Busy week planned so I'm doing my breakdown for PUR on this board. In-game not yet available. PUR currently -19.5 and expected score 83-64.
Garcia needs to play at 100% if MN wants a chance to win at PUR. Duh. Purdue does a lot of things very well, and I've spent the morning looking for chinks in the armor. The bad news for MN is that PUR is #1 in BTN conf. in the following metrics:
--Offensive rebounding
--Free Throw Rate, getting to the line 44.1%
--Shot blocks (5.8/game)
--Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (128.4!)
--Effective FG % (55.4%)
--TGame Rating, based on multiple analytics (93.4 average, w/o NEB loss ave. 96.4)
Whew. In efforts to build some hope for MN, the following relates to the Boilers closest games, losses, and recent form.
--Purdue is the worst team in BTN at forcing turnovers, so MN shouldn't have TO's
--In their 5 close games and losses (NW, ALA, ILL, NEB, NW) those opponents shot 48% from behind the arc (65-135).
--NEB was 14-23 (61%) from 3, EFG% 63.2%, and NW EFG%=68.2%.
--In Purdue's last 7 games, they have jacked 138 3's while shooting 37% which is good, but Wisconsin and Rutgers held them to 3-11, 5-19 respectively. In that span of last 7 games, MN has only allowed 117 threes with teams making 35%.
--MN has a conf. TGame Rating average of 70, but in the last 4 games have an 87.5 rating, which approaches PUR season ave of 93.4.
--PUR defense has shown they can take nights off, and they allow a VERY high opponent FG% near the basket-63% for the season. (MN 52.5% allowed in that category).
--MN is solid shooting and defending 2PFGs, and the Gopher EFG% (54.4%), EFG%D (47.6%) are superior for their #82 TRank as a team.
MN needs to play the game of the year on both sides of the ball for 40 minutes, unless PUR plays worse than their previous 8 games. Study films of NW/NEB games.
Think Christmas Day, 2020 beating #4 Iowa, or Feb. 26, 2013 taking down #1 Indiana.