages.
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Not to take away from your points, which I find legit, but at this point in the pecking order I'd care more about my relationship with my position coach over the differences you cited above.
 

fmlizard said:
One part of this bad take is that so many B1G coaches are Year 1 or Year 2. PJ is now 3rd most tenured (of 18) as a B1G coach with his current program. If the writer assumes all HCs get 3 years that disqualifies a lot of guys who might not make it long term.

Most rankings-of-coaches lists are also heavily biased that the coach with the best record is the best coach and the safest (Ryan Day, not true) and don't adjust for program resources and expectations.

This leaves PJ in a spot as the dean of coaches of teams that didn't make a NYD bowl last year and thus seems vulnerable to a superficial analysis.
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Your reply was far more insightful than the trash you were replying to lol.
 

GopherTheJugular said:
Not to take away from your points, which I find legit, but at this point in the pecking order I'd care more about my relationship with my position coach over the differences you cited above.
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That could be totally accurate. I have never been a college athlete so I have no idea how important that is.
 

highwayman said:
Iowa game was in Iowa City. 2023 Minnesota averaged 48,453 according to D1 Ticker.
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Dang, I used Wikipedia and not my brain. I thought they were listing green home and red away when it was green won and red lost. I’ll go with your stats, which are still historically good for the Gophers. Not the empty house Chaser was implying.
 

WAGopher said:
Go Chase somewhere else! They crushed the attendance in 2023. For the five home games, the Gophers averaged 53,043, with a high of 69,250 vs Iowa. That’s pretty good for a stadium with a capacity of 50,805.

Yes, they disappointed with their record, but we struggled with an underachieving QB and offense, which left the D on the field for longer than they were used too. The D also struggled a bit, especially at LB.

2024 is going to be an interesting season.
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You can’t get close to 69k in the bank. I think you have your numbers incorrect
 

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