Ben Johnson Reasonable Expectations

Should have added that i am optimistic. They are building a foundation based on character and value first.

And while I agree with this approach, you do that with young players. Instead they did it with a bunch of low level Senior transfers who won't be on the team next season.

So whatever foundation was built for this last place team last season, will now have to be completely rebuilt with almost an entirely new roster this season. That has never made sense to me.
 

And while I agree with this approach, you do that with young players. Instead they did it with a bunch of low level Senior transfers who won't be on the team next season.

So whatever foundation was built for this last place team last season, will now have to be completely rebuilt with almost an entirely new roster this season. That has never made sense to me.
What young players were available in Mid March and April for them to build with? Was it not valuable for Battle, Fox, TT, Theim, and the walk ons? I strongly disagree that it has to start with young players. In fact I’d argue it’s harder and not as smart to do so with a whole roster of younger more immature guys. It’s more important imo to build it in chunks. We have the chunk returning next year that will build it with 3-4 transfers and our 4 freshman. Then you add 3-4 more freshman the year after that. There will always be transfers, but eventually you get to the point where you are taking one or two for a specified or vacated role
 

I don't totally disagree but I don't think going deep into the bench is as key as you think it is.

Just Yesterday in terms of significant minutes
North Carolina played 7
Villanova played 7
Providence played 7
Kansas played 7
Miami basically went with 6

You don't have to go deep if you have the right mix of talent. Our problem this year was that our front court was decimated by injuries so our roster balance was all messed up.

I agree 100% with the last sentence except I still believe that Ben was somewhat negligent in his front court recruiting in 2021; the horrible front court situation could have been alleviated somewhat. Hope he doesn't make that same mistake this year and recruits one more quality player for that portion of the lineup.

As far as those short rotations, those are post-season rotations. College teams, like pro teams, tend to shorten their lineups in the post season. You mentioned UNC, so here's the differential between their starters' minutes in the UCLA game and their starters' average minutes per game during the regular season:

UCLA GAMEREG SEASONDifferential
STARTERSMINUTESAVG MINUTES
A. BacotF
31​
31​
0​
B. ManekF
38​
30​
8​
R.J. DavisG
37​
34​
3​
C. LoveG
40​
34​
6​
L. BlackG
39​
29​
10​
Total Diff
27​

Except for Bacot, UNC's starters all played more minutes than their normal regular season average in the UCLA game. If you have the UCLA game kind of starter minutes over an entire season, that begins to take its toll after awhile.



 

I don't totally disagree but I don't think going deep into the bench is as key as you think it is.

Just Yesterday in terms of significant minutes
North Carolina played 7
Villanova played 7
Providence played 7
Kansas played 7
Miami basically went with 6

You don't have to go deep if you have the right mix of talent. Our problem this year was that our front court was decimated by injuries so our roster balance was all messed up.

Obviously we aren't going to draw the same level of talent as some of those blue bloods but to me 8 regulars with a couple fill in guys is an ideal setup for basketball. Have said it before, I would loved to have seen what this current Gopher team could have done at full strength. We were competitive in so many games in spite of no depth and very little size.

Will be interesting to see what this team looks like heading into 22-23 and I am hopeful that we get to see whatever roster BJ assembles at full strength.
Different coaches have different philosophies....not saying there is only one way. But, if a recruit has a choice Minnesota or Miami, North Carolina, Kansas, Villanova, ....they are probably not choosing us. So those schools more easily get a higher rated candidate. Therefore those guys play more minutes. Just how they do it.

I'm saying the schools playing 10 guys don't have the luxury of getting the higher rated guys.
They do it with guys like Ben had in his first 6...but you need 12 of them, so when 2 get hurt you still have 10. They become a team, they have guys available to step up and carry a bigger load because they have been playing.
Pitino did the 6 or 7 thing and was consistently in the Top 25....we just always lost guys and were left with shambles. Recruiting 12, playing 10 allows you to weather these injuries or losses. Play 6 or 7...you gotta be lucky Pitino and Ben have not been.
 

PRESENTLY THERE ARE IN MY OPINION AT LEAST 40 BETTER OPPORTUNITIES.

By objective standards, yes, at least that many. 40 is a modest estimate. I'd give a ball park estimate of 80% of the P6 programs and possibly a dozen or more of the non-P6 programs.
 
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Different coaches have different philosophies....not saying there is only one way. But, if a recruit has a choice Minnesota or Miami, North Carolina, Kansas, Villanova, ....they are probably not choosing us. So those schools more easily get a higher rated candidate. Therefore those guys play more minutes. Just how they do it.

It's simpler than that. Those rotations he gave are post-season rotations (and not just any post-season rotations - those are regional semifinal rotations).
 

What young players were available in Mid March and April for them to build with? Was it not valuable for Battle, Fox, TT, Theim, and the walk ons? I strongly disagree that it has to start with young players. In fact I’d argue it’s harder and not as smart to do so with a whole roster of younger more immature guys. It’s more important imo to build it in chunks. We have the chunk returning next year that will build it with 3-4 transfers and our 4 freshman. Then you add 3-4 more freshman the year after that. There will always be transfers, but eventually you get to the point where you are taking one or two for a specified or vacated role

Battle and Fox were good takes because they have multiple years of eligibility. TT has a chance to develop, but I think Thiam and the walk ons are unlikely to contribute to a winning team. I would have rather seen them take guys with multiple years of eligibility, over Daniels, Ogele, even Sutherlin. They don't even necessarily have to be young, and could be SO/JRs like Battle/Fox.

You're making my point for me stating there will be 3-4 transfers and 4 freshman. That's 2/3s of the team being new and having nothing to do with this years 'culture building'.
 

Different coaches have different philosophies....not saying there is only one way. But, if a recruit has a choice Minnesota or Miami, North Carolina, Kansas, Villanova, ....they are probably not choosing us. So those schools more easily get a higher rated candidate. Therefore those guys play more minutes. Just how they do it.

I'm saying the schools playing 10 guys don't have the luxury of getting the higher rated guys.
They do it with guys like Ben had in his first 6...but you need 12 of them, so when 2 get hurt you still have 10. They become a team, they have guys available to step up and carry a bigger load because they have been playing.
Pitino did the 6 or 7 thing and was consistently in the Top 25....we just always lost guys and were left with shambles. Recruiting 12, playing 10 allows you to weather these injuries or losses. Play 6 or 7...you gotta be lucky Pitino and Ben have not been.
Looking at the record month by month season by season we were note top consistently. All programs suffer injuries etc.. We consistently mediocre no matter how i look at it.
 

PRESENTLY THERE ARE IN MY OPINION AT LEAST 40 BETTER OPPORTUNITIES. But you can out scout people for prospects, out work them , develop them better. Fit is so important. ONE kid and or his parents may prefer a college campus environment. Many are conservative, many are brand driven. These are really tough jobs. But when you hire the right guy [THEY ARE VERY RARE) Then you can achieve sustainable success. That has never been done here.
40 leaves about 300 that are not better opportunities. I don't think the lack of availability of talent is the problem. It's philosophy, it's culture, it's diligence, it's discipline...in short it's coaching.
You need 12 guys you can't be afraid to give minutes to....those right fits are out there....you just have to blend them together with the intention of playing 9 or 10 of them. You will get burned with 6 or 7. LOTS of coaches want to play 7. Great until your best guy or one of the higher scorers gets hurt.
I just know there isn't one way and I know lots of lesser brand names are successful playing 10 guys. Wisconsin had no depth and was fortunate with missed player time until the end when they looked woeful. Often Wisconsin has stayed healthy...Minnesota loses people to injury and circumstance consistently. The 6 or 7 philosophy is always wait until next year here because of losing players.
 



Looking at the record month by month season by season we were note top consistently. All programs suffer injuries etc.. We consistently mediocre no matter how i look at it.
Consistently mediocre by season, totally agree. But Top 25 in many seasons for at least a few weeks. The potential was often there. Beat Louisville and Matz, who was playing well and Coffey are not available for the next game. Lose Reggie after being highly rated. Lose a lot of guys after starting strong in the last season. It was often.

Again as I said earlier, Wisconsin was mediocre to close the season this year...they were fortunate to stay heathy until the end. "All programs suffer injuries"...why didn't Wisconsin still win? They lost 3 of their last 4 games. Injuries are a factor and not everybody has them to significant players.
 

Consistently mediocre by season, totally agree. But Top 25 in many seasons for at least a few weeks. The potential was often there. Beat Louisville and Matz, who was playing well and Coffey are not available for the next game. Lose Reggie after being highly rated. Lose a lot of guys after starting strong in the last season. It was often.

Again as I said earlier, Wisconsin was mediocre to close the season this year...they were fortunate to stay heathy until the end. "All programs suffer injuries"...why didn't Wisconsin still win? They lost 3 of their last 4 games. Injuries are a factor and not everybody has them to significant players.
UW lost Davis to a earlier injury, still won the Big 10. I DID NOT MENTION THEM SPECIFICALLY. All programs lose players for injuries and other circumstances. They have developed players better than we have. Pitino was a terrible coach. Pull his record in the conference, pull it against top 25 when he had healthy players and you will find healthy results. Do ther circumstances include Lynch ? He created that by recruiting a bad character. Everyone wants more good players. Hard to find 5 much less 9 or 10. Coaches are the overwhelming factor and no one on the planet thinks we have had anywhere close to great coaches. Mediocre.
 

Battle and Fox were good takes because they have multiple years of eligibility. TT has a chance to develop, but I think Thiam and the walk ons are unlikely to contribute to a winning team. I would have rather seen them take guys with multiple years of eligibility, over Daniels, Ogele, even Sutherlin. They don't even necessarily have to be young, and could be SO/JRs like Battle/Fox.

You're making my point for me stating there will be 3-4 transfers and 4 freshman. That's 2/3s of the team being new and having nothing to do with this years 'culture building'.
My response was to your response about building a team culture based on character and value. There were no more young guys to go get was my point and if there were any that were interested (Battle, Fox, and Garcia), the staff tried to get them too. My other point is that contributing on the court isn’t the only way to contribute to building a strong culture on the team. All those guys returning will lead the incoming players and show them “how we do things here”. We just fundamentally disagree on the way you can build a strong foundation.
 

My response was to your response about building a team culture based on character and value. There were no more young guys to go get was my point and if there were any that were interested (Battle, Fox, and Garcia), the staff tried to get them too. My other point is that contributing on the court isn’t the only way to contribute to building a strong culture on the team. All those guys returning will lead the incoming players and show them “how we do things here”. We just fundamentally disagree on the way you can build a strong foundation.

No more guys with more than one year of eligibility in March and April? Zero? That's just not true.

All of those guys returning? It's only a few, and there will be 4 new starters next season. Walk-ons don't hold much weight in the locker room against guys who are significantly better than them.
 



I recall the recruiting in Spring and Summer looked embarrassingly quiet. Until I see different I expect this every year.
 

No more guys with more than one year of eligibility in March and April? Zero? That's just not true.

All of those guys returning? It's only a few, and there will be 4 new starters next season. Walk-ons don't hold much weight in the locker room against guys who are significantly better than them.
Not any multiple year guys who said yes. This year they have mor staff members and will know if they fit. Otherwise you take one year guys so you have more time to find guys who fit correctly. The staff could’ve taken some more chances, but made a specific point to not do that. I appreciate they refused to compromise on character. Also I’ll be shocked if we don’t end up with 2-3 or our 3-4 transfers this year being one year guys again.

Of course the walk ons won’t be leaders most likely, but they still matter in terms of culture and accountability. If Ramberg is out working Carrington in practice, the leaders and staff will let him know. Battle, Fox, Ihnen, and TT will carry plenty of the “this is how we do things here” in a positive way. Walk ons who also follow them make the other outliers if they try not too. It’s a simple strength in numbers and togetherness.
 

Watching Arkansas and Iowa State play in the tournament has gotten me thinking about a question that I think will be really hard to answer in regards to Ben Johnson because of COVID, transfer portal and the state of the program he inherited.

I am in the camp that it isn't wise to judge him over the results of this year. He walked into a uniquely difficult position due to COVID year mixed with transfer portal and the ramifications of those departures will probably ripple for a couple of years. I'm not making excuses for him but I also don't want to move on from a coach prematurely over something completely outside of his control. I also believe that excitement can be generated around a program before it shows up in the W/L department (Fleck's 6-6 2018 team showed some of that).

So here is where I stand on when we should realistically be expecting results (W/L column) from Ben Johnson.

Year 1: All I cared about was the system and recruiting. For me, I liked the way we played and I'm pumped up about the recruits we have coming in.
Year 2: I expect recruiting to keep progressing forward. I expect much better portal players and if we finish lower than 10th in the Big 10, Ben Johnson's seat should increase a couple degrees (maybe luke warm).
Year 3: If we finish lower than 10th, Ben Johnson's seat should be really warm/hot.
Year 4: If we are bad again, he should be fired. If we are improved, but don't make the tourney, his seat should be warm.
Year 5: Tournament or bust.

If he makes the tournament or finishes over .500 in the Big 10 in any of the first years, that throws this all out and we'd be starting with a new set of expectations.

Is this fair? Is it "too fair"? How do yours differ?
It's a brave new world. Johnson has shown the world his system. Any guard or combo guard should be thrilled about the opportunity to step in and replace Peyton Willis. He absolutely thrived in Johnson's offense. Eric Curry managed to put up numbers in this system. Any 5 should be thrilled at the opportunity to play in this offense. With the transfer portal, you shouldn't be waiting 5 years for production. I am with the others. Now that transfers can look at the tape and imagine their role in a Big Ten team, I expect Johnson to draw superior talent than the transfers we lured last year on faith that Johnson knew how to coach. Now we get to see what kind of a salesman Ben Johnson is. I, for one, think he is going to kill it. We need someone capable of replacing Willis, and a rebounder.

Personally, I will judge Johnson's Year 2 success based on improvement in rebounding and the second chance points that we never got in Year 1. NOTE: we were #358 out of 360 D1 teams in terms of offensive rebounding percentages (kenpom.com). Brutal. On the plus side, Johnson's team rarely gave up transition points and finished top 10 in the country in offensive turnovers (kenpom.com), so I understand Johnson's rationale. Ball security, getting back on defense, Johnson compensated for lack of length and athleticism. They were routinely in the game with 5 minutes to go. If we can find someone to complement Ihnen & Fox, and think those second chance points will come and Johnson's crew will win some ball games.
 

I like Bob's timeline.

I think it is fair - considering all of the variables now in college sports.

Sure, a team can turn around in a hurry by bringing in exceptional talent. But again, this is the MN Gopher Men's basketball program we are talking about. A program that, in the last 25 years, has had 3 seasons with a winning record in B1G play and 3 seasons with a .500 record - meaning 19 of 25 years with a losing record in B1G play.

Considering that history, I think you have to be realistic.

A top-50 player like Holmgren or Suggs is not coming to MN. They are going to one of the "1-and-done" factories where they have a legitimate chance to win a nat'l title before jumping to the NBA.

Ben Johnson is going to have to build this program with solid - but not exceptional - players.

I could see the Gophs being an NIT team next year IF everything breaks right, and making the NCAA tournament as a low seed in year 3.

But, if that doesn't happen, I am not going to be screaming for Johnson to be fired.
I agree with a number of your points. Coaching matters. Wisconsin does not get "exceptional" talents to commit to Wisconsin. It's the system that allows the players to thrive. In Year 1, I saw all the evidence in the world that "good" talent will produce very good results with Johnson and Thorson in charge. I saw a system that can and I predict will win in the Big 10 if Johnson has time to coach them up.

Think back to when the Gophers were 11-1. Entirely new roster. That's not easy to do with that kind of turnover, but he had them playing cohesively right out of the gates. That's all the evidence I need that Thorson and Johnson can coach them up. We just need a couple more true believers to buy in.
 

History shows us that winning at Minnesota takes time (and often cheating). Clem is the last coach to have the program competitive. That was 20 years ago. 😱🤯

It is unrealistic to think a first time head coach is going to leap frog the coaching pedigree in the B1G and move quickly to the top. Whether we like it or not, UMN is not a dream destination for any basketball player who wasn't raised in maroon and gold. This program will only move up through a sustained process that is going to take time. No shortcuts for this program. This is not what people here will want to believe or hear, but I think it's the only way to go with this particular program (unless you want to cheat again).
Ben Johnson has a plan for process and he has the patient personality to see the process to fulfillment. He is a rare coach in this regard. Pitino was always looking for a quick fix and either hit or missed. Johnson is going to be particular regarding who he wants and how it fits to plan. I am excited to see this plan worked out to completion. That completion is likely a 5 year plan at minimum. (Sorry to all you impatient folks.)
Exactly. And again, the obvious parallel is Wisconsin. Mediocre talent, but routinely fantastic results. If you're a Gopher fan, you have to look at what Johnson and Thorson rolled out there in 2021-22 and think...The future is bright. The system is there, just need a couple more transfers to buy in and get those freshmen ready to contribute.
 

Exactly. And again, the obvious parallel is Wisconsin. Mediocre talent, but routinely fantastic results. If you're a Gopher fan, you have to look at what Johnson and Thorson rolled out there in 2021-22 and think...The future is bright. The system is there, just need a couple more transfers to buy in and get those freshmen ready to contribute.
Agree 100%. The base is there. Ben and staff laid the foundation. All interested transfers understand culture is the most important thing, and they will make their decision based on that. And I believe there are a lot of players in the portal and high school recruits that want that exact thing in their lives. Young kids that want support. I think that's a lot why PJ succeeds without the highest rated classes.
I'm very excited by this incoming recruiting class. I am guaranteeing big success soon. I'm not saying BIG champs, or elite 8s, but something to be excited about.
I'm very happy Ben is the coach and leader of the program. There was a lot of proof of what this staff can do without michigan state's lineup. Very close in a lot of games. For the 1st year, I love it.
 

Exactly. And again, the obvious parallel is Wisconsin. Mediocre talent, but routinely fantastic results. If you're a Gopher fan, you have to look at what Johnson and Thorson rolled out there in 2021-22 and think...The future is bright. The system is there, just need a couple more transfers to buy in and get those freshmen ready to contribute.
Mn took last. Mn took last
 

I will add a few things on this, but to be clear, your main point is the class has to be better and I fully agree.
The staff would not compromise on who they took last year. Being a good basketball player was obviously important, but if you didn’t fit what he wanted culturally, you weren’t offered. El Amin is an example. He could’ve given us some pretty valuable minutes off the bench, but it wasn’t the right fit for either side. That’s how we ended up taking Daniels. He fit the culture they want to build. I think the staff obviously expected another center and for Daniels to be used as more of a 3rd center, but it happens sometimes when that much turnover happens. Ogele was a late add and a body after Ihnen tore his ACL. Not excuses cause the staff made their bed this year and would not compromise. This year they will only need to add 4 and have the whole staff in place. I don’t see how the roster cannot be better honestly.
100%.. I don't blame them for the people they added, I was merely pointing out that talent needs to be better (as a whole) for us to improve. But I really don't blame Ben, at all, for the talent he brought in last year.
 

Most lawyers know how to read and discern. Not you though.
Don't align yourself with the biggest losers of this board and feel the need to bring up my profession every time you disagree with me. It makes you look bitter and pathetic. It also makes you look intimidated by someone's profession (like short guys constantly bringing up height). It's a bad look.

But back to basketball. You could have taken the time to point out what point of yours I missed. I said that I expect much better portal players from Ben in year 2. You replied to that post to say that you think Ben brought in some good players.

Clearly, my reply to your post was that when you look at the crop of transfer players, ON THE WHOLE, they were substandard (for the reasons I listed). We couldn't even use them all (unheard of) and used two of them on players who should never have been on a Big 10 roster.

It's kind of like saying that recruiting needed to improve after Jerry Kill. That's true despite the fact that Eric Murray, Hageman, Campbell and Wilson were very good football players. On the whole, we weren't bringing in enough talent.

Similar to Ben in the transfer portal. He landed some good players (as you pointed out and I FULLY comprehended) but on the whole he clearly didn't bring in enough talent.

What am I failing to discern?
 

This staff does not need a bunch of guys returning to continue the growth of the culture and the building of the foundation. They have a much earlier start in the continued relation ship building. They already stand for something that was never done before. That high character and hard work is a requirement every single day.
 


This staff does not need a bunch of guys returning to continue the growth of the culture and the building of the foundation. They have a much earlier start in the continued relation ship building. They already stand for something that was never done before. That high character and hard work is a requirement every single day.
Preach it Built.
 

This staff does not need a bunch of guys returning to continue the growth of the culture and the building of the foundation. They have a much earlier start in the continued relation ship building. They already stand for something that was never done before. That high character and hard work is a requirement every single day.
When do you think it's fair to expect those intangible things to lead to more wins? I'm not disagreeing with your take, I'm genuinely curious.
 

This staff does not need a bunch of guys returning to continue the growth of the culture and the building of the foundation. They have a much earlier start in the continued relation ship building. They already stand for something that was never done before. That high character and hard work is a requirement every single day.
What record do you expect from this staff by year 3?
 

This staff does not need a bunch of guys returning to continue the growth of the culture and the building of the foundation. They have a much earlier start in the continued relation ship building. They already stand for something that was never done before. That high character and hard work is a requirement every single day.

Never been done before? Dan Monson never required high character and hard work? Tubby didn't either? Pitino never did?

I thought part of this culture was going to be about playing defense? Ken Pom had Ben Johnson's defense rated 100 spots lower this season than last year's 13th place Richard Pitino squad.
 
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Preach it Built.
Just my opinion based on how i have seen other mediocre programs built to sustainability success. Elite success. UW failed miserably forever until they finally hired the right AD to hire the right coaches. Other programs that could not compete with the brand schools in recruiting found another way. Character, hard work, better scouting, better coaching, better development goes a long way. It takes time if you have been garbage for a long time.
 

Never been done before? Dan Monson never required high character and hard work? Tubby didn't either? Pitino never did?

I thought part of this culture was going to be about playing defense? Ken Pom had Ben Johnson's defense rated 100 spots lower this season than last year's 13th place Richard Pitino squad.
Understood. Ben had a few months to get his guys. Richard had 8 years and had bad characters, bad defense, no identity. If by the end of year 3 we do not see better defense and a near .500 conference record then we have a problem. We had decades of poor fundamentals, bad characters. I already see strong fundamentals, non negotiables.
 




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